Elk Trading - Natural Gas - Run #4097
Reporting Date: 2026-10-12
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 12, 2026 at 03:17 PM
- Completed At
- October 12, 2026 at 03:18 PM
- Duration
- 2 minutes
- Headline
- What's New in Natural Gas - November Futures (NGX26 @ 3.130) | 10.12.2026
Data Preview
{
"title": "What's New in Natural Gas - November Futures (NGX26 @ 3.130) | 10.12.2026",
"filter": {
"keywords": [
"natural gas"
],
"match_mode": "any",
"match_fields": [
"title",
"description"
],
"semantic_filter": true
},
"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@ElKTradingCoLLC",
"title": "ELK TRADING Co LLC | Natural Gas Trading",
"handle": "ElKTradingCoLLC",
"channel_id": "UCcvcKcyIO_nhZrRubvfxO3w"
},
"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"Expansion of Iran war hostilities impacting energy markets.",
"Demand destruction from hurricanes in the US.",
"Disagreement between weather models creating uncertainty; if cold weather verifies, it could lead to a crowded short market and an upside move.",
"Warmer temperatures in the front side of winter could reduce demand.",
"European gas storage remaining below target levels.",
"Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz affecting European natural gas prices.",
"Potential for new tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.",
"Drought conditions persisting in key US regions."
],
"topics": [
"Natural Gas",
"LNG",
"Futures",
"Weather Models",
"Geopolitics",
"European Gas Storage",
"US Weather",
"Hurricanes",
"Drought",
"Nuclear Outages",
"Teleconnections",
"Arctic Ice",
"Energy Stocks"
],
"summary": "The natural gas market is experiencing mixed signals, with the November 2026 futures contract currently down. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and demand destruction from two US hurricanes are weighing on prices, while hints of colder weather in upcoming forecasts and increasing LNG export capacity provide some bullish support. European gas storage levels remain below target, adding to global supply concerns.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Tim Beggins",
"type": "person",
"context": "President of Elk Trading Company"
},
{
"name": "Elk Trading Company",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Speaker's company"
},
{
"name": "Natural Gas",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Primary topic of discussion"
},
{
"name": "Iran",
"type": "region",
"context": "Source of geopolitical hostilities"
},
{
"name": "Riyadh Airport",
"type": "other",
"context": "Target of ballistic missile attack"
},
{
"name": "US",
"type": "region",
"context": "Affected by hurricanes, LNG facilities, weather"
},
{
"name": "Cove Point LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility back online"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "LNG facility ramping to new demand high"
},
{
"name": "GFS model",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Weather model showing colder temperatures"
},
{
"name": "European model",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Weather model, sometimes conflicting with GFS"
},
{
"name": "Rachel",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Hurricane name"
},
{
"name": "Utah",
"type": "region",
"context": "Path of Hurricane Rachel"
},
{
"name": "New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Source of COT report data"
},
{
"name": "Managed money",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Hedge funds in COT report"
},
{
"name": "Super El Nino",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Weather phenomenon impacting winter temperatures"
},
{
"name": "New England",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting colder temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Mid-Atlantic States",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting colder temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Chicago",
"type": "region",
"context": "Populated area mentioned in weather outlook"
},
{
"name": "New York",
"type": "region",
"context": "Populated area mentioned in weather outlook"
},
{
"name": "Atlanta",
"type": "region",
"context": "Populated area mentioned in weather outlook"
},
{
"name": "Upper Midwest",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting above normal temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Calgary",
"type": "region",
"context": "Source of colder air in European model"
},
{
"name": "Denver",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area affected by colder air"
},
{
"name": "Boston",
"type": "region",
"context": "City with specific temperature forecast"
},
{
"name": "Dakotas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting warmer temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Desert Southwest",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting warmer temperatures"
},
{
"name": "US Gulf Coast",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting warmer temperatures"
},
{
"name": "North Carolina",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting warmer temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Great Lakes States",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting cooler temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Europe",
"type": "region",
"context": "Discussed for gas storage and weather"
},
{
"name": "France",
"type": "region",
"context": "Mentioned in European weather forecast"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"type": "region",
"context": "Mentioned in European weather forecast and storage"
},
{
"name": "Balkans",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting cooler weather"
},
{
"name": "Italy",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting cooler weather and storage"
