Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 14, 2026 at 11:17 AM

Completed At

October 14, 2026 at 11:18 AM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

West African Cocoa Deliveries Lag and Volatility Stays High

Data Preview

{
  "title": "West African Cocoa Deliveries Lag and Volatility Stays High",
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    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
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  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Uncertainty around the next West African crop",
      "Weather conditions (El Niño, Harmattan, unexpected rains)",
      "Fragile demand for cocoa and sub-products",
      "Potential for smuggling due to price disparities between Ivory Coast and Ghana",
      "Reduced producer incentives for investment in cocoa farming due to low farmgate prices",
      "Productivity losses due to El Niño and Harmattan"
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Cocoa",
      "Cocoa market",
      "Supply",
      "Demand",
      "Prices",
      "West Africa",
      "Ivory Coast",
      "Ghana",
      "El Niño",
      "Harmattan",
      "Weather",
      "Crop yields",
      "Processing demand",
      "Smuggling"
    ],
    "summary": "The cocoa market is entering the fourth quarter with more balanced fundamentals, but significant uncertainty persists regarding the upcoming West African crop, weather conditions, and demand. While short-term supply has been better than expected due to strong harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, demand remains fragile. Concerns about El Niño's impact, particularly the Harmattan phenomenon in West Africa, and low farmgate prices in Ivory Coast are contributing to market volatility and potential future productivity losses. Processing demand data, expected mid-October, will be crucial to gauge the pace of recovery.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Lucca Bezzon",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ivory Coast",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "cocoa producer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ghana",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "cocoa producer"
      },
      {
        "name": "West Africa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "cocoa producer"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "weather phenomenon impacting cocoa production"
      },
      {
        "name": "Harmattan",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "dry and hot winds from the Sahara to West Africa"
      },
      {
        "name": "Sahara",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "origin of Harmattan winds"
      },
      {
        "name": "Indonesia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "cocoa producer suffering productivity losses"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ecuador",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "cocoa producer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "cocoa producer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "processing demand region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "processing demand region"
      },
      {
        "name": "North America",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "processing demand region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cocoa",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "main commodity discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cocoa butter",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "sub-product of cocoa"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The cocoa market enters the fourth quarter with more balanced fundamentals, but uncertainty remains around the next West African crop, weather conditions, demand, and potential price direction.",
        "timestamp": "00:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 2025-2026 harvest, which ended in August, concluded with a very big and surprising stock building scenario.",
        "timestamp": "01:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "This stock building was mainly due to better-than-expected harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and fragile demand.",
        "timestamp": "01:20",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Short-term, the market is better supplied than it used to be, which has caused prices to come down from historical levels seen in 2024-2025.",
        "timestamp": "01:38",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Despite recent drops, cocoa prices are still higher than the historical average of around $5,000-$6,000 per ton.",
        "timestamp": "01:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Market participants are fearful and eager to see how the 2026-2027 harvest will develop, especially in Ivory Coast and Ghana, contributing to market volatility.",
        "timestamp": "02:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The current harvest in Ivory Coast and Ghana started in early September, with around 50,000 tons delivered so far, indicating a slower start compared to previous harvests.",
        "timestamp": "03:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The harvest started earlier, which explains the slower rhythm in the initial phase.",
        "timestamp": "03:28",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "Bigger rains than expected in June during the bean development could impact the main crop and potentially lead to higher prices if conditions don't improve in the coming weeks.",
        "timestamp": "04:35",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ivory Coast's farmgate prices are very low compared to international prices and significantly lower than Ghana's.",
        "timestamp": "05:30",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "This price disparity and the monopoly of sales in these countries could lead to smuggling of beans and disincentivize producers from investing in fertilization and area expansion.",
        "timestamp": "06:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "El Niño has a heavy impact on the cocoa market, and the market is still sensitive from the 2023 El Niño.",
        "timestamp": "07:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market already anticipates a possible productivity loss, especially in Ivory Coast and Ghana, due to El Niño.",
