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Cocoa COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Cocoa Futures COT Report — Week Ending September 25, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Commitments of Traders report for Cocoa (CC) for the week ending September 25, 2026, highlighted a significant bearish repositioning among speculative accounts:

  • Managed Money De-risking & Short Building: Managed Money net positioning deteriorated sharply by 6,867 contracts week-over-week, moving deeper into net short territory at -16,406 contracts (from -9,539 contracts the previous week). This was driven primarily by an aggressive liquidation of long positions (-5,145 contracts) alongside new short building (+1,722 contracts).
  • Speculative Gross Longs Hit New Lows: Gross Managed Money longs dropped to 17,515 contracts, the lowest level recorded across the multi-month lookback period.
  • Commercial Absorption: Commercial Producer/Merchant participants moved strongly in the opposite direction, narrowing their aggregate net short position by 9,259 contracts to -14,481 contracts, supported by 4,272 new longs and 4,987 short liquidations.
  • Open Interest Contraction: Total open interest declined by 3,727 contracts to 178,964 contracts, signaling that spec long capitulation and commercial short-covering drove net positioning rather than an outright wave of fresh market-wide expansion.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position Prior Week Net 52-Wk / Recent Range Context
Managed Money 17,515 33,921 23,268 -16,406 -9,539 Deepest net short since late June 2026 (-18,099 to -23,084)
Producer/Merchant 51,533 66,014 — -14,481 -23,740 Narrowest commercial net short in the entire lookback window
Swap Dealers 36,717 8,961 11,771 +27,756 +27,137 Near upper boundary of recent net long range
Other Reportables 11,009 9,653 15,876 +1,356 +2,601 Moderately positive, down from spring highs (+6.9k)
Non-Reportable 11,275 9,500 — +1,775 +3,541 Modest net long

Historical Positioning Context

  • Managed Money: After recovering from summer lows of -23,084 contracts (June 12, 2026) to a mild net short of -4,670 contracts (August 7, 2026), speculative sentiment has resumed a persistent downward trajectory. Gross longs at 17,515 represent a cycle low, down substantially from spring highs of 31,673 contracts (March 6, 2026).
  • Commercial Producers: The Producer/Merchant net short position of -14,481 contracts is exceptionally small compared to historical norms, which saw commercial net shorts exceed -40,000 contracts during peak hedging cycles in May–July 2026.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Managed Money Flows:
  Longs:       -5,145  [████████████████ Liquidation]
  Shorts:      +1,722  [█████            New Shorts]
  Spreading:   -3,202  [██████████       Unwinding]
  Net Shift:   -6,867 contracts

Producer/Merchant Flows:
  Longs:       +4,272  [█████████████    New Commercial Buying]
  Shorts:      -4,987  [███████████████  Short Covering]
  Net Shift:   +9,259 contracts

Breakdown of Weekly Net Changes

  • Managed Money: Total gross positions shifted from 22,660 long / 32,199 short / 26,470 spreading to 17,515 long / 33,921 short / 23,268 spreading. Outright speculative length dropped by 22.7% in a single week.
  • Producer/Merchant: Longs expanded by 4,272 to 51,533, while shorts contracted by 4,987 to 66,014.
  • Swap Dealers: Added 254 longs, reduced 365 shorts, and added 445 spreading positions, expanding net length by +619 to +27,756 contracts.
  • Other Reportables & Small Traders: Non-reportable traders bought fewer longs (-274) and added shorts (+1,492), driving a net flow of -1,766 contracts. Other reportables cut net length by -1,245 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

A pronounced structural divergence emerged this week between financial speculators and physical commercials:

  1. Speculators Turn Decisively Bearish: Managed Money accounts abandoned 5,145 long contracts and added 1,722 short contracts. Speculators now hold 9.8% of total open interest on the long side versus 19.0% on the short side.
  2. Commercials Absorb the Liquidation: Commercial hedgers were active buyers across both sides of the ledger, adding physical purchasing/hedging longs (+4,272) and buying back short hedges (-4,987). Producer/Merchant short holdings declined from 38.9% of open interest to 36.9%.
  3. Swap Dealers as Long Stabilizers: Swap dealers maintain a large net long balance (+27,756 contracts), holding 20.5% of total open interest on the long side against just 5.0% on the short side.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 178,964 contracts, down 3,727 (-2.04%) week-over-week. This marks an overall consolidation compared to peak 2026 open interest of 205,076 contracts reached in early June.
  • Trader Breadth:
    • Total reporting traders fell from 205 to 197.
    • Managed Money long trader count dropped from 44 to 35, confirming that the long reduction was driven by institutional account exits rather than a single player trimming risk.
    • Managed Money short trader count rose from 40 to 44.
  • Concentration Ratios:
    • Top 4 Traders: Account for 17.7% of net longs and 11.8% of net shorts (20.1% gross long / 13.2% gross short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Account for 27.3% of net longs and 20.7% of net shorts (31.3% gross long / 23.8% gross short).
    • Concentration remains relatively stable and well-distributed across major accounts compared to early 2026.

Price context

  • Market Quotes: Daily front-contract price quotes were not provided in the current reporting feed.
  • Positioning-Implied Dynamics: The combination of falling open interest (-3,727 contracts), aggressive managed money long liquidations (-5,145 contracts), and heavy commercial short-covering (-4,987 contracts) strongly indicates that speculative stop-outs and long de-risking were the primary market clearing mechanisms over the reporting week.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Short-Covering Vulnerability: With Managed Money net short positioning now at -16,406 contracts and gross speculative length at a multi-month low of 17,515 contracts, downside speculative positioning is becoming stretched. Any bullish fundamental supply catalyst or weather event in West Africa could trigger sharp short-covering.
  • Commercial Hedging Floor: The rapid shrinkage of commercial net shorts (-14,481 vs -30k+ in late summer) suggests physical origin hedgers have either completed their near-term forward sales or are defending physical price levels via short buybacks.
  • Speculative Capitulation Threshold: A further decline in Managed Money gross length below 15,000 contracts would represent near-total institutional spec exhaustion on the long side.