Coffee C Futures - COT Brief for Week Ending May 15, 2026

Executive summary

This week saw a significant divergence in positioning between speculative and commercial participants. Managed Money turned decisively more bearish, adding a substantial number of new short positions while trimming longs. In contrast, Producer/Merchants aggressively reduced their net short exposure by adding new long hedges and covering shorts. This dynamic occurred alongside a healthy increase in overall market participation, as indicated by the rise in Open Interest, suggesting new capital is actively entering the market on both sides of the trade. The Managed Money net long position, while still large, has pulled back from its recent highs, signaling a potential shift in sentiment.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): The net long position fell to +30,370 contracts, a decrease of 4,473 from the prior week's +34,843 contracts. While still a significant net long posture, this marks a notable reversal after the position had been building in previous weeks. The current net long consists of 46,876 long contracts versus 16,506 short contracts.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group holds a net short position of -25,629 contracts (38,841 longs vs 64,470 shorts). This is a substantial reduction in their net short exposure from -32,058 contracts in the prior week, indicating increased buying/hedging activity.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a modest net long position, which increased slightly to +4,979 contracts from +4,002 contracts the week prior.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The market saw a distinct rotation of risk, with speculators offloading positions to commercials. - Managed Money: The net sale of 4,473 contracts was driven by both long liquidation (-895 contracts) and, more significantly, aggressive new short selling (+3,578 contracts). This is a strong bearish signal from the speculative community. They also increased their spreading positions by 1,883 contracts. - Producer/Merchant: This category was the primary buyer, increasing its net position by 6,429 contracts. The flow was composed of a large addition of new longs (+5,527 contracts) and some short covering (-902 contracts). This strong buying indicates a commercial view that current price levels are attractive for hedging future needs. - Other Reportables: Reduced their net short position, primarily by covering shorts (-1,811 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators was on full display this week. - Speculators (Managed Money) took a more pessimistic view, adding fresh shorts and exiting longs. This could be a reaction to recent price action or a change in their forward-looking macro or fundamental view. - Commercials (Producer/Merchants) acted as the counterparty, significantly increasing their long exposure. This group is presumed to have the best insight into the physical supply/demand balance. Their strong buying suggests they are actively locking in input costs, viewing current levels as a value zone. This clash of opinions is a key dynamic to watch.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest rose by a healthy 6,204 contracts to 182,249. The fact that OI increased alongside the build in speculative shorts gives more weight to the new bearish positioning, as it reflects new money entering the market rather than just a squaring of old positions.
• Participation: The total number of traders in the market was stable at 343.
• Concentration: Market concentration remains moderate. The largest four traders hold 12.6% of the net long position and 10.0% of the net short position. This does not suggest an overly crowded trade among the largest participants.

Price context

Price series data was not provided for the reporting period. Therefore, it is not possible to correlate these positioning changes with specific price action (e.g., whether the addition of speculative shorts occurred into a price rally or a technical breakdown).

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: Despite the week's reduction, the Managed Money net long of +30,370 contracts is still historically large. This position remains vulnerable to further liquidation, which could exacerbate any downward price moves.
• Speculator vs. Commercial Divergence: The sharp contrast in weekly flows is a major watchpoint. If commercials continue to buy and reduce their net short, it could provide a strong floor for the market. Conversely, if speculators continue to press the short side, it could overwhelm commercial buying in the short term.
• Short-Covering Risk: The +3,578 new short contracts added by Managed Money could become fuel for a rally. If the market finds a bid, these fresh shorts could be forced to cover, creating a potential short squeeze.