Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 14, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

October 14, 2026 at 03:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Early 10/14 Grains Fall Despite China Bean Buys on Harvest, Dollar

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Early 10/14 Grains Fall Despite China Bean Buys on Harvest, Dollar",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Soybean quality issues (discolored beans) may force immediate sales, increasing supply.",
      "Lack of fresh news or investor interest could keep grain markets sideways.",
      "Continued shipping problems in the Black Sea region.",
      "High energy prices and inflation could deter consumer demand for protein.",
      "Packers maintaining the upper hand in the cattle market.",
      "Hog market needing a \"psychological change\" or strong buying interest to bottom."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Soybeans",
      "Corn",
      "Wheat",
      "Cattle",
      "Hogs",
      "Harvest",
      "Export Demand",
      "Basis",
      "Yields",
      "EPA SREs",
      "Inflation",
      "Energy Prices",
      "Black Sea",
      "Consumer Demand"
    ],
    "summary": "Grain markets are mostly lower despite some positive news like China's soybean purchases, due to ongoing harvest pressure and strong yields in some areas. Corn and wheat are also down, with corn struggling to break resistance and wheat needing export demand. Livestock markets are consolidating, with live cattle attempting a rebound while hogs remain pressured by high energy costs and weak cutouts.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Host"
      },
      {
        "name": "Vince Spotker",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Analyst from Farmers Trading Company"
      },
      {
        "name": "Farmers Trading Company",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Vince Spotker's company"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Soybean buyer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Live Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Feeder Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "EPA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Issued SRE proposal"
      },
      {
        "name": "SREs",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Small Refinery Exemptions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Western Corn Belt",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Area with quality issues and yield increases"
      },
      {
        "name": "Argentina",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Competition for corn exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Provides market data and reports"
      },
      {
        "name": "FC Stone",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Former name of StoneX, provided corn yield estimates"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Current name of FC Stone"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Shipping problems affecting wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Southern Plains",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Expected rains for wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Shipping issues affecting wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Pork Council",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Lack of advertising for pork"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Grain markets are mostly lower, with the exception of some cattle contracts.",
        "timestamp": "00:31",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "China bought 17.3 million bushels of soybeans in a flash sale, but the market is still lower, possibly because the purchase was less than expected.",
        "timestamp": "00:48",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean harvest is not quite 50% complete nationally, but significant progress was made last week due to good weather and modern machinery.",
        "timestamp": "01:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean prices are nearly $3 a bushel higher than last year, and basis levels are better (40-70 cents under vs. $1.10-$1.20 under last year).",
        "timestamp": "02:07",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Quality issues with discolored soybeans in the Western Corn Belt are leading some farmers to sell immediately rather than store.",
        "timestamp": "02:32",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The EPA's proposal to reallocate 100% of SREs to 2026 and 2027 was disappointing to the market, but it was expected.",
        "timestamp": "03:05",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn is following soybeans and wheat lower, despite making up ground in harvest pace last week (still 6% behind national average).",
        "timestamp": "03:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn export inspections are behind desired levels, and overall corn exports are about 30% behind.",
        "timestamp": "04:31",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "FC Stone (now StoneX) had a corn yield estimate of 182-183 bushels, which is considered reliable.",
        "timestamp": "06:00",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The wheat market is down, potentially pressured by a stronger dollar after hotter-than-expected CPI data.",
        "timestamp": "07:00",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Wheat needs more export demand, and Black Sea shipping problems are contributing to market oscillation.",
        "timestamp": "07:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Live cattle are attempting to rebound, while feeder cattle are slightly lower; the market is consolidating, awaiting cash trade direction.",
        "timestamp": "08:14",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The packer has had the upper hand in the cattle market for the last 6-8 weeks, and this is unlikely to change soon.",
        "timestamp": "08:29",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Hog market is down again, potentially hitting new contract lows, and needs a psychological change or strong buying interest to bottom.",
        "timestamp": "10:07",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Pork cutouts were down $2.29 yesterday, and cash and cutout prices need to bottom to stabilize futures.",
        "timestamp": "10:47",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "High energy prices and inflation are a deterrent in the protein sector, including cattle and hogs, as consumers have limited budgets.",
        "timestamp": "09:47",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Price comparison",
        "value": "nearly $3 higher than last year",
        "instrument": "Soybeans",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current basis",
        "value": "$0.40 - $0.70 under",
        "instrument": "Soybean basis",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Last year's basis",
        "value": "$1.10 - $1.20 under",
        "instrument": "Soybean basis",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Struggling to stay above this level",
        "value": "over $5",
        "instrument": "March Corn",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Grocery store specials",
        "value": "$0.95 - $1.60 per pound",
        "instrument": "Pork loins",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Yesterday's change",
        "value": "down $2.29",
        "instrument": "Pork cutouts",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "17.3 million bushels",
        "metric": "soybean purchases",
        "source": "China flash sale"
      },
      {
        "value": "4% behind nationally",
        "metric": "soybean harvest pace",
        "period": "last week",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "6% behind nationally",
        "metric": "corn harvest pace",
        "period": "last week",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "$1.10 - $1.20 under",
        "metric": "soybean basis",
        "period": "last year",
        "source": "Local market"
      },
      {
        "value": "$0.40 - $0.70 under",
        "metric": "soybean basis",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Local market"
      },
      {
        "value": "182-183 bushels",
        "metric": "corn yield estimate",
        "source": "FC Stone (now StoneX)"
      },
      {
        "value": "behind desired levels",
        "metric": "corn export inspections",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "30% behind",
        "metric": "corn exports",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "hotter than expected",
        "metric": "inflation",
        "source": "CPI"
      },
      {
        "value": "down $2.29",
        "metric": "pork cutouts",
        "period": "yesterday",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "$0.95 - $1.60 per pound",
        "metric": "pork loin specials",
        "source": "Grocery stores"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses current market conditions and outlook for soybeans, corn, wheat, cattle, and hogs, including specific data points and influencing factors."