        "timestamp": "07:45",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Indonesia is currently suffering bigger productivity losses due to El Niño, with significant reductions in precipitation and soil moisture since mid-year.",
        "timestamp": "08:06",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ecuador typically experiences bigger rains during El Niño years, and Brazil usually sees diminishing precipitation.",
        "timestamp": "08:30",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "In West Africa, El Niño's increased strength in the latter part of the year coincides with the Harmattan phenomenon (dry, hot winds from the Sahara), which could result in productivity losses, especially for the mid-crop (February-April).",
        "timestamp": "09:25",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Demand for cocoa sub-products, particularly butter, remains fragile due to high prices and substitutions.",
        "timestamp": "10:48",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Processing data from main associations worldwide (Europe, Asia, North America, Brazil, Ivory Coast), expected mid-October, will be crucial to understand the pace of demand recovery.",
        "timestamp": "10:28",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The worst of the demand reduction has likely passed, and a gradual recovery is expected over the coming years and months.",
        "timestamp": "11:24",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "historical average",
        "value": "5,000-6,000 dollars per ton",
        "instrument": "Cocoa",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses the cocoa market, including supply, demand, prices, and weather impacts in West Africa and other regions."
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  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZJ-klsoq4U",
  "transcript": "The cocoa market enters the fourth quarter with more balanced fundamentals, but uncertainty remains around the next West African crop, weather conditions, demand and the potential direction of prices. To discuss these issues, we're joined by Luca Bezzon, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil. Luca, welcome back. Good to see you. Hello, Johanna. Thank you for having me. My pleasure. As we head into the final quarter, how are cocoa supplies shaping up against demand? Okay, great. To summarize the main scenario that we see currently in the cocoa market, we have to discuss back a point that we've already discussed in previous analysis, which is an opposing force that we current see in the market. The first of the forces is that in the short-term, the market is better supplied than it used to be in considering the last few harvests. So, 25-26 harvest, which is the one that ended in August, concluded with a very big and surprising stock building scenario, mainly because we've seen a harvest better than expected in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and because demand continued to be fragile. It's still fragile and it's still recovering. So, we had to have these two factors that conclude this first force, which is that short-term is better supplied than it used to be, and that's why prices have come down from the historical levels seen in 25 in 2024 and 2025. Um, but at the same time, the other force is that, um, market participants are still very, uh, fearful and eager to see how the next harvest will, um, will be developed. So, the 26-27 harvest, mainly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, still plays a big role in the volatility of the market, and that's why we still see prices that even though they're lower than 24-25, they're still higher than the historical average, around 5,000-6,000 dollars per ton. And these two opposing forces continue to make the, the market volatile, and, um, we still, uh, didn't see an equilibrium, uh, price-wise. So, that's what we're going to discuss over the next couple of minutes. Yeah, actually, let's delve a little deeper into that. What are the main concerns surrounding the 2026-2027 West African crop? And obviously, the Ivory Coast and Ghana, as you mentioned before. Great. Uh, to talk a bit more about the supply side, um, we're, we're currently in the first few weeks of the harvest in Ivory Coast and Ghana. It started, as I've mentioned, in the beginning of September. Uh, we already see a delivery of around 50,000 tons. This, uh, considering, uh, the first few months of previous harvests, is a slower start. Uh, it's important to remind, however, that the harvest started earlier. So, it explains a bit why the rhythm is slower in the start. But there are also factors that concern, um, regarding the development of the rest of the crop. Uh, it's, uh, normal to see an increase in, in deliveries, especially between the months of October and December, which is, uh, naturally and seasonally the months that we see bigger deliveries. And these next few weeks are going to be the most important ones to to evaluate the volume of the harvest. And regarding this period, uh, we still, uh, expect the volumes to be slower than, for example, the last harvest, which was stronger than expected, as I've mentioned. But it could be worse than, for example, the seasons of 23-24 and 24-25, which were harvests that were not that good. So, the next few weeks are going to be very important. Um, there is one factor that, uh, preoccupies, was that during the development of the beans, especially during the main, during the month of June, uh, we had bigger rains than expected, and that could have, uh, impacted the development of this main crop, and that would be, uh, a scenario that would, uh, make prices go higher if the next few weeks don't go as planned. I see. So then, how are the prices farmers receive and producer incentives affecting when and where they sell their cocoa across West Africa? Great. There's a particularity on the cocoa market in these two main countries, Ivory Coast and Ghana, is which they define the fixated price for the, the producers to receive. And they've already discussed this, they've released it officially. Ivory Coast prices are very low compared to the international prices, the stock exchange prices. And Ghana, even though they're lower than, than their international prices, they're way higher than the Ivory Coast ones, which could, uh, in turn, uh, um, show and take the, the market to a scenario where there is, uh, smuggling of beans between borders. They have the monopoly of sales of these beans, and it's, it's a crime to smuggle cocoa beans from one border to