Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 13, 2026 at 07:17 PM

Completed At

October 13, 2026 at 07:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Closes 10/13 Grains Fall on EPA SRE Proposal, Harvest, Report Hangover: Cattle Consolida

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Closes 10/13 Grains Fall on EPA SRE Proposal, Harvest, Report Hangover: Cattle Consolida",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "If corn prices take out the 200-day moving average and the report day low of $4.70, it could generate another round of liquidation.",
      "The market bulls for corn face a long and frustrating wait for potential yield adjustments in the November report.",
      "There is uncertainty about whether diesel refineries in Russia and the Middle East will be rebuilt, given the global shift away from fossil fuels.",
      "Consumer spending on goods like beef could decline if credit card debt continues to rise and savings deplete, leading consumers to say 'enough is enough'."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Grains",
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Wheat",
      "Livestock",
      "Cattle",
      "EPA Regulations",
      "Crop Yields",
      "Global Trade",
      "Energy Prices",
      "Consumer Spending",
      "El Nino",
      "Black Sea Grain Deal"
    ],
    "summary": "The video discusses the agricultural markets, focusing on grains and livestock. It highlights market disappointment with the EPA's small refinery exemption decision, leading to selling in grains. Corn is facing technical resistance and potential liquidation if key moving averages are breached, while soybeans are seeing strong yields but producers are selling due to quality concerns and uncertainty around Chinese demand. The wheat market is struggling with low export demand and uncompetitive pricing. The cattle market shows some strength in cash prices despite high consumer gas prices, but rising consumer debt is a concern.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "EPA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "decision on small refinery exemptions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures trade, yield debate, price support"
      },
      {
        "name": "Livestock",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures trade"
      },
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "host"
      },
      {
        "name": "Jim McCormick",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "analyst from AgMarket.Net"
      },
      {
        "name": "Funds",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "carrying a long position in corn"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn prices at highest since 2023"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Nino",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "building, affecting corn crops"
      },
      {
        "name": "South Africa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn crop affected by El Nino"
      },
      {
        "name": "South America",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn crop affected by El Nino"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "yield reports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Nebraska",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn yield increase"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "yield increase, harvest pressure"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "soybean purchases, quiet lately"
      },
      {
        "name": "White House",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "anticipated soybean purchases by China"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "situation impacting wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Plains",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "moisture moving in, more wheat acres"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "export demand, chart resistance"
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel Fuel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "presidential executive order, world market"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "diesel production capability lost, buying diesel from"
      },
      {
        "name": "Middle East",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "diesel production capability lost"
      },
      {
        "name": "Strait of Hormuz",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "oil flowing through"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market, chart breakout, cash trade"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The market was disappointed with the EPA's small refinery exemption decision, despite a 100% reallocation, due to a 60-day comment period and no clear timeframe for when these reallocations would take place.",
        "timestamp": "00:43",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The corn market is currently trading between its 100-day and 200-day moving averages.",
        "timestamp": "01:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Funds are still carrying a pretty long position in corn, influenced by high energy prices, the European crisis (where corn prices are at their highest since 2023), and the building El Nino affecting South African and South American corn crops.",
        "timestamp": "01:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If corn prices start taking out the 200-day moving average and the report day low of $4.70, it could generate another round of liquidation.",
        "timestamp": "01:45",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The USDA's reported 2.7 bushel increase in corn yield, particularly an 11 bushel per acre increase in Nebraska, was surprising and seen as potentially inaccurate by some in the trade.",
        "timestamp": "03:07",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Historically, delayed harvests (like in 2015 and 2024) have led to yield adjustments in the November USDA report.",
