Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 13, 2026 at 01:17 PM

Completed At

October 13, 2026 at 01:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

British Pound Selloff Stalls at Support as Yields Cool Off

Data Preview

{
  "title": "British Pound Selloff Stalls at Support as Yields Cool Off",
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    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
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    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
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  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "A daily close below 1.3194 (ideally a weekly close) would mount resumption of the broader downtrend for the British Pound.",
      "Upcoming US inflation reads (CPI, PPI) have the potential to shift market expectations for the Fed's policy heading into next month."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "British Pound",
      "US Dollar",
      "Forex",
      "Technical Analysis",
      "Support and Resistance",
      "Fibonacci Retracements",
      "Pitchforks",
      "RSI",
      "Treasury Yields",
      "US CPI",
      "US PPI",
      "US Retail Sales",
      "UK Manufacturing Production",
      "UK Industrial Production",
      "UK GDP",
      "Central Bank Policy (Fed, BOE)"
    ],
    "summary": "The British Pound is currently at a critical support zone of 1.3194, having experienced four consecutive weekly declines. While US Treasury yields have pulled back, offering some relief, the Pound is consolidating within a monthly range. Key resistance levels are identified at 1.3265 and 1.3297-1.3300, with a break above these levels needed to shift the near-term focus to the upside. A daily or weekly close below 1.3194 would signal a resumption of the downtrend, with potential targets at 1.3140 and 1.3092. Upcoming US and UK economic data, particularly inflation figures, could influence market expectations for central bank policy.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Michael Boutros",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Senior Market Analyst with StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Michael Boutros's employer"
      },
      {
        "name": "British Pound",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Main instrument analyzed"
      },
      {
        "name": "US Dollar",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Mentioned in relation to Treasury yields"
      },
      {
        "name": "Treasury yields",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "30-year and 10-year yields coming off resistance"
      },
      {
        "name": "Fed",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "US Federal Reserve, discussed in relation to rate hike expectations"
      },
      {
        "name": "BOE",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Bank of England, speakers on tap"
      },
      {
        "name": "United States",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Source of CPI, PPI, Retail Sales data"
      },
      {
        "name": "UK",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Source of Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, GDP data"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The British Pound is spending its fourth consecutive week at a critical support zone around 1.3194.",
        "timestamp": "00:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "This support level is a 38.2% retracement off last year's low and the objective low week close.",
        "timestamp": "00:24",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Pound is at the bottom end of a massive yearly range, having checked resistance three times and support three times.",
        "timestamp": "00:37",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Treasury yields (30-year and 10-year) are pulling back from multi-decade highs, offering some relief to the Sterling.",
        "timestamp": "00:53",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The weekly RSI has not dropped below the 40 barrier since January of last year, indicating sustained defense of this level.",
        "timestamp": "01:25",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The monthly opening range for the British Pound is taking shape right above the 1.3194 level.",
        "timestamp": "01:41",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Initial resistance for the British Pound is at the objective monthly open of 1.3265, which was tagged yesterday and converges with the median line.",
        "timestamp": "02:11",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The main zone of interest for resistance is 1.3297-1.3300, which includes the objective May swing low and a 23.6% retracement off August highs.",
        "timestamp": "02:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A breach above 1.3297-1.3300 would be needed to shift the near-term focus to the upside.",
        "timestamp": "02:36",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Key support remains well defined at 1.3194.",
        "timestamp": "02:41",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A daily or ideally weekly close below 1.3194 would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend.",
        "timestamp": "03:16",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Downside targets if support breaks are the 2026 swing low and 2025 main August lows at 1.3140, followed by the 2023 high week close at 1.3092.",
        "timestamp": "03:26",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US CPI is expected to uptick tomorrow, with headline inflation projected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7% and core from 2.4% to 2.5%.",
        "timestamp": "03:51",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Markets have currently priced out a rate hike for this month, with Fed fund futures showing about an 80% chance of a hold.",
        "timestamp": "04:06",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There is still about an 85% chance of at least another 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year (December meeting).",
        "timestamp": "04:18",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "UK will release Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday, along with speeches from BOE members.",
        "timestamp": "04:48",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Critical support zone, 38.2% retracement off last year's low, objective low week close",
        "value": "1.3194",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Initial resistance, objective monthly open",
        "value": "1.3265",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Main zone of interest, objective May swing low",
        "value": "1.3297",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Main zone of interest, simple 23.6% retracement off August highs",
        "value": "1.3300",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Downside target, 2026 swing low and 2025 main August lows",
        "value": "1.3140",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Downside target, 2023 high week close",
        "value": "1.3092",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Subsequent resistance, 38.2% retracement",
        "value": "1.3370",
        "instrument": "British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD)",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "3.7% (consensus, up from 3.4%)",
        "metric": "Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline (YoY)",
        "period": "October (expected)",
        "source": "US Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.5% (consensus, up from 2.4%)",
        "metric": "Consumer Price Index (CPI) Core (YoY)",
        "period": "October (expected)",
        "source": "US Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      },
      {
        "value": "0.3% (consensus)",
        "metric": "Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline (MoM)",
