Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 12, 2026 at 03:17 PM

Completed At

October 12, 2026 at 03:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Early 10/12 Can Cattle Extend Last Week's Bullish Breakout? Corn Digests Bearish WASDE

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Early 10/12 Can Cattle Extend Last Week's Bullish Breakout? Corn Digests Bearish WASDE",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Fundamentals not aligning with technicals in cattle market.",
      "Premium structure in cattle market (South vs. North).",
      "Lack of demand for beef due to public perception, energy costs, and recession talk.",
      "Continued poor global demand for pork.",
      "Inaccurate USDA crop reporting methodology.",
      "Another big round of fund selling in hogs.",
      "Wide-open weather allowing rapid harvest, increasing supply pressure for grains."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Cattle",
      "Hogs",
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Livestock Markets",
      "Grain Markets",
      "Futures Trading",
      "Cash Markets",
      "Demand",
      "Supply",
      "USDA Reports",
      "WASDE Report",
      "Cattle on Feed Report",
      "Pork Cutout"
    ],
    "summary": "The video discusses mixed trading in grains and livestock, with a focus on cattle, hogs, and corn. For cattle, the speaker notes a technical breakout but expresses concern about underlying fundamentals, particularly regional supply imbalances and overall demand. The hog market is described as a 'train wreck' due to low cutout values and poor global demand. Corn is facing harvest pressure and a bearish WASDE report, though the speaker sees potential for stabilization and a rebound in the first quarter of the new year.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Host of Markets Now"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brad Kooima",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Analyst from Kooima Kooima Varley"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kooima Kooima Varley",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Brad Kooima's firm"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brevant Seeds",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Sponsor"
      },
      {
        "name": "Golden Harvest",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Sponsor"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Source of crop and livestock reports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Illinois",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Corn yield not raised by USDA"
      },
      {
        "name": "Nebraska",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Increased cattle on feed, corn yield raised"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iowa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Increased cattle on feed"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kansas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cattle trading, confidentiality for a couple of months"
      },
      {
        "name": "Texas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Cattle trading, confidentiality for a couple of months"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mexico",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Good global demand for pork"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "No pork demand for years"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Discussed market conditions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Discussed market conditions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Discussed market conditions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Discussed market conditions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Beef",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Discussed demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Pork",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Discussed demand and cutout values"
      },
      {
        "name": "Recession",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Impact on consumer demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Energy costs",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Impact on consumer demand"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Cattle market saw a sharp breakout on Friday, with live cattle futures above September highs and November feeders above the 100-day moving average.",
        "timestamp": "01:17",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "There was not a lot of follow-through in the cattle market on Monday morning.",
        "timestamp": "01:27",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The speaker is struggling with the contrast between technicals and fundamentals in the cattle market.",
        "timestamp": "02:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "A close above 227.50 in December cattle futures would bring some fund buying.",
        "timestamp": "02:29",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The premium structure in the cattle market shows the South at a big premium to the North, indicating the North is not very current with cattle.",
        "timestamp": "02:42",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Southern cash market traded at 226, which is basically steady for the last four weeks, while the North traded towards 220 late Friday, also steady.",
        "timestamp": "03:11",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Futures now have a premium to cash, meaning the cash market needs to prove itself.",
        "timestamp": "03:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There is a regional imbalance in supply, with more cattle on feed in Nebraska and Iowa compared to a year ago, while the South is tight due to the border being closed.",
