Takeaway

The presenter outlines conditional breakout and mean-reversion setups across energy and precious metals, highlighting that key commodity contracts are testing critical resistance zones. Actionable execution hinges on price action confirmation at key boundaries, particularly whether NYMEX Natural Gas can post a solid candle body close above resistance and whether Crude Oil can clear prior swing highs or fail its retest trendline.

What the presenter said

• The presenter’s trading system generated positive performance over the previous week despite relatively muted market activity [00:21], [01:01].
• NZDJPY: The position remains active and was scaled up following double-bottom and rounded-bottom formations around "88.860", having previously reached a target of "89.780" [02:25].
• Forex & Precious Metals Recaps:
  • GBPAUD reached a target of "1.80899" before a re-entry attempt failed [04:56].
  • EURCAD was stopped out by a wick [05:27], while EURAUD sold off as anticipated from the "1.64800-1.65300" resistance band [05:53].
  • GBPUSD rejected the 50 EMA resistance at "1.32700" [07:04], and USDJPY hit a "90 pips" profit target following an engulfing candle above the 50 EMA [07:48].
  • Palladium hit its target of "1,178.939" off a double bottom [09:45].
• Natural Gas: NYMEX prices retraced off a double-top structure; continuation higher strictly requires a solid body candle close above major overhead resistance ("3.307-3.398" on NYMEX; "3.334-3.4538" on Capital.com; "316-321" on MCX) [11:39], [12:40].
• Gold & Silver: The Gold/Silver ratio is retreating from resistance, pointing to potential upside for both metals [19:24]. Silver is nearing its 50 EMA and resistance at "62.63-64.00" [19:55], while Gold holds above the 20 and 50 EMAs below resistance at "42.70-43.00" [20:01].
• Crude Oil: WTI has broken out and retested a descending triangle pattern and is pushing higher [21:50]. Fundamentally, the presenter notes former President Trump's remark regarding not attacking Iran ahead of the midterms points to a subdued fundamental backdrop [22:04].

Trade ideas

• NZDJPY
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: "Around 88.860" | Target: None stated (prior target hit at "89.780") | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified | Conviction: Medium
• Natural Gas
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: Pullback to the 50 EMA or below with a bullish engulfing confirmation | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified | Conviction: Medium
• Natural Gas
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Rejection at "3.307-3.398" (NYMEX) displaying a triple top with a bearish engulfing, pin bar, or shooting star candle | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Unspecified | Conviction: Medium
• Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: Pullback confirmed by an engulfing pattern | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short-term | Conviction: Medium
• Gold (XAUUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Double top or bearish engulfing pattern within the "42.70-43.00" resistance band | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short-term | Conviction: Medium
• Silver (XAGUSD)
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Swing high bearish engulfing candle or double top at "62.63-64.00" resistance | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short-term | Conviction: Medium
• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1! NYMEX)
  • Direction: Long
  • Entry: Breakout above prior highs at "96.80-98.00", followed by a pullback and bullish engulfing pattern | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short-term | Conviction: Medium
• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1! NYMEX)
  • Direction: Short
  • Entry: Close below the supporting trendline on solid volume | Target: None stated | Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short-term | Conviction: Medium

Levels and data cited

• Natural Gas Futures (NG1! NYMEX): Resistance at "3.307-3.398"
• Natural Gas (NATGAS Capital.com): Resistance at "3.334-3.4538"
• Natural Gas Futures (NATURALS MCX): Resistance at "316-321"
• Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1! NYMEX): Resistance / prior highs at "96.80-98.00"
• Gold (XAUUSD): Resistance at "42.70-43.00"
• Silver (XAGUSD): Resistance at "62.63-64.00"
• NZDJPY: Entry at "88.860"; target at "89.780"
• Palladium: Target at "1,178.939"; stop at "1,138.584"
• GBPAUD: Target at "1.80899"; stop at "1.81161"
• EURAUD: Resistance band ("red zone") at "1.64800-1.65300"
• GBPUSD: 50 EMA resistance at "1.32700"
• USDJPY: Target of "90 pips"
• External Data: Money Markers Weekly Forex Report Zones (previous week)

Risks and what would invalidate this

• Fake Outs: Wicks penetrating resistance without a solid body close indicate false breakouts rather than confirmed trend continuations.
• Counter-Trend Execution: The presenter cautions that reversal trades carry inherent elevated risk.