COT Weekly Analysis: September 22, 2026
Executive Summary
- Massive Short Covering in Natural Gas (NG): Managed Money executed an aggressive short squeeze, covering 32,457 short contracts in NYMEX Natural Gas while adding 2,201 longs, resulting in a net bullish swing of +34,658 contracts amid rising open interest.
- Aggressive Long Accumulation in Soybeans (ZS) and Gasoline RBOB (RB): Speculators expanded their net-long footprint substantially, adding 18,161 gross longs in Soybeans and 12,408 gross longs in Gasoline RBOB, signaling strong trend-following capital deployment.
- Broad Liquidation in Crude Oil WTI (CL) & Sugar (SB): Massive contract roll-offs and gross position unwindings hit WTI Crude (Open Interest down 113,953 contracts) and Sugar No. 11 (Open Interest down 71,756 contracts), pointing to structural de-risking rather than directional conviction.
Precious & Industrial Metals
Gold (GC)
Current Net Position: +127,389 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -5,727 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money reduced exposure on both sides of the book, trimming 6,695 longs and covering 968 shorts. Gross longs stand at 135,699 contracts versus just 8,310 gross shorts, keeping speculators heavily skewed long (32.9% of total open interest). * Commercial Hedging: Commercials (Producer/Merchant) slightly covered gross shorts (+1,323 longs, +39 shorts), maintaining a net short position of -26,777 contracts, while Swap Dealers absorbed speculative selling by expanding gross shorts by 2,402 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Total open interest increased by 2,901 contracts to 412,800, indicating that managed money profit-taking was met with fresh liquidity entering via other reportable and non-reportable participants.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculative gross short exposure remains near historical floors (2.0% of open interest), leaving the market vulnerable to sharp long-liquidation cascades if key technical support levels falter.
Silver (SI)
Current Net Position: +13,309 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +185 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money trimmed both long (-902) and short (-1,087) positions while adding +1,295 spreading contracts. Gross longs stand at 19,303 contracts against 5,994 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers expanded their net short hedge to -18,512 contracts (longs -665, shorts +493), reflecting producer pricing at elevated spot levels. * Open Interest Context: Open interest expanded by 2,729 contracts to 106,474, driven by a surge in non-reportable retail long buying (+2,644 contracts).
🚩 Risk Signals * The large concentration of short positioning held by Swap Dealers (46.0% of total OI) represents commercial resistance against speculative breakouts.
Platinum (PL)
Current Net Position: +9,928 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +956 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Money managers built directional longs (+1,486 contracts) while adding modest shorts (+530 contracts), expanding their net long to 9,928 contracts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers added 515 longs and 305 shorts, holding net short positioning steady at -11,759 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest contracted slightly by 105 contracts to 65,373, suggesting position rotation rather than substantial new capital inflows.
🚩 Risk Signals * Spreading positions decreased sharply (-1,869 contracts), reflecting unwinding of multi-leg relative value trades in favor of outright directional bets.
Palladium (PA)
Current Net Position: -6,006 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -318 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money reinforced their structural bearish stance, shedding 245 longs and adding 73 shorts. Speculators hold 10,034 gross shorts (60.0% of total OI) against 4,028 longs. * Commercial Hedging: Commercial entities showed muted activity (-67 longs, -53 shorts), holding a modest net short position of -669 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest was virtually flat (+23 contracts to 16,730), reflecting stagnant overall market liquidity.
🚩 Risk Signals * With gross shorts representing 60.0% of the entire market, Palladium remains primed for violent short-covering rallies if supply-side catalysts emerge.
Energy
Crude Oil WTI (CL)
Current Net Position: +101,828 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -4,451 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money net positioning weakened as funds added 5,745 gross shorts while adding only 1,294 gross longs. Money managers hold 223,190 longs versus 121,362 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers engaged in heavy gross de-risking, cutting 35,763 longs and 31,254 shorts, while Swap Dealers unwound 6,316 longs and 5,794 shorts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest collapsed by 113,953 contracts (-5.8%) to 1,841,811 contracts, driven by contract roll-offs and portfolio de-leveraging across all major institutional categories.
🚩 Risk Signals * The significant drop in open interest coupled with speculative short additions indicates waning conviction from trend-following bulls and momentum shifting toward consolidation.