},
{
"name": "Romania",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting warmer weather and storage"
},
{
"name": "Spain",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area expecting cooler weather"
},
{
"name": "Netherlands",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "Belgium",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "Poland",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "Portugal",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with gas storage levels"
},
{
"name": "TTF Natural Gas Month Futures",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "European natural gas futures"
},
{
"name": "Strait of Hormuz",
"type": "other",
"context": "Location of renewed hostilities"
},
{
"name": "Hurricane Simon",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Hurricane in the Pacific"
},
{
"name": "Guadalajara",
"type": "region",
"context": "City near Hurricane Simon's path"
},
{
"name": "Texas",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area potentially receiving rain from Hurricane Simon"
},
{
"name": "Guatemala",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country near Investigate 93E"
},
{
"name": "Pacific",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of hurricane activity"
},
{
"name": "Tokyo",
"type": "region",
"context": "City with specific temperature"
},
{
"name": "Beijing",
"type": "region",
"context": "City with specific temperature"
},
{
"name": "New Delhi",
"type": "region",
"context": "City with specific temperature"
},
{
"name": "Tibet",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with cooler weather"
},
{
"name": "India",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with warm weather"
},
{
"name": "Eastern China",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with moderate weather"
},
{
"name": "Korea",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with moderate weather"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with moderate weather"
},
{
"name": "Ras Laffan",
"type": "other",
"context": "LNG loading facility in Qatar"
},
{
"name": "Qatar",
"type": "region",
"context": "Country with LNG loading facility"
},
{
"name": "Oman",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of ship attack"
},
{
"name": "Cameron LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Freeport LNG",
"type": "organization",
"context": "US LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Sabine Pass",
"type": "other",
"context": "Location fed by Creole Trail pipeline"
},
{
"name": "Corpus Christi",
"type": "other",
"context": "US LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Calcasieu Pass",
"type": "other",
"context": "US LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Plaquemines",
"type": "other",
"context": "US LNG export facility"
},
{
"name": "Golden Pass Pipeline",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Pipeline reaching new demand high"
},
{
"name": "Southeast",
"type": "region",
"context": "US region affected by hurricanes and drought"
},
{
"name": "Gulf of Mexico",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with warm water temperatures"
},
{
"name": "Cape Verde Islands",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of tropical disturbance"
},
{
"name": "Arizona",
"type": "region",
"context": "US state affected by drought"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
"type": "region",
"context": "US state affected by drought"
},
{
"name": "PNA",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Pacific North American teleconnection index"
},
{
"name": "AO",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Arctic Oscillation teleconnection index"
},
{
"name": "NAO",
"type": "concept",
"context": "North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection index"
},
{
"name": "Greenland",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with colder air"
},
{
"name": "Siberia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with colder air"
},
{
"name": "Alaska",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with colder air"
},
{
"name": "Rocky Mountains",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with colder air"
},
{
"name": "California",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with colder air and drought"
},
{
"name": "Hudson Bay",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with colder air and ice formation"
},
{
"name": "Arctic",
"type": "region",
"context": "Area with ice formation"
},
{
"name": "RRC (Range Resources)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "LB (Landbridge Company)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CNX (CNX Resources)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Natural gas focused E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CRGY (Crestwood Energy)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "NOG (Northern Oil and Gas)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "CRK (Comstock Resources)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Natural gas focused E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "BKV (BKV Corp)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Natural gas focused E&P stock"
},
{
"name": "MTDR (Matador Resources)",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Oil & Gas E&P stock"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 0.9,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "Iran war hostilities are expanding, with a ballistic missile attack on Riyadh airport.",
"timestamp": "00:14",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Demand destruction in the US is occurring from two hurricanes, one meandering through the Southeast and another, named Rachel, heading toward Utah.",
