Soybeans COT — Week of October 9, 2026
Soybeans — CFTC Positioning Report (Week Ended October 09, 2026)
Executive summary
The Commitments of Traders report for CBOT Soybeans (ZS) for the week ending October 09, 2026, reveals a re-acceleration of bullish speculative participation alongside expanding commercial short-hedging.
- Managed Money Net Long Expands: Managed Money increased its net long position by 11,508 contracts to +258,066 lots (289,942 long vs. 31,876 short), reversing the modest liquidation seen in the previous reporting week.
- Open Interest Rebounds: Total open interest gained 31,071 contracts to 1,121,298 contracts, approaching the multi-month high recorded on September 25, 2026 (1,114,328 contracts) and September 18 (1,104,880 contracts).
- Commercial Producer/Merchants Absorb Spec Flow: Commercial producer/merchants added 17,211 short contracts and cut 3,411 longs, pushing their net short position deeper to -311,767 contracts, reflecting aggressive hedging near price highs.
- Price Context: After pulling back to 1,277.25 on October 2, front-month ZS futures stabilized and rebounded to 1,292.25 on the October 9 cutoff date.
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
Speculative exposure remains near the upper decile of its year-to-date range:
- Managed Money Net Position: Net long 258,066 contracts (289,942 longs vs. 31,876 shorts). This represents a notable rebound from the prior week's net long of 246,558 contracts (+11,508 lots net change) and sits just shy of the peak net long of 265,159 contracts set on September 25, 2026. Speculative shorts (31,876 contracts) remain pinned near historical lows.
- Managed Money Gross Share: Managed money accounts for 25.9% of total open interest on the long side and only 2.8% on the short side, with an additional 12.6% held in spreading (140,932 contracts).
- Producer/Merchant Net Position: Net short -311,767 contracts (338,185 longs vs. 649,952 shorts). This marks a meaningful expansion in net commercial short exposure from -291,145 contracts the previous week, and approaches the peak net short exposure seen on September 25 (-322,240 contracts).
- Swap Dealers: Net long 61,770 contracts (126,785 longs vs. 65,015 shorts), ticking up slightly from +58,170 contracts the prior week, though still down substantially from late-spring/summer levels where net longs surpassed 120,000 contracts.
- Other Reportables: Net long 15,830 contracts (71,025 longs vs. 55,195 shorts), recovering after a brief dip to +10,314 contracts the prior week.
Flows and week-over-week changes
Total market activity across CBOT Soybeans showed strong gross accumulation across directional and spreading positions:
| Category | Long Change | Short Change | Spreading Change | Net Flow Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | +9,067 | -2,441 | +8,226 | +11,508 (Bullish) |
| Producer/Merchant | -3,411 | +17,211 | — | -20,622 (Bearish/Hedge) |
| Swap Dealers | +2,801 | -799 | +942 | +3,600 (Bullish) |
| Other Reportables | +6,517 | +1,001 | +5,938 | +5,516 (Bullish) |
| Nonreportable (Small Traders) | +991 | +993 | — | -2 (Neutral) |
Managed money flows were characterized by both fresh long entries (+9,067 contracts) and short covering (-2,441 contracts). Conversely, commercial producer/merchants added 17,211 short contracts while paring 3,411 longs, reflecting active commercial selling as prices traded back toward the $13.00/bu threshold.
Commercials vs speculators
The structural tension between large commercial hedgers and speculative fund managers remains elevated:
- Commercial Net Deficit: The producer/merchant net short stance (-311,767 contracts) is at its second-heaviest level since late September. Commercial gross shorts represent 58.0% (649,952 contracts) of the entire open interest, reflecting widespread forward pricing and physical pipeline hedging.
- Speculative Hegemony: Managed money net length (+258,066) represents nearly the exact mirror image of the commercial deficit. The ratio of gross speculative longs to shorts stands at 9.1:1 (289,942 to 31,876), indicating an asymmetric conviction among trend-followers and momentum algorithms.
- Concentration Metrics:
- The 4 largest traders hold 8.1% of net long exposure and 12.5% of net short exposure (or 10.3% gross long and 15.3% gross short).
- The 8 largest traders account for 13.9% net long and 19.2% net short (18.1% gross long and 25.2% gross short).
- Trader counts show 110 long managed money traders facing off against 257 short producer/merchants, underscoring broad-based commercial hedging absorbing consolidated speculative longs.
Open interest and participation
- Total Open Interest: Advanced by 31,071 contracts (+2.85% WoW) to 1,121,298 contracts. This marks a new peak for the data series provided, eclipsing the 1,114,328 level set on September 25.
- Total Trader Counts: The total number of reporting market participants ticked down slightly from 625 to 624. Managed money long trader counts rose by 1 (to 110 from 109), while managed money shorts dropped by 3 (to 32 from 35). Producer/merchant short trader counts rose to 257 from 254.
- Spreading Volume: Managed money spreading exposure expanded by 8,226 contracts to 140,932 contracts (12.6% of open interest), matching broad seasonal calendar roll and inter-crop spreading patterns into autumn harvest.
Price context
CBOT Soybeans (ZS) daily front-contract closes over the recent trading cycle:
- September 25, 2026: 1,320.00 (managed money net long reached 265,159)
- October 02, 2026: 1,277.25 (managed money net long pulled back to 246,558 amidst price correction)
- October 06, 2026: 1,304.75 (mid-week technical rebound)
- October 09, 2026: 1,292.25 (as-of reporting date close)
Technical & Positioning Correlation
During the week leading into October 02, ZS corrected sharply from 1,320.00 to 1,277.25 (-42.75 cents), prompting a 19,867-contract reduction in managed money gross longs. However, during the week ending October 09, buyers stepped in near the 1,280 level, driving a price rebound toward 1,304.75 on October 06 before settling at 1,292.25. The positioning data confirms that managed money actively bought this dip (+9,067 longs) with open interest expanding (+31,071), confirming fresh money entering the market rather than passive short covering.
Risks and watchpoints
- Crowded Long Vulnerability: Managed money gross longs (289,942 contracts) remain near the top of the 52-week range. With gross shorts compressed down to 31,876 contracts, speculative position liquidation poses an asymmetric downside risk if price momentum breaks support below 1,275–1,280.
- Commercial Hedging Ceiling: Producer/merchants expanded gross short positions by 17,211 contracts WoW. Sustained commercial selling into rallies above 1,300 continues to create heavy resistance.
- Harvest Pressure & Spreading: Managed money spreading stands at 140,932 contracts. Any shifting of calendar spreads as delivery and harvest progress could trigger volatility in the front month relative to deferred contracts.