  },
  "video_id": "WWj2w1OGiLQ",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWj2w1OGiLQ",
  "transcript": "Welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Rook with Vince Spotker of Farmers Trading Company. Here on a Wednesday, we are seeing the markets mostly lower to start with the exception of some of the cattle contracts. At least the live cattle are trying to make a bounce here today. Vince, thanks for joining me. Let's talk about the grains first of all. Soybeans, let's start there. China, we came in and saw them this morning on a flash sale, 17.3 million bushels is what they bought. The market is lower despite that. Was this not as much as advertised or why aren't we responding? It's not as much as advertised. I think it's about half of my math in here. The other side of it is, it's you still harvest, you're not quite 50%, you might be now because that was as of Sunday when we we got our numbers in here. But all in all, I think the market's okay, but you got to put some kind of a roll in. It's always a little tougher to know when that's going to come when you're at high prices at harvest time versus usually taking a pretty good dip in here. Yeah, and when we talk about harvest, let's talk about harvest pace because we're 4% behind nationally, but man, did we make some inroads this last week, didn't we? Definitely, yes. And I think it just attributes to the fact that in today's world with the machinery you have and the technology, it doesn't take long to get it done, you just have to have the right weather. The other big headwind here is we're getting some big yields out of some of these areas and is that also a little bit of a pressure to the market? I mean, are some of these guys selling some of their extra bushels or because prices are way higher than last year? You know, and I think when you when you look at that, Michelle, not only are prices up nearly three bucks a bushel higher than last year, but I'm guessing it's the same all over. Last year in our part of the world, basis was a buck ten or a buck twenty under. Right now it's anywhere from forty to seventy under. So you got a good price and a good basis. If you need any cash flow at all, it's definitely a good incentive to do it. And if you think it's going higher, come back and use paper, you don't have to store it. You don't have the expense that way. Yeah. And in the Western Corn Belt, where we're seeing some of these quality issues, the soybeans of other colors, those don't necessarily store well. So some of these guys are electing to try to get rid of them right away, aren't they? They are, you know, and it really varies here. You talk to a couple of guys and they've got a lot of the discolored beans, but most of the people you talk to, it's maybe one to two percent, so not a big deal. Yeah. Okay, so let's also talk about the SRE proposal on the reallocation came out yesterday from EPA. They're going to reallocate 100% of the SREs to 2026 and 2027. But the market seemed a little disappointed with the fact that we came up with two proposals. You know, and and it is and sometimes, you know, you get the reality of it, then you react more to it. But both of the proposals were were talked about earlier and it's not like it's fresh news in here. But I think still when you get that, they just if they didn't reallocate it and and leave it go, that's probably the bigger disappointment. But I think that's what was expected. Yeah. Okay, what about the corn market? Uh, we are seeing maybe corn follow the soybeans and the wheat lower here this morning. But what else is pressuring that market? Is this harvest pressure as well? I mean, we're still 6% behind the normal national pace, but again, we made up a lot of ground last week. We did, and you got a long way to go on that one. And, you know, I think the corn, you're still really from numbers from last week of an increased yield, and I would still guess could last Friday have been your harvest low in the corn? It's possible. But I think you maybe need to check those out and see if there's really buying there. Ideal situation would be to take those lows out by two or three cents and the market turn around and go higher. I think you pick up some pretty good momentum. Then again, you know, you just back to the soybeans. The other side of it, if you look at yesterday's numbers, the the export inspections are behind what a person would like to see them according to sales. Yeah. And corn exports are actually behind by about 30%, are they? Aren't they? Is that competition from the fact that Argentina is cheaper than us, or is it because we have a soybean export program this year where we didn't last fall and so we kind of front-loaded that thing? You know, and I think the other side of it is, they just look at the amount of corn that we moved last fall. And those people that were buying that aren't weren't buying him in the mouth for a while. They were storing it and stocking it up, and they probably just don't quite need as much as they did a year ago, is my guess. Yeah, going back to yield, there's a lot of concerns national about the national yield, obviously being raised, and then all of the big increases came here in the Western Plains, Western Corn Belt areas that you and I are in. You know, do you think that did USDA make errors there? I mean, was that just the simple truth of it or what? You know, I would think that USDA never makes errors, you know. It's a it's one of those things that you say that facetiously, yes, yes. You know, and again, I'm not sure it's errors. It's, you know, I had different ideas which I won't mention on the air in here. But, uh, I usually don't believe much of what they tell me. You know, the only thing that I could think you can put some credibility in when you look at the corn yield, Michelle, is FC Stone