"timestamp": "00:21",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Cove Point LNG is back online.",
"timestamp": "00:27",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Golden Pass LNG is ramping to a new demand high.",
"timestamp": "00:32",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The Natural Gas November 26 contract (NGX26) is currently trading down 8.9 cents (2.8%) at 3.1310.",
"timestamp": "00:38",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the November 26 contract has turned lower.",
"timestamp": "00:49",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Overnight, the GFS weather model showed colder weather, but the European model did not verify it this morning.",
"timestamp": "00:52",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Natural Gas November 26 contract is currently testing the 13-period exponential moving average, which came in today at 3.1210.",
"timestamp": "01:11",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "On the hourly chart, the contract is below the daily pivot of 3.1930 and holding just below the first support level (now resistance) at 3.1390.",
"timestamp": "01:25",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The hourly RSI is trying to turn to the upside, indicating a hint of cold air despite disagreement between weather models.",
"timestamp": "01:40",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "If the next two days of weather models verify colder temperatures, the market is a crowded short and due for an upside move.",
"timestamp": "01:50",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Managed money (hedge funds) are roughly 145,000 contracts short in natural gas futures, according to the Commitment of Traders report.",
"timestamp": "02:00",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The January versus December natural gas contract spread is up 1.6 cents (over 3.5%), currently trading at 44.2 cents, with the RSI turning to the upside.",
"timestamp": "02:20",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The normal winter carry cost for natural gas storage is 25 cents.",
"timestamp": "02:34",
"importance": "low"
},
{
"point": "The warmer temperature risk is to the front side of winter, while the colder risk is to the back side of winter, influencing the spread.",
"timestamp": "02:43",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The 6-10 day temperature outlook (October 17-21, 2026) shows colder temperatures coming into New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, which are populated weighted areas.",
"timestamp": "02:56",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The 8-14 day temperature outlook (October 19-25, 2026) shows above-normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest, with the European model currently showing warmer conditions than the GFS model.",
"timestamp": "03:13",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The European model forecasts colder air from Calgary (29F) pushing toward Denver (34F) and cooler temperatures in Boston, New York City, and Chicago (all 44F) around October 17.",
"timestamp": "03:34",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The GFS model is running much colder than the European model for the same forecast period, and if they agree on colder weather, it could significantly impact the market.",
"timestamp": "04:57",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "European underground gas storage is 73.6% full, which is below their 80% target (previously 90%), and injections are expected to taper off quickly after this week.",
"timestamp": "05:54",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Germany's gas storage is 60% full, the Netherlands is 62%, Belgium is 65%, and the United Kingdom is 35%, indicating varying levels of preparedness across Europe.",
"timestamp": "06:16",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "TTF Natural Gas Month Futures are up 2.5% at 83.5 Euros per megawatt-hour due to renewed hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, with the RSI turning higher.",
"timestamp": "06:47",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Demand destruction is noted in the US Southeast due to one hurricane and in Southern California, Utah, and Arizona due to Hurricane Rachel.",
"timestamp": "07:37",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Hurricane Simon, a Category 1 hurricane, is coming ashore near Guadalajara, Mexico, and may push rain toward Texas.",
"timestamp": "07:48",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "No major hurricane activity is currently observed in the Gulf of Mexico, but warm water temperatures suggest potential for future development.",
"timestamp": "10:52",
"importance": "low"
},
{
"point": "A tropical disturbance off the Cape Verde Islands has a 20% chance of formation in the next seven days.",
"timestamp": "11:06",
"importance": "low"
},
{
"point": "The US Drought Monitor shows drought conditions in the Southeast (expected to be alleviated by hurricane rain) and in Southern California, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada (expected to be alleviated by Hurricane Rachel).",
"timestamp": "11:17",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The PNA teleconnection index is slightly negative but forecast to go positive, while the AO and NAO indices are forecast to go negative in the next week.",
"timestamp": "12:02",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Colder air is circulating around Hudson Bay and pushing into New England, with Arctic ice starting to form nicely, including in southern Hudson Bay.",
