Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 15, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

October 15, 2026 at 03:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Early 10/15 Corn, Bean Test Support as Harvest Rolls: Wheat, Cattle Bounce

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Early 10/15 Corn, Bean Test Support as Harvest Rolls: Wheat, Cattle Bounce",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Global tightness in corn and soybeans",
      "Inflation running up",
      "Middle East supply chain dynamics impacting oil",
      "Poor balance sheet for corn",
      "Weather problems in Europe",
      "El Niño impacting Brazil's winter crop",
      "Weak demand in cut-out, domestic, and export for hogs",
      "Seasonally cheaper cold storage for hogs"
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Corn market",
      "Soybean market",
      "Wheat market",
      "Cattle market",
      "Hog market",
      "Inflation",
      "Energy prices",
      "Global supply and demand",
      "Harvest pressure",
      "Weather impacts",
      "Export demand",
      "Technical analysis (moving averages)"
    ],
    "summary": "The grain markets are mixed with corn and soybeans lower due to harvest pressure and recent USDA reports, while wheat is higher on global supply concerns. Inflation data continues to influence all markets, with energy being the primary driver, though grains also show correlation. Cattle are bouncing back after inflation fears, and boxed beef demand remains strong, while hogs are struggling with muted recoveries despite low prices.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market trends, harvest pressure, inflation hedge"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market trends, harvest pressure, export business, balance sheet"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market trends, short covering, global supply"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market trends, inflation fears, demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market trends, contract lows, muted recoveries"
      },
      {
        "name": "Inflation",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "market driver, PPI, CPI"
      },
      {
        "name": "Energy",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "biggest sector in Bloomberg Commodity Index, oil, gasoline, diesel"
      },
      {
        "name": "Middle East",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "supply chain dynamics for oil"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "needs soybeans, increased crush capacity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "weather problems, short wheat crop"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "soybean production, record crop"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "weather pattern impacting Brazil"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "conflict impacting wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "conflict impacting wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "US Dollar",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "market influence"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mike Minor",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "speaker, Professional Ag Marketing"
      },
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "interviewer"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Corn and soybean markets are experiencing harvest pressure.",
        "timestamp": "00:51",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Inflation data (PPI at 6.3%, CPI at 3.7%) has heavily influenced financial, currency, and energy markets.",
        "timestamp": "01:57",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Energy, particularly oil, is the biggest sector in the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the primary driver of recent inflation increases.",
        "timestamp": "02:39",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Grains, especially corn, have a strong correlation with inflation and can be bought by funds as an inflation hedge.",
        "timestamp": "03:17",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn and soybean balance sheets were expected to be tight earlier in the year, attracting funds.",
        "timestamp": "03:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "After recent reports, the corn market's balance sheet is less favorable as an inflation hedge.",
        "timestamp": "03:54",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Globally, both corn and soybean markets are tight, with China needing soybeans and Europe facing weather problems, which provides underlying support.",
        "timestamp": "04:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn is currently trading below its 200-day moving average, and it's important for it to hold above the 477-478 area on December corn.",
        "timestamp": "04:35",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean yields in the US, particularly in areas like Iowa, ended up better than expected due to late-season rains.",
        "timestamp": "05:35",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "China's increased soybean purchases and crush capacity could tighten the soybean balance sheet.",
        "timestamp": "06:07",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brazil is expected to have a record soybean crop of 181.64 million metric tons, but El Niño poses a risk for their winter crop.",
        "timestamp": "06:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "It is advisable to sell soybeans due to better-than-expected yields and good basis, and store corn to wait for better price opportunities.",
