NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-08-22

Executive Summary

The U.S. experienced a significantly hotter-than-normal week, driven by intense heat across most of the country with the notable exception of the Midwest. The national surplus of 8.0 Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) implies robust power burn for Natural Gas, likely resulting in a smaller-than-average injection into storage for the corresponding EIA report week.

Weather Snapshot

Nationally, population-weighted CDDs totaled 82.0, which was 8.0 CDDs above normal. Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were negligible, consistent with late summer.

Regional deviations highlight a widespread heatwave offset by a cool Midwest: * Hotter than Normal: The Pacific (+13.0 CDDs), East (+12.7 CDDs), South Central (+12.0 CDDs), and Mountain (+11.0 CDDs) regions all experienced substantially warmer-than-average temperatures. * Cooler than Normal: The Midwest was the sole outlier, registering 13.5 CDDs below normal, indicating significantly milder conditions.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The national surplus in cooling demand points to a strong week for Natural Gas consumption in the power sector. Elevated CDDs, particularly in the high-demand East and South Central regions, translate directly to increased air conditioning load and therefore higher power generation needs from gas-fired plants.

This heightened demand will divert gas that would have otherwise gone into storage. Consequently, the weekly EIA storage report covering this period is expected to show a net injection that is smaller than the 5-year average. This is supportive for NG futures prices as it limits the build in inventories ahead of the winter withdrawal season. The cooler weather in the Midwest provided a partial offset but was insufficient to counteract the heat elsewhere.

Forward-Looking Context

While degree days are a strong indicator, actual gas consumption is also influenced by factors such as renewable generation output (wind and solar) and real-time power prices that affect coal-to-gas switching.

This report covers a peak summer demand week, where temperature deviations have a maximal impact on consumption. As the season transitions into autumn, the market's focus will gradually shift from CDDs to HDDs. This late-season heat erodes the storage surplus, tightening the national supply/demand balance heading into the critical winter heating season.