        "timestamp": "04:35",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cattle are being bought in the North and exported to the South.",
        "timestamp": "04:54",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Friday push in cattle was partly due to a 20-cent drop in the corn market.",
        "timestamp": "05:10",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Demand for beef is not currently inspiring, with a pullback from the public due to energy costs, recession talk, and the perception of 'beef too high'.",
        "timestamp": "06:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Demand for beef typically improves closer to Christmas, but it's only mid-October.",
        "timestamp": "07:05",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "The first quarter of the year is expected to be very friendly for cattle due to tighter numbers, assuming current issues are cleaned up.",
        "timestamp": "07:24",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Fewer yearlings are available because some heifers are being retained and sent to pasture instead of feedlots.",
        "timestamp": "07:35",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The hog market is a 'train wreck', with a new contract closing down on Friday.",
        "timestamp": "07:59",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The pork cutout is at three-year lows, below $80.",
        "timestamp": "08:36",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Global demand for pork is poor, with no significant buying from China in years as their hog herd has recovered.",
        "timestamp": "09:04",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The USDA's crop reporting methodology needs to be fixed, as the recent report was 'erroneous'.",
        "timestamp": "09:59",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The WASDE report indicated 407 million more corn bushels from stocks and WASDE, raising the yield in every state except Illinois.",
        "timestamp": "10:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Nebraska's corn yield was raised by 11 bushels per acre, and South Dakota's by 6 bushels, leading to a prediction of the second biggest corn crop ever.",
        "timestamp": "10:18",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Farmers are reporting actual yields that are not better than a year ago, despite USDA's increases.",
        "timestamp": "10:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The corn market can stabilize between 4.60 and 4.70 on the front end if there isn't another big round of fund selling.",
        "timestamp": "11:28",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybeans are under harvest pressure due to wide-open weather, with everyone harvesting.",
        "timestamp": "11:53",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn is holding the 200-day moving average.",
        "timestamp": "12:04",
        "importance": "low"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Close above this level would bring fund buying",
        "value": "227.50",
        "instrument": "December Cattle Futures",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Steady for the last four weeks",
        "value": "226",
        "instrument": "Southern Cash Cattle",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Traded towards this late Friday, steady",
        "value": "220",
        "instrument": "Northern Cash Cattle",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Three-year lows",
        "value": "below 80",
        "instrument": "Pork Cutout",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Stabilization range for the front end of the market",
        "value": "4.60-4.70",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "pivot"
      },
      {
        "note": "Market back above this in Q1 2024",
        "value": "2.40",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "target"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "above highs",
        "metric": "Live Cattle Futures",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "above 100-day moving average",
        "metric": "November Feeder Futures",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "226",
        "metric": "Southern Cash Cattle",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "220",
        "metric": "Northern Cash Cattle",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "20 cent drop",
        "metric": "Corn Market",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "3-year lows (below $80)",
        "metric": "Pork Cutout",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "407 million more bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Stocks Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "407 million more bushels",
        "metric": "WASDE Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "raised by 11 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Nebraska Corn Yield",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased by 6 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "South Dakota Corn Yield",
        "source": "USDA"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses cattle, hogs, corn, and soybeans markets, including price movements, fundamental factors, and USDA reports."
  },
  "video_id": "omJLrgHuFZI",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omJLrgHuFZI",
