Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 12, 2026 at 02:17 PM

Completed At

October 12, 2026 at 02:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Pro Farmer Podcast: October 12, 2026

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Pro Farmer Podcast: October 12, 2026",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
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  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Continued fund liquidation in corn.",
      "Continued hedge pressure from the Western Corn Belt.",
      "Widespread quality issues in corn due to excessive rain, leading to stiff discounts or rejection.",
      "Mycotoxin growth in stored grain.",
      "Lack of follow-through in cash cattle trade.",
      "Continued high hog production.",
      "Ongoing infrastructure damage and conflict in the Black Sea region impacting grain flows."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Wheat",
      "Cattle",
      "Hogs",
      "USDA Crop Production Report",
      "WASDE Report",
      "Market Analysis",
      "Crop Yields",
      "Harvest Progress",
      "Grain Quality",
      "Mycotoxins",
      "Export Demand",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Macroeconomics",
      "Black Sea Grain Initiative"
    ],
    "summary": "The podcast discusses the fallout from the latest USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, highlighting a surprising increase in corn yield despite expectations for a cut, which led to a limit-down day for December corn futures. Soybean yields were also raised, though with less market impact. Speakers express concerns about widespread quality issues and mycotoxins in the Western Corn Belt due to heavy rains, which could lead to significant discounts. The outlook for demand, particularly from China, and the ongoing geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region affecting wheat exports, remain key uncertainties for the grain markets. Livestock markets saw a bullish technical breakout in cattle, but sustained gains depend on cash market participation, while hog production continues to pressure prices.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Bill Watts",
        "type": "person"
      },
      {
        "name": "Lane Akre",
        "type": "person"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hillari Mason",
        "type": "person"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization"
      },
      {
        "name": "Pro Farmer",
        "type": "organization"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mexico",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Western Corn Belt",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Eastern Corn Belt",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mid-South",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iowa",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Illinois",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Indiana",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Nebraska",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "South Dakota",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Missouri",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Michigan",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wisconsin",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Southern Minnesota",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "North Africa",
        "type": "region"
      },
      {
        "name": "President Trump",
        "type": "person"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mycotoxins",
        "type": "concept"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ethanol",
        "type": "concept"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "USDA raised its estimate of average corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre from 178.5 in September, defying the average estimate for a 0.7 bushel cut.",
        "timestamp": "00:33",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "December corn briefly went limit down on Friday, finished 20 and a half cents lower.",
        "timestamp": "00:46",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn yield came in well above expectations; analysts were expecting a 0.7 bushel drop and it was raised by about 1.5.",
        "timestamp": "01:09",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Nebraska ear counts went from 25,000 ears per acre to 26.7 thousand ears per acre, a huge jump.",
        "timestamp": "01:42",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Implied ear weights jumped to the second highest level on record.",
        "timestamp": "02:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Slow harvest progress in parts of the Western Corn Belt raises questions about how many samples are actually at the lab.",
        "timestamp": "02:43",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Funds remain very long from a seasonal perspective, but this week will be key to see follow-through action.",
        "timestamp": "03:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If funds continue to liquidate and we continue to see hedge pressure from the Western Corn Belt, it could be really ugly.",
        "timestamp": "04:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Mid-South and Eastern Corn Belt harvest is really winding down, which may help mitigate some hedge pressure.",
