Coffee C Futures - COT Report for week ending January 30, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers the week ending January 30, 2026. Speculative participants, led by Managed Money, significantly increased their bullish bets on Coffee, pushing their net long position to the highest level in the five-week reporting window. This was met with forceful selling from the commercial sector, as Producers/Merchants expanded their net short position to its largest size over the same period, indicating aggressive hedging. The divergence between these two key groups has widened notably. Open interest rose, signaling new capital entering the market and adding conviction to the opposing views.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position expanded to +35,947 contracts (47,512 long vs. 11,565 short). This is the largest net long position for this category in the provided five-week data series, surpassing the +35,313 contracts held on December 23.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position deepened to -33,035 contracts (42,760 long vs. 75,795 short). This represents the largest net short position for commercials in the last five weeks, indicating significant producer selling/hedging.
• Swap Dealers: This group holds a nearly flat position, shifting to a small net short of -1,047 contracts (23,753 long vs. 24,800 short).
• Nonreportable (Small Speculators): Small traders maintain a modest net long position of +1,348 contracts (7,625 long vs. 6,277 short).

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money was the primary buyer this week, increasing their net position by 2,483 contracts. This was driven by the addition of 1,680 new long contracts and the covering of 803 short contracts, a clear signal of bullish conviction.
• Producers/Merchants were the primary sellers, adding a substantial 4,587 contracts to their net short position. This was almost entirely driven by the addition of 5,258 new short positions, while longs saw a smaller increase of 671 contracts.
• Swap Dealers were slight net buyers, adding 656 contracts to their net position, likely reflecting their role in facilitating the larger flows between other participants.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators intensified this week. - Speculators (Managed Money) are now positioned at their most bullish level in at least five weeks. Their gross long position (47,512 contracts) represents 27.2% of total open interest, while their short position is a relatively small 6.6%. - Commercials (Producers/Merchants) are positioned at their most bearish level in the same period. Their gross short position (75,795 contracts) is a commanding 43.3% of total open interest, dwarfing their 24.4% share on the long side. - This widening gap signifies a strong disagreement on market direction: speculators are betting on a continued price rise, while producers are increasingly taking advantage of current levels to hedge future output.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest (OI) rose by 4,453 contracts to 174,890, the highest level in the five-week period. The increase in OI alongside the expansion of both speculative net longs and commercial net shorts indicates that new money entered the market, rather than just a transfer of risk between existing participants. This suggests growing conviction on both sides.
• Market concentration on the short side is notable. The largest 8 traders account for 30.2% of the total gross short position, compared to 25.4% on the long side. This suggests that the hedging activity from large commercial entities is a significant market feature.

Price context

Price data for the corresponding period was not provided in the input. Therefore, a direct correlation between the significant positioning changes this week and daily price action cannot be established in this report.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position at a five-week high (+35,947 contracts) makes the market vulnerable to a sharp correction if bullish catalysts fail to materialize. A sudden shift in sentiment could trigger a cascade of long liquidation.
• Heavy Producer Hedging: The aggressive expansion of commercial short positions could act as a significant headwind for prices. It indicates that producers see current price levels as attractive for selling, potentially capping further upside rallies.
• Widening Divergence: The growing chasm between bullish speculators and bearish commercials is the key dynamic to watch. The resolution of this tension often precedes a significant price move. While commercial positioning is often seen as informed, strong speculative momentum can drive trends further than fundamentals might suggest.