Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 13, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

October 13, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Early 10/13 Grains Bounce on Black Sea Concerns, Despite Harvest Pressure

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Early 10/13 Grains Bounce on Black Sea Concerns, Despite Harvest Pressure",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Continued harvest pressure for grains.",
      "Geopolitical events (Russia-Ukraine conflict) adding war premium and uncertainty.",
      "Funds continuing to liquidate positions on market strength.",
      "Discrepancies between USDA reports and actual farmer yields causing market volatility.",
      "High diesel prices impacting overall costs."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Grains",
      "Corn",
      "Wheat",
      "Soybeans",
      "Cattle",
      "Hogs",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Market Technicals",
      "Yield Reports",
      "Energy Prices",
      "Fund Positioning"
    ],
    "summary": "The analyst discusses the current state of grain and livestock markets. Corn and wheat are seeing a \"war premium\" due to geopolitical events, while farmer reports suggest corn yields are 5-10% worse than last year, despite USDA's optimistic report. Soybeans have shown resilience with strong demand, particularly for meal, even with record yields. Cattle markets are recovering, with cash prices showing steady movement and USDA reporting an eighth consecutive month of production reduction.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures, yields, prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures, prices, plantings"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures, yields, production, demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "futures, cash market, production"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "geopolitical events, grain vessel sinking"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "grain vessel sinking"
      },
      {
        "name": "NATO",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Russia testing boundaries"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bulgaria",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "grain vessel sinking near its coast"
      },
      {
        "name": "Nebraska",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "crop ratings, irrigated land"
      },
      {
        "name": "Plain States",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "yield controversy"
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "energy prices, market shock"
      },
      {
        "name": "Crude Oil",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "energy prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "Trump administration",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "efforts to keep energy prices low"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mark Knight",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "analyst from Farmer's Keeper Financial"
      },
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "interviewer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Farmer's Keeper Financial",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Mark Knight's affiliation"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Corn and wheat futures are pushing higher due to a \"war premium\" after Russia sank a Ukrainian grain vessel outside normal shipping routes near Bulgaria.",
        "timestamp": "00:50",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn prices bounced back 10 cents off Friday's lows, holding the 200-day moving average at 480 and the 100-day at 485.",
        "timestamp": "01:35",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "For corn, closes above 485 are needed to improve technicals and attract fund buyers.",
        "timestamp": "01:55",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Farmer reports indicate corn yields are generally 5-10% worse than last year, contrasting with USDA's 178.5 bushel estimate (a 5% reduction from last year).",
        "timestamp": "02:54",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean yields are impressive and in line with last year's good numbers, with strong demand from processors, particularly for meal.",
        "timestamp": "03:18",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Funds liquidated about 60,000 corn contracts last week, losing roughly half their long positions from August/early September.",
        "timestamp": "05:04",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market for wheat is trying to find a bottom, but the current rally is attributed to war premium rather than fundamental strength.",
        "timestamp": "06:26",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Crude oil prices have remained surprisingly low given global events, and diesel prices are a significant concern for the market.",
        "timestamp": "10:06",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cattle markets saw a great day on Friday, breaking above key resistance and achieving a higher weekly close, with cash prices moving in the right direction.",
        "timestamp": "10:45",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "USDA reported an eighth consecutive month of cattle production reduction.",
        "timestamp": "11:03",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "200-day moving average",
        "value": "480",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "100-day moving average",
        "value": "485",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Demand level",
        "value": "470-480",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Previous demand level",
        "value": "550",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Expected lower drift in January",
        "value": "170s, 173, 174",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "target"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "178.5 bushels (5% reduction from last year)",
        "metric": "Corn Yield",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "5-10% worse than last year",
        "metric": "Corn Yields",
        "period": "Last year",
        "source": "Farmer Reports"
      },
      {
        "value": "46% good to excellent",
        "metric": "Nebraska Crop Rating",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "Up 11 bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Production",
        "period": "September to October",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "60,000 contracts",
        "metric": "Corn Funds Liquidation",
        "period": "Last week",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "8th straight monthly reduction",
        "metric": "Cattle Production",
        "source": "USDA"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses grain and cattle markets, including specific price movements, yield reports, and geopolitical influences, directly aligning with the requested topics."