  "transcript": "Markets Now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins, and then there are wins you get with Brevant Seeds. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. And by Golden Harvest. The next generation of seed technology is here, and we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. And welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Rook with Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varley. And we're seeing some mixed trade here to start off on a Monday in the grains. Uh, corn's trying to hold on to some gains, soybeans are in negative territory, and in the livestock, hogs up, cattle are lower. Brad, so good to see you. It's been a few weeks, um, and I've missed you. Yeah, well, I miss being on. It's great to see you, literally in person even today, which is fun. Right. We are right around the corner from each other. Um, I am on a shoot this afternoon in Northwestern Iowa, and so stopped by to do markets with Brad here at their office in Sioux Center, Iowa, at Kooima Kooima Varley. So thanks for hosting me for, first of all. Oh, anytime, of course. It's been a while. Yeah, you used to stop here more often when you were a little closer to us. I did. Let's do it again. So, let's talk about this cattle market because we had a nice sharp breakout on Friday. We got above the September highs in the live cattle futures. I think November feeders got above 100-day moving average. And, I don't know, not a lot of follow-through this morning, but talk about, do you think this thing is going to hold? Is this breakout going to hold or not? Yeah, thanks for having me on. Um, the, you know, sometimes, and I'm guilty of it too, I think, and an analyst comes on your show and we pontificate about this and that, right? And, uh, look like I'm, you know, you pretend like I know what I'm doing. Um, some days I'm better than others. And I got to be, I'm just, I'm being very honest here. The market surprised me, uh, as to the level of strength it had. I love it. I'm a producer. I own cattle. Um, but what I'm struggling with, I think, Michelle, is I'm old school enough to think that the fundamentals do matter at some point. Um, I, I, and, and, and right now they're, they're, they seem to be in a real direct, uh, contrast to what the, what the technicals are showing us. Um, there is a technical number that I am drawing the line in the sand here for me. Uh, close above 227.50 in the December cattle, I think, will, will bring some fund buying. And I do know enough, even though I'm old, uh, to not want to stand in the way of funds. Um, so, uh, fundamentally what I, what I'm a little worried about is the premium structure in the market. The fact that the South is big premium to the North would tell you the North's not very current. We've got some cattle. Uh, it feels to me like, while I'm not necessarily adamantly bearish, I just feel like we got to maybe set here for a little while, chop wood, whatever the analogy you like to use. Um, and maybe clean up a few of these, uh, you know, these, uh, the long, the long-fed, uh, calf crop. And there's some big cattle up here in the North. So, I thought the cash market actually ended up being a little bit disappointing. The South traded at 226, while it was very light trade, that's basically steady for the last four weeks. Um, and the North traded finally towards 220, uh, to a packer, uh, to one of the majors anyway, late Friday, which was basically steady too. So, futures got a bit of a premium to them now, so now we better prove ourselves the cash. And as far as the, the Northern cash, the reason that we're not seeing an advancement is just because producers have lost their leverage or what? Yes. And I watched somebody the other day, uh, usually I don't watch other analysts because it messes me up, but this guy was talking about how nothing's changed, the fundamentals are just as good as they ever been. I'm going like, hey, what about Lexington, Slaterton, Jaslin? Um, you know, not, you know, sitting here in Sioux Center, Iowa, and say, well, what does Jaslin have to do with it? Well, you'd be surprised how you throw a rock in those, those, those waves go all the way out. I mean, is completely disrupted the cattle market. Ask anybody that's got some fat cows around how their market is. It, and then that also has disrupted our ability to, where, where now we're competing with these spaces up here, uh, of, of what's going on with, um, you know, trying to negotiate, and we're the negotiators, right? Uh, the South largely, you know, hardly any negotiated trade there. The Kansas and Texas have both failed for confidentiality for a couple of months in a row. So, uh, the fact that we have a few cattle now, look at the Nebraska numbers on feed, and the Iowa numbers on feed, way more than a year ago. The South is tight because the border's been closed, right? It's pretty simple. Um, so now we've got some cattle up here. We've got a regional imbalance in supply. We don't quite have the buying power that we had. So, it's not, it doesn't take a big stretch to understand maybe why we're just trading a little bit, struggling here to trade a little bit. Now, we are seeing some cattle bought here and exported to the South. I know freight's high, but it's not $6 a hundred either, I don't think, to move cattle from here to Kansas or something like that. So, as, as we see more and more of that, I'll become more and more encouraged as we move through this little supply cattle that we have now. And the Friday push really was courtesy of a 20-cent drop in the corn market too, wasn't it? 100%. I'm glad you brought it up. I, I don't know what we would be doing here Friday anyway, uh, otherwise, but, you know, corn was down a limit for a while. And certainly that helped the feeder cattle jump start, and the feeder cattle, of course, you know, that flows into the cattle. Um, and, but it, that did happen. But yes, I thought that that was the catalyst for the big move on Friday, the sharply lower corn, which, uh, I'm sure I'm not alone in, in, uh, taking a little umbrage to the surprise of that number there. But, uh, anyway, we are up a little bit on the corn and, uh, and still down a little bit on the feeder cattle in fats. Yeah. What about, um, demand? Box beef down on the choice, I think about $11 last week. And certainly there's a lot of talk about the record imports that are coming in and grinding meat being part of that. What do you