        "timestamp": "04:20",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There's enough going on from a geopolitical and macroeconomic standpoint that we do probably have a near-term floor.",
        "timestamp": "04:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "USDA pegged the soybean yield at 53.1 bushels an acre, up from 52.8.",
        "timestamp": "06:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Pod weights are anticipated on being really strong this year due to moisture in the latter part of the growing season.",
        "timestamp": "06:56",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There are probably some pretty widespread quality issues in the Western Corn Belt just from the massive rains that fell in September.",
        "timestamp": "08:50",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Elevators and end-users are going to account for quality issues on the discount side, which could mean stiff discounts or rejection.",
        "timestamp": "09:53",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The January report may not even encompass the full breadth of the situation by January, so futures will only react when they get evidence.",
        "timestamp": "09:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Mexico has been buying corn for 2026, 2027, and 2028, indicating they see corn at value prices.",
        "timestamp": "14:07",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "China buying corn would be almost like a black swan event; the market isn't anticipating China buying any corn at this point.",
        "timestamp": "14:27",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Actual corn shipments so far this year have been phenomenal, pointing to a beat of the USDA export estimate.",
        "timestamp": "15:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "As the Board of Trade trades lower, we're going to be seeing increased world use in general.",
        "timestamp": "16:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "If lower prices pair with a much smaller crop than USDA pegged, that could be a big bullish catalyst down the road.",
        "timestamp": "16:27",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Black Sea infrastructure is down, and it's going to be a while for that situation to be overcome.",
        "timestamp": "17:34",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Global grain flows are definitely at risk for the foreseeable future due to infrastructure damage in the Black Sea region.",
        "timestamp": "18:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cattle saw a bullish technical breakout on the daily bar chart on Friday, but follow-through is key today.",
        "timestamp": "20:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cash cattle market continues to bleed lower, and it's going to be really hard for futures to work higher without the cash market participating.",
        "timestamp": "20:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Hog production continues to hang in there, pressuring cutout and cash, so we need to see a pullback in production.",
        "timestamp": "21:47",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Finished lower on Friday",
        "value": "20.5 cents lower",
        "instrument": "December Corn futures",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Futures are at a premium to cash",
        "value": "$8 premiums to December futures",
        "instrument": "Cash Cattle",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "181.2 bushels/acre",
        "metric": "Average Corn Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA"
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      {
        "value": "178.5 bushels/acre",
        "metric": "Average Corn Yield",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "53.1 bushels/acre",
        "metric": "Average Soybean Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "52.8 bushels/acre",
        "metric": "Average Soybean Yield",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "53.3 bushels/acre",
        "metric": "Average Soybean Yield",
        "source": "Pro Farmer"
      },
      {
        "value": "26,700 ears/acre",
        "metric": "Ear counts",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "Western Corn Belt (Nebraska)"
      },
      {
        "value": "Third wettest on record",
        "metric": "September rainfall",
        "source": "Western Corn Belt (Iowa)"
      },
      {
        "value": "For 2026, 2027, 2028",
        "metric": "Corn purchases",
        "period": "Last couple weeks",
        "source": "Mexico"
      },
      {
        "value": "Phenomenal",
        "metric": "Corn exports (actual shipments)",
        "period": "So far this year",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "Below last year",
        "metric": "Corn exports (sales)",
        "period": "So far this year",
        "source": "US"
      },
      {
        "value": "A lot",
        "metric": "Soybean exports",
        "period": "Start of marketing year",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "Slow",
        "metric": "Corn purchases",
        "source": "China"
      },
      {
        "value": "Very long (seasonal perspective)",
        "metric": "Funds position",
        "source": "Commitment of Traders (COT) report"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a substantive discussion on agricultural commodities, including corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock, with detailed analysis of USDA reports and market implications."