        "timestamp": "07:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Wheat is supported by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and very short crops in European regions.",
        "timestamp": "08:17",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cattle markets are bouncing back, with strong demand for boxed beef, especially from the upper-middle class.",
        "timestamp": "09:43",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Hog markets are trying to recover from new contract lows, but recoveries are muted, and low prices are expected to stimulate demand.",
        "timestamp": "10:44",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The cut-out value for hogs is at three-year lows, and retail stores are featuring pork to drive demand.",
        "timestamp": "12:11",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [
      {
        "thesis": "Yields were better than expected, basis is good, and it's expensive with interest to store. Let them go.",
        "direction": "short",
        "conviction": "medium",
        "instrument": "Soybeans",
        "time_horizon": "unspecified"
      },
      {
        "thesis": "Store corn and wait for a better basis opportunity this winter, hoping for price improvement.",
        "direction": "long",
        "conviction": "medium",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "time_horizon": "medium_term"
      }
    ],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "would like to hold",
        "value": "4.75",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "holding just below",
        "value": "4.80",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "don't want to take out much below",
        "value": "4.77-4.78",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "lot of volume",
        "value": "4.60-4.80",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "current price relative to highs",
        "value": "50-60 cents off contract highs",
        "instrument": "Soybeans",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "storing $12 soybeans",
        "value": "12",
        "instrument": "Soybeans",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "trying to bounce off",
        "value": "new contract lows",
        "instrument": "Hogs",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "cut-out value",
        "value": "3-year lows",
        "instrument": "Hogs",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "metric": "WASDE reports",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Quarterly Stocks reports",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "6.3%",
        "metric": "Producer Price Index (PPI)",
        "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics"
      },
      {
        "value": "3.7%",
        "metric": "Consumer Price Index (CPI)",
        "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics"
      },
      {
        "value": "181.64 million metric tons",
        "metric": "Brazil soybean production",
        "source": "CONAB"
      },
      {
        "value": "down 1.3%",
        "metric": "Ground beef prices",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "up about 6%",
        "metric": "Ground beef prices",
        "period": "last year",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "3-year lows",
        "metric": "Cut-out value",
        "source": "USDA"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed analysis of corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and hogs, including market drivers, price movements, and outlooks."
  },
  "video_id": "q751Dwjinxs",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q751Dwjinxs",
  "transcript": "Markets Now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins, and then there are wins you get with Brevant Seeds. Big, game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. And by Golden Harvest. The next generation of seed technology is here, and we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. And welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Rook with Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing. Here on a Thursday morning, we are seeing the grains mixed, corn and soybeans lower, wheat to the plus side. We're actually leaning higher in cattle and mixed in the hogs. All right, Mike, let's talk about the grains first of all. Corn market, what? Seeing some harvest pressure yet or is this market still concerned about the inflation data that we've been seeing? Yeah, a little harvest pressure here. Uh, really kicked on the last week, I would say, last weekend. It seemed like a lot of folks had been switching from soybeans to corn, wrapping up most of the soybean harvest for a lot of areas. Even uh, folks in Iowa who had a pretty late start on things, got a lot done at the end of last week. So, seeing a little harvest pressure here, but we're still in the aftermath, I would argue, of the WASDE reports and the uh, quarterly stocks reports, just yeah, trying to keep the funds interested. And really, at this point, inflation has the best chance of keeping the funds long in these grain markets, uh, even with a little bit more poor balance sheet here. Now, globally, yeah, we're a little tight, so we'll see which one wins out here in the near term, Michelle. Well, and let's talk about inflation. PPI out this morning at 6.3%. CPI yesterday, I think, was at 3.7%. The market was concerned about inflation yesterday. When does it become a positive or a buying catalyst for the funds here in the grains? Yeah, and it's uh, I think the PPI and the CPI news the last two days overall have controlled most of the financial markets, currency, energy, pretty much all markets you look at day to day, I feel like have been influenced heavily by the CPI and PPI news the last couple days. Now, I so I think that's a great starting point for looking at any market movement