Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 14, 2026 at 07:17 PM

Completed At

October 14, 2026 at 07:18 PM

Duration

2 minutes

Headline

Markets Now Closes 10/14 Ag Markets See Risk Off Selling on Inflation Fears, Fade China Bean Buys

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Closes 10/14 Ag Markets See Risk Off Selling on Inflation Fears, Fade China Bean Buys",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Further interest rate hikes due to inflation.",
      "Continued harvest pressure from large corn and soybean supplies.",
      "Lack of profitability for Chinese crushers impacting soybean demand.",
      "Strong US dollar making US commodities less competitive globally.",
      "Continued weak corn export sales.",
      "Breakdown of key technical support levels in corn and soybeans.",
      "Lack of urgency from cattle buyers in the North due to plant closures."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Grains",
      "Livestock",
      "Inflation",
      "Interest Rates",
      "US Dollar",
      "Harvest",
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Wheat",
      "China",
      "Exports",
      "Technical Analysis",
      "Cattle",
      "Hogs"
    ],
    "summary": "The agricultural markets experienced a \"risk-off\" day due to higher-than-expected inflation data (CPI 3.7%) and rising interest rates, which strengthened the dollar and acted as a headwind for commodities. Harvest pressures for soybeans (46% done) and corn (33% done, below expectations but still a large supply) further weighed on prices. While China made some soybean purchases, overall demand for US grains remains lackluster, especially for corn, with Chinese crushers facing profitability issues.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Interviewer"
      },
      {
        "name": "John Heinberg",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Analyst from Total Farm Marketing"
      },
      {
        "name": "Total Farm Marketing",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "John Heinberg's company"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brevant Seeds",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Sponsor"
      },
      {
        "name": "Golden Harvest",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Sponsor"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Futures market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Futures market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Futures market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Livestock",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Futures market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Dollar Index",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Market indicator"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bonds",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Interest rate market"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Key importer of agricultural products"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Wheat market factor"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Wheat market factor"
      },
      {
        "name": "JBS",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Meatpacking plant"
      },
      {
        "name": "Joplin plant",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Specific JBS plant closure"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "bearish",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Overall market trade, including equities, livestock, and grains, was impacted by inflation data and rising interest rates today.",
        "timestamp": "00:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Longer-term interest rates are currently trading at multi-year highs.",
        "timestamp": "01:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "46% of the soybean harvest is done, and 33% of the corn harvest is in, which was below expectations but still represents significant harvest pressure.",
        "timestamp": "01:19",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The corn harvest number is considered bearish because the bulk of the harvest is still ahead, and increased USDA numbers will act as a 'wet blanket' over any rallies.",
        "timestamp": "01:33",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The CPI at 3.7% was above expectations, which sent the Dollar Index higher to its highest level since April, creating a headwind for commodity markets.",
        "timestamp": "01:50",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A corn carryout of 1.85 billion bushels represents a heavy supply of corn that will keep prices limited.",
        "timestamp": "02:41",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Chinese crushers are facing heavy supplies and reduced profitability, leading to slower business and potentially backing up targets.",
        "timestamp": "03:50",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "China views US corn imports as a political purchase rather than a financially viable one due to price spreads.",
        "timestamp": "05:19",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn export sales are very disappointing and lackluster, currently middle of the pack compared to the last decade.",
        "timestamp": "05:30",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Wheat is considered undervalued, especially given the situation in Russia and Ukraine.",
        "timestamp": "07:59",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The closing of the JBS Joplin plant is creating ripple effects, reducing competitive bidding in the northern cattle region and contributing to a shaky cash market.",
        "timestamp": "09:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Funds are currently holding a massive short position in the hog market, suggesting potential for a quick rally if a turning point is found.",
        "timestamp": "10:54",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Report day low, key spot",
        "value": "$4.70",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "August lows, natural target if $4.70 breaks",
        "value": "$4.57",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Currently flirting with this level",
        "value": "200-day moving average",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "pivot"
      },
      {
        "note": "Key technical support level",
        "value": "Report day low",
        "instrument": "December Soybeans",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "July high, one spike high if report day low is taken out",
        "value": "$12.56",
        "instrument": "December Soybeans",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Trend lines if report day low is taken out",
        "value": "$12.25-$12.30",
        "instrument": "December Soybeans",
        "level_type": "target"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "3.7%",
        "metric": "Inflation Rate",
        "source": "CPI"
      },
