Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 12, 2026 at 05:17 PM

Completed At

October 12, 2026 at 05:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Diesel Supply Tightens Despite Recovering Crude Flows

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Diesel Supply Tightens Despite Recovering Crude Flows",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "New attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and on ships in the Persian Gulf.",
      "A real drop in Hormuz traffic.",
      "An Iran deal (JCPOA) could bring a fast correction and even a surplus in early 2027, though prices wouldn't go back to pre-war levels due to inventory rebuild needs.",
      "Logistical disruptions in the Center-West, North, and Northeast of Brazil during soybean planting."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Crude Oil",
      "Oil Products",
      "Brent Crude",
      "Saudi Arabia",
      "Iraq",
      "US Shale",
      "Oil Exports",
      "Oil Imports",
      "China",
      "India",
      "Refinery Capacity",
      "Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)",
      "Geopolitical Tensions",
      "Diesel",
      "Gasoline",
      "Middle Distillates",
      "Russia",
      "Europe",
      "Latin America",
      "Brazil",
      "Energy Infrastructure",
      "Oil Prices"
    ],
    "summary": "Crude oil and oil product markets are under intense pressure in Q4 due to geopolitical tensions disrupting supply and refinery constraints. While crude supply has shown some flexibility from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and US shale, and demand destruction is evident in Asia, the market remains vulnerable to further disruptions. The refining sector faces a global crisis with significant capacity offline, particularly impacting middle distillates like diesel, leading to tight supply and high margins, especially as the Northern Hemisphere enters winter.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Crude oil",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Crude oil and oil products are entering the fourth quarter under intense pressure."
      },
      {
        "name": "Oil products",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Crude oil and oil products are entering the fourth quarter under intense pressure."
      },
      {
        "name": "Brent",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Brent rose from around 72 US dollars per barrel at the end of June to a high of 108 dollars in September."
      },
      {
        "name": "Saudi Arabia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Saudi Arabia is the best example."
      },
      {
        "name": "East-West pipeline",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "When the East-West pipeline was hit by a drone attack in September."
      },
      {
        "name": "Port of Yanbu",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "The Port of Yanbu basically stopped loading."
      },
      {
        "name": "Hormuz",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "The country started pushing more product through Hormuz."
      },
      {
        "name": "Iraq",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Iraq did something similar, raising exports above 3 million barrels a day."
      },
      {
        "name": "Persian Gulf",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "We have seen new attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and on ships in the Persian Gulf."
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "The adjustment came mainly from Asia."
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "China imported 9 million barrels a day in August."
      },
      {
        "name": "India",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "India's import also fell more than 11% month-on-month."
      },
      {
        "name": "US",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "In the US, we saw that shale producers took advantage of better margins."
      },
      {
        "name": "G7",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "The new G7 emergency stocks release has eased supply concerns."
      },
      {
        "name": "International Energy Agency (IEA)",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Part of that may overlap with volumes already committed under the International Energy Agency program."
      },
      {
        "name": "Iran",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovered to more than 80% of pre-war levels."
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "The diesel market is feeling the most."
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Russia is by far the biggest piece."
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Ukrainian attacks have taken more than half of the country's processing capacity offline."
      },
      {
        "name": "Moscow",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "That's why Moscow banned diesel exports actually."
      },
      {
        "name": "Kuwait",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have had unplanned shutdowns."
      },
      {
        "name": "Houthi attacks",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "After Iranian and Houthi attacks in the last months."
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Brazil, as you mentioned, is a good example."
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybean planting",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Right during the soybean planting."
      },
      {
        "name": "Gasoline",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Gasoline margins are also high by historical standards."
      },
      {
        "name": "Ethanol",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Higher ethanol blending at the pump weighs on demand."
      },
      {
        "name": "Northern Hemisphere",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "As the Northern Hemisphere gets ready for winter."
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Washington still rejects the Iran deal tools and immediate sanctions relief."
      },
      {
        "name": "Trump",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Trump himself has suggested that a resolution may only come after the midterms in November."
      },
      {
        "name": "White House",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "The White House denied it was preparing a 90-day ban."
