Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 14, 2026 at 02:17 PM

Completed At

October 14, 2026 at 02:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Behind the Corn Yield Shock, Russia Quietly Reroutes Wheat

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Behind the Corn Yield Shock, Russia Quietly Reroutes Wheat",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Geopolitical instability and conflict (Ukraine-Russia war)",
      "Vessel attacks in the Black Sea region",
      "Logistical issues for China due to potential port overcapacity",
      "Political and diplomatic tensions impacting trade routes and commodity flows"
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Grain markets",
      "Wheat",
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Rapeseed",
      "Biofuel policy",
      "US agriculture",
      "Ukraine war",
      "Russian exports",
      "Global trade",
      "Weather impacts on crops",
      "Commodity prices"
    ],
    "summary": "This video analyzes the volatile week in grain markets, highlighting key drivers such as a surprising US corn yield report, fresh wheat demand, and developments in biofuel policy. Geopolitical events, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict and its impact on shipping routes and energy prices, also contributed to significant price fluctuations. The discussion covers corn, wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed, examining crop conditions, export paces, and import tenders from various global players.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Johanna Botta",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Host of the show"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bertrand Oesterle",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "VP of Clearing & Execution Sales at StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Company producing the content and whose survey figures are discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Source of corn yield and crop condition reports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country involved in conflict, impacting grain exports and logistics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country involved in conflict, impacting grain exports and logistics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bulgaria",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Location where vessels were hit, impacting grain prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "Algeria",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country issuing a large wheat tender"
      },
      {
        "name": "Philippines",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country importing corn and Australian feed wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "South Korea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country importing corn"
      },
      {
        "name": "Argentina",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country with a large corn crop estimate, potentially supplying Algeria"
      },
      {
        "name": "Thailand",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country importing feed wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Taiwan",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country importing US milling wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "EU",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "European Union, whose import/export paces are discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "Latvia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "EU country asking for a ban on Russian grain exports through EU ports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Lithuania",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "EU country asking for a ban on Russian grain exports through EU ports"
      },
      {
        "name": "SovEcon",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Russian agricultural consultancy, providing production estimates"
      },
      {
        "name": "IKAR",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Russian agricultural consultancy, providing production estimates"
      },
      {
        "name": "Patria Agronegocios",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Brazilian agricultural consultancy, providing planting figures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cofco",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Chinese state-owned food processing company, discussing port capacity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Key grain discussed, with yield surprises and export demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Key grain discussed, with demand and export logistics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Key grain discussed, impacted by corn and biofuel policy"
      },
      {
        "name": "Rapeseed",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Oilseed discussed, with import lagging and favorable weather in Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Fuel whose prices were impacted by geopolitical events"
      },
      {
        "name": "Biofuel",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Policy developments impacting demand for soybean oil"
      },
      {
        "name": "Baltic Ports",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Ports used by Russia for grain exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Vysotsk",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Russian Baltic port"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ust-Luga",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Russian Baltic port"
      },
      {
        "name": "Saint Petersburg",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Russian Baltic port"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Region where weather and geopolitical events impact grain trade"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country making space for more soybean imports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country with active soybean planting"
      },
      {
