Coffee (ICE) Futures - COT Report for the week ending June 12, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative and commercial players moving in opposite directions amidst a surge in market participation. Managed Money dramatically reduced its net long position, driven by a massive increase in new short-selling. Conversely, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) pared back their net short exposure to its lowest level in the provided historical data, primarily by adding new long positions. The sharp rise in open interest to a multi-month high indicates that new capital is actively entering the market, setting the stage for a potential increase in volatility as these opposing views seek resolution.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net long position fell sharply to +11,863 contracts from +19,624 contracts the prior week. This is a dramatic reduction from levels seen earlier in the year (e.g., over +35,000 in late December) and marks a significant unwinding of bullish bets.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net short position contracted significantly to -9,308 contracts, down from -16,265 the previous week. This is the smallest net short position in the provided dataset, indicating a major reduction in hedging pressure from producers.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a net long position, which increased slightly to +3,523 contracts from +2,760 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The most significant activity this week was the aggressive bearish shift by Managed Money. - Managed Money: This category saw a large increase in short positions (+6,417 contracts) while also liquidating longs (-1,344 contracts). This combined action was the primary driver of the reduction in their net long stance. - Producer/Merchant: This group displayed bullish behavior, adding a substantial 7,771 new long contracts while adding only a modest 814 contracts to the short side. This suggests a notable increase in physical buying or a sharp reduction in producer hedging activity. - Swap Dealers: Reduced their overall footprint, cutting both long (-408 contracts) and short (-1,171 contracts) positions.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators has narrowed considerably, but the weekly flows show a stark contrast in opinion. - Managed Money is rapidly scaling back its bullish exposure, with the net long position shrinking by 40% in a single week. - Commercials, conversely, have reduced their net short (hedged) position to a multi-month low. This can imply that producers are less inclined to hedge at current levels, either because they have completed selling programs or they anticipate higher prices. The reduction in their net short position from over -25,000 contracts in late December to just -9,308 now is a major structural shift.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total market participation surged, with OI increasing by 10,664 contracts to a total of 213,519. This is the highest level of open interest in the provided dataset, indicating significant new engagement in the market.
• Interpretation: The rise in OI alongside a major build in both speculative shorts and commercial longs suggests a market at a contentious inflection point. New money is entering with strong conviction on both sides of the trade.
• Concentration: The market does not appear overly concentrated. The largest four traders hold 11.0% of the net long and 7.9% of the net short positions.

Price context

Price series data was not provided for this reporting period. This is a notable data gap, as it prevents a direct correlation between the significant positioning changes and the underlying price action during the week. The analysis is based solely on the positioning and open interest data.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Exhaustion: The rapid liquidation of the Managed Money net long position is a key watchpoint. If this trend continues, it could remove a key pillar of buying support and potentially signal a market top. The +6,417 contract addition to shorts is aggressive and suggests conviction in a move lower.
• Commercial Support: The dramatic reduction in the Commercial net short position to its lowest observed level is a potentially bullish factor. It indicates that producer selling pressure, a natural cap on prices, is easing significantly.
• Volatility Risk: The large increase in Open Interest reflects a buildup of new positions on both sides. This increases the risk of sharp, volatile moves as a directional break could trigger a cascade of stop-losses from these freshly established positions. The conflicting signals between speculators and commercials reinforce this potential for heightened volatility.