Natural Gas (NG)
Current Net Position: -65,547 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: +34,658 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Speculators orchestrated a massive short squeeze in NYMEX benchmark contracts, aggressively buying back 32,457 short contracts and adding 2,201 longs. Managed Money gross shorts declined to 332,110 contracts. * Commercial Hedging: Commercial producers absorbed speculative buying by expanding short hedges (+12,155 shorts vs. +5,642 longs), widening their net short exposure. * Open Interest Context: Total open interest grew by 17,143 contracts to 1,837,146, confirming that fresh capital accompanied the sharp short-covering move.
🚩 Risk Signals * While net positioning improved sharply (+34,658 contracts), Managed Money remains net short by 65,547 contracts with 35.6% of open interest tied up in spreading, indicating persistent volatility and tail-risk hedging.
Gasoline RBOB (RB)
Current Net Position: +96,038 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +12,867 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Funds deployed aggressive long capital, boosting gross longs by 12,408 contracts while covering 459 shorts. Speculators now hold 108,324 longs against just 12,286 shorts (8.8:1 long-to-short ratio). * Commercial Hedging: Producers heavily liquidated gross positions, cutting 9,380 longs and 8,041 shorts, maintaining a net short hedge of -92,812 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest expanded by 3,096 contracts to 361,099, confirming that new institutional buying powered the rally.
🚩 Risk Signals * Managed Money long concentration has reached 30.0% of total market open interest with shorts down to 3.4%. The trade is crowded, increasing mean-reversion risk on unexpected inventory builds.
Heating Oil (HO)
Current Net Position: +9,437 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -3,263 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money net positioning deteriorated, driven by fresh short initiation (+3,178 shorts) and modest long trimming (-85 longs). Gross positions stand at 35,142 longs and 25,705 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers reduced both sides of their ledger (-715 longs, -1,669 shorts), trimming aggregate net short exposure to -83,131 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest slipped by 2,219 contracts to 274,811, pointing to mild capital outflows across the middle distillate complex.
🚩 Risk Signals * Managed Money long-to-short ratio compressed to 1.37:1 from over 1.55:1 last week, demonstrating cooling speculative enthusiasm heading into seasonal transition periods.
Agriculture & Softs
Corn (ZC)
Current Net Position: +404,097 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -10,363 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money trimmed gross longs by 12,272 contracts and covered 1,909 shorts. Despite the reduction, speculators retain a massive net-long stance of +404,097 contracts (471,466 longs vs. 67,369 shorts). * Commercial Hedging: Commercials bought back hedges (-12,301 longs, -9,124 shorts), holding a structural net short position of -773,483 contracts (58.7% of total OI). * Open Interest Context: Open interest grew by 10,681 contracts to 1,854,505, fueled by a +22,586 contract surge in speculative spreading.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculative net length remains elevated near cyclical highs, while producer hedging accounts for nearly 59% of gross open interest, creating strong overhead commercial resistance.
Soybeans (ZS)
Current Net Position: +265,159 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +23,658 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Money managers ramped up bullish exposure aggressively, adding 18,161 longs and buying back 5,497 shorts. Speculative gross longs reached 300,742 contracts versus 35,583 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Commercials responded by expanding net short hedges (-322,240 contracts net short), adding 14,225 gross shorts against 4,314 gross longs. * Open Interest Context: Total open interest grew by 9,448 contracts to 1,114,328, demonstrating robust institutional volume supporting the bullish move.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculators hold an 8.45:1 long-to-short ratio. Any unexpected bearish yield data or export slowdowns could trigger severe long-liquidation pressure.
Wheat-SRW (ZW)
Current Net Position: -12,016 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -8,342 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money turned net bearish (-12,016 contracts), liquidating 6,997 longs and adding 1,345 shorts. Speculators hold 88,801 longs against 100,817 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers covered 3,198 shorts and added 1,567 longs, reducing net short exposure to -68,854 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest fell by 1,859 contracts to 483,279, indicating net liquidation and capital withdrawal from the Chicago benchmark.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculative positioning has flipped net short for the first time in recent weeks, signaling that trend-following algorithms are aligning with broader grain complex supply headwinds.
Wheat-HRW (KE)
Current Net Position: +40,635 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -3,778 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money reduced net length, cutting 2,115 longs and adding 1,663 shorts, bringing net positioning to +40,635 contracts (76,739 longs vs. 36,104 shorts). * Commercial Hedging: Producers covered 4,057 shorts and closed 649 longs, reducing their net short position to -107,988 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest rose by 1,100 contracts to 311,936, underpinned by an increase in speculative spreading (+2,559 contracts).
🚩 Risk Signals * Kansas City HRW net length is eroding faster than spreading activity, reflecting weakening speculative support for the hard red winter premium over Chicago SRW.