        "name": "Zelensky",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Ukrainian President, mentioned in context of political developments"
      },
      {
        "name": "Trump",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Former US President, mentioned for a self-declaration of ceasefire and calling for Zelensky to go"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Grain markets experienced volatility this week, with initial drops followed by corrections and sideways movement.",
        "timestamp": "00:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A surprising USDA report last Friday showed US corn yields at 181.2 bushels per acre, higher than anticipated, causing corn prices to drop and spill over into wheat and soybeans.",
        "timestamp": "00:57",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A potential ceasefire announcement between Ukraine and Russia initially caused diesel prices to fall, putting pressure on grains, but subsequent vessel attacks in Bulgarian waters reversed this.",
        "timestamp": "01:08",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "A large Algerian tender for wheat provided support to wheat prices.",
        "timestamp": "01:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "An EPA announcement regarding biofuel policy is still being processed by the market, causing seesaw movements.",
        "timestamp": "01:34",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn crop conditions have improved slightly to 56% good to excellent, but are still 2% below the five-year average.",
        "timestamp": "03:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn exports are still 8% below the pace needed to meet USDA annual figures.",
        "timestamp": "03:23",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cheaper corn prices have spurred demand, with the Philippines buying South American corn and South Korea purchasing significant volumes.",
        "timestamp": "03:45",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Argentina's corn crop estimate is 64 million tons, a 30.6% increase from last year due to larger area and better yields.",
        "timestamp": "04:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukraine's corn exports are ahead of last year, but wheat exports are lagging.",
        "timestamp": "04:37",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Algerian wheat tender is significant because it suggests a potential origin switch, with Argentina possibly selling to Algeria, and Russia using Baltic ports for exports, bypassing EU ports.",
        "timestamp": "05:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Russian wheat exports through Baltic ports (Vysotsk, Ust-Luga, Saint Petersburg) are increasing, with more than half of September's and October's estimated exports going through these routes.",
        "timestamp": "07:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukraine's weather forecast is beneficial for winter wheat, and planting is 67.2% complete.",
        "timestamp": "08:27",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Russian wheat production estimates have been reduced by SovEcon and IKAR.",
        "timestamp": "09:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "EU wheat exports are currently at pace with last year.",
        "timestamp": "09:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The EPA's decision to transfer small refinery exemptions to larger refineries for 2026-2027 implies increased demand for soybean oil for biofuel blending.",
        "timestamp": "11:34",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "China is making space for more soybean imports through large domestic auctions, and has booked 8-10 cargoes of US soybeans post the Xi-Trump meeting.",
        "timestamp": "12:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US soybean crop conditions are stable but still 1% below the five-year average.",
        "timestamp": "13:20",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brazil's soybean planting is ahead of last year's pace, having recouped a recent dip.",
        "timestamp": "13:35",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "EU rapeseed imports are lagging behind last year, despite the need for more rapeseed.",
        "timestamp": "14:41",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukraine has favorable weather for winter rapeseed, and planting is 98.7% complete.",
        "timestamp": "14:56",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "181.2 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "US Corn Yields",
        "period": "last Friday",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "178.5 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "US Corn Yields",
        "period": "last month",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "177.7 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "US Corn Yields",
        "source": "Pre-report estimates"
      },
      {
        "value": "182.1 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "US Corn Yields",
        "source": "StoneX survey"
      },
      {
        "value": "56% good to excellent",
        "metric": "US Corn Crop Conditions",
        "period": "previous week",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "58% good to excellent",
        "metric": "US Corn Crop Conditions",
        "period": "5-year average",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "8% below the pace needed for USDA annual figure",
        "metric": "US Corn Exports",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "110,000 tons",
        "metric": "South American Corn Imports",
        "source": "Philippines"
      },
      {
        "value": "590,000 tons",
        "metric": "Corn Imports",
        "source": "South Korea"
      },
      {
        "value": "64 million tons",
        "metric": "Argentina Corn Crop Estimate",
        "source": "Buenos Aires Grain Exchange"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.005 million tons",
        "metric": "Corn Exports",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.138 million tons",
        "metric": "Corn Exports",