earlier had 182, 3 or something of that nature. And they've been pretty stout and really haven't changed it. And you look at the resources that they have to build that on, uh, besides the elevator system and the brokerage side, that's pretty big for them and more. They got lots of info and they're usually pretty tight. So that's the only legitimate thing that I can try to back up on USDA. No, it's a good point that you make. And FC Stone is actually StoneX now. And, um, so that's a good point because they were very close to where USDA came in on their national corn yield. Uh, we also saw corn kind of run up into chart resistance here. We've held the the 200-day, but we can't take out the 100-day moving average, right? Right, right. Yesterday, you're watching the corn. We tried to rally and we just struggled trying to stay over $5 in that March. And we may need to get 60% or so done with harvest before we think we can do much more and challenge in that. Uh, the wheat market also down this morning. Uh, the dollar index turned after we got the CPI out and it was hotter than expected with ideas of interest rates going up. That shot the dollar up. Is that pressuring wheat or any of the grains this morning? It could be, you know, and and again, wheat, you know, is it story done yet or not? I'm not sure if it is, but you had a pretty good run and I think you're in the low right in here and it may take you until you get another month or so down the road before you think you're going to get much of a rally out of wheat. Yeah, we've got to get some exports, obviously. Black Sea headlines, they really oscillate. And so, um, is the market paying attention to that anymore or I know we're supposed to get some rains down in the Southern Plains. Is it more focused on that right now? You know, I think there just isn't a lot of fresh news. We continue to have the shipping problems in the Black Sea region. I mean, you put in some moisture in the Southern Plains and in this part of the world where you planted a lot more wheat, you didn't plant hardly any the last couple years, but the prices came up. I think it encouraged that. And the trade's looking at all those aspects and again, the stuff in Ukraine, I think it's just getting to be old news for the short term. Cattle market. Uh, live cattle trying to rebound here this morning. Feeders are a little bit lower. The live cattle market right now, is it just kind of consolidating here waiting for cash trade direction? I think it is. And the packer, as we all know, is has had the upper hand the last six to eight weeks in here, and I'm not sure that's going to change anytime soon. So you're not as enthusiastic as you were a year ago. You don't have the fund involvement as you did a year ago. And until you get something to get the trade and the investor to jump back into that market, I think it's going to be more sideways. And whether you look at the cattle or the grains, I think that's what you see short term. I do think grains and the cattle both have some upside to them, but it may take as you get into November or December before we see that. So this chart breakout that we saw Friday, the higher week last week, weekly closes were bullish, but what you're saying is that you don't necessarily know that we can build on that chart breakout right now? Right, you know, do we need to get into the January, December, February timeframe where the yields are supposed to hit that aren't there? And then you really, I think, get an idea of where is that consumer demand at? Can it hold up and stay there and push this market higher? But again, you get a breakout like you did, many times they want to come back and check that area out before they really take off. Yeah. And this kind of goes back to what we just talked about with the CPI and inflation creeping higher. Part of that has been the higher energy prices, and that's a little bit of a deterrent here in the protein sector, including cattle, isn't it? It definitely is. You know, you look at it, there's only for many consumers, there's only so much money, and you have to figure out where you budget it at. I think they like their beef, and they're going to keep buying it, but they'll probably back off somewhat just because they need to. And the hog market, back down again, um, into what? More new contract lows? What helps us finally bottom this market? Um, my guess is is when the last guy that bought hogs many months ago finally decides he's going to get out, you'll turn around. Uh, you know, talking about the small speculator there, it's got to be more of a psychological change. I think you're getting close to that, but nothing there right now that you're seeing that you you got to get something that gets somebody interested and say, I need to buy this right now when who says I don't want to be the one to catch the falling knife. Yeah, but cutouts were down another $2.29 yesterday. Cash and cutouts really have to bottom here, don't they, before you can stabilize the futures? They do. Yes. I I would agree 100%. And when you when you talked about the cutout side of things, you know, this last week, we've had lots of grocery stores that had specials anywhere from 95 cents to a buck sixty a pound on pork loins. And you take that and put it against hamburger and those things. Uh, you should build something in there, but it amazes me that you just don't hear much from the from the pork council on advertising, which this should be a time of year they're doing it. Yeah, it is October pork month, for sure. All right, thanks, Vince. Appreciate it. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks, Michelle. Vince Spotker with Farmers Trading Company in Markets Now.",
  "description": "Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-14T14:52:30Z",
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