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Cocoa COT — Week of October 2, 2026

Cocoa (CC) COT Report — Week Ended October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for ICE Cocoa futures as of October 2, 2026, shows managed money maintaining an entrenched net short stance of -16,022 contracts, steadying after a sharp bearish rotation the week prior. Commercial hedgers (producers and merchants) slightly reduced their net short posture to -13,483 contracts as short covering offset modest long liquidations. Total open interest expanded by 4,924 contracts to 183,888, largely fueled by a significant jump in speculative spreading activity (+5,887 contracts). Swap dealers remain the dominant net long cohort in the market at +26,289 contracts.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Positioning across primary categories as of October 2, 2026:

  • Managed Money: Net short -16,022 contracts (18,590 long vs. 34,612 short), representing 10.1% of open interest on the long side and 18.8% on the short side.
    • Context vs. History: Net positioning sits near the lower quartile of its year-to-date range. It remains well below the neutral-to-slight net long levels seen in early 2026 (+141 contracts on January 9, 2026, and -4,750 contracts on September 4, 2026), though above the extreme net short trough reached on June 12, 2026 (-23,084 contracts).
  • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: Net short -13,483 contracts (51,466 long vs. 64,949 short), accounting for 28.0% of long open interest and 35.3% of short open interest.
    • Context vs. History: Net short exposure remains relatively restrained compared to late Spring 2026, when commercial net shorts regularly exceeded -26,000 contracts (e.g., -27,443 contracts on May 22, 2026).
  • Swap Dealers: Net long +26,289 contracts (35,968 long vs. 9,679 short).
    • Context vs. History: Swap dealers have moderated their net long stance down from summer highs of over +45,000 contracts (e.g., +45,103 contracts on June 12, 2026), but continue to provide the primary long counterweight to managed money and commercial short hedging.
  • Other Reportables: Net long +1,903 contracts (11,870 long vs. 9,967 short).
  • Nonreportable (Small Traders): Net long +1,313 contracts (10,433 long vs. 9,120 short).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total market open interest increased by +4,924 contracts (+2.75%) from 178,964 to 183,888.

  • Managed Money: Added +1,075 long contracts and +691 short contracts, yielding a net weekly flow of +384 contracts toward the long side. However, the most pronounced flow was in calendar spreading, which surged by +5,887 contracts to 29,155 contracts (15.9% of total open interest).
  • Producer/Merchant: Trimmed -67 longs and covered -1,065 shorts, resulting in a net weekly change of +998 contracts (net short reduction).
  • Swap Dealers: Cut -749 longs and added +718 shorts, reducing their net long posture by -1,467 contracts. Spreading positions fell by -322 contracts.
  • Other Reportables: Added +861 longs and +314 shorts (net +547 contracts), with spreading down -919 contracts.
  • Nonreportables: Reduced longs by -842 contracts and shorts by -380 contracts (net -462 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

The structural balance of the market highlights distinct counterparty dynamics:

+---------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
| Category            | Gross Long        | Gross Short       | Net Position      |
+---------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
| Producer/Merchant   | 51,466 (28.0%)    | 64,949 (35.3%)    | -13,483           |
| Managed Money       | 18,590 (10.1%)    | 34,612 (18.8%)    | -16,022           |
| Swap Dealers        | 35,968 (19.6%)    |  9,679 (5.3%)     | +26,289           |
| Other Reportables   | 11,870 (6.5%)     |  9,967 (5.4%)     |  +1,903           |
| Nonreportable       | 10,433 (5.7%)     |  9,120 (5.0%)     |  +1,313           |
+---------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+
  • Speculative Bias: Managed money remains heavily skewed to the short side, holding 1.86 short contracts for every 1 long contract. Outright long exposure (18,590 contracts) remains near the lower end of the year's range, reflecting hesitant directional buying interest.
  • Commercial Behavior: Commercial hedgers retain their typical net short alignment, but gross long positions (51,466 contracts) remain relatively elevated compared to early 2026 levels (e.g., ~35,000–37,000 contracts in January 2026), pointing to ongoing physical buying or consumer inventory hedging.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Stood at 183,888 contracts, recovering from the late-August seasonal dip of 172,846 contracts, but remaining well below the June peak of 205,076 contracts.
  • Trader Count Breadth: A total of 204 reportable traders were active in the market (up from 197 in the prior week).
    • Managed money participants comprised 41 long traders, 46 short traders, and 50 spreading traders.
    • Commercial participation included 33 long producers/merchants and 26 short producers/merchants.
  • Concentration Ratios:
    • Top 4 Traders: Accounted for 17.3% of net long open interest and 11.1% of net short open interest (gross: 19.9% long, 13.0% short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Accounted for 26.6% of net long open interest and 19.9% of net short open interest (gross: 30.3% long, 24.0% short).
    • The market exhibits moderate concentration, with long exposure notably more concentrated among the largest holders (primarily swap dealers and large trade houses) than the short side.

Price context (only using provided series)

  • Price Data Availability: Direct daily close price series data was omitted or unavailable in the provided reporting feed for front-month Cocoa futures. Consequently, a quantitative correlation between positioning shifts and specific price breakout levels cannot be computed from the provided data.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Short-Covering Vulnerability: With managed money holding 34,612 gross short contracts across 46 entities, any fundamental disruption or upside supply shock could trigger an aggressive short-covering squeeze, especially given that swap dealer short positions remain limited (only 9,679 contracts).
  • Surging Spreading Activity: The sharp +5,887 contract expansion in managed money spreading (bringing total spreading to 29,155 contracts) points to elevated curve trading or roll activity across contract expiries, signaling that funds are trading term-structure differentials heavily.
  • Commercial Flow Deceleration: Producers and merchants covered 1,065 short contracts this week. Continued contraction of commercial short hedging could signal a lull in origin forward sales or tightening physical availability.