COT Weekly Analysis: September 29, 2026

Executive Summary

1. Massive Speculative Liquidation in Natural Gas (NG): Managed Money slashed net exposure by -67,252 contracts in a single week via a combination of gross long liquidations (-46,041) and fresh short initiations (+21,211), pushing net positioning deeper into bearish territory amid a broader contraction in open interest (-55,017 contracts).
2. Aggressive Long Trimming Across Grains & Oilseeds: Speculators systematically pared long exposure across Corn (ZC, -22,877 net change) and Soybeans (ZS, -18,601 net change), while commercial producers aggressively covered short hedges, signalling supply hedging adjustments.
3. Speculative De-risking in Crude Oil WTI (CL): Managed Money trimmed net longs by -22,236 contracts (long liquidation of -14,162 and short additions of +8,074), while open interest rose by +36,765 contracts, highlighting institutional rotation and short building.

Precious & Industrial Metals

Gold (GC)

Current Net Position: +120,318 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -7,071 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money reduced gross longs by -3,988 contracts and added +3,083 gross shorts, contracting their net long positioning from +127,389 to +120,318 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Commercials (Producer/Merchant) covered -5,033 short hedge positions against an addition of +481 longs, reducing net commercial short exposure to -21,263 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Aggregate Open Interest fell by -6,344 contracts (-1.53%) to 406,456, indicating long liquidation and profit-taking rather than aggressive new trend establishment.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Heavy swap dealer short exposure (244,539 contracts, representing 60.2% of total open interest) continues to provide a structural cap, though short-covering from swap dealers (-6,213 contracts) lessened immediate overhead pressure.

Silver (SI)

Current Net Position: +7,614 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -5,695 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money underwent a sharp weekly retreat, shedding -2,417 longs while adding +3,278 shorts, nearly halving their net long position down to +7,614 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers/Merchants trimmed short hedges by -1,015 contracts and added +985 longs, acting as the stabilizing counterparty to speculative dumping.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest rose modestly by +573 contracts to 107,047, confirming that fresh speculative short-selling helped drive the positioning shift.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Speculative net longs sit at a low relative base (15.8% gross long vs. 8.7% gross short), increasing vulnerability to a sharp mean reversion or short squeeze if technical support holds.

Platinum (PL)

Current Net Position: +8,256 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -1,672 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money increased gross shorts by +1,608 contracts while liquidating -64 longs, reducing net speculative longs to +8,256 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers/Merchants aggressively bought back short hedges by -2,769 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest contracted by -1,327 contracts to 64,046, consistent with commercial de-risking and consolidation.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Commercial short-covering outpaced speculative short initiations, suggesting producer reluctance to lock in sales at current market levels.

Palladium (PA)

Current Net Position: -7,962 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -1,956 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Speculators extended their heavily polarized short bias, adding +1,668 gross shorts (bringing managed money shorts to 11,702 contracts, or 62.9% of total open interest) and shedding -288 longs.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers added +353 longs and covered -219 shorts, sitting roughly balanced at -97 net short contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest jumped by +1,872 contracts (+11.19%) to 18,602, confirming that the speculative short trade is backed by substantial new capital inflows.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Extreme sentiment polarization with Managed Money holding 62.9% of the market on the short side creates an elevated risk of a violent short covering rally upon any supply disruption.

Energy

Crude Oil WTI (CL)

Current Net Position: +79,592 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -22,236 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money executed significant de-risking, shedding -14,162 gross longs and initiating +8,074 fresh shorts. Spreading activity surged by +26,718 contracts to 302,987 contracts (16.1% of open interest).
• Commercial Hedging: Commercials moved in direct opposition to hot money, adding +8,429 longs and covering -8,210 shorts, expanding their net long positioning to +319,539 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest expanded by +36,765 contracts to 1,878,576, indicating aggressive short entry by non-commercials rather than pure long liquidation.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Commercial accumulation into speculative weakness suggests physical participants see strong baseline value, while speculative gross short buildup (+8,074 contracts) raises short-squeeze optionality.

Natural Gas (NG)

Current Net Position: -132,799 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -67,252 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money underwent one of its sharpest weekly sentiment downgrades of the quarter, dumping -46,041 longs and adding +21,211 shorts, bringing gross short exposure to 353,321 contracts (19.8% of total open interest).
• Commercial Hedging: Producer/Merchants remained relatively muted on the physical side (adding +2,148 longs, trimming -7,488 shorts), leaving Swap Dealers net long +227,587 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Total Open Interest plummeted by -55,017 contracts to 1,782,129, pointing to an extensive structural unwind of outright and spread positions.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Speculative net positioning is heavily net short (-132,799 contracts). A rapid change in seasonal fundamentals could trigger disorderly short-covering across NYMEX and linked ICE basis hubs.

Gasoline RBOB (RB)

Current Net Position: +94,186 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -1,852 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money trimmed -3,529 longs and covered -1,677 shorts, moderately cooling their net long positioning to +94,186 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producer/Merchants covered -8,544 short hedge positions while cutting -5,991 longs, moderating their net short stance to -90,259 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest dropped by -18,245 contracts (-5.05%) to 342,854, underscoring broad-based contract expirations and seasonal liquidation.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Speculators maintain a disproportionately low gross short exposure (3.1% of total open interest), keeping the net posture vulnerable to further long liquidation if refining margins compress.

Agriculture

Corn (ZC)

Current Net Position: +381,220 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -22,877 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money executed heavy long liquidation (-31,623 contracts) while covering -8,746 shorts, trimming their net long stance to +381,220 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers and merchants added +34,006 gross longs while trimming -6,492 shorts, reducing net commercial short exposure from -773,483 to -732,985 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Total Open Interest increased marginally by +2,812 contracts to 1,857,317 as spreading positions expanded (+24,895 contracts in Managed Money).