  },
  "video_id": "cLpYiji8Ni0",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLpYiji8Ni0",
  "transcript": "Welcome to the Pro Farmer Podcast, your source for what's impacting prices today and your guide to what will impact markets in the weeks ahead. More substance, less fuss. The Pro Farmer Podcast starts now. Hello and welcome to the Pro Farmer Podcast. I'm Bill Watts, editor of Pro Farmer. I'm joined by Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre and market analyst Hillari Mason. We certainly have a lot to talk about. Obviously, the big item on everyone's agenda is the fallout from Friday's USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. The big shocker there was USDA raising its estimate of average corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre from 178.5 in September, defying the average estimate for a 0.7 bushel cut. We briefly went limit down in December corn on Friday, finished 20 and a half cents lower. Looks like the market's trying to stabilize as we begin the new week, but uh, let's take a look at at what we got from USDA and uh, Lane, let's start with you. What what was the biggest shock uh to you or the biggest surprise in in Friday's numbers? Yeah, it's got to be the corn yield. Uh, corn yields came in well above expectations. Analysts were expecting a 0.7 bushel drop and it raised it by about one and a half. So, I think that defied almost all expectations. I think there was one analyst that came in expected a higher corn yield. And when you take a look at the objective data, we saw ear counts fall from the September figure, which which was expected. We expect that figure to continue to work lower, but there was one big outlier in all of that data. We saw uh Nebraska ear counts go from 25,000 ears per acre to 26.7,000 ears per acre. So a huge, huge jump there and with without that it would uh we would have saw a bigger decline. And really that just comes down to um some funny forecasting in that September number. So that September number probably shouldn't have ever been 25,000, but ultimately that's where it ended up. And then if you take this objective yield data and you you get the ear weights out of it, what's implied in those numbers and we see implied ear weights jump to the second highest level on record. So we went from seeing a big year over year drop in that September uh ear weight figure to now almost um well, it is the second highest ever. And again, this year with the challenges that we've had, some pollination issues and the the two studs and a dud uh motto off a crop tour, really surprised to see ear weights hold up as high as they are. And I think that's going to be one of the main focuses going forward. And again, with the slow harvest progress that we've had in in parts of the Western Corn Belt, it's kind of up to question how many samples are actually at the lab so far and that's where a lot of these ear weight numbers come from. So I think that's going to be something that we'll be keeping a really close eye on once we get into that November report, which should have a lot more of that um ear weight number, the the lab samples tested. Right. And I think, yeah, I think you get a lot of the issues there around these numbers. I think, you know, a lot of a lot of head scratchers there, but uh, you know, the market's going to trade the numbers that we have and uh, you know, we did see that initial uh reaction, which was to the downside. Hillari, what what did you make of the price action here? And how much is there a lot of downside risk here uh remaining or what what did we learn so far? Sure. You know, I I think, you know, obviously Friday wasn't pretty, but we've stabilized today. Um, and that's that's a promising sign. And also too, you know, commitment of traders were released on Friday and funds remain, you know, from a seasonal perspective, they they remained very long. Um, but I think this week will be key uh to see, you know, follow through this week uh to see how um, you know, the fund action plays out. Now, you know, if funds continue to liquidate and we continue to see hedge pressure, you know, from the Western Corn Belt, it could be really ugly. Um, so again, I I believe, you know, we this week will be key in determining, um, you know, the fund direction going forward. But I do believe also at the same time, you know, the Mid-South, um, and the Eastern Corn Belt, uh, harvest is is really, uh, winding down. Many producers are down to the short rows as they say. And so that may help, um, mitigate, um, some hedge pressure, um, that may exacerbate any fund liquidation that we could see this week. But, you know, so far, so good. And I think, you know, there's enough going on, you know, from a geopolitical, um, and a macroeconomic standpoint that, uh, we do probably have a near-term floor. And this market too, at the same time, um, just really in in every market, it just seems like, uh, there's an overreaction when when something happens. And and often times there it it may be a very minimal or small catalyst that causes, you know, an overreaction. So we just have a lot of, you know, money flow moving around, um, and so that's that's causing a lot of this just some volatility here. Um, but I do believe again, um, I I believe that the downside from here is is limited, um, until we know more. So. Right, right. Um, moving on to uh, to soybeans. We did see uh, USDA pump up the yield. We have a record crop, ending stocks also raised, but you know, not