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Gold COT — Week of October 16, 2026

Gold — CFTC Disaggregated COT Analysis (Week Ended October 16, 2026)

Executive summary

The Commitments of Traders (COT) disaggregated report for Gold (GC) futures for the week ending October 16, 2026, highlights continued liquidation and de-risking among speculative longs alongside muted open interest growth:

  • Managed Money De-risking: Managed money cut net long exposure for the fourth consecutive week, decreasing by 3,898 contracts to +107,089 lots (124,747 longs vs. 17,658 shorts). This represents the lowest net long managed money footprint since early July 2026.
  • Commercial Net Absorption: Swap dealers and producers pared gross short exposures slightly (-1,560 and -1,538 contracts, respectively), bringing overall commercial net short positioning to -242,531 contracts—a slight reduction in commercial hedging pressure.
  • Total Participation Flattish: Aggregate open interest stood at 396,345 contracts, adding an incremental +236 contracts week-on-week, remaining well below the 400k+ thresholds logged in August and September 2026.
  • Price Consolidation: Front-month GC settled at $4,177.0/oz on October 16, rebounding from a mid-week low of $4,099.0/oz on October 14, though remaining rangebound below early-October levels ($4,191.4/oz on October 9).

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Gross Long Gross Short Net Position Prior Week Net (Oct 9) 1-Week Shift
Managed Money 124,747 17,658 +107,089 +110,987 -3,898
Swap Dealers 13,976 238,070 -224,094 -225,026 +932
Producer/Merchant 18,386 36,823 -18,437 -19,501 +1,064
Other Reportables 120,553 19,763 +100,790 +99,348 +1,442
Nonreportable (Small) 50,731 16,079 +34,652 +34,192 +460

Historical Positioning Context

  • Managed Money: At +107,089 net long, managed money positioning sits at a multi-month low relative to the late-summer peak of +144,747 net long on August 28, 2026 (159,819 longs vs. 15,072 shorts). Gross longs (124,747) have declined by 35,072 contracts (-21.9%) since late August.
  • Other Reportables: The category maintains a sizable net long position of +100,790 contracts, holding relatively steady near its seasonal peak (which reached +118,283 gross long on September 25, 2026).
  • Commercial Positioning: Swap dealer net shorts (-224,094) remain well off their extreme short peak reached in late August 2026 (-245,027 net short on August 28).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total open interest saw a marginal increase of +236 contracts to 396,345:

  • Managed Money: Cut 2,354 gross long contracts while adding 1,544 gross short contracts. Spreading positions rose by 2,161 contracts to 33,557 lots (8.5% of open interest), indicating rotation into calendar and relative-value spreads rather than directional accumulation.
  • Swap Dealers: Closed 628 long contracts and trimmed 1,560 short contracts, alongside a 281-contract drop in spreading to 22,057 contracts.
  • Producer/Merchant: Reduced long exposure by 474 contracts and short hedging by 1,538 contracts, signaling light commercial cover on the mid-week price dip.
  • Other Reportables: Added 2,251 longs and 809 shorts, expanding their net long bias by +1,442 contracts, while reducing spreading by 706 contracts.
  • Nonreportable Traders: Slightly increased net long bias (+460 contracts) via +267 longs and -193 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

Commercial hedgers and speculative money display a continued drift away from summer extremes:

  • Commercial Aggregate: Combining Swap Dealers (-224,094) and Producers/Merchants (-18,437), total commercial net positioning stands at -242,531 contracts, down from -244,527 contracts on October 9 and -264,302 contracts on August 28. Commercials hold 69.4% of total gross short open interest (Swap Dealers: 60.1%, Producers: 9.3%).
  • Speculative Balance: Managed money controls 31.5% of gross long open interest against only 4.5% of short open interest. The long-to-short ratio for managed money sits at 7.06:1, down significantly from 15.46:1 on August 7 (139,809 longs vs. 9,043 shorts) and 16.33:1 on September 25 (135,699 longs vs. 8,310 shorts).

Open interest and participation

  • Open Interest: Stood at 396,345 contracts, effectively unchanged from 396,109 the prior week, but noticeably compressed from the 2026 high of 527,455 contracts set on January 16, 2026, and the late-August secondary peak of 427,957 contracts (August 28, 2026).
  • Trader Count: Total active reporting entities increased by 4 to 289 traders (from 285 on October 9).
    • Managed money long participants held flat at 75 traders.
    • Managed money short participants rose by 3 to 21 traders.
  • Concentration Metrics:
    • Top 4 Traders: Net position accounted for 20.9% of the long side and 37.0% of the short side (gross: 21.6% long, 38.8% short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Net position represented 29.1% long and 54.6% short (gross: 31.3% long, 58.2% short). Concentration metrics remain elevated on the short side, driven overwhelmingly by the largest swap dealers.

Price context (only using provided series)

Between the October 9 and October 16 COT report dates: * Front contract GC settled at $4,191.4/oz on Friday, October 9, 2026. * Prices weakened into mid-week, dropping to $4,152.7/oz on October 13 and touching a local closing low of $4,099.0/oz on October 14. * A two-day bounce lifted the contract back to $4,177.0/oz by the October 16 close (-$14.4/oz or -0.34% over the reporting window). * Wider context: Gold remains lower relative to early 2026 highs ($5,689.8/oz on January 29, 2026) and late-August peaks ($4,679.5/oz on August 25, 2026), but comfortably above the mid-year trough of $4,004.8/oz recorded on July 16, 2026.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Managed Money Long Fatigue: The continuous four-week unwinding of managed money gross longs (from 142,394 on September 18 to 124,747 on October 16) highlights waning trend-following appetite. A sustained break below the 120,000 long threshold would test levels not seen since April 2026.
  • Emergence of Speculative Shorting: While gross short positioning among managed money remains historically modest at 17,658 contracts, it has more than doubled from the September 25 low of 8,310 contracts. Continued short builds could accelerate downward price pressure.
  • Commercial Short Covering Support: Commercial entities have modestly covered gross shorts over the past two weeks (-11,122 swap shorts and -6,135 producer shorts since October 2). If commercial covering slows without new speculative demand stepping in, support near the $4,100/oz level may become fragile.