Takeaway

The presenter argues that the reopening of Chinese markets post-holiday has established an actionable bottom across the metals complex, despite geopolitical headlines between the US and Iran driving crude oil higher and causing a temporary pullback in metals. Short-term upside is seen across base metals and aluminum equities—specifically VALE, Alcoa, and Century Aluminum—provided current pullback tests hold through the next 24 to 48 hours.

What the presenter said

• [00:09] China's return from its holiday week is expected to put in a bottom for the metals complex.
• [00:16] Metals demonstrated an initial bounce during the overnight session when Asian trading opened.
• [00:23] News flow between Iran and the US pushed crude oil higher, which triggered a pullback in metals.
• [00:39] The presenter views VALE as having formed a "beautiful bottom."
• [00:44] Pullback tests in metals equities (VALE, Alcoa, Century Aluminum) holding today and tomorrow will confirm their upside potential.
• [00:56] The aluminum and base metals sectors are setting up to reject lower levels and move higher.
• [01:00] If base metals hold these levels, precious metals (gold and silver) should also hold over today and tomorrow.

Trade ideas

• VALE

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry / Target / Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short term
  • Conviction: High
  • Thesis: The presenter views the stock as having put in a clear bottom, with upside following if ongoing pullback tests hold over today and tomorrow.

• Alcoa (AA)

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry / Target / Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short term
  • Conviction: High
  • Thesis: Set up within the base metal and aluminum complex to reject lower prices and advance if current support tests hold over today and tomorrow.

• Century Aluminum (CENX)

  • Direction: Long
  • Entry / Target / Stop: None stated
  • Horizon: Short term
  • Conviction: High
  • Thesis: Anticipated to reject lower levels alongside the broader aluminum sector assuming pullback tests hold today and tomorrow.