      {
        "value": "46%",
        "metric": "Soybean Harvest Progress",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "33%",
        "metric": "Corn Harvest Progress",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.85 billion bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Carryout",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "nearly 300 million bushels",
        "metric": "Grain Stocks Added",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "17.3 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Purchases",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "over $8.50",
        "metric": "Corn Prices",
        "source": "EU"
      },
      {
        "value": "record",
        "metric": "Corn Supply",
        "source": "Argentina"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses agricultural markets, including grains and livestock, with a focus on inflation, interest rates, harvest, and export demand, aligning with the requested topics."
  },
  "video_id": "7K0tNNonjO0",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K0tNNonjO0",
  "transcript": "Markets Now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins and then there are wins you get with Brevant Seeds. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. And by Golden Harvest. The next generation of seed technology is here and we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Rook with John Heinberg of Total Farm Marketing. A mostly lower day in grain and livestock futures trade except for a few of the wheat contracts. John, it felt like a risk-off day, selling pressure coming from fears about inflation and interest rates maybe being up. Yeah, I think that was a big part of it today in terms of the overall market trade. You saw the impact in the equity markets, livestock markets, as well as the grains when that inflation data come came out. Now we'll see if it, you know, correlates into further interest rate hikes down the road. You know, we did see the reaction in the interest rate markets today with bonds selling off. That's a signal that interest rates are at least up in that regard. Now, they found some footing as the day went on today. So, uh, we'll have to see how that kind of plays out as, you know, some of these longer-term interest rates are trading at multi-year highs. Uh, so with that, that was a big part of the grain markets today. I think the other side of it too, obviously, harvest pressures going on. You know, we got 46% of the soybean harvest done, 33% of the corn harvest in, which was actually below expectations, but, you know, we're talking to producers, they're pedal to the metal getting beans off right now. That's why corn harvest didn't advance. I actually think that number's a little bit bearish the corn market because of the pure fact that the bulk of harvest is still in front of us. And then obviously, we got these increased numbers from the USDA. That just are going to be a wet blanket over any rallies until we see anything change. Yeah. Going back to the inflation numbers, CPI 3.7%, that was above expectations. That sent the dollar higher, which that was also a headwind for the grains too, wasn't it? Yeah, it was. Dollar Index traded to its highest level since April today. And, you know, it kind of looked like that dollar chart was trying to maybe roll over a little bit here, and this unfortunately pushed it to a new high. Uh, so again, that's going to continue to be a headwind over the the markets in general, especially the commodity markets, as they're still struggling overall in competitiveness, even though we got some advantages out there in the global export export scene at this time. Yeah. You mentioned harvest pressure, but the market is also still got a little bit of report hanging over going on here from these bigger yields, right? Yeah, very much so. I mean, the numbers are here. They're not we didn't like them. Nobody likes them. You know, but the problem is they're not going to disappear fast. And and when you start talking to corn carryout of 1.85 billion or just under that, that's a heavy supply of corn. And that's going to really keep things fairly limited. You know, I think the key might be what happens in November. Do we see that yield come down slightly or go up slightly? You know, now we in the big crop get bigger mindset. I, you know, I know people don't want to hear that, but that's kind of what's in front of us right now. Um, and realistically, I think you need to make sure you're adjusting, you're looking at your market plans and assessing where your risks are, given the amount of bushels that's on the balance sheet. You throw that in with the grain stocks we've added nearly 300 million bushels to the pile here in the last couple of weeks. Yeah, it certainly is bearish. The other thing the market faded China on a flash sale buying 17.3 million bushels of soybeans. There was news accounts that maybe they had bought eight to ten cargos. This would be in the that. So, was the market disappointed or what? You know, again, sometimes we get those sales and you get the rumors. I heard they were talking about buying beans a couple days ago. We seem to get overnight strength, and then we just can't hold it. I do think the harvest signs is a big weight there. Also, what's going on in the products? There's some things we're hearing about though with the the crushers in China. Maybe supplies are getting a little bit heavy and profitability's not there. And, you know, they're buying beans off the government from through the government auctions. And if those results aren't there too, that could just slow down some of that business. You know, I thought early session today we had strong weakness in oil, strong weakness in the meal. That really kind of kept beans limited. Really watching some technical support levels here on beans. If it might be a little cautious here if we break that low from Friday's report. Yeah. We'll talk about technicals in a moment, but as far as China right now, it looks like their imports were down for this last month of soybeans, weren't they? That would speak to what you said about the Chinese crushing margins. Yeah, yeah, they were down. They were still at, you know, some of the best levels over the last handful of years, but down from last year's record numbers for the month. Uh, so they still brought ample supplies of beans in, but, you know, that still seems to be one of those indicators out there that the it's just not a profitable line right now for the Chinese crushers. And that could be backing up some of the business and, you know, some of these targets here. Talking about China, uh, right now, we saw a story today that China says, hey, corn is not an option for us right now. Did that also throw a wet blanket on the market? I don't think it helped, that's for sure. You know, the corn market's looking for some corn business. And I've been talking about that for a few weeks. You just look at the spread between Chinese corn prices and US corn prices. And