see? Is it that or is it demand slowing down? Well, demand is always much more difficult to measure than supply anyway. That was willing to work a little bit, I think, and come up with a pretty good guess on supply. Demand is more difficult. Uh, so, you know, you get this talk around stuff, and that's what I do too. Uh, you know, I talk to different, uh, folks, uh, through different levels of the procurement thing. Um, and frankly, I just don't hear anything real great. Um, the grind has slowed up a little bit. Demand for hamburger is still pretty good, but not quite like it was. Um, the general value of the boxes here, um, the choice select spread is pretty good, which is good, but that's very seasonal. Otherwise, generally, I don't hear anybody that's real inspired here for a minute on demand. I think you still got a little bit of a pullback from the, from the public that's worried about, you know, the cost of energy, the recession talk, the just the whole negativity surrounding this whole beef too high baloney. Uh, uh, because it gets to be a perception rather than a, you know, and then that becomes reality. Uh, so, no, we're, we're struggling a little bit here, I think, generally on the demand side. And, and, um, hopefully that gets better. But usually not until you get a lot closer to Christmas, and here we are only in the middle of October. Yeah. And when you talk about that demand getting better, we're also going to get into the tighter numbers that we saw in the cattle on feed report, but that's not going to happen until what, first quarter? That's when the tightness is really going to come into play? I, I remain, that's a great point. I remain very friendly for the first quarter of the year, assuming that we clean up now, which I think we will. Um, I, I, I take the market back above 240 again here in the first quarter. Uh, I think there's a few less yearlings available because I think we are retaining a few heifers, so those went to the pasture instead of a feedlot. Uh, and so I think, you know, tight supply and hopefully a little more, uh, confidence in, in our economy and, and a little less noise out of Washington ought to help us, uh, have a pretty good first quarter, I would think. And we need to, given what the cost of those yearlings were. Yeah. There's the bullish Brad that I know. All right, let's talk about the hogs. Um, talk about a train wreck there. New contract closed on Friday, trying to bounce today. Just a dead cat bounce is all because we're oversold or what? Dead cat bounce. I tell you what, if we just sold every bounce on those hogs here for the last decade, I don't know, guys, you know, I, of course, the hog industry has changed, you know, when I started, I had probably over a hundred hog customers, and now I probably have less than five. Uh, a very integrated market. Nobody, I, I would guess that people on here would, uh, hesitate to know what even cash hogs are, right? Um, so, Joe was telling me Friday that the cutout is now at three-year lows on the pork. The pork cutout is on three-year lows. Below 80 bucks. Put that in relation to where the cattle are, the beef is. I, what do we got to do this for in demand here on the pork? I, you know, I've said it a hundred times, when you're, when you're producing this much product, when you're killing this many hogs, you better have great demand. Otherwise, you're in trouble. We don't have great demand. We did have pretty good domestic demand, but our, our global demand is poor. Other than Mexico, we're not doing nothing. No, we haven't heard from China in years. It's because they've got their, their hog herd back on going again. Uh, so, I don't know. I don't know what to say. I, I, you know, I can show you my scar from 2019 when they, when the USDA told us that, that South Dakota had a big crop, and I, and they never got to plant it. You knew it, I knew it. Anybody that had a, We had over 20 million prevent plant acres that year. Took us 16 months to get the truth out of that, that deal. So, I don't want to sit here and be, you know, it is what it is. Those are the cards that are dealt. Um, now, do I think the market has value down here? I sure do. Uh, do I think we can go back to where we were? Yes, I do. Um, but, you know, now, you, you, you have shook the funds. One day record volume, splattered the funds all over the place. They were record long, but they're down a long ways now. Now, if we can stabilize, we don't have to take another big round of fund selling here. I think you can stabilize right here between 460 and 470 on the front end of the market. And then maybe we can try to rebuild this thing. Um, I, there, there had to been a big exchange of ownership. I would have loved to have a pit environment to see, was it fund selling and commercial buying on Friday? Is that what took us up off the lows? Somebody had them, you know, a little bit of courage there and took us up off that limit down stuff. So, um, the bean thing, we continue to get decent demand news. This crop is coming at us like in a rush, though. Like you said, everybody and their dog was combining here the last few days. And it looks like we got wide open weather. So, we're going to pound this crop into it. But, uh, hopefully we can come out of the backside of this thing by the end of the month. Yeah, and corn's holding the 200-day moving average. Let's hope that does hold. All right, thanks so much, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varley and Markets Now. So, you're saying there's a chance? Yeah. Stay in your, yeah, you're saying there's a chance. All right, thanks so much, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varley and Markets Now. You're welcome.",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-12T14:31:31Z",
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  "reporting_date": "2026-10-12",
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