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Crude oil and oil products are entering Q4 under intense pressure due to geopolitical tensions and refinery constraints.",
        "timestamp": "00:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brent crude prices rose from $72/barrel in late June to $108/barrel in September.",
        "timestamp": "00:36",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Saudi Arabia increased product flow through Hormuz to 3 million bpd in the second half of September, up from 0.7 million bpd in August, and offered cargo via ship-to-ship transfers.",
        "timestamp": "01:07",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Iraq also increased exports above 3 million bpd and offered aggressive discounts.",
        "timestamp": "01:52",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Overall Gulf oil flows (excluding Iran) recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels in September.",
        "timestamp": "02:00",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US shale producers took advantage of better margins, pushing output to record levels near 14 million bpd.",
        "timestamp": "02:09",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Demand destruction is evident in Asia, with China's August imports 23% below last year and India's imports falling over 11% month-on-month.",
        "timestamp": "02:50",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The recovery in Middle Eastern exports and G7 emergency stock releases have eased supply concerns, leading to lower oil prices this week.",
        "timestamp": "02:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The risk of new attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and ships in the Persian Gulf persists, preventing the full pricing out of the risk premium.",
        "timestamp": "02:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US crude output is near 14 million bpd, and refineries were running at 98% capacity in late August (highest since 2018), but commercial crude stocks are low (~420 million barrels in mid-September).",
        "timestamp": "03:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at its lowest level since 1982, with roughly 130 million barrels released since the conflict started, leaving a thinner cushion for future disruptions.",
        "timestamp": "04:18",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The global balance is expected to remain in deficit through Q4, although smaller than at its peak.",
        "timestamp": "05:30",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Aramco cut its official selling prices to Asia for November to a six-year low, indicating a desire to regain market share.",
        "timestamp": "05:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Around 14% of global refining capacity was offline in September, well above the normal 7% for this time of year, with unplanned outages accounting for about 50% of the total.",
        "timestamp": "07:29",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukrainian attacks have taken more than half of Russia's processing capacity offline, leading Moscow to ban diesel exports until at least the end of October, with an extension to early 2027 already approved.",
        "timestamp": "07:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have experienced unplanned refinery shutdowns due to Iranian and Houthi attacks.",
        "timestamp": "08:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "China suspended product exports this month to rebuild its own stocks, contributing to global supply tightness.",
        "timestamp": "08:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Regions hardest hit (Russia and the Gulf) primarily export middle distillates, causing the diesel market to feel the most impact.",
        "timestamp": "08:54",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US diesel inventories were close to 108 million barrels in September, significantly below the five-year average of 120 million barrels, and are expected to remain below this minimum for much of 2027.",
        "timestamp": "09:47",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, primarily to Europe and Latin America, making a regional problem a global one with few alternatives.",
        "timestamp": "10:26",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brazil's diesel imports fell 11% from January to August, with Russian purchases dropping to zero, while domestic production rose 7% to guarantee supply.",
        "timestamp": "10:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Gasoline margins, while still high, have come down seasonally as the US and Europe's driving season ends and winter gasoline specifications are adopted.",
        "timestamp": "11:47",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The refining crisis disproportionately affects middle distillates (diesel) because the offline plants in Russia and the Middle East primarily export these products, while refiners are still tilting yields towards distillates.",
        "timestamp": "12:23",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Price at the end of June",
        "value": "72 US dollars per barrel",
        "instrument": "Brent crude",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "High in September",
        "value": "108 US dollars",
        "instrument": "Brent crude",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "First time ever",
        "value": "Above $100 a barrel",
        "instrument": "Heating oil crack spread over Brent",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Peak at the end of August",
        "value": "Around $57 a barrel",
        "instrument": "Gasoline margins",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current operating level",
        "value": "Around $35 per barrel",