another. And because they have this monopoly, and because the producer has to follow those prices, uh, they may have less incentives, for example, to fertilize and to treat and to expand, uh, in area. And that could, uh, have a short-term effects, especially regarding the volume of the harvest, uh, in, specifically in the fertilizer side. And they could have medium and long-term effects, mainly because, uh, related to the, the investments and the increase of areas. So, this is a scenario, especially in Ivory Coast, which has a farmgate price fixated that is very lower than Ghana, for example. It could have implications, uh, that could be as seen in the 23-24 harvest, for example, uh, which the market was very distorted in that sense. Understood. Um, I can't have an interview right now without bringing up El Niño. So, how much could the weather affect cocoa supplies and prices over the rest of the year? Great. El Niño is a factor that has a heavy impact on the cocoa market, mainly because the market is still sensitive over the last El Niño, the 2023 El Niño, which caused all of the, uh, ruckus that we've seen over the last few years. And because of that, market already anticipates a possible productivity loss, especially in Ivory Coast and Ghana. But as we've studied over the last couple of weeks, the El Niño impacts, it has impacts, uh, and mainly negative impacts in the main producing regions, not only in West Africa. For example, Indonesia is the main country that is suffering bigger losses, bigger productivity losses regarding El Niño. They've seen since the middle of the year a diminishing and, and, uh, brutal, uh, loss in precipitation and soil moisture. Uh, for example, Ecuador is quite the opposite. Ecuador usually has bigger rains in El Niño, uh, years. And last, last month, in September, we've already seen some, uh, increase in precipitation, which could result in in productivity loss. It's still too early to see. And, uh, Brazil, we also see a diminishing precipitation, usually in El Niño years. And West Africa, which is the main producer, uh, historically, we've also seen, uh, a, a relation between productivity loss and, and El Niño. We still haven't seen that quite as much as Indonesia, for example. But in June and July, uh, we've seen, uh, some type of, uh, distortion related to precipitation, which is already having impacts on, uh, the main crop right now, which is the, the one that started in September. And there's also a very important factor, which is that, uh, El Niño, which is expected to increase its strength in the last few years of the year, coincides in West Africa with the Harmattan phenomenon, which is a phenomenon which carries dry and hot winds from the Sahara to the West African region. And in years of El Niño, this phenomenon tends to be higher, which could result in productivity losses mainly for the mid-crop, which starts in February and April. So, it could impact the volumes for West Africa as well. Several things to look at then. Luca, one last thing. Um, is demand for cocoa picking up or slowing down? And what could that mean for prices as we head into the fourth quarter? Um, regarding demand, uh, I think it's important to wait a few days to have a more clear picture of the scenario. Uh, in the middle of October, we're going to see the, the releases for the main associations, for the main processing associations worldwide. So, Europe, Asia, North America, Brazil, and Ivory Coast are going to release their numbers. And this number will be very important to understand how processing demand is picking up. Uh, we still understand that sub-product demand, especially butter, is still fragile, mainly because of the, uh, substitutions and the diminishing use of cocoa butter because of the high prices that we've seen over the last couple of years. And the processing data will be very crucial to understand if that's something that we're still seeing worldwide. We have some follow-ups on Ivory Coast processing, monthly follow-ups, and they are better than expected. Uh, we understand that the worst of the demand, uh, of the demand reduction has passed, and we're probably going to see over the last couple of years and months a gradual recovery. But these processing data are very important to understand how much and at what rate. So, I would, uh, uh, have to wait a bit to have a more definitive scenario, because this data is really important. But that's the main, uh, scenario that we see and the main analysis that we have right now. Okay. Well, then we'll have to check back in with you at the end of the month. Luca, thank you for joining us and for all that insight. And thank you to our viewers for watching. For more financial content, don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel.",
  "description": "The West African cocoa crop for 2026/27 is off to a slower start in Ivory Coast and Ghana, keeping cocoa volatile despite a large stock build.\n\nLucca Bezzon, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, explains the supply and demand forces pulling the cocoa market in opposite directions.\n\nEl Niño is cutting cocoa productivity hardest in Indonesia, while a stronger Harmattan threatens the West African mid crop. Fixed farm gate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana raise smuggling risk, and mid-October cocoa grind data will show how far cocoa butter demand has recovered.\n\nDownload the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/commodities-outlook/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=qr_code&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26\n\nDiscover Actionable Markets Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: \nhttps://shop.stonex.com/collections/cocoa?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=qr_code&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26_sxtv_lucca_bezzon\n\n00:00 - Cocoa's Q4 Supply Standoff\n00:36 - Stock Build Meets Crop Fear\n02:43 - Ivory Coast, Ghana Start Slow\n04:56 - Farm Gate Gap Risks Smuggling\n07:06 - El Niño Hits Indonesia Hardest\n09:25 - Harmattan Threatens Mid-Crop\n10:03 - Grind Data Tests Butter Demand\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#Cocoa #StoneX #LuccaBezzon #ElNino\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-14T11:01:11Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rZJ-klsoq4U/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-14",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
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