NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-09-05

Executive Summary

The U.S. experienced significantly hotter-than-normal weather for the week, driving a major surplus of Cooling Degree Days (CDDs). Extreme heat was concentrated in the high-demand Midwest, South Central, and East regions, implying very strong power burn for Natural Gas. This weather pattern is highly bullish for demand and is expected to result in a much smaller-than-average storage injection for the period.

Weather Snapshot

Nationally, the U.S. recorded 80.0 population-weighted CDDs, a significant deviation of +36.0 CDDs above the normal of 29.0 for this time of year. Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were negligible at 3.0 nationally.

Regional deviations highlight a stark east-west divide: * Midwest: Experienced the most extreme heat anomaly, with a massive deviation of +84.0 CDDs above normal. * South Central: Was also significantly hotter than normal, with a deviation of +53.0 CDDs. * East: Saw strong cooling demand with a deviation of +36.3 CDDs. * Pacific: In stark contrast, this region was much cooler than normal, with a CDD deviation of -53.0 and an unseasonable HDD deviation of +18.5. * Mountain: Was slightly cooler than normal, with a CDD deviation of -6.0.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The substantial positive CDD deviations across the central and eastern U.S. point to exceptionally strong Natural Gas demand from the power generation sector ("power burn") to meet air conditioning load. The concentration of this heat in the densely populated Midwest and East, along with the gas-intensive South Central region, magnifies the impact on the national supply/demand balance.

This robust demand will likely lead to a significantly smaller injection into underground storage than the seasonal average. The upcoming EIA weekly storage report is expected to reflect this tightness, providing bullish support for NG futures. While the cooler weather in the Pacific and Mountain regions offered a slight offset, it was insufficient to counteract the intense heat in the eastern two-thirds of the country.

Forward-Looking Context

This intense heat wave is particularly impactful as it occurs in early September, a time when cooling demand is normally beginning to moderate. Such a strong, late-season demand event consumes gas that would typically be injected into storage, tightening the national supply buffer ahead of the upcoming winter heating season.

While this report analyzes historical data for the past week, its primary value is in confirming the fundamental driver behind the next storage report. Market focus will remain on forward-looking forecasts to determine if this anomalous heat will persist, but this data confirms a week of very supportive weather for Natural Gas prices. The final storage number will also be influenced by non-weather factors such as production rates and LNG export volumes.