a huge move. We saw soybeans kind of hang in there on on Friday. Um, what what was your takeaway from that from that production figure on soybeans, which actually we did see soybeans, you know, moving up. So sort of, you know, that that kept moving in the same direction as the uh, as the Pro Farmer uh, crop tour uh, results showed. Yeah, USDA pegged the soy yield at 53.1 bushels an acre up from 52.8 and we continue to hold our estimate at 53.3. Here in Eastern Iowa, talked with guys around here and a little bit further north and I haven't heard of a bean yield um in the 60s. It's all been uh above that mark. So the beans have been really good so far this year and that's starting to get reflected more in uh these USDA reports. So expect to see a little bit more of the same. The reactionary uh right after the report, beans traded sharply lower and we ultimately scraped a lot of that back. And I think that just kind of goes what's already priced into this market. Uh we we've seen kind of the expectations of higher bean yields and that's been held true so far and uh like like Hillari mentioned, these markets react very fast and often times they can overreact and I think that's kind of what we saw on Friday. But getting into the numbers, the the pod weights very similar to to corn. The pod weights are anticipated on being really strong this year. The pods are there and we we had the moisture in the the latter part of the growing season to help fill a lot of these pods out. Now it's been it's been slow going for a lot of guys. A lot of a lot of beans here in the western part of the Corn Belt and we we noted that on crop tour in Illinois and in portions of Indiana as well. So it's been slow harvesting, but overall, the lazy beans have been have been yielding really good. And I think it's going to be a matter of how well they held up to some of the excess moisture in in portions of the Eastern Corn Belt and even portions over here in the Western Corn Belt with the third wettest September on record here in Iowa. Um, went out to to ride with my father-in-law who's driving a grain cart for a guy and it's remarkable how how green some of these stems are still on the soybeans. Soybeans look brown and and ready to go. The moisture is is ready for harvest, but still these these plants are are holding on. So that's been slow in harvest down quite a bit too. Yeah, that's that's an important part of of the picture here. And and Hillari, what what do you make of the uh, I guess the quality situation and and and how that translates uh into into price action? Is this primarily a a basis or or discount sort of story or you know, especially now that we've we've gotten the USDA numbers. I mean, the I guess how how does that all tie together between cash and futures as folks assess what's going on with weather? Sure. You know, we we know there's some obvious issues, um, and it may be, um, you know, a lot more spotty than than, you know, what Iowa got hit hard in September. We know that. And, you know, from what Lane is saying, you know, it sounds like, you know, you know, northern areas of the state are are okay, but I have to think that there's probably some some pretty widespread quality issues just from the massive rains that fell in September. And, you know, we we see pictures on Twitter and and that's not always a really great representation, but it's it's something. We know that there is a problem. We just don't know how bad it is. And we don't know how bad it is in Iowa, which is the worst hit state. So we certainly don't know how bad it is in Nebraska or South Dakota, um, or Missouri, um, or Michigan, or Wisconsin, or, uh, or Southern Minnesota. And so there's just a really large question mark that really encircles this entire, uh, Western corn crop, well, crop in general. Um, and so we we have a a lot to learn, um, and we have a long way to go. I would I would venture to say that the January report may not even, um, encompass or give us the final say on what actually happened, um, this this September. It's going to take some time to hammer all of that out. And so, that being said, you know, elevators, end users are going to, uh, they're going to account for it on their on the discount side. So, you know, for from a producer perspective, if if I'm a producer in the Western Corn Belt, I'm getting my hands on every discount schedule from every elevator, end user, any outlet that I'm going to deliver my grain because they're all going to be different more than likely. Um, and I you certainly want to know, uh, what what kind of discounts, uh, your grain is going to have, you know, once it's once it's, you know, dumped at the elevator. Um, it could be pretty, it could be pretty huge just because we know that there's probably some some pretty severe ear rot, some diplodia just from all of the rain. Um, there's probably going to be, um, some and that's that leads to damage. So there's a damage. Test weights could be a major issue. Um, often times when you have high damage, that's going to affect your test weights. Um, and also too, and maybe most importantly, is mycotoxins. I have to, I have to believe that, you know, with with, you know, the Western Corn Belt feeding several animals, um, these elevators are going to want to know what kind of toxin risk they're bringing into their elevator. Uh, because it doesn't, it doesn't go away. Um, often times when you put a bushel of grain in the bin, those mycotoxins can can can really grow like wildfire