over the recent near term. Now, even for the entirety of the year, uh, normally what happens is if you want an inflation hedge, if you want to buy commodities in case of inflation running up, there are a few different avenues that the bread baskets look at in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, for example. The biggest sector in that is energy. Oil specifically, especially with the dynamics of uh, the supply chains right now in the Middle East and how that's been developing and and been impacted. That's obviously the choke hold that we've got. And that's basically the sole reason why inflation continued to go up here this last month is just energy focused. When you look at inflation, half of that complex is basically made up of uh, energy prices and gasoline, for example, for the United States consumer and diesel. So, that's the place they want to start. The next thing after that quickly quickly after that is basically energies, then grains follow that quite closely. There's a pretty strong connection between the correlation of inflation and the corn market. So, if you do have higher inflation, they will continue to try to buy the corn market. Now, the way it normally goes though, is where I'm getting to this at is they want to buy something with a tighter balance sheet. Now, in the United States, at the beginning of this year and through the summer, the corn market and soybean market had a pretty good chance of having tight balance sheets. So, it was easy for funds to pile in to buy because of inflation concerns in grain commodities. This time around, after a poor couple reports, adding half a mil, half a billion uh, bushels to ending stocks on the corn market, maybe not quite as friendly of uh, a a hedge against inflation. If it's a big enough problem in oil, you'll probably see that trickle over to the grain market. It definitely helps that globally right now, both of those markets are tight as well. China needs a lot of soybeans, for example, they're proving that. Uh, they've increased their crush capacity tremendously over the last couple years. Europe's got weather problems. The balance sheets are tight globally. So, that'll help keep some interest, I believe, in a good floor under these grains and oil seeds. Meanwhile, corn this morning, taking out the 200-day moving average. It's pretty um, important that holds here, isn't it? I would really like to try to hold this uh, kind of 475. We've been holding just below 480 now in December corn. I would like that old low from the other report date to still hold. Uh, but even the last few days, I don't really want to take out much below this 477, 478 area on Dec corn. And uh, if if it does get taken out, I'd still do think there's a lot of volume on this corn contract between, you know, this 480 to 460 area. So, I think it's going to have to really think about some of these key areas before it just blows through, Michelle. Uh, soybeans also down this morning, even though we got what, 22.5 million bushels of soybean export business confirmed, part of it to China. So, is this harvest pressure or these CONAB numbers that came out this morning? A little harvest pressure still, maybe in light of uh, the reports as well. Most of the reports out there I've been getting from farmers, soybeans ended up better than expected. Even in one of the worst production areas in the United States this year, I'd argue with weather, right where you and I are sitting, uh, the soybean yields have surprised us. We had the late August, September rains and that really saved us. So, I uh, I believe that that WASDE yield, even being at a as high as it was, it could probably go up a little bit. And uh, it I think it's important that we continue to see, you know, after the President G and Trump meeting, we finally, we had a break where they hadn't bought anything from the United States. Now, we're starting to see a lot of purchases over the last couple days here from China again. So, if that continues, I don't know how that soybean balance sheet doesn't get pretty tight, Michelle. Yeah, for sure. And then uh, CONAB came out with their numbers this morning on Brazil, 181.64 million metric tons. That would be a record. So, just a reminder there, right? Yeah, and it's still a big crop. I mean, Brazil increases their acres two to three percent almost every year. They continue with production with a nice linear incline. So, uh, no major changes there, but they're the big wild card this winter. Uh, going forward, December with El Niño, the strongest ever here, uh, they're very vulnerable to a problem this winter and I think that's going to get watched pretty close, but planting pace has been superb, very fast for them. So, not a problem as of yet, fingers crossed. And soybeans have to hold the report day lows here, right? Yeah, I mean, uh, soybeans trending lower, but not tremendously lower. We haven't seen that initial huge break like we saw in the corn market with two bad reports. Soybeans, we're not that far. We're basically 50 cents off contract highs, 60 cents. So, it's not that bad of a price yet. A lot of folks here just wondering what to do about uh, post harvest here. Yeah, and what's your suggestion there, quick? Well, it's really easy to get rid of soybeans. I mean, if you look at it, we're only 50 cents off contract highs. Uh, your yields were better than expected. Uh, it's expensive with interest here, storing $12 soybeans. Basis is actually really good still. Uh, I would let the soybeans go and focus on storing the corn and uh, from that point on, I guess, the corn is more of the difficult decision. If you have to sell it at harvest, what does a guy do after these last two breaks if it isn't sold? The good news is a lot of folks have a lot of corn sold already. And especially in the Western Corn