"timestamp": "12:20",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Natural gas-focused E&P stocks (CNX, CRK, BKV) are down, while crude oil-focused E&P stocks (RRC, LB, MGY, NOG, CRGY, MTDR) are mostly up.",
"timestamp": "13:20",
"importance": "medium"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"value": "3.1310",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 futures (NGX26)"
},
{
"note": "13-period exponential moving average",
"value": "3.1210",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 futures (NGX26)",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Daily pivot",
"value": "3.1930",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 futures (NGX26)",
"level_type": "pivot"
},
{
"note": "First support level, now acting as resistance",
"value": "3.1390",
"instrument": "Natural Gas Nov 26 futures (NGX26)",
"level_type": "resistance"
},
{
"note": "44.2 cents",
"value": "0.442",
"instrument": "Jan vs Dec Natural Gas contract spread",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Euros per MWh",
"value": "83.5",
"instrument": "TTF Natural Gas Month Futures",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "short_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "3.1310",
"metric": "Natural Gas Nov 26 futures price",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "-0.089 (-2.8%)",
"metric": "Natural Gas Nov 26 futures price change",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "turned lower",
"metric": "RSI",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "3.1210",
"metric": "13-period exponential moving average",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "3.1930",
"metric": "Daily pivot",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "3.1390",
"metric": "First support level (now resistance)",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "roughly 145,000",
"metric": "Managed money short positions (futures only)",
"period": "Last week",
"source": "Commitment of Traders (COT) report"
},
{
"value": "up 1.6 cents (over 3.5%) at 44.2 cents",
"metric": "Jan vs Dec Natural Gas contract spread",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Barchart"
},
{
"value": "73.6% (832 TWh)",
"metric": "EU underground gas storage fullness",
"period": "Current",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "85.3% (969 TWh)",
"metric": "EU underground gas storage fullness (Y-1)",
"period": "Last year",
"source": "KYOS European Gas Analytics"
},
{
"value": "60%",
"metric": "Germany gas storage fullness",
"period": "Latest update",
"source": "ENTSOG Maps"
},
{
"value": "62%",
"metric": "Netherlands gas storage fullness",
"period": "Latest update",
"source": "ENTSOG Maps"
},
{
"value": "65%",
"metric": "Belgium gas storage fullness",
"period": "Latest update",
"source": "ENTSOG Maps"
},
{
"value": "35%",
"metric": "United Kingdom gas storage fullness",
"period": "Latest update",
"source": "ENTSOG Maps"
},
{
"value": "83.5 Euros per MWh",
"metric": "TTF Natural Gas Month Futures price",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "EEX"
},
{
"value": "1.486 MMcf/d",
"metric": "Cameron LNG operating capacity",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Cameron Interstate Pipeline LLC"
},
{
"value": "1.75 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Total scheduled quantity",
"period": "Sunday October 11, 2026",
"source": "Freeport LNG"
},
{
"value": "1.52 Bcf/d out of 1.7 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Sabine Pass flow",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "2.66 Bcf/d out of 2.75 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Corpus Christi flow",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Cheniere Corpus Christi Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "over 4 Bcf/d",
"metric": "Plaquemines flow",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Venture Global Gator Express LLC"
},
{
"value": "642,908 MMBtu/day",
"metric": "Tennessee delivery quantity",
"period": "October 12, 2026",
"source": "Golden Pass Pipeline"
},
{
"value": "Colder temperatures in New England, Mid-Atlantic states",
"metric": "6-10 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 17-21, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "Above normal temperatures in Upper Midwest",
"metric": "8-14 Day Temperature Outlook",
"period": "October 19-25, 2026",
"source": "NOAA"
},
{
"value": "Denver 34F, Boston 44F, NYC 44F, Chicago 44F",
"metric": "2m AGL Temperature (F) forecast",
"period": "October 17, 2026",
"source": "Pivotal Weather (ECMWF model)"
},
{
"value": "20%",
"metric": "Disturbance 1 formation chance",
"period": "Next 7 days",
"source": "National Hurricane Center"
},
{
"value": "Southeast, Southern California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada",
"metric": "Drought conditions",
"period": "October 6, 2026",
"source": "U.S. Drought Monitor"
},
{
"value": "20.7 GW",
"metric": "US nuclear capacity outage",
"period": "Last year at this time",
"source": "EIA"
},
{
"value": "Slightly negative, forecast to go positive",
"metric": "PNA Index",
"period": "October 11, 2026",
"source": "Highcharts.com"
},
{
"value": "Forecast to go negative in the next week",
"metric": "AO and NAO Indices",
"period": "October 11, 2026",
"source": "Highcharts.com"
},
{
"value": "Starting to form nicely, some in southern Hudson Bay",
"metric": "Arctic ice formation",
"period": "Current",
"source": "National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder"
},
{
"value": "up 1.44%",
"metric": "Matador Resources (MTDR) stock performance",
"period": "October 8, 2026",
"source": "Bubbles (stock market data)"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses natural gas futures, prices, weather impacts, LNG exports, and European storage, all of which are core topics for natural gas analysis."