🚩 Risk Signals

• Despite the weekly pullback, speculative net long posture remains substantial (+381,220 contracts), maintaining a crowded long overhang if harvest pressure mounts.

Soybeans (ZS)

Current Net Position: +246,558 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -18,601 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money shed -19,867 longs against minor short covering of -1,266 contracts, bringing net longs down to +246,558 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Commercials absorbed the selling, expanding gross longs by +13,555 contracts and covering -17,540 shorts (net change +31,095 contracts).
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest dropped by -24,101 contracts to 1,090,227, highlighting institutional capital withdrawal rather than aggressive new short positioning.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Speculative gross shorts remain negligible at 3.1% of open interest (34,317 contracts), indicating long positioning remains asymmetric and susceptible to further profit-taking.

Wheat-SRW (ZW)

Current Net Position: -22,109 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -10,093 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money flipped to a more defensive stance, dumping -6,054 longs and adding +4,039 shorts, expanding net short exposure to -22,109 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers covered -5,984 shorts and added +5,675 longs, shifting their net short posture down to -57,195 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest was flat (-137 contracts) at 483,142, reflecting rotational positioning across participant classes.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Commercial net short exposure contracted by +11,659 contracts, reflecting commercial willingness to absorb speculative sales near current support levels.

Wheat-HRW (KE)

Current Net Position: +30,677 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -9,958 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money reduced longs by -5,728 contracts and added +4,230 shorts, narrowing their net long position to +30,677 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers and merchants aggressively covered -6,936 short hedges while adding +2,175 longs.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest declined by -5,413 contracts to 306,523, consistent with long-side de-risking.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Divergence between SRW (net short) and HRW (net long) narrowed this week as speculative profit-taking hit HRW long positions.

Cotton (CT)

Current Net Position: +67,837 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -8,345 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money liquidated -4,532 longs and added +3,813 shorts, bringing net longs down to +67,837 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Commercials added +13,074 longs and +6,577 shorts, reflecting seasonal harvest hedge adjustments.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest increased by +5,478 contracts to 389,494, confirming new position entry across commercial and speculative shorts.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Commercial short hedging remains elevated at 226,929 contracts (58.3% of total open interest), presenting persistent producer hedging resistance overhead.

Sugar (SB)

Current Net Position: +218,336 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +1,707 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money was virtually unchanged on a net basis (+979 longs, -728 shorts), maintaining a strong net long posture of +218,336 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers aggressively unwound positions on both sides, cutting -28,629 longs and -23,412 shorts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest contracted sharply by -48,591 contracts (-4.23%) to 1,099,176 due to commercial book-clearing.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Commercial net short exposure remains massive at -345,358 contracts (48.9% gross short), though speculative momentum has plateaued.

Coffee (KC)

Current Net Position: +16,206 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +400 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money added +1,435 longs and +1,035 shorts, marginally growing their net long positioning to +16,206 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers added +2,901 short hedges while trimming -592 longs, expanding net short exposure to -16,027 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest grew by +1,873 contracts to 154,908, showing incremental two-way flow.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Speculative long positioning remains modest relative to historical peaks, with commercial hedging keeping net polarization contained.

Cocoa (CC)

Current Net Position: -16,022 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: +384 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money added +1,075 longs and +691 shorts, while spreading exposure surged by +5,887 contracts to 29,155 (15.9% of OI).
• Commercial Hedging: Producers reduced short hedges by -1,065 contracts while holding long hedges virtually unchanged (-67 contracts).
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest expanded by +4,924 contracts (+2.75%) to 183,888, largely driven by inter-month spreading activity.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Managed Money holds an unusual net short stance (-16,022 contracts, 18.8% gross short vs. 10.1% gross long) while producer short exposure remains subdued (35.3%), maintaining mean-reversion upside risks.

Livestock

Live Cattle (LC)

Current Net Position: +53,193 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +4,103 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money expanded net longs by +4,103 contracts via +1,452 new longs and -2,651 short-covering contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Commercials increased short hedges by +7,670 contracts, raising gross commercial short positioning to 137,427 contracts (46.8% of OI).
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest rose by +8,750 contracts (+3.07%) to 293,639, demonstrating healthy trend participation backed by capital inflows.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Commercial short hedging expanding in lockstep with speculative net buying indicates institutional supply is readily meeting speculative demand at current price levels.

Feeder Cattle (FC)

Current Net Position: +8,166 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +161 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money added both longs (+1,122) and shorts (+961), keeping net speculative length steady at +8,166 contracts.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers added +373 shorts while shedding -709 longs.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest ticked up +185 contracts to 62,168.

🚩 Risk Signals

• Positioning remains balanced across categories without extreme polarization.

Lean Hogs (LH)

Current Net Position: -50,635 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -8,495 contracts

🔍 Key Insights

• Speculative Aggression: Managed Money heavily expanded short exposure, adding +7,621 shorts and liquidating -874 longs, expanding their net short position to -50,635 contracts (38.8% gross short).
• Commercial Hedging: Producers covered -2,522 shorts and added +1,456 longs, moving to a nearly neutral net position of -3,019 contracts.
• Open Interest Context: Open Interest grew by +2,130 contracts to 289,843, confirming strong momentum behind the speculative short trade.

🚩 Risk Signals

• With speculative gross short exposure reaching 112,505 contracts and commercial hedgers pulling back short protection, the risk of a sharp technical short squeeze is elevated.