Belt, seems like guys have plenty of space this year with the size of crop they're going to have on corn. So, uh, I I think a lot of folks will store and ignore for the time being. Uh, the carry got pulled back pretty good in the corn market too. So, I'd like to store corn, wait for a better basis opportunity this winter, and hopefully we can get some price improvement along the way. Very quick, wheat, short covering, lower dollar, what's holding the market up today? Well, Russia, Ukraine still at it. That's a pretty good support floor under things. Uh, the European regions as well, very short crop. Uh, they're showing that the last couple days with their prices tremendously higher. So, just very good underlying support on these grains, I think uh, and the wheat is is one really vulnerable uh, to some upside here. Yeah. No, we have been following European price uh, to your point. Cattle market, uh, back up here today. Uh, we got whacked a little bit yesterday on those inflation fears, back up today though. Yeah, I think uh, the inflation fears had a big part to do with the setback we've had the last couple days in this cattle market. And the US dollar's actually down today, even with that PPI print and uh, cattle market trading a little higher at the open this morning. So, bouncing back, uh, we've had a pretty good uptrend. I don't think we're breaking any news there. Uh, technically speaking, it's been a nice steady incline. It it's just uh, there's a lot of fear in that market right now. Uh, one, we've had a pretty good recovery. Retracement wise, is are we running out of time there? Is this about all we'll get? Uh, we'll see. I uh, I don't quite know yet there, but we haven't broke anything technically to make me too worried. It's just guys got a lot of capital stuck into these things and the feeder cattle are so expensive that you're placing right now, it just doesn't pencil out. Are we getting a little boost from boxed beef being back higher though here this morning, you think? Definitely. You know, ground beef was down in September just 1.3% or so, but since last year, we're up about 6%. So, I mean, demand is fantastic. Uh, boxed beef levels are holding in really, really well still. I think the upper middle class is still eating a lot of beef and not backing off. And uh, I think uh, it's become quite the good for the United States of America that beef market has been. Cash market, you think, steady this week? We've had a little steady business. It's it's been steady over the last few weeks. We really haven't seen anything this week. Uh, mainly the biggest thing with cash right now is that the north is significantly under where futures are. The north is significantly under where the southern bids are. A five, six dollar spread there pretty easy. Uh, we'll see if that continues to hold, but we're at that time of the year, right? We start to get a lot of supply in in the northern corn belt this time of the year, which supply is still not the problem really. I mean, cattle are heavy and everything, but uh, supply is still pretty low, Michelle. And the hogs this morning are trying to bounce off of new contract lows, but uh, these recoveries here have been pretty muted, Mike. Well, ending on quite the good note, huh, Michelle here? I mean, the hog market. How low do you go before you turn this thing or put a bottom in? It's difficult because at this point, I hate to even say it, but like your low prices are going to have to cure low prices. And the trend I'm seeing is, well, supply has rallied back again. Supply, we were trending lower two, three percent than last year. Now, it's back to last year's levels if not more, especially when you include the weight side of things. Um, but then when you start to look at just the demand categories, we're still weak in the cut-out. Uh, we can't turn on demand yet, domestically or export. They're both hurting. Uh, it's the wrong time of the year to try to store in cold storage because it's going to get cheaper in a little bit, right, seasonally. So, we're stuck in our in between a rock and an impossible hard place. And what we're looking at now is featuring is going up. The retail stores are saying, guys, pork is cheap, go buy this stuff. We're starting to see that in a greater capacity that you can actually track on a chart on our data library, for example. And uh, that goes for other products too in the retail space, loins, et cetera. It's getting cheap enough now that they're trying to feature it and hopefully low prices can cure low prices here very soon, Michelle. All right, well, we're at three-year lows on this cut-out value, so I would think it's hopefully going to hold here pretty soon. Thanks, Mike. Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing and Markets Now. Tight margins, tough conditions, relentless pressures. At Golden Harvest, we know your challenges don't slow down, but then neither do we. Back by Syngenta R&D and innovations like Durac trait technology, we pair locally tested solutions with seed advisor expertise to deliver real results on your acres. Because when it comes to next-gen technology, we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Durac hybrids now available for the 2027 season. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You win so big, the very ground beneath your feet cries tears of joy. You win so big, that second place feels like a participation trophy. You win so big, you might as well be harvesting fairy treasure. Oh, sorry, just one more. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You hit the damn jackpot. Don't just win. Win. Talk with your retailer or visit brevant.com/jackpot to get started.",
  "description": "Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-15T14:36:06Z",
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