  },
  "video_id": "Kr6Ng7xY_Ls",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kr6Ng7xY_Ls",
  "transcript": "It's now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins, and then there are wins you get with Brevant Seeds. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. And by Golden Harvest. The next generation of seed technology is here, and we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. And welcome to Markets Now here on a Tuesday morning. I'm Michelle Rook with Mark Knight of Farmer's Keeper Financial. We are seeing grains and cattle futures mixed this morning. Hogs are mostly lower. In the grains market, let's start off there because you do have corn and wheat pushing a little bit higher. In the case of the corn market, is it short covering? I mean, we have held that 200-day moving average here even through the report. Or is it war premium? What's going on? Yeah, no, um, thanks for having me on. Um, I I honestly believe that today's it we're putting a little war premium on. Russia sank a uh Ukrainian uh grain vessel uh last night, hit another one. Uh, and and it wasn't in the normal shipping routes. Um, it was real it was right outside of Bulgaria. So they're testing what they can kind of get away with with NATO and and all of that. So that has has wheat running a little bit higher and and I think corn's um, you know, running running with that. Um, corn corn's in an interesting area. Uh, we were trading, you know, as we came down hard Friday, uh, it was impressive the 10-cent bounce back off the lows that we got on Friday, which was pretty important because that 480 number that we bounced back to, uh, was the 200-day moving average. And so, you know, you got the 200-day at 480, the the 100-day at 485. So we're really in a tight niche area. We need some closes just above this 485. I think it will obviously help that that technical, maybe those fund buyers and things like that to get us going again. Even beyond the technicals, Mark, when we got down to that level, do you think we found good end-user buying? I mean, we had corrected over 70 cents off the highs in corn. Great point. Demand demand at 470, 480 is going to be way different than demand at 550. So, um, yes, I think you're going to see exports uh step up the pace. Um, keep in mind though, we, you know, we're probably going to have another couple couple weeks of harvest pressure. So if we can get through the next couple two, three weeks, um, I think we'll maybe see some better times for corn. I'm hopeful anyways. And what are you hearing in terms of yield results? I mean, do you think they match up with what USDA gave us on Friday because obviously that controversy continues to swirl here, especially over in the Plain States. Uh, I I I thought they had it right before, you know, the 178.5 was a was a 5% reduction um off of last year's number. The majority of my customers, the company's customers that we've, you know, we get together and kind of talk and hash things out, uh, farmers are telling us that they're really impressed and surprised with bean yields. They're kind of in line with, you know, good numbers from last year. Corn, however, they're they're saying generally speaking, 5 to 10% worse than last year. So, you know, I was truthfully thought that we'd we'd gradually drift lower to the maybe the lower 170s, 173, 174 when it's all said and done in January, but uh, you know, we kind of got hit with the surprise report and obviously Nebraska's been talked about here the last couple of days. Um, we'll see what comes comes of that, but uh, you know, it's And I think the rub there, Mark, becomes that they were at 46% good to excellent on their crop rating and we still went up 11 bushels from September to October. So that's the rub and you picked up what, 205 million bushels in the Dakotas all the way down through Texas. Yeah. In the Plain States. Different area, not not the not the big I-state productions, but uh, um, yes, uh, they they're going to come in and say that that the late rains, you know, helped helped the crop along. I'm assuming that's going to be the excuse, um, which, you know, makes sense in some areas, but then you take a state like Nebraska that's mostly irrigated, it doesn't necessarily make sense. So, we'll see what the USDA does in in future reports here. Yeah, and of course, the samples were kind of skewed there, um, not as many, I guess, irrigated versus dry land than normal, and so that's where the controversy continues to come in. You know, we talk about the 200-day moving average in corn. My other question for you is funds liquidated another what, 60,000 contracts last week and how who knows how much they liquidated at the end of the week? Are they going to continue to liquidate on strength here or not? That's absolutely the question. Um, those guys want market movement. They don't care if it's higher or lower, whatever. Um, and they, I will say this, I I always tell this to my customers, they push us too hard either direction. Um, so when they're selling off, they generally push us too far down. When the market's going higher, they generally push us too far higher. Um, I I would say that one can argue us getting to 550 pre-harvest in corn felt like they pushed us too high. And then that was corrected pretty quickly and, um, you know, they've lost about I I I'd say ballpark half their length that they had, uh, back in August, early September. And so, we'll see. We'll see what they want to do, uh, from here on out. Um, Yeah. Went from what, 400 to about 200,000, I think, is kind of the estimate here on corn. What about wheat? The again, we've held support there. We've had, um, a pretty good, I guess, correction off of the highs. So, is part of this just some short covering or just some value buying or what in the wheat? Yeah, I I mean, I think this market's maybe trying to find a bottom, but like I say, today's rally, I I don't put a ton of faith in that because it's just, I think