},
"video_id": "qWMgQhuyd-Q",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWMgQhuyd-Q",
"transcript": "Good morning, natural gas. It's Monday, October the 12th, 2026. I'm Tim Beggins, President of Elk Trading Company, and this is the top news for natural gas. Number one, the Iran war hostilities start to expand. A ballistic missile attack on a Riyadh airport. Number two, demand destruction in the US from two hurricanes. Number three, Cove Point LNG back online. And number four, Golden Pass LNG ramps to new demand high. Let's turn to the spot November contract. We're currently down. We're currently trading at 3.1310, down 8.9 cents here, almost 2.8%. And as you can see, the RSI is now turned lower. Overnight, we saw some colder weather showing up on the GFS model, but this morning the European would not verify. And as a result, we're watching the demand destruction from two hurricanes in the United States, one meandering through the Southeast, and one meandering toward Utah. That's Rachel. And as you can see right now, we are testing the 13-period exponential moving average, which came in today at 3.1210. So again, watch out, we're holding at support, but if it falls below here, we've got some more room to the downside. Let's take a look at the hourly chart, and as you can see, we are below the daily pivot, which came in today at 3.1930 here, but we are holding just below the first support level, which is now going to act as resistance here at 3.1390. But you could see the RSI is trying to turn to the upside. Why? Because the weather models really are in disagreement, but that means that there's a hint of cold air out there. And if the next runs for the next two days start to verify cold, this is a crowded short market and due for an upside move. Let's take a look here at the Commitment of Traders report here. And this is from the New York Mercantile Exchange here. This is just futures only here. And as you can see, the managed money or hedge funds are roughly about 145,000 short. Again, this is a lag here, and there was some short covering over last week. And let's take a look at the Jan versus December contract here, the spread. And as you can see right now, we're up here, up 1.6 cents here, over one and a half cents right now, over 3.5%. The RSI is turning to the upside here. Normal winter, we're roughly at the carry cost here at 25 cents for storage, but look at Super El Nino. What's the problem here? The warmer temperature risk is to the front side of winter, colder risk to the back side of winter. So this spread is starting to widen out here, right now, currently trading at 44.2 cents. Let's take a look at the 6-10 day temperature outlook, and there is some of that colder temperature coming in into New England, into the Mid-Atlantic states. Again, these are your populated weighted areas here between Chicago, New York, and Atlanta. That's the triangle we'll be watching all winter long. And here's the 8-14 day temperature outlook. There's the above normal temperatures coming in the upper Midwest because we still seem to have some, again, disparities between the European model and the GFS model. Right now, they're going with the European model here, and it is warmer in the 8-14 day temperature outlook. And let's take a look at that European model here, and as you can see here, it starts to show that colder air coming in from Calgary here, 29 degrees in Calgary, and that pushes down toward Denver here as it does normally. And then you start seeing cooler temperatures showing up here in New England, into the Mid-Atlantic states. Here's on the 17th. Look at the cooler temperatures there into Denver, 34 degrees here, and then you can see Boston 44 degrees, New York City also 44 degrees, Chicago 44 degrees. So, the trifecta right there. And let's push it out a little further. As you can see, it's warmer right there. There's that October 20th there, warm temperatures moving from the South here all the way up into the Dakotas. And there's that big dome again into the 20th. Right now, all the way through for the next few days before colder air is supposed to come in here and push it out toward the Southeast here. Looking late here in the temperature, uh, forecast maps here, the the warmer temperatures are going to be locked into the Desert Southwest and along the US Gulf Coast, all the way back up into North Carolina. But as you can see, cooler weather coming down from Calgary straight down into Denver, cooler weather coming in from Canada down into New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, as well as parts of the Great Lake states. So, if we switch to the GFS model, though, it was much cooler in this same forecast. Take a look