GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4146
Reporting Date: 2026-10-14T06:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 14, 2026 at 06:25 AM
- Completed At
- October 14, 2026 at 06:25 AM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 5.5109
},
"daily_series": [
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 0.9375,
"cdd_ecmwf": 1.1833,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 64.0625,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 66.1833
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 8.5458,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 5.2125,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 56.4542,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.7875
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 11.5875,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.6125,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.4125,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 56.3875
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 17.1708,
"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 51.2708,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 47.8292
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 15.2333,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 55.4625,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 49.7667
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 6.0667,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 12.5375,
"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 58.9333,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 52.4625
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 58.7
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 2.7917,
"valid_date": "2026-10-21",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 62.2083
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 56.0917,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 63.7458
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-23",
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-24",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 53.0792
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-25",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.0292
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-26",
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-27",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 66.6292
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 12.0533,
"valid_date": "2026-10-28",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 49.1583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 52.9467
}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 166.3709,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 3.3917,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 116.7407
},
{
"id": "nyc",
"lat": 40.71,
"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 46.7042
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
{
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"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
"demand_weight": 0.1,
"noaa_region_hint": "east",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 45.1249,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 22.5543,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 37.7683,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 36.25
}
],
"run_deltas": {
"prior_fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-14T00:25:18Z",
"prior_reporting_date": "2026-10-14T00:00:00Z",
"delta_convergence_score": -0.0368,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": -3.8914,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 21.246,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": -1.2377,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 0.5951,
"delta_weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 0.9437
},
"source_url": "https://customer-api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast",
"fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-14T06:25:09Z",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-14T06:00:00Z",
"schema_version": "1",
"report_decision": {
"notify": false,
"reason": "off_cycle",
"report": "on_change",
"embeddings": false,
"graph_ingest": "with_report",
"generate_report": false
},
"temperature_unit": "°F",
"convergence_score": 0.179827,
"degree_day_base_f": 65.0,
"forecast_init_utc": "2026-10-14T00:00Z",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 32.44,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 123.0761,
"location_catalog_fingerprint": "59f98a47f7b1bf8e9d0d8da813939ec433b680e19ff804ae18b5bb4c3f183bc8",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 31.8491,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 92.9059,
"weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 4.5609
}
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GfsEcmwfUsDemandHubForecastFeed