        "period": "last year (same time)",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "5.9 million tons so far",
        "metric": "Corn Imports",
        "source": "EU"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.6 million tons",
        "metric": "Corn Imports",
        "period": "May last year",
        "source": "EU"
      },
      {
        "value": "140,000 tons",
        "metric": "Australian Feed Wheat Imports",
        "source": "Philippines"
      },
      {
        "value": "60,000 tons",
        "metric": "Feed Wheat Imports",
        "source": "Thailand"
      },
      {
        "value": "105.8 thousand tons",
        "metric": "US Milling Wheat Imports",
        "source": "Taiwan"
      },
      {
        "value": "600,000 to 720,000 tons",
        "metric": "Milling Wheat Tender",
        "source": "Algeria"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.4 to 1.6 million tons (out of 2.5 to 2.7 million total)",
        "metric": "Wheat Exports through Baltic Ports",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "Russian rail companies"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.8 million tons (out of 3 million total)",
        "metric": "Wheat Exports through Baltic Ports",
        "period": "October (estimate)",
        "source": "Russian rail companies"
      },
      {
        "value": "67.2% complete",
        "metric": "Winter Wheat Planting",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "3.127 million tons so far",
        "metric": "Wheat Exports",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "5.614 million tons",
        "metric": "Wheat Exports",
        "period": "last year (same time)",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "88 million tons",
        "metric": "Russian Wheat Production Estimate",
        "source": "SovEcon"
      },
      {
        "value": "88.5 million tons",
        "metric": "Russian Wheat Production Estimate",
        "source": "IKAR"
      },
      {
        "value": "8 million tons so far",
        "metric": "Wheat Exports",
        "source": "EU"
      },
      {
        "value": "transferred to larger refineries across 2026 and 2027",
        "metric": "Small Refinery Exemptions",
        "period": "2025",
        "source": "EPA"
      },
      {
        "value": "518,000 tons (yesterday), 504,000 tons (Oct 20th)",
        "metric": "Domestic Soybean Auctions",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "8 to 10 cargoes",
        "metric": "US Soybean Cargo Bookings",
        "period": "post Xi-Trump meeting",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "58% good to excellent",
        "metric": "US Soybean Crop Conditions",
        "period": "5-year average",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "19.77% planted so far",
        "metric": "Brazil Soybean Planting",
        "source": "Patria Agronegocios"
      },
      {
        "value": "12.86% planted",
        "metric": "Brazil Soybean Planting",
        "period": "last year (same time)",
        "source": "Patria Agronegocios"
      },
      {
        "value": "1 million tons so far",
        "metric": "Rapeseed Imports",
        "source": "EU"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.2 million tons",
        "metric": "Rapeseed Imports",
        "period": "last year (same time)",
        "source": "EU"
      },
      {
        "value": "98.7% complete",
        "metric": "Winter Rapeseed Planting",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "-58",
        "metric": "Rapeseed Nov-Feb Spread",
        "source": "Market"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a substantive discussion on grain markets, including corn, wheat, soybeans, and rapeseed, covering yields, exports, imports, and geopolitical impacts, directly aligning with the requested topics."
  },
  "video_id": "Oh1Mk0P7dLs",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh1Mk0P7dLs",
  "transcript": "It's been a volatile week for grain markets with wheat, corn and soybeans falling sharply before finding some stability. From a surprise in US corn yields to fresh wheat demand and developments in biofuel policy, what's driving prices and what should we watch next week? I'm Johanna Botta and joining me today to break it all down is Bertrand Oesterle, VP of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX. Welcome back, Bert. Morning, Johanna. So, wheat, corn, soybean all had similar pattern this last week. First there was an initial bounce, then there was a correction, then it went sideways, uh before we get into each one, just give me a brief summary of what created or what is behind these patterns. So it's mostly four elements. So, if you remember last week, our clients were saying we expected a bounce, we have had that bounce. I mean, since then we've had a WASDE report last Friday, which provided a surprised corn yield that dropped the market in corn and that spilled over into wheat and soybean as well. Um and then we had a Trump announcement on a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, so diesel prices fell, put pressure into our grains and oilseeds, but then vessels got hit again in Bulgarian waters, so the war is back on, prices go back up, so seesaw movements. Uh then we had a large Algerian tender in wheat that provided support. And uh finally we had an EPA announcement yesterday, which people are still trying to put their head around and it's also creating some seesaw movements. Okay, so let's take it step by step and start with corn. What happened with the yields and were our American colleagues correct? So, the USDA on last Friday through the WASDE report uh published a 181.2 bushel per acre yield, which is much bigger than what people anticipated. So last month we had 178.5, pre-report estimates was 177.7. USDA comes in at 181.2, which is not too far from our US colleagues' survey, which was 182.1. So, uh to put it to them, uh we had some uh smug faces uh last week saying we told you so. Um but what is interesting is that clients came back to us and said we couldn't believe in your survey figure and then suddenly the USDA publishes that figure and we don't know how