right at the end here. And there is that cold, cold air coming in on the GFS. So it is running much colder than the European model. Watch out if these two start to be in agreement on the colder weather. Let's take a look at France and Germany in particular. Let's take a look. There's cooler weather right now going through both of those countries. Warmer temperatures are expected on tomorrow here before some cooler weather comes back into the uh, region here for Spain and not Spain and France. Over uh, the next uh, few days there over the weekend. Cooler weather coming into the Balkans and Italy. But as you can see, late in the forecast period, it's a mixed bag here. Warmer temperatures from France here, all the way back over to Romania, but cooler weather in Northern Germany and parts of Spain. So let's take a look at the European storage. 73.6% full. Again, it's probably going to get around 76, 77%. That's still below their 80% target, and that target was moved down from 90%. As you can see, injections start to taper off pretty quickly here after this week. And let's see where the problem children are, and that's Germany, 60%. The largest consumer of natural gas in Europe here. Right behind, though, it's the Netherlands at 62%, Belgium at 65%. And as you can see, Ukraine, uh, excuse me, United Kingdom 35% at this stage. So, really, it is a tough, tough haul here for some of these countries. Other countries like Poland and Portugal, and even Romania are doing fairly well, even Italy. So, it is a mixed bag. We'll see how winter shapes up in the first few weeks. Let's take a look at the uh, UK here, excuse me, TTF prices here. This is in Euros per megawatt-hour. And because of the renewed hostilities around the Gulf of Hormuz, or Strait of Hormuz, excuse me, in the Gulf, it is up again 2.5% here, running at uh, 83.5 Euros per megawatt-hour. The RSI is turning higher. So, we'll look to see both the uh, TTF and the JKM. This is for uh, the front contract here, but we'll also see the whole strip for winter start to move to new highs soon if this continues. And let's take a look at the US here, and this is the hurricane tracker right now. There's uh, Esaie, Esaie, I can't even pronounce this. I'm sorry. But then there's Rachel over here in the West here, going up toward St. George, Utah. So, there's some demand destruction here in the Southeast, some demand destruction in Southern California up into Utah. That's Rachel. And as you can see, we've got a few more uh, hurricanes out in the Pacific, but we've got one right down here, Simon, near Guadalajara. It is coming on shore uh, about a uh, Category 1 hurricane, and then starting to push off maybe toward Texas with some rain. That'll be good. We'll we'll take the rain there. That's for sure. We've got some activity a little bit further south in 93E investigate. So we'll be watching this. Again, this is uh, just south here of Guatemala. We'll see what the tracker brings. But over in the Pacific, you can see there really is just 28 and Kaguma here. And let's take a look a little further. And we'll pull the temperature maps here for the region here. If we can get that to go. Come on, temperatures. See, we get a little closer. There we go. Tokyo 64 degrees, Beijing 66 degrees, and New Delhi at 79 degrees. Typical, we've got some cooler weather across Tibet here, still warm in India, fairly moderate in Eastern China, and moderate in the Koreas and Japan at this time. And as you can see here, going through the weather, it is a mixed bag. There is some warmer temperatures moving in for the next few days. Then it gets colder. Then that cold air comes in from Mongolia here into Eastern, uh, excuse me, Northern China, and then pushes off into Eastern China, hits the Koreas and Japan here toward the 21st and 22nd here. And then right behind it looks like some really warm temperatures here as we get all the way out into October the 26th. Let's take a look at the uh, LNG and Ras Laffan because of the hostilities, nothing is loading at Qatar at this stage. Let's take a look at the incidents report here. And as you can see, there was another attack here. Uh, this was yesterday here on a ship just off of Oman here. So, that's the latest here at this stage. There was an attack on a ship that was at anchorage just off Oman. And let's turn to the US. Cameron LNG is running 1.486. Great news there. It still needs to ramp up a little bit. Freeport, though, is the good news. Freeport's up and running here. Up right now to 1.75 right now. That's really good news. Was stable yesterday and is stable now again today. How about LNG? Creole Trail feeds Sabine Pass, and it's running 1.52 out of 1.7. And here is Corpus Christi, 