under the right conditions. And so these elevators, these these before they put it in the bin, they're going to want to know what they have. Um, and that could mean, um, some pretty stiff discounts. Uh, it could mean rejection. Um, and so I think just knowing that ahead of time before, um, you know, a producer gets to gets to get to their outlet, um, they need to know, you know, what their what their risks are financially and logistically if they have to turn around and take it somewhere else. So, um, that's going to be, you know, the system or the the, um, the infrastructure's way of kind of weeding out, uh, the the the subpar quality, um, in the Western Corn Belt. So, um, we'll kind of get an idea, you know, as we move forward here just based on, okay, um, you know, what what kind of quality these these these facilities have in house. What's the exportability looking like? What is the feedability looking like? Um, and also too, you know, what what are process processing yields? What are crush and, you know, ethanol yields looking like? Um, just because if, um, you know, these end users are are processing a damaged crop, the yield's going to be much lower. And so we're going to have several, we're going to have some ideas or we're going to, we're going to get a better idea, of course, as we move on here. Um, but that's going to be the first line of defense. And again, I I don't know that USDA is going to understand or or grasp the the full, uh, breadth of the situation even by January. Um, so futures will only react until they get evidence of that. And so I think that's something that we have to keep that we have to keep in mind going forward. Right, right. Okay, well, and uh, I I would note that uh, Hillari, you wrote a a about uh, the quality issues in the uh, From the Bullpen column in this week's uh, newsletter and also uh, uh, took a pretty in-depth look at it on uh, on profarmer.com. So folks should should definitely check that out if they're concerned about quality and uh, or looking for a guide on on how to think about that as harvest continues here. Um, I guess another question, you know, just uh, you know, in the wake of this report is, you know, on demand. Um, I guess how do we feel about, you know, do do we think especially for corn here with this this setback, uh, you know, do you think we'll we'll find some some demand showing up here? Is this going to be enough maybe to prompt China or others to come into the into the market or uh, I mean, obviously time will tell, but uh, how how do the demand prospects feel like at this point? Yeah, well, you look at Mexico stepping into the market the last couple weeks. They're buying corn for 2026, they're buying corn for 2027. They even bought some corn for 2028. So, they already started to see corn at value prices. And, you know, we're at a value compared to where we were at last week. So I'd expect more of the same if these uh importers can step up and buy more corn. It would be a really positive sign. And if China were to step in and buy some corn, I think that would be almost uh like a black swan event. I think I don't think the market's anticipating China really buying any corn at this point. They've been slow to to buy anything outside of soybeans and last couple weeks they've been really slow to buy soybeans as well. We're getting into the big export season for soybeans. Typically we export most of the soybeans for the marketing year um from from mid to late October through November and then into December before exports really start to fall off in January. And we've been exporting a lot of a lot of soybeans to to China to start the marketing year, but um there's still a lot to be done to hit that 25 million metric ton goal. They're they're about halfway purchased for that and they've shipped just shy of a million metric tons so far. So, um, need to continue to to chip away at that on the corn side of things. Um, exports so far this year, actual shipments have been phenomenal. Um, they they point to a beat of the USDA export estimate. Yes, the the sales are a little bit well, the sales are below what they were at a year ago, but the shipments have been really good so far. And we saw a bit of that adjustment in in Friday's report from USDA anticipating some of those higher exports. So, expect more of the same on on that regard. And if prices kind of hang out where they're at right now, I'd expect these importers to continue to step in and buy. Um, typical importers of Black Sea grain, um, from a lot throughout Asia and parts of North Africa, people that typically import grain from Ukraine and Russia, they've been really slow to to buy any grain. They've been basically running off of stock piles. So, if they were to step in and purchase any corn from the US, that'd be another kind of unexpected um off foot for some of this anticipated increased production. So, I think that would be a really positive sign as well. And, you know, we are the the gold standard in in terms of pricing. So I would think that as the Board of Trade trades lower, we're going to be seeing increased world use in general. And if that pairs with what we anticipate is going to be a much smaller crop than USDA pegged the crop, that could be a big bullish catalyst down the road. Indeed. So, uh, did want to bring up, uh, you know, wheat. Uh, a lot of news over the weekend around uh, Russia and Ukraine. Uh, President Trump saying that uh, an energy ceasefire was in effect. Um, Ukraine almost immediately