NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-09-12

Executive Summary

The U.S. experienced significantly warmer-than-normal weather, driving exceptionally strong cooling demand for the week. National population-weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) were 34.0 above average, led by intense heat in the South Central and Midwest regions. This unseasonably strong power burn demand for Natural Gas will result in a much smaller-than-average storage injection, tightening the supply/demand balance ahead of the winter heating season.

Weather Snapshot

Nationally, weather was skewed heavily towards cooling demand. The U.S. saw a total of 67.0 population-weighted CDDs, a significant deviation of +34.0 above the seasonal norm. Conversely, Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were minimal at 3.0, representing a deviation of -5.0 below normal.

Key regional deviations highlight the sources of this national trend: * South Central: Was the primary driver of the heat, registering a massive +58.0 CDD deviation above normal. * Midwest: Experienced intense heat with a CDD deviation of +38.5 and an HDD deviation of -29.3, indicating widespread warmth. * Pacific: Also saw strong cooling demand, with CDDs coming in 32.0 above normal. * East: Remained warmer than average, with a CDD deviation of +19.3.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The substantial positive CDD anomalies translate directly to strong demand for Natural Gas in the power generation sector. The extreme heat, particularly in the high-consumption South Central (ERCOT/SPP) and Midwest regions, fueled robust demand for air conditioning, leading to elevated power burn throughout the week. Residential and commercial heating demand was negligible, as expected for this time of year but further suppressed by the warmth.

From a storage perspective, this weather pattern is decidedly bullish for NG prices. The market expects large inventory builds during the September shoulder season to ensure adequate supply for winter. This week's surge in cooling demand will have consumed gas that would have otherwise gone into storage, leading to a much smaller weekly injection than the five-year average. This report will be viewed as tightening the end-of-season storage outlook.

Forward-Looking Context

While this report is backward-looking, the magnitude of the deviation confirms a significant tightening event for the Natural Gas balance. Weather forecasts had likely anticipated warmth, but this data quantifies the exceptional intensity.

This event is particularly notable because it occurred during the crucial pre-winter injection season. A smaller-than-average build in mid-September reduces the inventory cushion ahead of the winter withdrawal season (November-March). Any continuation of this above-normal warmth would further erode the storage surplus and increase market sensitivity to early winter cold.