Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 12, 2026 at 07:17 PM

Completed At

October 12, 2026 at 07:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Close 10/12 Corn Bounces on WASDE Disbelief? Harvest Pressures Beans: Cattle Consolidate

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Close 10/12 Corn Bounces on WASDE Disbelief? Harvest Pressures Beans: Cattle Consolidate",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "USDA may adjust corn yield numbers down in the November or later reports.",
      "Continued geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East could further disrupt grain and energy markets.",
      "Packers' continued control over the cattle market could lead to lower prices despite technical breakouts."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Wheat",
      "Cattle",
      "Hogs",
      "Energy",
      "Geopolitics",
      "WASDE Report",
      "NASS Report",
      "Market Analysis"
    ],
    "summary": "The corn market saw a technical bounce after Friday's losses, with skepticism surrounding the USDA's higher yield estimates, particularly for Nebraska. Soybean prices are under harvest pressure, though meal and oil products are holding up. Wheat remains weak due to ongoing Black Sea conflict, while the cattle market is consolidating after a chart breakout. Energy markets are influenced by geopolitical tensions, with diesel and crude oil prices rising despite political efforts to lower them.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Darren Fry",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "analyst from Water Street Solutions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "host from Farm Journal"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market discussion, yields, prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "Livestock futures",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "mixed performance on Monday"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "higher on Monday, beaten up"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "mostly lower on Monday, chart breakout on Friday"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "historic drought, high corn prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "source of corn, Black Sea conflict"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "source of corn"
      },
      {
        "name": "Nebraska",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "significant corn yield increase in WASDE report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Plain States",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "source of corn production increase"
      },
      {
        "name": "South Dakota",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn yield increase"
      },
      {
        "name": "Texas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn yield increase"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kansas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn yield increase"
      },
      {
        "name": "North Dakota",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn yield increase"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "down today due to harvest pressure"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybean meal",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "holding up well, upside target"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybean oil",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "holding up well"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "market is 'sick', Black Sea issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "war intensifying, impacting wheat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Middle East",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "geopolitical tensions affecting energy"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iran",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "involved in Middle East conflict"
      },
      {
        "name": "United States",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "involved in Middle East conflict"
      },
      {
        "name": "Houthis",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "involved in Middle East conflict"
      },
      {
        "name": "Saudi Arabia",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "involved in Middle East conflict"
      },
      {
        "name": "President",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "US President, trying to lower diesel prices"
      },
      {
        "name": "President Putin",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Russian President, escalating conflict"
      },
      {
        "name": "Crude oil",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "up today"
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "up today, political maneuvering"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cotton",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "numbers are questioned"
      },
      {
        "name": "Packers",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "have control in cattle market"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The corn market saw a bounce today, which could be technical or due to market disbelief in the higher yield numbers from the WASDE report.",
        "timestamp": "00:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Europe has experienced a historic drought, leading to corn prices over $8 a bushel, making US corn at $4.80 look cheap and potentially driving demand.",
        "timestamp": "01:03",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There is skepticism among producers regarding the 2.7 bushel per acre increase in corn yield in the WASDE report, especially the 11 bushel per acre increase in Nebraska, given its 46% good-to-excellent rating.",
