Coffee Futures (COT) Report: Week Ending 2026-04-10

Executive summary

Speculative positioning in Coffee futures saw a modest reduction this week, though the overall stance remains strongly bullish. Managed Money trimmed their net long position for the first time in several weeks, primarily by adding new shorts and liquidating some longs. Despite this, their net long of +27,587 contracts remains near the highest levels seen in recent history. Commercials (Producers/Merchants) used the opportunity to reduce their large net short hedge book, covering nearly 2,800 short contracts. Open interest continues to creep higher, now at the highest level in the provided data, signaling sustained market engagement. The dynamic points to a well-established uptrend with heavy producer hedging being absorbed by bullish speculators, though the size of the speculative long position remains a key risk.

Positioning

• Managed Money: The net long position fell to +27,587 contracts (40,072 long vs. 12,485 short). This is a decrease from last week's +30,711 contracts but is still significantly higher than levels seen earlier in the year (e.g., +16,465 in early March).
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group remains heavily net short at -26,032 contracts (38,359 long vs. 64,391 short). This is a substantial hedge but represents a lightening of their position from the prior two weeks, which were closer to -30,000 contracts net short.
• Swap Dealers: This category holds a net long position of +4,345 contracts (26,854 long vs. 22,509 short), a slight increase from the previous week.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money displayed clear risk reduction. They sold 1,534 long contracts while simultaneously adding 1,590 new short positions, leading to a net position reduction of 3,124 contracts.
• Producers/Merchants were net buyers this week. They added 1,027 long contracts and, more significantly, covered 2,791 short contracts. This indicates a pause or reversal in the heavy producer selling pressure seen previously.
• Swap Dealers modestly increased their overall footprint, adding 699 longs and 270 shorts.
• Non-reportable (small speculator) positions saw a notable flow, with shorts increasing by 790 contracts while longs decreased by 108.

Commercials vs speculators

The market structure reflects a classic division between commercials and speculators. - Commercials are deeply net short, consistent with producers hedging future production to lock in favorable prices. The -26,032 contract net short position, while large, is less extreme than the -29,850 contract position from the week prior, suggesting hedging activity may have slowed. - Managed Money is the primary counterparty, holding a conviction long position of +27,587 contracts. This group is providing the liquidity for commercial hedging and is positioned for further price appreciation. The slight reduction this week may indicate some profit-taking or increased caution at current levels.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total market participation edged higher, with OI rising by 640 contracts to 176,140. This is the highest level in the provided dataset, continuing an upward trend from a low of 156,645 in late February and suggesting new capital continues to enter the market.
• Concentration: The market does not appear to be overly concentrated among the largest traders. The top 4 traders by net position hold 10.3% of the long side and 10.5% of the short side. These relatively balanced and moderate figures suggest a diverse group of large participants.

Price context

Price data was not provided for this analysis. Therefore, positioning changes must be interpreted without direct correlation to market price action during the reporting week.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position remains a primary market risk. At +27,587 contracts, it represents a crowded trade that is vulnerable to rapid, cascading liquidation if the market narrative shifts, which could accelerate any price declines.
• Producer Hedging Activity: The reduction in the Commercial net short position is a key development. Watch to see if this trend continues. A sustained decrease in producer hedging would remove a significant source of supply from the futures market and could be very price supportive.
• Sustained Open Interest: The continued rise in open interest alongside the large speculative long position is bullish, indicating new buyers are entering. A reversal in this trend, where open interest begins to fall while prices stall or decline, could be an early warning sign that the uptrend is losing momentum.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.