Cotton — COT Positioning Report (Week Ended October 2, 2026)

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Cotton (CT) for the week ending October 2, 2026, shows a continued reduction in Managed Money net length, falling by 8,345 contracts to +67,837 contracts. Speculative liquidation was driven by a combination of long profit-taking (-4,532 contracts) and fresh short accumulation (+3,813 contracts).

Total open interest grew by 5,478 contracts to 389,494 contracts, establishing a new peak within the tracked multi-month dataset. Commercial participants stepped in aggressively on the long side, with Producer/Merchants adding 13,074 long contracts against 6,577 short additions, paring their net short position to 148,114 contracts.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: Held a net long position of 67,837 contracts (84,353 longs vs. 16,516 shorts), with an additional 46,823 contracts in spreading. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline in net length since peaking at +100,963 contracts on September 4, 2026. Despite the pullback, managed funds remain solidly net long compared to early 2026, when positioning was heavily net short (reaching a low of -80,705 contracts on February 20, 2026).
• Producer/Merchant: Net short position stood at -148,114 contracts (78,815 longs vs. 226,929 shorts). Net short exposure contracted from -154,611 contracts the previous week and -178,611 contracts on September 4, 2026.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a net long stance of +43,673 contracts (67,599 longs vs. 23,926 shorts), with 18,522 contracts in spreading.
• Other Reportables: Net long +28,776 contracts (48,286 longs vs. 19,510 shorts).
• Nonreportable (Small Traders): Net long +7,828 contracts (16,746 longs vs. 8,918 shorts).

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Flows and week-over-week changes

Category	Longs	WoW Change	Shorts	WoW Change	Spreading	WoW Change	Net Position	Net WoW Change
Managed Money	84,353	-4,532	16,516	+3,813	46,823	+1,762	+67,837	-8,345
Producer/Merchant	78,815	+13,074	226,929	+6,577	—	—	-148,114	+6,497
Swap Dealers	67,599	-496	23,926	-2,368	18,522	+1,398	+43,673	+1,872
Other Reportables	48,286	-1,127	19,510	-3,057	28,350	-3,646	+28,776	+1,930
Nonreportable	16,746	-955	8,918	+999	—	—	+7,828	-1,954

Managed money flows reflected a defensive posture, as gross long exposure dropped to 84,353 contracts (from 88,885 the prior week and a high of 115,804 on September 4). Conversely, commercial buyers absorbed supply, adding 13,074 gross longs.

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Commercials vs speculators

• Speculative Dynamics: Managed Money gross longs account for 21.7% of total open interest, while gross shorts represent just 4.2%. Over the last four reporting cycles, speculative length has unwound by 31,451 contracts (-27.2% from gross long peak), though net positioning remains positive. Spreading activity by funds rose to 46,823 contracts (12.0% of OI), pointing to curve repositioning.
• Commercial Hedging: Producer/Merchants remain the dominant short cohort, holding 58.3% of total open interest short (226,929 contracts). However, commercial buyers demonstrated substantial buying interest, lifting gross longs to 78,815 contracts (20.2% of OI), up from 65,741 contracts the prior week.

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Open interest and participation

• Aggregate Open Interest: Rose by 5,478 contracts (+1.42%) to 389,494 contracts, the highest level recorded in the historical series provided (up from 297,995 contracts in late December 2025).
• Trader Breadth: Total active reporting entities stood at 357.
  • Managed Money long participants fell from 90 to 86, while short participants expanded from 29 to 35.
  • Commercial merchant participants totaled 45 on the long side and 52 on the short side.
• Concentration: The 4 largest traders accounted for 23.4% of the net short open interest (28.7% gross short), while the 8 largest traders controlled 30.9% net short (41.1% gross short). Long concentration remained relatively diversified, with the top 4 net longs holding 8.5% and the top 8 holding 14.2%.

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Price context

Note: Daily price series quotes were not provided in the reporting feed for this period.

Without direct pricing quotes, price action must be inferred through positioning velocity: the rapid build of speculative length through August into early September, followed by a month of managed money long shedding and short additions into record-high open interest, suggests market consolidation or corrective pressure following a late-summer trend.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Long Overhang: While Managed Money has cut net length from +100.9k to +67.8k contracts over four weeks, gross long exposure remains elevated at 84,353 contracts. If broader agricultural sentiment weakens, further long liquidation remains a downside risk.
• Commercial Support vs. Hedging Pressure: Commercial participants showed strong appetite on the long side (+13,074 contracts), yet commercial gross short exposure remains heavy at 226,929 contracts. A slowdown in commercial buying could expose the market if speculative selling accelerates.
• Record Open Interest: Elevated open interest (389,494 contracts) alongside rising Managed Money gross shorts (+3,813 contracts, up from 12,323 in mid-September) indicates fresh capital entering the market, elevating potential volatility on breakout moves.