        "timestamp": "03:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Most clients are pleased with soybean yields, with many reporting record yields, and the government's yield adjustment seems accurate.",
        "timestamp": "05:17",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The farm community is deciding to move soybeans right out of the field to market and store corn, partly due to quality and color issues with the beans.",
        "timestamp": "05:38",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "China has bought about 15 million metric tons of the 25 million metric tons of soybeans that the White House had said they would purchase, but China has not actually confirmed what they're going to do.",
        "timestamp": "06:04",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US wheat exports are at 3-year lows, and the US is not competitively priced on the world wheat market, leading to rallies backing off due to lack of export demand.",
        "timestamp": "07:30",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The presidential executive order regarding dyed diesel and the idea of buying diesel from Russia do not fundamentally help the diesel fuel situation, as it is a world market that flows to the highest bidders.",
        "timestamp": "08:28",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Diesel production capability has been lost in Russia and the Middle East, with refined products running at 20-25% of pre-war capacity, and rebuilding these refineries is a long-term question given the global shift away from fossil fuels.",
        "timestamp": "08:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The cattle market saw a chart breakout last week, but there hasn't been a lot of follow-through, suggesting some consolidation or profit-taking.",
        "timestamp": "09:46",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cash cattle trade in the North was steady to slightly firmer, and cash is anticipated to be higher again this week, as consumer demand is still present even at higher prices.",
        "timestamp": "10:29",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Red flags for consumer spending include credit card debt at all-time highs and consumer savings at all-time lows, raising questions about when consumers will reach their limit.",
        "timestamp": "10:17",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Report day low",
        "value": "4.70",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Handles last year",
        "value": "8-9",
        "instrument": "Soybeans",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Above this year",
        "value": "12",
        "instrument": "Soybeans",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Loss off highs",
        "value": "70 cents",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "100% reallocation, but with a 60-day comment period and no clear timeframe (2026/2027 split vs. all 2027)",
        "metric": "Small Refinery Exemptions",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "EPA"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.7 bushel increase",
        "metric": "Corn Yield",
        "period": "past report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 11 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska Corn Yield",
        "period": "past report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "highest price since 2023",
        "metric": "Corn Price",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "European Market"
      },
      {
        "value": "15 million metric tons purchased out of 25 million anticipated",
        "metric": "China Soybean Purchases",
        "period": "anticipated",
        "source": "White House"
      },
      {
        "value": "3-year lows",
        "metric": "Total Exports",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "US Wheat Exports"
      },
      {
        "value": "Strait of Hormuz back to pre-war levels",
        "metric": "Oil Flow",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Global Market"
      },
      {
        "value": "20-25% of pre-war capacity",
        "metric": "Diesel Production Capacity",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Russia and Middle East"
      },
      {
        "value": "all-time highs",
        "metric": "Credit Card Debt",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Consumer Data"
      },
      {
        "value": "all-time lows",
        "metric": "Consumer Savings",
        "period": "current",
        "source": "Consumer Data"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses grain (corn, soybeans, wheat) and livestock (cattle) markets, including factors like EPA regulations, crop yields, global demand, and energy prices."
  },
  "video_id": "kKNPtyPJp5o",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKNPtyPJp5o",
  "transcript": "Markets Now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins, and then there are wins you get with Brevant Seeds. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. And by Golden Harvest. The next generation of seed technology is here, and we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Rook with Jim McCormick of AgMarket. We saw mostly lower grain and livestock futures trade on Tuesday. And Jim, we had some early strength in the grains, and then we had EPA come out with their decision on how they were going to try to reallocate these small refinery exemptions. Was the market disappointed with that? It was. I mean, the rumors were that we would get 100% reallocation, Michelle, and that is what we got. But like you said, the market was a little bit disappointed because, A, they gave us a 60-day comment period, so we're really got another 60 days to wait and see. But more importantly, they did not make a decision of when these reallocations would take place time frame wise. One argument is they'll split it between 26 and 27. The other side of the argument was they'd wait and push it all into 2027. And the market is looking at, hey, long term, that's friendly, but, you know, markets are what can you do for me now? And delaying