Takeaway

Fiona Cincotta (StoneX) frames the week ahead as a collision of event risk: Nvidia reports earnings Nov 17 without Jensen Huang following his resignation, just as a hawkish Fed — with a December hike fully priced — has lifted the dollar to a 19-month high and knocked gold to fresh 2026 lows. On FX, she flags USD/JPY back in Japanese intervention territory at 160 and a technically bearish GBP/USD into UK jobs and inflation data. No actionable trade is put forward; the piece is a levels-and-scenarios map for the week.

What the presenter said

• Equities/AI trade: US stocks rebounded over 3% this week after four weeks of declines [00:09]. Nvidia's earnings are due Nov 17 after the close [00:39]; Huang resigned Thursday amid reports of multiple affairs, including one with a potential Chinese spy [00:46]. She argues the market will judge whether strong AI demand can overcome the leadership turmoil — Nvidia must prove it can hold AI dominance without its former leader [00:57, 01:29, 01:40] — while competitors like AMD (+30% this week) get a window to catch up [01:50, 02:05].
• Anthropic IPO as sentiment gauge: expected Nov 18 (trading starts Nov 19), valuing the company around $1.4trn and aiming to raise $64.4bn [02:35, 02:42]. Reported six-times oversubscription is read as a good sign for the AI trade after recent jitters [02:57, 03:00]. Last week's AI selloff followed Democrats winning Congress, raising concerns about an AI build-out slowdown [03:10].
• Nasdaq technicals: the index recovered last week's losses, retaking the 200 EMA, and sits around 28,600 resistance [04:19]. If the 200 EMA holds, she sees buyers targeting the 50 EMA at 29,100 (also the 23.6% Fib) and then 30,000, which would create a higher high [04:37, 05:00]. Key support is the 200 EMA at 28,100 (38.2% Fib); below that, attention shifts quickly to 27,000 (50% Fib, July low) and then 26,400 [05:09–05:24].
• Fed/dollar: FOMC minutes land Wednesday [05:51]. Markets fully price a December hike with a 10% probability of a 50bp move [06:24]; hawkish minutes could lift hike expectations into 2027, boosting Treasury yields and the dollar — negative for stocks and gold [06:34].
• Gold: made fresh 2026 lows Thursday, trading below both the 50 and 200 EMA, and is testing the October low at 3,870 [06:59, 07:20]. A break opens 3,800, then 3,700 [07:47]. A less hawkish Fed or weaker retail sales could spark a bounce: first resistance 3,960 (July low), then 4,100, the 50 EMA at 4,124 and 4,200; only above 4,250 (200 EMA) would gold be on "a more stable footing" [08:00–08:30].
• Yen: Japanese GDP (Sunday evening/Monday) is expected at 0.1% growth, down from 0.4% [08:43]; a beat would support BoJ rate-hike expectations, which the JPY needs [08:56]. USD/JPY broke out of its holding pattern this week to a high of 160, entering the zone where Japanese authorities have intervened before [09:34]. Above 160, the 78.6% Fib at 161.60 comes into focus; a rejection at 160 and a break of 159.70 (61.8% Fib) targets 158.50 (50% Fib, capped October gains) [10:00–10:20]. A break below 157.20 (200 EMA sits at 157.80) would signal a more bearish outlook [10:44].
• UK/sterling: jobs data Tuesday, inflation Wednesday [11:04]. The BoE hiked 25bp in November [11:13]; UK GDP printed 0.7%, a two-and-a-half-year high [11:20]; and the BoE forecasts inflation could reach 5% by Q2 2027 [11:27]. Hotter-than-expected UK CPI would support a December BoE hike (75% priced for 25bp), which she sees as beneficial for the pound even against a strong dollar [11:36, 11:53]. GBP/USD ran into resistance at 1.35 and rebounded firmly lower despite the BoE hike, pressured by dollar strength and falling oil prices [12:10]. The picture is bearish with RSI below 50 [13:04]; hotter inflation could take the pair toward 1.33, above which sit the 50 EMA at 1.3350 and the 200 EMA at 1.3380 [12:37, 12:51]. Support is 1.3180 — a break below would be "a very bearish signal," as the pair hasn't traded under that level in 2026 [13:08–13:12].

Trade ideas

None stated — no actionable trade is put forward. The market view instead: equities are constructive only above 29,100 on the Nasdaq with 28,100 the line of defence; gold is bearish below 3,870 unless the Fed softens; USD/JPY sits at a 160 pivot with intervention risk; GBP/USD is bearish while under 1.35 and would turn "very bearish" below 1.3180. Time horizon discussed is short term.

Levels and data cited

• Nasdaq: 26,265 (last Friday's low); 28,600 resistance; 29,100 target (50 EMA / 23.6% Fib); 30,000 target; 28,100 support (200 EMA / 38.2% Fib); 27,000 (50% Fib / July low); 26,400 support.
• Gold: 3,870 support (October low, currently being tested); 3,800 and 3,700 downside targets; 3,960 (July low), 4,100, 4,124 (50 EMA), 4,200 and 4,250 (200 EMA) as upside resistance. A 4,700 resistance is also listed in the extracted levels without further context.
• USD/JPY: 160 (this week's high, intervention zone); 161.60 target (78.6% Fib of the 164 high / 153 low); 159.70 support (61.8% Fib); 158.50 (50% Fib, capped October gains); 157.80 (200 EMA); 157.20 (break below flips the outlook bearish).
• GBP/USD: 1.35 resistance; 1.33 target; 1.3350 (50 EMA); 1.3380 (200 EMA); 1.3180 support.
• Data referenced: US headline and core CPI hotter than expected; BoE hiked 25bp at its November meeting; UK GDP +0.7%, a two-and-a-half-year high; BoE inflation forecast of up to 5% by Q2 2027; Japanese GDP expected at ~0.1% vs 0.4% prior.
• Calendar: Nvidia earnings Nov 17 (after close); Anthropic IPO Nov 18, trading Nov 19; FOMC minutes Wednesday; UK jobs Tuesday; UK inflation Wednesday; Japanese GDP Sunday evening/Monday.

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Nvidia's leadership turmoil could undermine its AI dominance, giving AMD and others room to close the gap.
• Democrats' control of Congress raises concerns of a slowdown in the AI build-out.
• Hawkish FOMC minutes would lift rate-hike expectations, pressuring both stocks and gold.
• Stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP could bring forward BoJ hikes and relieve pressure on the yen; Japanese authorities may also intervene directly in USD/JPY.
• Hotter UK inflation would reinforce BoE hike expectations and support the pound, offsetting the dollar-sterling dynamic.
• US dollar strength and falling oil prices remain headwinds for sterling; a GBP/USD break below 1.3180 would be a very bearish signal.

Summary of the presenter's views as extracted from the source video; not investment advice.