        "timestamp": "01:30",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A significant portion of the corn production increase came from the Plain States, with Nebraska's ear counts up 1700 ears per acre from September, possibly due to a shift towards more irrigated plots in the NASS sampling.",
        "timestamp": "01:55",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market may be stuck with the current corn yield estimate (around 179-182) until the March stocks report, as the December report may not have enough data for significant adjustments.",
        "timestamp": "04:26",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Current corn prices at $4.80 are favorable for end-users, supporting feeding margins for livestock (especially beef) and ethanol production.",
        "timestamp": "05:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Funds likely liquidated 50,000-60,000 long positions in corn on Friday alone.",
        "timestamp": "05:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean meal is holding up very well technically, with an upside target of $400.",
        "timestamp": "06:54",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The wheat market is 'sick' due to the intensifying war in the Black Sea, and US wheat exports are not competitive.",
        "timestamp": "07:14",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran, Houthis, Saudi Arabia) and the ongoing war in Ukraine are likely to continue, keeping energy prices elevated.",
        "timestamp": "07:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The October WASDE report showed increased production across all crops, which felt like a broad effort to lower food inflation.",
        "timestamp": "09:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Political maneuvering by the President to lower diesel prices before mid-term elections, such as buying diesel from Russia, are seen as short-term 'band-aids' that won't fix long-term energy issues.",
        "timestamp": "09:36",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The cattle market's chart breakout on Friday was likely due to the significant drop in corn prices, improving feeding margins.",
        "timestamp": "11:18",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Packers still maintain significant control in the cattle market, suggesting they desire lower prices.",
        "timestamp": "11:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "current price",
        "value": "$8 a bushel",
        "instrument": "European Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "current price",
        "value": "$4.80 a bushel",
        "instrument": "US Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "upside target",
        "value": "$400",
        "instrument": "Soybean meal",
        "level_type": "target"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "2.7 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "corn yield increase",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "WASDE report"
      },
      {
        "value": "11 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska corn yield increase",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "WASDE report"
      },
      {
        "value": "46%",
        "metric": "Nebraska corn good-to-excellent rating",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "1700 ears per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska corn ear counts increase",
        "period": "September to October",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "177 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska corn yield",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "188 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska corn yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "194 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska corn yield",
        "period": "last year",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "151 bushels per acre (up 6 bushels)",
        "metric": "South Dakota corn yield",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 8 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Texas corn yield",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 9 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Kansas corn yield",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 2 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "North Dakota corn yield",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "value": "200,000 bales",
        "metric": "cotton production increase",
        "source": "NASS"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a substantive discussion on corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and energy markets, including specific data points and market analysis."
  },
  "video_id": "VBIBHPK4VcY",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBIBHPK4VcY",
  "transcript": "Markets Now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins, and then there are wins that you get with Brevant Seeds. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. Welcome to Markets Now. I'm Rochelle Rook with Darren Fry of Water Street Solutions, and we ended mixed in the grain trade on Monday with the livestock futures. Well, we were higher in hogs, mostly lower in the cattle, except for some of the deferred live cattle futures contracts. Okay, Darren, let's start off talking about the corn market. Of course, we had those 20, 21 cent losses on Friday, trying to work in this shock of the 2.7 bushel per acre increase in yield. Yes. Little bounce today. Was that technical or does the market not believe the higher yield? That's a great question. It could be a little bit of both. You know, I think most people would have thought we were going to trade and test Friday's low, but we didn't do that. Um, we, we maybe tried in the overnight, but we bounced pretty good and we closed decent. Uh, we'll see, but I know Europe has had a historic drought and I know prices over there are over $8 a bushel now. And