        "instrument": "Gasoline margins",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "Around 3 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Product flow through Hormuz",
        "period": "Second half of September",
        "source": "Saudi Arabia"
      },
      {
        "value": "0.7 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Product flow through Hormuz",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "Saudi Arabia"
      },
      {
        "value": "Surpassed 5 million barrels",
        "metric": "East-West pipeline flows",
        "source": "Saudi Government"
      },
      {
        "value": "Above 3 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Exports",
        "source": "Iraq"
      },
      {
        "value": "More than 80% of pre-war levels",
        "metric": "Gulf oil flows (excluding Iran)",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "Middle East"
      },
      {
        "value": "Close to 14 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Shale oil output",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "9 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Oil imports",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around 23% below a year earlier",
        "metric": "Oil imports",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "Fell more than 11% month-on-month",
        "metric": "Oil imports",
        "source": "India"
      },
      {
        "value": "Dropped 6.3%",
        "metric": "Domestic oil consumption",
        "source": "India"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around 98% of total capacity",
        "metric": "Refinery utilization",
        "period": "End of August",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around 420 million barrels",
        "metric": "Commercial crude stocks",
        "period": "Mid-September",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Lowest level since 1982",
        "metric": "Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Roughly 130 million barrels",
        "metric": "SPR release",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Another 50 million barrels of crude oil",
        "metric": "Emergency stock release",
        "source": "G7"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around 14%",
        "metric": "Refining capacity offline",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "Global"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around 50% of total offline capacity",
        "metric": "Unplanned refining outages",
        "source": "Global"
      },
      {
        "value": "More than half",
        "metric": "Processing capacity offline due to Ukrainian attacks",
        "source": "Russia"
      },
      {
        "value": "More than 3 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Refining capacity offline due to scheduled maintenance",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "Above $100 a barrel",
        "metric": "Heating oil crack spread over Brent",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Close to 108 million barrels",
        "metric": "Diesel inventories",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around 120 million barrels",
        "metric": "Diesel inventories (5-year average)",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Below the five-year minimum",
        "metric": "Diesel inventories outlook",
        "period": "Much of 2027",
        "source": "DOE"
      },
      {
        "value": "About 1.2 million barrels a day",
        "metric": "Net diesel exports",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Fell 11%",
        "metric": "Diesel imports",
        "period": "January to August",
        "source": "Brazil"
      },
      {
        "value": "Dropped to virtually zero",
        "metric": "Russian diesel purchases",
        "source": "Brazil"
      },
      {
        "value": "Rose 7%",
        "metric": "Domestic diesel production",
        "source": "Brazil"
      },
      {
        "value": "About 180% above the five-year average",
        "metric": "Gasoline margins (September average)",
        "source": "Global"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around $57 a barrel",
        "metric": "Gasoline margins (peak)",
        "period": "End of August",
        "source": "Global"
      },
      {
        "value": "Around $35 per barrel",
        "metric": "Gasoline margins (current)",
        "source": "Global"
      },
      {
        "value": "About 6% below the five-year average",
        "metric": "Gasoline stocks",
        "source": "US"
      }
    ]
  },
  "video_id": "jpGusauxKXM",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpGusauxKXM",
  "transcript": "Crude oil and oil products are entering the fourth quarter under intense pressure, with geopolitical tensions disrupting supply and refinery constraints pushing fuel markets even tighter. So, what do these forces mean for prices and availability in the months ahead? I'm Johanna Botta, and to help us understand the outlook, we're joined by Bruno Santos, analyst at StoneX Brazil. Bruno, great to see you as always. Thanks, Johanna, it's great to be back. So, I want to start with crude oil because Brent rose from around 72 US dollars per barrel at the end of June to a high of 108 dollars in September. So, we know full well the reasons why, but how have producers and consumers responded to the supply disruption? Uh, so, I would say the, the big story of the past few weeks is how much flexibility the market has found on the supply side. Saudi Arabia is the best example. Uh, when the East-West pipeline was hit by a drone attack in September and, uh, the Port of Yanbu basically stopped loading, uh, the country started pushing more product through Hormuz. Uh, around 3 million barrels a day on average, uh, in the second half of September, uh, compared with only 0.7 million, um, barrels per day in August. Uh, and also started