it to 2027 was just not what the market bulls were looking for, and, uh, then they turned around and sold it, it feels like. Yeah. And in the case of corn, we still have report hangover, but even though we held the 200-day moving average, we can't get above what, the 100-day? So we, did we hit some chart resistance? We're right now trading between those two. Uh, technically, you'd like to get over that 100-day because the funds are carrying a pretty long position still. If you get over that 100-day, that might convince them to hold on to it a little bit longer this position. I fear if you start taking out that 200-day and you take and start taking out that report day low, that 470 area, you could generate another round of liquidation. Because you look at where we are right now, Michelle, we are essentially back to where we were before the market really got that aggressive run in late August on fears of crop or the hype that the crop was not there. So, uh, you know, the funds are hanging on precariously, and it could be a negative ugly a negative leg down if we can't hold that 200-day moving average. How long do you think the funds still are in the corn market because they've exited a lot since the last two big reports? I would guess they're somewhere around 200, maybe 225,000 where it's at. I think worst case scenario, they could par that down to 100 to 150,000. I don't believe they'll go completely flat, Michelle. You got to remember, there's still three storylines that are out there that probably that partly brought funds into position, not to just the US corn story. You obviously have the high energy prices, that inflationary story. You have European crisis. If you look at the price of corn in Europe, it is at the highest price since 2023. So, that should be price supportive. And then lastly, you still have this El Nino building that we still don't know how that's going to affect South Africa corn crop, as well as the uh, South America corn crop. Jim, you talk about the yield debate in corn. Obviously, the bulls were disappointed that we had a 2.7 bushel increase. Do you think that we will see a change or decrease in yield when we get into the November report or not? Right now, the argument from the trade seems to think that they will come back down, but the trade was obviously disappointed thinking they were going to lower it in this past report. So, we'll see. The fact of the matter is the harvest is delayed. We've had two years recent history where we were delayed harvest. One is in 2015, the other one is in 2024. In 2015, they raised the crop a little over a bushel in the November report. In 2024, I believe they lowered it a little over a bushel. So, when you have a delayed harvest, it's not a big, you know, data set. They do tend to make some adjustments in November. So, we'll see, but it's going to be a long frustrating wait, I believe, for the market bulls at this point in time because we're going to trade the number we got, and right now, you got to admit it is a bearish number. It is a bearish number, and does it match up with what you're hearing from yield reports, um, or did USDA get this wrong, especially the methodology? Nebraska up 11 bushels per acre, really, Jim? It it did surprise me, Michelle. I was in the camp of maybe a little bit smaller downward revision. Most of our clients, we do I deal with clients all across the country, have been relatively, I wouldn't say they're disappointed. It's just down dramatically from the record highs, maybe near trend, a little bit below trend in Nebraska. You're hearing a lot of people talk about some disease pressure. So, yes, it was a surprise to see where they're at where where that Nebraska crop came out. There might have just been some missed where they missed it in their methodology, and they hopefully they will catch that and make that adjustment to the bullish side for the farmers, you know, viewpoint as we get into that November adjustment. Because remember, Michelle, they do the November adjustment. Traditionally, they make zero supply adjustments in Jan in December, and then you'll get that final adjustment in January. I just hope we're not still talking about this in January, and, uh, we get some real resolution before then. What about soybeans? Um, we did see a little bit of an increase in yield. Obviously, we know we've got a big crop out there, and everybody's in the field. So, do you think we saw some harvest pressure today in beans? On the yield yield side, I got to tell you, in general, Michelle, most of our clients are very pleased with the yields. We are hearing a lot of record yields, so the yield adjustment from the government does seem accurate in my eyes. I wouldn't be shocked if they crept it up a little bit. But yes, right now, it seems very, very aggressive. Most producers are out there trying to get the beans. And right now, because of the quality, a lot of the color issues of these beans, it feels in general, Michelle, that the farm community has decided they're going to move the beans right out of the field, take it to market, and they're going to store the corn. So, you're probably seeing a little bit of additional hedge pressure maybe than you'd normally see year in, year out. Well, doesn't that make sense, Jim? I mean, last year in the Western, especially Northwestern Corn Belt, we had $8 and $9 handles in front of beans. This year, we're above $12. I I think you got to take advantage of it when it's profitable. You know, the reality is China has bought about 15 million metric tons of the 25 million that the USDA has said that the White House, I should say, has said they're going to purchase. But the Chinese have never actually confirmed what they're going to do. So, I guess if you're look at it, I would see I understand why the producers are choosing to move that grain today and maybe not bet everything on the Chinese after being disappointed last year when the China didn't come in and buy till late, late in the marketing year. Speaking of China, they've been pretty quiet lately, Jim. They have. They have come