GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4124
Reporting Date: 2026-10-13T12:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 13, 2026 at 12:25 PM
- Completed At
- October 13, 2026 at 12:25 PM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.1481
},
"daily_series": [
{
"cdd_gfs": 8.05,
"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 10.2042,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 73.05,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 75.2042
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 3.2167,
"cdd_ecmwf": 1.9208,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 61.7833,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 66.9208
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 6.3458,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 5.2458,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 58.6542,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.7542
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 11.4667,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 9.7208,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.5333,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.2792
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 16.1417,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 16.9167,
"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 48.8583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 48.0833
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 9.9833,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 13.3833,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 55.0167,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.6167
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.7917,
"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 58.2708,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 56.2083
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 7.0917,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.9417,
"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 57.9083,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 56.0583
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-21",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 61.5208,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.6417
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 1.0292,
"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 66.0292,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.5792
},
{
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"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-23",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 61.7125
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-24",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 57.2458
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-25",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 50.2875
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 3.6083,
"valid_date": "2026-10-26",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 51.9875,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 61.3917
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 9.5208,
"valid_date": "2026-10-27",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 50.0583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.4792
}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 14.9375,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 107.2169,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 12.125,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 112.6624
},
{
"id": "nyc",
"lat": 40.71,
"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 4.5056
},
"daily_series": [
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.95
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 18.1375,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 46.8625
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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},
{
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"label": "South (Atlanta)",
"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 70.4625,
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 72.6125,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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Feed Information
Feed Type
GfsEcmwfUsDemandHubForecastFeed