it's it's war premium. Um, you know, it it'll be interesting, um, we were 10 points behind on five-year average wheat plantings last Monday. Um, I think the weather was there to get get caught up pretty quickly, uh, this this last week along with, you know, harvest of corn and beans. Yeah, and I think there's expectations for more wheat acres for sure with the with the insurance price being where it's at or the guarantee. Um, what about soybeans? Are we just seeing just maybe a little bit of harvest pressure there? I mean, it was such a big week last week for harvest. It was a huge week, and that's where everyone's expectations are for for beans to really really make a big jump this afternoon when we get those numbers. Um, you know, we we talk soybeans. They've held in there really, really well considering. I mean, considering a what, a buck 30 off in wheat, 70 cents off the highs in in corn, and beans are only 50 cents off their highs. Um, so it's it's pretty impressive what they've done. Um, we've talked and the processors have been out there bidding it, you know, bidding it up. Their margins are so good that, uh, you know, they've been bidding up. They've got a lot of beans in, uh, in the last week and a half, I I can tell you. Um, but, uh, there's been good demand. You know, Yeah, it is really a demand story because you had record yield and record production in that WASDE on Friday and yet we still held together. Yep. No doubt about it. Bean oil has been really strong from the demand side, and and really the surprise of everybody is the the the strength of the meal. Um, you know, the funds were very long, but man, we were exporting meal extremely well. The processors were were definitely not getting backed up, and in fact, that's why they were bidding up because they had a bunch of meal contracts that they had to make good on. So, Yeah, absolutely. Bean bean's an interesting one. It seems like, you know, there's a little more more risk in my head from this because it hasn't sold off nearly as much as the others. And and you talk the record uh record crop, record yield, record production. Um, but demand's the driver, you know? And, uh, it's a demand market. And so as long as we can, as long as those crushers can can remain positive, um, I I don't see a reason beans need to fall apart. For sure. Just a quick question about diesel. We've thrown a lot of things at that market from allowing dyed diesel over the road to now us buying from Russia some inventory. Is any of it really going to help? You know, I I mean, I think obviously Trump administration is is trying the best they can to keep energy prices low, and and they know that that diesel price is is a big sticking point with everything we buy. Um, so I think I I think it all can can help some to a certain degree. Um, but, uh, you know, it's it's a world kind of problem right now. And, uh, you know, we'll we'll monitor crude. I'm impressed, truthfully. I've been doing this 30-some years. I'm impressed crude oil has stayed as low as it has given what's going been going on in the world. Um, so, you know, diesel's diesel's where it's at, um, where where the big shock of the market is, and, uh, the pain, I should say. Um, but yeah, they're they're trying to do anything they can to to alleviate some of that pain. So, we'll see if it helps a little bit. Yeah. All right, finally, let's just talk about cattle. Uh, we had the big up day on Friday, got above some key resistance areas. We had a higher weekly close. And the last two days just consolidating here. What, waiting for cash or what? Yeah, um, great day for for cattle on Friday, obviously opposite of corn. Um, that helps corn cheaper corn prices helps a little bit in that equation, but, uh, USDA it it's not as widely reported out there because we were all focused on corn numbers and whatnot, but, uh, they did make their eighth straight production reduction. Uh, eight eight month in a row of of production reduction. Tough tough words to get out. Um, the uh That's a new production. We uh we are getting, uh, yeah, we're we're bouncing up to the 200-day moving average. We're bouncing between the 100 and 200-day moving average. Um, but yeah, great day on Friday. Uh, really nice recovery, um, over the last month, month and a half for for cattle. Uh, the cash market is, you know, behind just a little bit, but I've seen some better numbers. Um, you know, and, uh, it's moving in the right direction. Yeah. Steady at steady in a lot of places last week on the cash. So, that was some good news, I guess, in the north anyways. All right, thanks so much. That is Mark Knight with Farmer's Keeper Financial and Markets Now. Tight margins. Tough conditions. Relentless pressures. At Golden Harvest, we know your challenges don't slow down. But then, neither do we. Back by Syngenta R&D and innovations like Durac trait technology, we pair locally tested solutions with seed advisor expertise to deliver real results on your acres. Because when it comes to next-gen technology, we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Durac Hybrids now available for the 2027 season. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You win so big, the very ground beneath your feet cries tears of joy. You win so big that second place feels like a participation trophy. You win so big, you might as well be harvesting fairy treasure. Oh, sorry, just one more. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You hit the damn jackpot. Don't just win. Win. Talk with your retailer or visit brevant.com/jackpot to get started.",
  "description": "Mark Knight, Farmer's Keeper Financial",
  "match_reason": "No keyword filter configured",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T14:40:38Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Kr6Ng7xY_Ls/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-13",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
  "matched_keywords": [],
  "transcript_available": true
}