back from their gold their vacation. We've seen we've heard some talk of them trying to price a few loads. Hopefully, that comes to fruition. Like I said, they've bought about 15 million metric tons of the 25 that's anticipated. Hopefully, they come back and continue to make that purchases. We need them to, to be quite honest. Yeah. So, we gave up early gains as well. I know the dollar was lower. That probably helped, but was this more about what's going on in the Black Sea because it looks like again, we got some more headlines this uh today. I think part of it is the Black Sea. I mean, that's on again, off again. Are they going to get grain out of the Black Sea? That's definitely having an impact on it. I think the other thing you're looking at right now, Michelle, is there is quite a bit of moisture moving into part of the Plains, and there's a lot of talk of more wheat acres getting planted. You know, the big problem on the world wheat is the US just isn't competitively priced on the world wheat. So, it kind of rallies up and then it just backs off as we just don't have that export demand. Yeah. And, uh, export inspections this morning and exports on in some total on wheat were behind, aren't we? We're behind. I think we're at three-year lows. So, uh, you know, the reality is if you're an exporter, you're not going to, you know, you need to drive prices down if you're an exporter trying to get somebody to come in and buy our wheat. I know that's not what the producers out there want to hear, but right now, if you're trying to export it, we're just not competitively priced. Yeah. Did wheat also run up into some chart resistance? We had a little bit of chart resistance right there, but I think right now, you know, the market is more kind of gauging and like I said, we mentioned it, that crop report we had on Friday really has affected the corn market, and that seems to be having a little bit of effect on the wheat market as it's kind of been more of a follower, at least at the moment. Yeah, we've lost 70 cents off the highs in corn. That has not helped the wheat market for sure. Um, question about diesel fuel because we saw the dyed diesel presidential executive order, then we saw the President come in and say, hey, we're going to buy diesel from Russia. Does any of this really help the cause? No. It doesn't. I mean, the reality is diesel is a world market, and it's going to flow who the highest bidders are that need it right now. And, you know, that's the problem we've got right now. And even those volumes that President Trump was talking about was only a few days worth of consumption for the US. I mean, the reality is this, Michelle, we have lost a lot of diesel production capability in Russia. We've also lost a lot of capability in the Middle East. There's a lot of talk about the amount of oil that is flowing through this straight of Hermouth, and there's been reports, it's back to pre-war levels. The problem is the refined products, your diesel, stuff like that, it's running at 20 to 25% of pre-war capacity. And that's just going to take a long time to rebuild. And the question is, will they rebuild it? Because you also have a world that is trying to get away from fossil fuels, especially in the car side of the equation. Is there who, you know, the question is, who's going to spend billions of dollars to rebuild these refineries, knowing that if you got to look at what's going on in China and how aggressive they are on the electric cars, is there going to be demand for that diesel 10, 15 years down the line? Is it worth the investment? That's the fear that's the question I have. Yeah, there's no quick fix, that's for sure. So, the cattle market, despite the fact gas prices have been higher for consumers, um, we had a chart breakout last week. We haven't seen a lot of follow through on that. Are we just going to see some consolidation or is this just some profit taking, you think? I think it's a little bit of consolidation right now. Like I said, we did have the breakout. Part of the breakout was fed on the drop in the grain prices. Now we're waiting to see where the cash market is, but in general, the trend has been a little bit higher. And then it also comes down to the consumer, Michelle. In general, they've hung in there quite well. The question is, are we going to get to the point where the consumer says enough's enough, I can't afford it at this point. We haven't seen that yet, but, uh, you are hearing reports that credit card debt's at all-time highs, consumer savings at all-time lows. Those are red those are red flags in my opinion. Yeah. But boxes were up at noon here today, and the cash trade, surprisingly, in the North was steady, just maybe a little bit firmer here. Do you expect cash to be higher again this week or not? Right now, the anticipation is steady a little bit higher at the moment, you know, because like I said, in general, the demand is there even at these higher prices. Okay. Good enough. Thanks so much. That is Jim McCormick with AgMarket and Markets Now. Tight margins, tough conditions, relentless pressures. At Golden Harvest, we know your challenges don't slow down, but then neither do we. Back by Syngenta R&D and innovations like Durac trait technology, we pair locally tested solutions with seed advisor expertise to deliver real results on your acres. Because when it comes to next gen technology, we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Durac hybrids now available for the 2027 season. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win, you win so big, the very ground beneath your feet cries tears of joy. You win so big that second place feels like a participation trophy. You win so big, you might as well be harvesting buried treasure. Oh, sorry, just one more. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win, you hit the damn jackpot. Don't just win, win. Talk with your retailer or visit brevant.com/jackpot to get started.",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-13T18:58:18Z",
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