you know, ours at $4.80 looks pretty cheap. Maybe there's a balance here, an equilibrium where other countries, especially Europe, the needs corn, either from Ukraine, us or Brazil, uh, is going to be bidden for it and maybe there is some good demand down at these levels. Okay, let's talk about the report and hindsight. We still have hangover from that and some producers that are skeptical, especially when you saw Nebraska go up 11 bushels per acre on corn yield and they only have like a 46% good to excellent rating. There is some skepticism. Talk about that's where most of the increase in production came from, didn't it? Yeah, it was about half of the total increase. It represented 1.2 bushel over the national average, but obviously there was another 1.5 from other places. But, uh, a lot of it came from the plain states. Uh, very little that came from anywhere else. Uh, I don't know how, uh, we had those type of moves when you have a 46% good to excellent Nebraska, as you said. And so we'll have to see if they adjust this back down in November, if this is the number that we have to live with. But, uh, yes, there's a lot of questions. Ear counts went up 1700 ears, uh, per acre in Nebraska. That seems like a big change from September. I know they used more irrigated plots this time than non-irrigated plots. I don't know why they switched that from September to October other than they were trying to correct a mistake. But, uh, it seems a little bit sketchy when you have a lot of non-irrigated fields in Nebraska yielding under 110 bushel to the acre. And we know last year they were pretty much record yields. So, you just wonder how they're going to come up with a yield even anywhere close to 188 for Nebraska. That's true. And when you talk about the irrigated versus non-irrigated, uh, it's about a 60/40 split in that state, irrigated and non. And there was a lot more irrigated samples versus dry land, weren't there? Well, compared to the September report, I think it was a pretty even split for how the state is, uh, divided up. But I think that in the September report, they had 90% non-irrigated and 10% irrigated. So that's why they say the September was so low at 177. Now it's improved to where it needs to be at 188. I still question that, but I understand how they flipped it from September to October. Uh, it wasn't just Nebraska though. I mean, South Dakota was up six bushels per acre at 151. I think we can argue with that. Texas was up eight, Kansas up nine, North Dakota up two. It all came from the Western plains. It did. And, and you know, the yields were exceptionally good in all those places a year ago. And so that makes me wonder how accurate that can be because, hey, we had a much different year this year. And so you would think that just because of how they blew it out of the water last year, you'd be lower than last year. But this year's weather makes it much lower than last year. And to see some of these yields come in pretty close to last year, like Nebraska, for example, 188 versus 194. That's awful close to the same crop. And you had an excellent year versus not such an excellent year. So, a lot of questions and a lot of answers from NASS will have to be, uh, dealt with here over the next month or two. And when do we see any adjustments if ever? Well, that's a great question. You know, we could be stuck with this yield somewhere between 179, 182 all the way through. And then it comes down the stocks report. It comes down to, was the crop really that big? Because it'll show up in the stocks reports, but that'll probably be March before we'd see that. I don't think we have enough data in the December one. So, we could be living with this type of yield, this type of carry out for some time. Oh, man, this feels like 2019 when we argued about the 20 million prevent plant acres that never showed up until way, way after, right? Yes. Yeah, and then there was big adjustments though, you know, as we got further in in January. Yeah, for sure. So, at this price though, we held the 200 day moving average. Technically that was good, but this is a good spot for end users, uh, to come in here and buy, right? It sure is. Yeah, you know, and I, I'm not even sure on a scale down basis. I mean, we're back to $4.80 corn and, and you know, you look at your feeding margins and ethanol margins and there, there was profitability there to begin with. So, uh, especially on the livestock beef side of things, maybe not so much in the swine side because the hogs have been beat up. But, uh, certainly ethanol and beef will support, uh, these feeding margins a lot better with corn prices at $4.80. How much have the funds liquidated their long position in the corn now? I think they probably got rid of 50, 60,000 on Friday alone. I don't know how much they did coming in the report, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that number, uh, really, uh, carved back to a reasonable level here when we get into Tuesday and find out what it is on Friday this next week. Or this current week. Okay, so the cash market's going to have to do the work here, I guess, huh? I think that's, that's been the mantra for the last several years. Oh, shoot. Okay, soybeans, down today. Um, we traded like a champ on Friday. Obviously, a little pressure today just because harvest is so widespread. It might be, you know, a strange day because meal and bean oil were up. The products were up and beans are down. And then it always seems like an opportunity, you know, when you have products up and the beans that you're making them out of are down. And so for some type of spreading action. But, uh, yeah, maybe it's just harvest pressure. But beans acted great on Friday, just so-so today. They didn't act bad, but you know, they were down a few cents. Not a big deal. But we'll see what they do the rest of the week. Uh, the meal market is holding up really well here. Do you think that when we start