offering cargo situation refiners, uh, through, uh, ship-to-ship transfers off of Yanbu. The pipeline is now running again, and according to Saudi government, um, flows, um, through it have surpassed 5 million barrels. Um, Iraq did something similar, uh, raising exports above 3 million barrels a day and, uh, offering as well pretty aggressive discounts. Overall, uh, Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovery to more than 80% of pre-war levels in September. And in the US, uh, we saw that shale producers took advantage of better margins, uh, so output is also at record levels, close to 14 million barrels a day. Uh, that recovery in Middle Eastern exports together with the new, uh, G7 emergency stocks release has eased supply concerns. Uh, and that's why we see now, uh, that, um, oil prices are trading, uh, lower, especially this week. Still, uh, the risk, uh, hasn't gone away. We have seen new attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and on ships in the Persian Gulf. And that keeps the market from pricing out the risk premium entirely. On the consumer side, uh, the adjustment came mainly from Asia. China imported 9 million barrels a day in August, uh, which still is around, uh, 23% below a year earlier. India's import also fell, uh, more than 11% month-on-month, and domestic consumption dropped 6.3%. So, we are seeing, uh, real demand destruction here, and that's been an important break on prices. The catch is that this demand doesn't disappear forever. At some point, uh, these countries will need to restock, and that becomes an upside risk, uh, further down the road. Can I ask you, with supply and demand where they are in the US right now, how much room is there to cope with another disruption? Uh, so, I think the US balance, um, sums up the whole quarter really well. Production and refining at heights, but inventories at lows. Crude output is close to 14 million barrels a day as I mentioned, and refineries was were running around at 98% of total capacity at the end of August. That's the highest, uh, value since 2018. Uh, because margins are exceptional, actually. At the same time, the US kept exporting a lot into a very undersupplied world. Uh, commercial crude stocks dropped to around 420 million barrels in mid-September. And the SPR, which are the emergency stocks, uh, is at its lowest level since 1982. Uh, after roughly 130 million barrels were released since the conflict started. So, the US is is still the the supplier of last resort, uh, but the cushion is a lot thinner. There is no spare refining capacity when you are already, uh, around 98% of its total capacity. So, and there's much, uh, less room to tap reserves. If we get another disruption, for example, say a new attack, uh, on the Saudi infrastructure, the US simply can't respond the same way it did earlier this year. Uh, the G7 agreed last week to release another 50 million barrels of crude oil, but part of that may overlap with volumes already committed under the International Energy Agency program. So, the real impact is probably limited at this time. Okay. So, then how do you expect crude oil prices to move through the rest of the year, and what could change that outlook? Uh, so, our base case that the global balance stays in deficit through the fourth quarter, uh, although smaller than at the peak, but it's still a deficit. Uh, on Saudi and Iraq flows, yes, uh, I expect them to stay relatively high. Uh, Yanbu is loading again, and Aramco just cut, uh, its official selling prices to Asia for November to a six-year low. Uh, which tells that they want to win back market share. The problem is the concentration of products. A big share of that supply now depends on Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz Strait. And attacks on tankers have actually picked up, with at least seven incidents reporting the beginning of October. So, the risk premium isn't going away, actually. Uh, as for an agreement on navigation rules in Hormuz, I would say it's possible, but less likely in the short term. Washington still rejects the Iran deal tools, uh, and immediate sanctions relief. The the two sides seem to agree on the stats, but not on the order. And Trump, uh, himself has suggested at that a resolution may only come after the midterms in November. What could change the picture? Uh, on the upside, uh, a hit on the two to Saudi infrastructure or a real drop in Hormuz traffic, for example. On the downside, a deal that re-emboldens Iran, uh, which could bring a fast correction and even a surplus in in early 2027. Even then, I wouldn't expect prices to go back to pre-war levels because inventories, uh, already needs to be rebuilt worldwide. Yeah, understood. Okay, um, let's move to oil products because in your report, you describe a global refining crisis, uh, with nearly 14% of refining capacity offline in September. So, where is the disruption most severe? Yeah, so, Johanna, this is where I think the real bottleneck, uh, is right now. Around 14% of global refining capacity was offline in September, as you mentioned, and this number is well above the roughly 7% we would normally see at this time of year. What makes this year different is the mix. Unplanned outages made up around 50% of the total. Russia is by far the biggest piece. Ukrainian attacks have taken more than half of the country's processing capacity offline in recent months. That's why Moscow banned diesel exports, actually, and these bans runs at least until the end of October, and an extension to early 2027 has already been approved. Honestly, I don't see Russia come back to the export market in a meaningful way anytime soon. In the Middle East, uh, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have had unplanned shutdowns, uh, after Iranian and Houthi attacks, uh, in the last months, and uncertainty continues to surround the stability of refinery productions over there. In