GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4135
Reporting Date: 2026-10-13T18:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 13, 2026 at 06:25 PM
- Completed At
- October 13, 2026 at 06:25 PM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.7
},
"daily_series": [
{
"cdd_gfs": 9.0917,
"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 9.9917,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 74.0917,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 74.9917
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 2.8042,
"cdd_ecmwf": 1.8583,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 62.1958,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 66.8583
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 8.3667,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 3.7,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 56.6333,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 61.3
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 7.8125,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.5417,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 57.1875
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 17.4292,
"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 50.7042,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 47.5708
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 9.4,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 13.8083,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 55.6,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.1917
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 59.7542,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.8083
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.9417,
"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 59.8333,
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-21",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.6417
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.5792
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-23",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 61.7125
},
{
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 57.2458
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-25",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 50.2875
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-26",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 61.3917
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 9.5208,
"valid_date": "2026-10-27",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 50.1583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.4792
}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 11.425,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 98.4458,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 11.85,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 110.5458
},
{
"id": "nyc",
"lat": 40.71,
"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 5.5039
},
"daily_series": [
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
{
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"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 71.15,
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 73.875,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
"demand_weight": 0.1,
"noaa_region_hint": "east",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 79.8833,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 13.5708,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 43.8166,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 36.7624
}
],
"run_deltas": {
"prior_fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-13T12:25:04Z",
"prior_reporting_date": "2026-10-13T12:00:00Z",
"delta_convergence_score": -0.0325,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 1.1861,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": -0.9507,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": -0.3342,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": -1.0617,
"delta_weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 0.6259
},
"source_url": "https://customer-api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast",
"fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-13T18:25:03Z",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-13T18:00:00Z",
"schema_version": "1",
"report_decision": {
"notify": false,
"reason": "off_cycle",
"report": "on_change",
"embeddings": false,
"graph_ingest": "with_report",
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},
"temperature_unit": "°F",
"convergence_score": 0.212314,
"degree_day_base_f": 65.0,
"forecast_init_utc": "2026-10-13T00:00Z",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 44.844,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 76.8852,
"location_catalog_fingerprint": "59f98a47f7b1bf8e9d0d8da813939ec433b680e19ff804ae18b5bb4c3f183bc8",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 38.8331,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 94.0035,
"weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.71
}
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