GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4116
Reporting Date: 2026-10-13T06:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 13, 2026 at 06:25 AM
- Completed At
- October 13, 2026 at 06:25 AM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.7984
},
"daily_series": [
{
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"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 10.2,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 73.0833,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 75.2
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 2.5417,
"cdd_ecmwf": 1.1125,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 62.4583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 66.1125
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 6.4292,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 6.5917,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 58.5708,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 58.4083
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 11.8833,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 10.2208,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.1167,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 54.7792
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 15.775,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 16.8125,
"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 49.225,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 48.1875
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 11.0917,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 13.2708,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.9083,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.7292
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 8.8125,
"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 56.1875
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 8.275,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 10.4792,
"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 56.725,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 54.5208
},
{
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"hdd_gfs": 0.925,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 9.1,
"valid_date": "2026-10-21",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 64.075,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 55.9
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 2.2958,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 57.1542
},
{
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"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-23",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 67.625,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 60.6458
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-24",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 56.8583,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 62.7667
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-25",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 53.0292
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-26",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 53.0333,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 45.0417
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 23.3267,
"valid_date": "2026-10-27",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 52.6708,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 41.6733
}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 13.0041,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 110.1169,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 11.3125,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 144.9766
},
{
"id": "nyc",
"lat": 40.71,
"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 4.3934
},
"daily_series": [
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 51.6667
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 17.4083,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 47.4625
},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
{
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"lon": -84.38,
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"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 74.2833,
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},
{
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 77.7,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
"demand_weight": 0.1,
"noaa_region_hint": "east",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 83.304,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 11.4041,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 30.2458,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 38.1442
}
],
"run_deltas": {
"prior_fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-13T00:25:01Z",
"prior_reporting_date": "2026-10-13T00:00:00Z",
"delta_convergence_score": -0.0201,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 3.8442,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": -11.1614,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": -1.2814,
"delta_weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 0.1308,
"delta_weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 0.319
},
"source_url": "https://customer-api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast",
"fetched_at_utc": "2026-10-13T06:25:12Z",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z",
"schema_version": "1",
"report_decision": {
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"reason": "off_cycle",
"report": "on_change",
"embeddings": false,
"graph_ingest": "with_report",
"generate_report": false
},
"temperature_unit": "°F",
"convergence_score": 0.241042,
"degree_day_base_f": 65.0,
"forecast_init_utc": "2026-10-13T00:00Z",
"weighted_cumulative_cdd_gfs": 43.1831,
"weighted_cumulative_hdd_gfs": 79.5309,
"location_catalog_fingerprint": "59f98a47f7b1bf8e9d0d8da813939ec433b680e19ff804ae18b5bb4c3f183bc8",
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"weighted_cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 114.1323,
"weighted_mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.1487
}
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GfsEcmwfUsDemandHubForecastFeed