it comes out, where it comes from, but maybe we should have listened to the StoneX survey. So, um clients were quite nice in a way by recognizing that they had criticized the survey very violently in the past but came back to say maybe we should have listened. Um now, when we look at a 2.7 bushel per acre increase from one month to the next, it's a huge number, it's a huge variation. And it means that corn fell, created spillover pressure into wheat and soybean and the entire complex fell. Uh now beyond that, when we look at US figures, uh since then the crop conditions have improved a bit by 2% from the previous week, so they're back at 56% good to excellent, so a little bit more bearish, but they're still 2% below the five-year average of 58%. Then when we look at the exports, they're still some 8% below the pace we need to be at in order to get to the USDA annual figure. So again, a touch bearish. So overall, no surprise to see the funds cutting their long positions at present. Okay, before we move on, are buyers taking advantage of the cheaper prices and are there any other developments that we need to know about? Uh you're right. The fall in price in corn has spurred some demand. So we've seen the Philippines buying 110,000 tons of South American corn for example, and we've seen a few tenders from various parties in South Korea totaling 590,000 tons of corn imports over the past week. Um now it's still very much seesaw action and that seesaw action is also in the rest of the news we've seen. So, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for Argentina is reporting a crop estimate at 64 million tons, it's a big figure. It would be 30.6% more than last year. That would be on the back of a larger area and uh better yields. Um also when we look at the Ukraine in terms of news, the information is for better export potential at present. So we had mentioned over the past few weeks that um corn exports from Ukraine were ahead of last year, it's still the case. It's 2.005 million tons compared to 1.138 million tons at the same time last year. Uh but the interesting bit is that the railway companies are saying that there's more grain going to ports and it's 19% more than last month. Okay. Still, however, 50% less than last year. Uh and when we look at the EU, the pace of imports is still large, so uh that is what we've been expecting and the figures confirm that, it's 5.9 million tons so far of imports compared to 4.6 in maize last year. Okay, understood. Um earlier you mentioned Algeria supporting wheat. What do we know about its most recent tender? So, before I I talk about um Algeria, we had other tenders. I mean, when corn prices fell, wheat prices fell as well and that created demand. Uh so we saw for example, the Philippines buying 140,000 tons of Australian feed wheat. We saw Thailand buying 60,000 tons of feed wheat, and we saw Taiwan buying 105.8 thousand tons of US milling wheat. Now, the Algerian tender tells us a lot about what is going on at present and I think it's a very interesting tender. So the tender amount to start with is large. It's 600 to 720,000 tons of milling wheat for December shipment. And then post amount, we come to origin. So the market was expecting some Bulgarian, some Romanian, and it is the case. And that has supported Paris wheat because it's European exports once again. Then the next interesting bit is that there may be some Argentinian origin. And here again, it puts in focus what we've spoken about for over the past few weeks, meaning that buyers are looking for an origin switch. And it puts the US in focus as well. Uh if Argentina is able to to sell to Algeria, the US have presumably not participated and it explains why the US are a bit behind, they're still some 6% behind in terms of export pace compared to what we expect for them to get to the annual um USDA figure. Okay. And then the last bit, which is extremely important, it's the fact that presumably Algeria would have accepted some Russian wheat out of Baltic ports. And that is very interesting, very important. Why? Because we've been saying for years now that the Ukrainians, the Europeans have had to reorganize their logistics because of the war. And over the past three months now, it's the Russians' time to have to reorganize their exports and they're doing it through the northern route. So it's through the ports of uh Vysotsk, uh Ust-Luga, or Saint Petersburg. And it is at a time when the Europeans are trying to block anything that goes through the EU. So Latvia and Lithuania have asked for a ban on grain exports from Russia through EU ports. So it is important for Russia to have those three Russian Baltic ports active. And we see it also in the figures that have been reported to us by the um rail companies in Russia or by Rusagrotrans for example. So when we look at September, there were 2.5 to 2.7 million tons of wheat exports, of which 1.4 to 1.6 were through the Baltic ports, so more than half. And for for October, the estimate is 3 million tons and 1.8 million tons could be through those three northern Baltic ports. So once again, more than half of the total amount expected. Okay. And is there anything, before we move on, is there anything to note about weather in the Black Sea region and also maybe Europe? So, for the Ukraine, the weather forecaster is mentioning that uh the weather is actually beneficial to winter wheat in Ukraine, the crop that is already in the ground but also for the planting, and planting is currently 67% or 67.2% complete. Um the rail operators are also uh telling us for wheat what they've told us for corn, which I've just mentioned a moment ago, there's more grain going to ports, so that's an indication that there may be more exports. But in terms of wheat exports, Ukraine is still behind the pace of last year. Um I think they've achieved some 3.127 million tons so far, when at last at at the same time last year they were at 5.614 million tons. So corn exports are doing okay, wheat exports are definitely lagging. And when it comes to uh Russian figures, um we see that the Russians um have reduced their production estimates, so SovEcon has