GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4200
Reporting Date: 2026-10-15T18:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 15, 2026 at 06:25 PM
- Completed At
- October 15, 2026 at 06:25 PM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 8.1861
},
"daily_series": [
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 5.3042,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 3.3458,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 59.6958,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 61.6542
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 10.125,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.575,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 54.875,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 56.425
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 19.125,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 17.6875,
"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 45.875,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 47.3125
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 11.0125,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 14.9833,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.9875,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 50.0167
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 7.2625,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 12.3708,
"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 57.7375,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 52.6292
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 5.2292,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.9958,
"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 56.0042
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-21",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.1208
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 61.7583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 54.4208
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 9.1875,
"valid_date": "2026-10-23",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.8125
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-27",
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-28",
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},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-29",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 65.5833,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 48.2458
}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 2.5583,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 76.2834,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 189.1833
},
{
"id": "nyc",
"lat": 40.71,
"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 5.3889
},
"daily_series": [
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-29",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 65.7417,
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],
"demand_weight": 0.1,
"noaa_region_hint": "east",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 20.2209,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 31.6958,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 13.3792,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 88.5375
}
],
"run_deltas": {
"prior_fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-15T12:25:14Z",
"prior_reporting_date": "2026-10-15T12:00:00Z",
"delta_convergence_score": -0.012,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 0.0902,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": -13.6388,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 0.4742,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": -3.0623,
"delta_weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 0.4253
},
"source_url": "https://customer-api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast",
"fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-15T18:25:10Z",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-15T18:00:00Z",
"schema_version": "1",
"report_decision": {
"notify": false,
"reason": "off_cycle",
"report": "on_change",
"embeddings": false,
"graph_ingest": "with_report",
"generate_report": false
},
"temperature_unit": "°F",
"convergence_score": 0.162251,
"degree_day_base_f": 65.0,
"forecast_init_utc": "2026-10-15T00:00Z",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 25.13,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 82.5515,
"location_catalog_fingerprint": "59f98a47f7b1bf8e9d0d8da813939ec433b680e19ff804ae18b5bb4c3f183bc8",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 14.9692,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 149.4023,
"weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 5.1633
}
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GfsEcmwfUsDemandHubForecastFeed