        "period": "October (expected)",
        "source": "US Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      },
      {
        "value": "Expected to see a contraction",
        "metric": "Producer Price Index (PPI)",
        "period": "Thursday",
        "source": "US Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      },
      {
        "value": "~80% for a hold",
        "metric": "Target Rate Probabilities",
        "period": "28 Oct 2020 FOMC Meeting",
        "source": "FedMatch Tool (CME Group)"
      },
      {
        "value": "~85% chance for at least another 25bps hike",
        "metric": "Target Rate Probabilities",
        "period": "9 Dec 2020 FOMC Meeting",
        "source": "FedMatch Tool (CME Group)"
      },
      {
        "value": "-0.5% (consensus)",
        "metric": "Manufacturing Production (MoM)",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "UK Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      },
      {
        "value": "-0.5% (consensus)",
        "metric": "Industrial Production (MoM)",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "UK Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      },
      {
        "value": "-0.5% (consensus)",
        "metric": "Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (MoM)",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "UK Economic Calendar (FOREX.com)"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses the British Pound, US Treasury yields, and upcoming economic data relevant to currency markets."
  },
  "video_id": "62gqgFeTiJA",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62gqgFeTiJA",
  "transcript": "Hey traders, hey, it's Tuesday, October 13th, and I'm Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst with StoneX, here for a quick multi-timeframe look at the British Pound. So we're spending a fourth consecutive week at a critical support zone we've been talking about for months now. The weekly chart has the Sterling coming to 3194. It's a basic 38.2 retracement off of last year's low, but it's also the objective low week close and the low closes for the week. On a close basis, you can see that we're at the bottom end of a massive yearly range. Checked this resistance three times, checked that support three times, and we're looking to see for a reaction, an inflection off this key zone. Now, you're getting the dollar getting giving a little bit back. Treasury yields have come off a bit. Here's what the 30-year and the 10-year, both coming off resistance. There's the 30-year pulling back a bit off resistance. 10-year coming off a major level, multi-decade highs on both of those. And so it's giving a little bit of a relief here for the Sterling. We had a four consecutive weekly decline. Looks like we're trying to snap that this week. At the end of the day, we're sitting at major support. The benefit we have is that the monthly opening range is very clean. One other thing I want to show you before I move to the daily chart, momentum also failed to mark any substantial close below 40. You can see that that's held since the January of last year. We haven't seen weekly RSI drop below that 40 barrier, and we've continued to defend it even after a fourth consecutive weekly test here. Here's what it looks like on the daily chart. So, the monthly opening range is taking shape right above that 190, uh, that 3194 level. And you can see this is the same pitchfork that we presented a couple of weeks ago on that Sterling. Nice median line break late last month. We saw that hold right along the 25% parallel, and the median line has been offering resistance for the last three attempts. You have a contractionary range within the monthly range taking shape right above key support. Initial resistance comes in right at the objective monthly open. That comes in at 3265. We tagged it yesterday, converges on the median line, would necessitate a break above that. But the main zone of interest is going to be that 3297 into 33. You're talking about the objective May swing low and a simple 236 retracement off the highs that we made in August. Um, that's going to be key resistance. A breach above that would be needed to really shift the near-term focus to the upside. Key support well defined at 3194. Here's what it looks like on the four-hour chart. You can see that we've been in this consolidation range ever since the start of the month. This was the late September high, the early October low. You have a series of lower highs, a series of higher lows. Again, you would need to break above that objective monthly open to suggest that there's a larger recovery underway. A break above 3297, 33 would validate a breakout of the monthly opening range. Subsequent resistance would be right up at that 38.2 retracement near 3370. On the downside, if we were to break below that critical level, a daily close, uh, ideally a weekly close, would really mount resumption of the broader downtrend. You'd be looking for the 2026 swing low and the 2025 main August lows, that's 3140 on the downside, followed by the 2023 high week close, and that comes in at 3092. So the levels are well defined on both sides of the trade. We're looking for a break of this objective monthly opening range. The longer it holds, the better the break. Now you have some major event risk on tap tomorrow. The Consumer Price Index out of the United States is expected to uptick both on the headline and the core read. Headlines expected to drift higher from 3.4 to 3.7%. Core from 2.4 to 2.5%. As it stands, markets have still priced out the potential for a rate hike this month. Fed fund futures are right about 80% that we'll see a hold with the December read still holding right about that 85% chance that we'll get at least another 25 basis points before the end of the year. From the Sterling side of things, oh, by the way, we also do get PPI figures on Thursday and retail sales, so we get a picture on the producer side. That's actually expected to see a little bit of a contraction. Remember, core PCE did come in softer, so we did get a couple of batch of softer than expected inflation reads. Uh, both of these inflation reads this week have the potential to shift market expectations for the Fed heading into next month. From the Sterling side of things, we do have a host of BOE speakers on tap and manufacturing and industrial production data on Thursday right after those uh CPI numbers in the United States, but that's the risk from the Sterling side of things. We'll try to keep you updated as always on MB4X. Till then, best of luck trading. We'll see you tomorrow. Cheers.",
  "description": "British pound support at the bottom of its yearly range has held for a fourth straight week as easing Treasury yields give sterling some relief.\n\nMichael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through GBP/USD on the weekly, daily and four-hour charts.\n\nWeekly RSI has held above 40 since January of last year, through four weekly tests of support. The monthly opening range on GBP/USD is contracting, with lower highs and higher lows defining both sides of the trade. With U.S. Treasury yields pulling back from multi-decade highs, U.S. CPI and PPI data now have the potential to shift Federal Reserve rate expectations.\n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_michael_boutros&utm_content=share\n\n00:00 - Pound Tests Its Yearly Floor\n00:49 - Treasury Yields Give Pound Air\n01:07 - Weekly RSI Defends the 40 Line\n01:29 - Monthly Opening Range Coils\n02:42 - Lower Highs Meet Higher Lows\n03:56 - U.S. CPI Tests Fed Rate Odds\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#StoneX #MichaelBoutros #GBPUSD #Forex\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
  "match_reason": "No keyword filter configured",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T12:46:04Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/62gqgFeTiJA/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-13",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
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}