Live Cattle Futures COT Report: Week Ending February 6, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in Live Cattle futures as of February 6, 2026. The key development this week was a significant surge in bullish conviction from Managed Money. This group added aggressively to their net long position, pushing it to the highest level in the provided six-week history. This speculative buying was met with equally strong selling and hedging from the Producer/Merchant category, whose net short position also expanded to a multi-week record. The increase in total open interest indicates that new capital is flowing into the market, heightening the classic battle between bullish speculators and bearish commercial hedgers.

Positioning

• Managed Money: Net position swelled to +111,771 contracts, a significant increase from +104,399 in the prior report and the most bullish stance in the provided data series. This was driven by a large build in gross longs to 126,320 contracts.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This cohort holds a deeply short position, which expanded to a net -135,174 contracts, their largest net short over the last six weeks. Their gross short position stands at a substantial 179,009 contracts, representing 53.2% of total open interest.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a relatively stable net long position of +55,517 contracts. Their positioning often acts as a mirror to other categories, providing liquidity.

Net Positions vs. Prior Weeks: | Reporting Date | Managed Money Net | Producer/Merchant Net | Open Interest | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 2026-02-06 | +111,771 | -135,174 | 336,190 | | 2026-01-30 | +104,399 | -132,837 | 332,214 | | 2026-01-16 | +100,338 | -131,724 | 324,599 | | 2026-01-09 | +93,727 | -125,745 | 331,020 | | 2026-01-05 | +92,214 | -121,920 | 327,077 | | 2025-12-23 | +89,587 | -117,913 | 322,316 |

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money was the most active participant, adding a net 7,372 contracts to their bullish position. This was a combination of establishing new longs (+5,021 contracts) and covering existing shorts (-2,351 contracts), indicating strong one-way conviction.
• Producer/Merchants increased their net short position by 2,337 contracts. This was achieved by adding 1,401 new short hedges while simultaneously liquidating 936 long positions.
• Other Reportables were net sellers, reducing their net long exposure by adding 3,393 short contracts against a reduction of 1,108 longs.

Commercials vs speculators

The market shows a stark and widening divergence between the two primary opposing groups. - Speculators (Managed Money) are clearly in a bullish camp, with their net long position at a multi-week high. Their gross long position (126,320) dwarfs their gross short (14,549), a ratio of nearly 9-to-1. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are positioned for lower prices or are heavily hedging forward production. Their gross short position (179,009) is more than four times larger than their gross long (43,835). This level of hedging suggests producers see current prices as favorable for locking in future sales.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest (OI) rose by 3,976 contracts to 336,190, the highest level in the available data. The fact that OI is increasing alongside a build in speculative longs suggests that new money is entering the market to fund the bullish view, rather than just a transfer of risk between existing participants.
• Concentration among the largest traders remains significant. The top 8 traders control 21.6% of the long side and 26.0% of the short side on a net basis. This highlights the influence of a small number of large players, particularly on the commercial short side.

Price context

Price series data was not available for this reporting period. Therefore, it is not possible to determine if the aggressive buying from Managed Money drove prices higher during the week or if they were buying into a price dip. The context of price action is crucial for interpreting whether this positioning is a confirmation of an existing trend or a contrarian signal.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Long Trade: The Managed Money net long position is at a multi-week extreme. While this reflects strong bullish momentum, it also makes the market vulnerable to a rapid long liquidation and price correction if sentiment were to shift.
• Heavy Commercial Hedging: The record net short position from Producers/Merchants could act as a significant headwind for any further price rallies. These entities are natural sellers and their increased activity suggests a well-supplied market or price levels they are eager to sell into.
• Divergence as a Focal Point: The widening gap between speculator longs and commercial shorts is the key dynamic to watch. The resolution of this tension will likely dictate the market's next significant move. Continued momentum from speculative buyers is required to overcome the heavy commercial selling pressure.