Cotton No. 2 (CT)
Current Net Position: +76,182 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -15,753 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money underwent sharp long liquidation, dumping 15,373 gross longs while adding 380 shorts. Speculators retain 88,885 longs versus 12,703 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Commercials absorbed the selling by adding 13,742 gross longs against 1,950 gross shorts, reducing their net short position to -154,611 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest expanded by 3,810 contracts to 384,016, with commercial re-balancing and speculative spreading absorbing the long exodus.
🚩 Risk Signals * A rapid one-week reduction of 15,753 net-long contracts highlights significant profit-taking and momentum deceleration in the fiber market.
Sugar No. 11 (SB)
Current Net Position: +216,629 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -8,801 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Funds trimmed 7,444 gross longs and added 1,357 shorts, while unwinding 17,830 spreading contracts. Gross speculative positions stand at 313,924 longs against 97,295 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers aggressively unwound hedges, cutting 17,857 longs and 22,808 shorts, while Swap Dealers closed 19,102 gross shorts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest dropped by 71,756 contracts (-5.9%) to 1,147,767, reflecting massive roll-off and position liquidation across all trading groups.
🚩 Risk Signals * The large drop in participation across commercial and non-commercial participants points to an exhaustion of the recent trend and transition into a broader consolidation range.
Coffee C (KC)
Current Net Position: +15,806 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: -4,855 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money trimmed 2,091 longs and initiated 2,764 new shorts. Speculators hold 33,136 longs versus 17,330 shorts. * Commercial Hedging: Producers aggressively covered short hedges (+4,289 longs, -3,623 shorts), pulling net commercial short positioning down to -12,534 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest increased by 2,577 contracts to 153,035, indicating new short positions from speculators and swap dealers (+2,025 shorts) entering the market.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculative net length has dropped by nearly 24% in a single week, with commercial buying absorbing the speculative distribution.
Cocoa (CC)
Current Net Position: -16,406 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -6,867 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Money managers accelerated bearish positioning, dumping 5,145 longs and adding 1,722 shorts. Speculators are net short -16,406 contracts (17,515 longs vs. 33,921 shorts). * Commercial Hedging: Producers covered 4,987 shorts and added 4,272 longs, reducing their net short position significantly to -14,481 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest contracted by 3,727 contracts to 178,964, pointing to broad speculative de-risking.
🚩 Risk Signals * Managed Money is extending net-short positioning just as Commercials are actively covering shorts and adding longs, a classic smart-money accumulation pattern signaling a potential medium-term price floor.
Livestock
Live Cattle (LC)
Current Net Position: +49,090 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +1,394 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money covered 1,810 shorts while trimming 416 longs, lifting net length to +49,090 contracts (80,270 longs vs. 31,180 shorts). * Commercial Hedging: Producers added 2,384 longs and 3,599 shorts, keeping net producer hedging at -87,543 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest rose by 2,771 contracts to 284,889, supported by commercial hedging and other reportable spreading.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculative short covering drove this week's net increase rather than fresh long buying, indicating tactical profit taking rather than high-conviction momentum expansion.
Feeder Cattle (FC)
Current Net Position: +8,005 contracts (Bullish) | WoW Net Change: +794 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Managed Money added 467 gross longs and covered 327 gross shorts, expanding net long exposure to +8,005 contracts (16,242 longs vs. 8,237 shorts). * Commercial Hedging: Producers added 820 longs and 881 shorts, maintaining a balanced commercial footprint. * Open Interest Context: Total open interest grew by 2,350 contracts (+3.9%) to 61,983, backed by new speculative spreading (+924 contracts) and other reportable participation.
🚩 Risk Signals * Spreading positions represent 18.6% of open interest, reflecting significant calendar spread positioning as traders manage feedlot margin spreads.
Lean Hogs (LH)
Current Net Position: -42,140 contracts (Bearish) | WoW Net Change: -4,372 contracts
🔍 Key Insights * Speculative Aggression: Money managers increased gross short exposure significantly (+7,737 shorts) while adding 3,365 longs, pushing net short exposure deeper to -42,140 contracts (62,744 longs vs. 104,884 shorts). * Commercial Hedging: Producers covered 1,821 gross shorts and added 289 longs, reducing their net short position to -6,997 contracts. * Open Interest Context: Open interest increased by 1,790 contracts to 287,713, confirming short-side momentum entry from speculative funds.
🚩 Risk Signals * Speculative gross shorts now comprise 36.5% of total open interest. Commercials are approaching a net-neutral stance, creating conditions where an unexpected fundamental shift could trigger a short squeeze.