reduced to 88 million tons, IKAR has reduced to 88.5, so they've reduced by 700,000 tons and 500,000 tons respectively. Um and then when we look at the EU, the pace of export is actually coming down. So we had said that because of the origin shift, the Europeans were exporting more. Now those exports have are just at pace with last year at 8 million tons so far. Okay, so basically soybeans got caught up in corn sell-off. Um you also mentioned, I believe, an EPA announcement. What can you tell us about that? Um so, yes, when the WASDE report came out, corn spilled over into soybean. And before we come to the EPA, there was another story and that story is the Trump self-declaration of a ceasefire in Ukraine and Russia um on um energy facility. Yes. So diesel prices came off, that provided some spillover pressure onto our markets. But since then, there's been two elements that have created seesaw activity and uh an upward movement in the sense or some support. First, that ceasefire was very short-lived, in the sense that the Russians would have attacked seven um energy facilities in Ukraine overnight. And the Ukrainians would have responded by attacking one in uh Moscow region. Yeah. Um the second bit is also what we mentioned earlier on about Bulgaria creating a diplomatic spat because four vessels have now been hit in the Bulgarian waters, two of which have been sunk. And it's one week, two another week and it's creating some political and uh diplomatic issues. Um on top of that, uh Trump has called for Zelensky to go. Zelensky said, okay, let's have some elections, but to have some elections we need to have at least 60 days of ceasefire to organize those elections and the Russians came back saying, keep on dreaming, we'll give you one day on the day of the elections. So the war is still back on and it's that seesaw element. Now to come to the EPA, which you were asking about, that was an announcement yesterday. So the EPA announced that the 2025 small refinery exemptions will fully be transferred onto larger refineries across 2026 and 2027. Okay. So the reaction of the market is always a little bit complex because we not everyone understands what it means and the first reaction was for soybean oil to fall and the expectation is for soybean oil to rally later. In a sense that um if you transfer those small exemptions from small refineries to big refineries, it means the big refineries would have to blend more biodiesel and at some point in 2026 and 2027, they would have to use more soybean oil. Yeah. Um and that is at a time when um the soybean exports are still doing well. So we are some 9% ahead of the pace that we need to be to in order to get to the USDA annual figure. And that is also on the back of the relationship with the data on China. Uh so the Chinese have told us that over the past two weeks they've had or they are going to have two large domestic auctions. So there was one for 518,000 tons that was for yesterday, we're waiting for the result of that one. And there's another one of 504,000 tons for the 20th of October. So what does that mean? It means that China is making space for more imports and this morning we had confirmation that post Xi-Trump meeting, China would have booked some 8 to 10 cargoes of US soybean. Um the issue with all this is that Cofco is telling us, careful, we are at overcapacity here. So it's it could become a logistical issue for China. And to finish on the US side, the crop conditions were uh pretty stable, but they're still 1% below the five-year average of uh 58%. Okay, and last but not least, conclude anything on Brazil in soybeans and also rapeseed, let's not forget. So the um Brazilians were saying last week that they had some rain and that the pace of planting had dropped a bit. Now Patria Agronegocios came up with some figures for the past week. It's 19.77% planted so far. It's ahead of the 12.86% at the same time last year. So we've recouped that little dip in planting last week and we're still ahead. Um and in terms of um rapeseed, there's a few elements. So the first one is that watch on the spread, the Nov-Feb spread. It's very interesting at this point because we've got the option expiry tomorrow. We know that the specs and the funds were very long, then they needed to roll. There's some 15.7 thousand lots of open interest still. And the spread has gone all the way down to minus 58, which no one had expected. Uh so an absolute bloodbath in that sense. But now that the spec roll is almost complete, that spread is starting to go back up. It was trading minus 39.75 on the close yesterday. As I walked in it was trading minus 36. Okay. Uh then on the EU side, the imports are lagging a bit, so it's about 1 million tons of rapeseed imports from the EU so far compared to 1.2 at the same time last year. A little bit surprising when we know that we need more rapeseed. Um and the last bit is the Ukrainians. So the Ukrainians have favorable weather for their winter rapeseed at present and the crop is some 98.7% planted so far. Understood. Bert, thank you so much for all your insight and for joining us today. And thank you to our viewers for watching. For more financial content, don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel.",
  "description": "The USDA corn yield estimate came in well above expectations, pulling corn, wheat and soybeans lower before importers stepped in to buy.\n\nBertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales, explains how the WASDE report, Black Sea developments and biofuel policy moved grain markets.\n\nAlgeria's milling wheat tender drew European supply and possibly Russian wheat from Baltic ports, where Russia routes more than half its wheat exports. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's small refinery exemption shift points to more soybean oil use, as China auctions soybean reserves to make room for imports.\n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/collections/all?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_bertrand_oesterle&utm_content=share\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
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