2.66 out of 2.75. Doing very well right there. Here is Calcasieu Pass here, running 1.75. Doing what really well here. Ramp up a little bit further for the last few days. And there is Plaquemines running over 4 BCF. The good news here, Golden Pass, over 600,000. That's fantastic news. New all-time high here for Golden Pass here. 642 right now. And it is looking like it is finally starting to make a run for full commissioning here, which would be about 800 to 850,000 MMBtu's. That'd be great news for Golden Pass to finally get this into service. Let's take a look at the Southeast and this is the Gulf here. And as you can see, it's fairly quiet across the Gulf right now. No major activity here. But the water temperatures are fairly warm. So, should something brew up, it's got plenty of strength. We've got something off the Cape Verde Islands here. And then it is running right now at a 20% chance of formation for the next seven days. Nothing else in the Atlantic at this time. How about the drought? Yeah, we've got a drought. And that is good news that we're going to get some rainfall here in the Southeast from the hurricane. That will alleviate some of the drought conditions there. Hopefully, Rachel will relieve some of the drought conditions in Southern California, up into Arizona, into Utah, Nevada. That will be great news there as well. Let's take a look at the US nuclear fleet. Let's see if they've updated it here. This morning, they were a little slow to get things running. Nope, still not running here. But there was about uh, last year at this time, it was running right here about 20.7 gigawatts were offline. It was a new record at that time. So, unfortunately, the government's a little slow to get this updated this morning. Let's take a look at the teleconnections here. And the PNA is slightly negative. It is forecast to go positive here over the next few days. Everything else is staying fairly positive for a few days, and then it's going negative. The AO and the NAO are all forecast to go negative in the next week. Let's take a look at the global map here. And there's that colder air over Greenland, Northern Greenland, as usual. Colder air into Siberia here. And there's colder air through Alaska, all the way down into uh, the Rocky Mountains here in the United States. Even parts of California getting a little colder there as well. So, you can see that colder air is starting to circulate around Hudson Bay and pushing into New England. So, we'll be keeping a careful eye on this because we are trading a winter contract. We're trading the November contract. And here we go with the ice. It is starting to form nicely here up in the Arctic. As you can see, there's a little bit of ice forming in the southern part of Hudson Bay. Watch these northern approaches, these islands up here. Once that ice covers that space here, the rest of that body of water tends to quickly fill with a layer of ice. Right now, we are still a little light on the Russian side of things up in the Arctic, but as you can see, there is still some ice forming here in some of these bays here. That's good news for the winter. And let's take a look at the stocks here. These are stocks in the oil and gas E&P sector, stocks between two and ten billion dollars. Have a high short float, over 10%. And as you can see, we've got another customer here, RRC, Range Resources is now added to the list here. And it is a mixed bag right now. CNX and CRK, and BKV, mostly natural gas focused there, are down. But the crude oil side, more crude, you know, if you exposure there, is all in the positives here. All the way behind me, Matador up 1.44%. So, recapping here for the spot November contract, we're currently down. We're currently trading at 3.13 even, down 9 cents or 2.8%. RSI is pointing lower, but the hourly chart is trying to turn a little bit higher. Let's see what happens here. We're dealing with demand destruction versus conflicting weather reports and an improving LNG situation. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.",
"description": "Top News for Natural Gas: \n1.) Iran war hostilities expand \n2.) Demand destruction from two hurricanes \n3.) Cove Point LNG back online \n4.) Golden Pass LNG ramps to new demand high\n\nNG Stock Watch List Oil & Gas EMP Sector\nMarket Cap 2-10B, High short float over 10% \nBKV | CNX | CRGY | CRK | LB | MGY | MTDR | NOG | RRC",
"match_reason": "Matched natural gas (mode: any)",
"published_at": "2026-10-12T14:30:17Z",
"thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qWMgQhuyd-Q/hqdefault.jpg",
"reporting_date": "2026-10-12",
"analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
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