saying that Russia was continuing to attack uh, gas and power facilities and that it would only, you know, agree to do so if uh, if if Russia halted its attacks, et cetera. Um, what does that mean for wheat here and and I guess grain shipments out of the Black Sea overall? Um, I guess just if if we don't see any sort of a real let up in in the fighting there, Hillari. Yeah, I think the infrastructure there is just, um, it's down for a minute. Um, it's going to be a while for, uh, that situation to be overcome. Uh, I don't, I don't foresee that, um, in in the near future. I don't foresee a big movement of of grain from either from either country or from the Black Sea just because infrastructure. There's been so much damage, um, and it continues. It's just, um, it's just a it's a long drawn out situation and I don't, I don't see an end in sight. And I I'm pretty sure the market doesn't either. Um, it's, you know, wheat's kind of has moved lower just, I think just because it got it got kind of tired and it needed a catalyst to to continue to drive it higher and nothing really new had kind of surfaced, um, to push that, um, to push it higher, but nothing's really changed either. Um, so, you know, uh, global grain flows are definitely at risk here for the foreseeable future. Right. Yeah, I know, uh, we did see diesel futures backing off here a little bit, but uh, I think there's a lot of, um, still a lot of question marks around what the deal that that President Trump announced Friday, uh, to bring to use some sanctions and bring more Russian diesel on the global market, what that's going to actually mean, the the amounts, uh, that were touted, uh, not really that large relative to uh, to to global demand. Um, but uh, let's see what we're seeing some some psychological effect maybe a little bit here, uh, to kick off the week. Um, moving on to cattle, uh, saw a pretty firm performance last week. Feeders, uh, seemed on Friday in particular to react to the uh, to the drop in corn prices, uh, but uh, and and maybe, I don't know, is there I guess uh, any previous nervousness over the reopening of the border, maybe that's passed, but uh, what uh, what did you make of of the cattle performance last week, Lane? Yeah, really impressive close on Friday. We basically been trading sideways for the past three weeks and Friday we broke up and out of that sideways trading range. We had a a bullish technical breakout on the daily bar chart. Now, follow through is going to be really key today. I think like you mentioned, the sharply lower corn prices on Friday helped feed the cattle bulls and they helped push those prices to those highs. But once you get a technical breakout on the daily bar chart, kind of it all goes out the window and bulls really need to follow through to capitalize on that gain on Friday. We saw really slow cash trade going into Friday last week and we're looking at about even with where last or the the prior week's average ended up. And, you know, the cash market continues to bleed lower and it's going to be really hard for futures to work higher without the cash market participating. And right now we're at $8 premiums to to the cash market right now with December futures about 227, last week cash about 219. So, need to see a reversal there, otherwise, um, those gains are at risk. And typically, we see the cash market lead futures, but sometimes, um, we see these big pushes in futures and it ultimately leads to a a change in direction in the cash market. So that's what we'll be looking looking for here to to start the week to see how cash trades finished up to end the week last week. Um, some Friday afternoon auctions could have seen some sharply higher cash trade, but uh, at least to start out this week, I'd like to see some some higher cash trade to help help fill fill that recent rally. And I think a lot of Friday's push higher ended up just correlating with those those lower corn prices. Feeders have been kind of leading the charge here more recently. Right. And Hillari, what uh, what's going on with hogs here? More contract lows, cash still seems to be uh, weak. Um, what's it going to take to turn things around? Yeah, you know, production just continues to hang in there. Uh, and it it's pressuring cutout, it's pressuring, you know, cash. And so we really need to see a pullback in that. Um, uh, and, you know, we we really, we've seen kind of the herd, you know, retract a bit, but but weights have just been very strong and that's really continued to pile on, you know, or or produce production. And so, so yeah, really we just need to see kind of a pullback there. Um, and it's it's a pretty ugly chart. Uh, it feels like, you know, it's never going to stop going down, but uh, there will be, it will turn at some point. But again, uh, production's kind of the key, the key driver here. So. Right. Okay, well, we've covered a lot of ground and uh, I think it's going to be obviously a a really big week uh for markets here, both on the grain and the livestock side. So, uh, Lane, Hillari, thanks a bunch for your insights there. Thanks again to Zach Zignula for production support and thank you for watching and listening to the Pro Farmer Podcast. Thanks for joining us. We'll return next week with another episode of the Pro Farmer Podcast. And remember, everything talked about today is updated throughout the week on ProFarmer.com and in this Friday's Pro Farmer Newsletter.",
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