right now, for them to bring corn in, it'd be pretty much a political purchase versus a financial one. Uh, in terms of just doesn't work at this timeframe. And, you know, we haven't really talked about corn exports. I know everybody's excited about demand, but really corn export sales right now are very disappointing or very lackluster. Uh, obviously, we can't compare to last year. That was an anomaly, but we're kind of middle of the pack for where we've been for the other years in the over the last decade. Really nice to see some corn sales start popping up here. I think it's just been a combination of price, and now that maybe prices have broke, maybe we'll see some business. Going to be watching those corn export sales numbers later in the week. Yeah. EU prices, I think, are over what, eight, eight and a half dollars, a 40-year high. And so at some point, are we going to get some of that business shifting around or not? I'd like to see it. Unfortunately, it seems like Argentina with their record supply did pull a lot of that business in. We did have a nice rash of corn sales right at the end of the marketing year. And and actually, if you look at inspections, they are ahead of last year's pace right now in this window. And that's some of those late corn sales and that demand for corn needing to get moved immediately. So, so the problem is we're not getting enough sales to replace those those shipments that are going out. And we might just hit ourselves a bit of a lull, uh, in the export shipment side. So again, new sales on the books is going to be key, I think, here over the next handful of months. Again, obviously, this is not a window where typically selling a lot of corn, but it'd be nice to get a little bit stronger start. That strong dollar obviously is a big factor in that as well. Yeah. And let's talk about technicals. You mentioned we have to hold the report day low in soybeans. Corn barely holding the 200-day moving average here today. That's important there too, isn't it? I think so. I typically look at that 200-day as a bit of a swing point in the markets. If you stay above them, you're kind of supported. If you break below it and get a couple closes underneath or finish the week below, you know, that sometimes can just signify that, you know, this market may have a little bit more downside. Obviously, the report day low, that 470 window on December, will be a very key spot. Wouldn't shock me we go at least retest it, uh, in that regard. And if that does break, there is, you know, the August lows look like a natural target point. That's around 457 on that December contract. If you take out the report day low in soybeans, how far do you fall? Well, first, you got the July high, that's a one spike high at 1256. Otherwise, you know, trend lines come down here around the 1225, 1230 window. Um, that might be a little bit aggressive and may need to get some yield numbers to push that, but that's at least maybe a target we can see. Any, I guess, obvious reason that corn or wheat held up better than corn and beans today? I still think wheat's a bit undervalued here overall, especially with what's going on Russia, Ukraine. I know they're getting some bushels out of northern ports, but it's still not at the level it needs to be done. So maybe just hit a point today where that market was getting cheap enough, getting a little bit of money flow back into it would be good. That would help out the corn market as well. Uh, so I'm just but still cautious because this isn't usually one of those times of years that wheat likes to find a lot of traction. Yeah, seasonally, you would think or expect that. Okay, the cattle market. Did we just fall under the inflation and interest rate concerns there as well? Because boxed beef was actually a little better at noon. I do think that was a big part of it, especially with the market that's had a nice run that we've seen here. Didn't like the action yesterday. We kind of just rolled over a little bit, got a little follow through today. Now, I think the next couple of days will be very key. First off, on the carcass side, beef rib carcasses beef rib primal cuts are trading at I believe record levels, definitely at a profitable level as we're getting the holiday buying here. So to me, the key is going to be what happens with cash. It's been so wishy-washy the last couple of weeks, especially in the north. Uh, that we it'd be nice to see a cash trend start turning a little bit higher here. And that would really give us the funds maybe another shot to get back into the cattle market. Yeah. Do you see that in the cards though, John? We've got this two-tiered market, but the north has lost leverage, especially with these plant closures, right? Yeah, that closing of that Joplin plant is really starting to have ripple effects from talking to guys that, you know, they lost obviously a strong competitive bidder in that region. Uh, you know, and there's just not a sense of urgency, it seems like, from the buyers, uh, from talking to the talking to some producers in that area. So that was obviously a big piece of the puzzle that's going to keep the cash market just a bit shaky. Did we do anything to negate the chart breakout from last Friday or not? Again, I think the close in the week will be very key. Again, just like in the grains or the corn market, we're flirting around with the 200-day moving average. We did get above it in the front-end contracts a little bit. It'd be nice to see us hold that. We got an August high that's right in this shooting window as well. If we can kind of find a way to get through that area, I think that could fire up at least a little bit more short covering and some long long buying into that cattle market as well, technically. Yeah. And December's at a pretty good discount, but that doesn't always mean you're going to see buying to narrow that gap. Exactly. All right, thanks, John. John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing and Markets Now. Tight margins. Tough conditions. Relentless pressures. At Golden Harvest, we know your challenges don't slow down. But then neither do we. Backed by Syngenta R&D and innovations like Durastack trait technology, we pair locally tested solutions with seed advisor expertise to deliver real results on your acres. Because when it comes to next-gen technology, we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Durastack hybrids now available for the 2027 season. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You win so big, the very ground beneath your feet cries tears of joy. You win so big, that second place feels like a participation trophy. You win so big, you might as well be harvesting fairy treasure. Oh, sorry, just one more. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You hit the damn jackpot. Don't just win, win. Talk with your retailer or visit brevant.com/jackpot to get started.",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-14T19:00:39Z",
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