Takeaway

Jim McCormick of AgMarket (interviewed by Michelle Rook on Farm Journal's Markets Now) argued the lows are likely in for corn and soybeans — in his words, "the emotional bottom... feels like it's in" — citing a marketing-year high in corn export sales, Brazilian dryness forcing bean replanting, and technical buying after the market never retested the November crop report lows. The offset is macro: a dollar at 19-month highs and an expected December Fed hike are eroding US competitiveness, which is why his overall read is mixed despite the constructive supply picture. For a desk, the near-term catalysts to watch are South American weather and any US-China tariff news out of the APEC or G20 summits.

What the presenter said

• Grain and livestock futures closed higher Friday, capping a positive week [00:26]; demand, South American weather concerns and technical buying drove the grains [00:47], with the market never retesting the November crop report lows [01:20].
• Supply is tight: a 13 million metric ton increase in world production is needed just to keep ending stocks stagnant [02:08], and soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels leave "no room for error" [02:41].
• Demand is strong: corn export sales hit a marketing year high [00:51]; flash sales to China and Vietnam suggest China is on track for its 20 million metric ton bean purchase target [04:18]; Mexico is buying corn aggressively because they see value [07:53].
• Dryness in parts of Brazil is causing bean replanting, which could delay safrinha corn crop planning [00:56].
• Speculation that China wants tariffs dropped, potentially discussed at the APEC or G20 summits, could boost US ag exports [03:10].
• Black Sea export talks produced no changes — exports stay limited and no demand shifts to the US [06:35].
• Ukraine could have up to 30 million metric tons at the start of this marketing year vs. 10 million metric tons last year; if unsold, financing shortfalls could shrink future production [07:00].
• Macro headwinds: a strong dollar and rising rates (at least a quarter-point December hike, some say half) make US products less competitive globally [04:43]; conversely, investment firms may use commodities as an inflation hedge, pulling money into grains and livestock [05:45].
• Cattle: consumer demand for beef remains strong despite higher prices, even as credit card debt rises and savings fall [10:18]; feeder cattle are leading the market higher and pulling fat cattle up [10:54].

Trade ideas

None stated — McCormick put forward no actionable trade with entry, target or stop. The market view instead: short-term constructive-to-mixed, with the corn and soybean bottom "feeling" in on tight global supplies and strong demand, tempered by dollar strength, rate-hike risk and Brazil weather uncertainty.

Levels and data cited

No specific futures price levels were given. Data and figures cited: - USDA: weekly corn export sales at a marketing year high - USDA: 13 million metric ton increase in world production needed to keep ending stocks stagnant - USDA: soybean ending stocks of 300 million bushels - Trade reports: China bean purchases of over 20 million metric tons (with unknown) - Trade reports: Ukraine grain at start of marketing year — 10 million metric tons last year vs. up to 30 million metric tons this year - US Dollar Index at 19-month highs; Brazilian Real "going down" - Inflation readings this week: "red hot" - Fed December hike: "at least a quarter point, some say half point" - Consumer strain: credit card debt going up, savings going down

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Brazilian dryness could worsen, hurting yields and delaying planting.
• Ukraine's unsold grain could trigger financing problems and smaller future production.
• Dollar strength makes US agricultural products less competitive globally.
• Rising rates could pull money into the US market, strengthening the dollar further and squeezing commodities.
• Higher commodity prices could stifle demand from both international buyers and domestic consumers.
• Stock market erosion could weigh on overall commodity demand.
• High gas prices could limit holiday travel and consumer spending, damping demand for certain products.