Asia, it's more about a scheduled maintenance, uh, with China alone accounting for more than 3 million barrels a day of capacity offline. On top of that, China also suspended product exports this month until it rebuilds its own stocks. Uh, so, I see that the key point is that the regions, uh, hit hardest, which is Russia and the Gulf, uh, exports mostly middle distillates, and that's why, uh, the diesel market is feeling the most as its offer, uh, is going down, and the the perspectives is that this offer continues to go down as those attacks continue in these regions. But diesel margins have reached exceptional levels. How are US refinery output and low inventories affecting global supply, including in Brazil, where you're based? Yeah, so, US refiners are doing exactly what you would expect them to do with margins like this. They are running flat out and maximizing middle distillates. The heating oil crack spread over Brent went above $100 a barrel for the first time ever. Um, but exporting that much has drained domestic stocks. US diesel inventories were close to 108 million barrels in September, against a five-year average of around 120 million barrels in the same period. Uh, the DOE expects, actually, them to stay below the five-year minimum for much of 2027. And that's the backdrop, uh, for the export restriction debate. Uh, Trump said he supported suspending diesel exports, while the White House denied it was preparing a 90-day ban. And the focus now seems to be voluntary restraint and measures like expanding biodiesel sales. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, with net exports, uh, of about, uh, 1.2 million barrels a day, mostly to Europe and Latin America. Add to that a US restriction to the Russian ban, and a regional problem becomes a global one with very few alternatives. Brazil, as you mentioned, is a good example. Imports fell 11% from January to August, uh, with Russian purchases dropping to virtually zero, and the US and India only partly filled the gap. On the other hand, domestic diesel production rose 7% in order to guarantee full supply. We don't see a systematic, uh, shortage, but it's possible that we see logistical disruptions in the Center-West, North, and Northeast of Brazil, uh, right during the soybean planting. Uh, for Brazil, the issue is more about cost and physical availability, but for other countries and other regions, such as Europe and Asia, the availability of products is a big problem. Yeah. Um, gasoline margins are also high by historical standards, but they've come down as demand slows with the season. What explained the difference between gasoline and diesel? Yeah, so, uh, gasoline margins are still very high. The September average, for example, was about 180% above the five-year average. But they peaked at around $57 a barrel at the end of August, roughly half of what we saw in diesel, and now it operates around $35 per barrel. There are two main reasons for that. Uh, the first is seasonality. The driving season in the US and Europe is over. People are traveling less. The US switches to its winter gasoline spec, and higher ethanol blending at the pump weighs on demand. Uh, the second is the nature of the refining crisis itself. The plants that are offline in Russia and the Middle East, uh, mostly export middle distillates. So, the shock hits diesel much harder than light products, uh, such as gasoline and naphtha. Uh, and with diesel paying so much more, refiners are still tilting their yields toward distillates. Diesel, on the other hand, is heading into its strongest season, uh, as the Northern Hemisphere gets ready for winter. Heating demand adds to an already tight distillate market. Uh, one thing worth watching, though, if the US did restrict diesel exports, refiners could cut runs, and that would also reduce gasoline output at a time when US gasoline stocks are about 6% below the five-year average. So, gasoline margins should keep easing seasonally, but I would I wouldn't expect them back at normal levels anytime soon. Understood. Bruno, thank you as always for keeping us up to date. That was great. We appreciate your insight. And thank you to our viewers for watching. For more financial content, don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel. See you next time.",
  "description": "Diesel supply is tightening because refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East hit plants that mostly export middle distillates, not gasoline.\n\nBruno Santos, StoneX Brazil, Market Intelligence Analyst, explains why recovering crude flows have not eased the squeeze in refined fuels.\n\nAround 14% of global refining capacity was offline, double the usual seasonal level, and Russia has banned diesel exports. Heavy U.S. diesel exports have pushed U.S. inventories below their five-year average, leaving Brazil's diesel supply more reliant on domestic output.\n\nDownload the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/commodities-outlook/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=qr_code&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26\n\nDiscover Actionable Markets Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: \nhttps://shop.stonex.com/collections/energy?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26_sxtv_bruno_santos\n\n00:00 - Crude Eases, Fuel Stays Tight\n00:57 - Crude Supply Finds Flexibility\n03:26 - No Spare Room in U.S. Refining\n05:19 - Hormuz Risk Premium Holds Firm\n07:05 - Russia's Diesel Ban Bites\n09:12 - U.S. Diesel Exports Hit Stocks\n10:24 - Brazil Diesel Risk at Planting\n11:30 - Gasoline Cools as Diesel Heats\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#StoneX #BrunoSantos #Diesel #CrudeOil\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-12T17:01:38Z",
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  "reporting_date": "2026-10-12",
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