GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4178
Reporting Date: 2026-10-15T06:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 15, 2026 at 06:25 AM
- Completed At
- October 15, 2026 at 06:25 AM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 6.0687
},
"daily_series": [
{
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"hdd_gfs": 5.6292,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 4.2417,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 59.3708,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 60.7583
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 9.9625,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 9.1833,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 55.0375,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.8167
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 49.5583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 46.8958
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 15.6875,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.6833,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 49.3125
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 57.9583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.625
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
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},
{
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},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-29",
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}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 149.2751,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 158.7803
},
{
"id": "nyc",
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"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
"demand_weight": 0.1,
"noaa_region_hint": "east",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 17.95,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 38.0209,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 15.6958,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 75.5209
}
],
"run_deltas": {
"prior_fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-15T00:25:15Z",
"prior_reporting_date": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z",
"delta_convergence_score": 0.0482,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": -6.8239,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 45.41,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 0.8833,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": -1.4852,
"delta_weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": -1.5223
},
"source_url": "https://customer-api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast",
"fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-15T06:25:01Z",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-15T06:00:00Z",
"schema_version": "1",
"report_decision": {
"notify": false,
"reason": "off_cycle",
"report": "on_change",
"embeddings": false,
"graph_ingest": "with_report",
"generate_report": false
},
"temperature_unit": "°F",
"convergence_score": 0.203637,
"degree_day_base_f": 65.0,
"forecast_init_utc": "2026-10-15T00:00Z",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 16.7831,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 118.1874,
"location_catalog_fingerprint": "59f98a47f7b1bf8e9d0d8da813939ec433b680e19ff804ae18b5bb4c3f183bc8",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 18.5262,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 135.5753,
"weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.9107
}
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GfsEcmwfUsDemandHubForecastFeed