getting a lot more beans infused into the processing system that the meal market is going to start to correct or not? Well, it will, but I think that's going to take a while. I still have an upside target of 400 bucks on meal. I think after that, then you could see a nice correction. And technically we are holding very well, aren't we? Yeah, we are. We're pushing out the top. We're 366, 367. Looks like we got an open runway up to 400 in my opinion. Wheat market mixed just because we don't have any new news. Yeah, the wheat market just sick. It's like a dog with fleas laying down and I can't understand really why. But, uh, Black Sea continues to see this war intensifying every weekend. It's the same MO and and, uh, you think we're going to have some type of a ceasefire for the energy side. And then crude's up three bucks when you come in on Monday morning and and there's no ceasefire. They're blowing up more things. And so, I just don't see how grain corridor is going to open. I don't see how the war is going to end. I don't see how we're going to get back to anything reasonable even in the Middle East with Iran and the United States, Houthis and Saudi Arabia. And so, war is going to continue and and that's kind of friendly our markets, to be honest. That's not something you hope for. But the end result is, you probably can't be bearish corn, wheat, soybeans or any of these things if war continues. When do we start seeing some wheat exports come to the US because of it though? I don't know, you know, we're not competitive and and we really don't want to see a lot of exports. Maybe white wheat, yes, but the other wheat classes, no. And so we'll have to continue to price our way out so we don't export any. Uh, but right now, we're just trying to find that equilibrium where we, you know, can find a bottom and start to rally again. We just haven't found that yet. Cotton market up just a little bit here today, uh, despite the fact that we had an increase in production by what, 200,000 bales. Yes. What held the market together then? Was it the hurricane damage and fear of that or what? I don't think the hurricane had much to say, uh, to the cotton market. But, you know, it, it landed a little farther east and it was a little weaker than what was originally expected. And and what was interesting, Michelle, is if you look at all the crops, every single one of them, we had more production. So, it was like across the board. It was almost like, hey, we got to get food inflation down. Let's raise everything up. And I'm not saying that's what happened, but boy, it sure felt like that when you looked at the figures on Friday. Yeah, there was a lot of people talking about that after the report that this scream cheap food policy for sure. Um, just quickly on the energy, you know, the President has been throwing everything he can at diesel prices to try to get them down before the midterm elections. And the latest one is to buy oil from or diesel from Russia. All political maneuvering in your opinion? Yeah, it really is. You know, we sanctioned them, but now we're going to have them save us and sell us some fuel. And I think the fuel and the amount that he was talking about is less than one day use. So, uh, these things aren't going to fix anything long-term. They're little band-aids. I think they, uh, trying to get goodwill, you know, like I'm trying to do something from the political side. Midterms are coming up. But I don't see that war ending. I don't see those threats or those ceasefires on energy plants, uh, working. I think President Zelensky and President Putin are going to keep escalating this. And we keep seeing that rhetoric come out of the President's mouth. And then, of course, their action is to bomb more things. So, I don't think they're going to listen. No, and it really hasn't had much of an effect on lowering prices. To your point, crude oil was up today. So, and diesel, I think too. And the fuel. Uh, let's finally end with the cattle market because we had a chart breakout on Friday. We had a higher weekly closes. Just a little profit taking today, you think? Yeah, cattle and feeder cattle could go a little higher, but I'm looking for this wave or this move higher to terminate somewhere in this area. Maybe a buck or two higher in cattle, maybe a few bucks higher in feeder cattle. But, you know, the big move we had on the board, we haven't seen the cash really follow that. We had some disappointments last week. We'll see what develops this week in cash. But, uh, the packers still got a lot of control and I just think this is a correction to sell in my opinion. Okay. I think the breakout on Friday was in part due to the big drop in the corn market though, don't you? Oh, no question about it. I mean, I think feeders instead of being up seven, they would have been up, you know, three or four if it hadn't been corn down 20. Yeah, and cash trade mostly steady. What do you think it'll be this week? I think it could be maybe steady to a little bit higher, but not much. I still think the packers want this thing bit lower. Yeah, and they kind of have the leverage, unfortunately. All right, thanks so much, Darren. Darren Fry with Water Street Solutions and Markets Now. You can just picture it. The anticipation before the big moment. The band playing, the adrenaline flowing, the confidence that you're about to hit the field and simply dominate. Now you know what it feels like to plant a field of Brevant Seeds. Because when you choose Brevant Seeds, you're not looking for a simple win. You're looking to turn heads and make a name for yourself. This is your turf. And when you get out there, it's sheer domination. Get started at brevant.com/domination. Win, win, win.",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-12T19:13:25Z",
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  "reporting_date": "2026-10-12",
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