StoneX - Run #4090
Reporting Date: 2026-10-12
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 12, 2026 at 11:17 AM
- Completed At
- October 12, 2026 at 11:18 AM
- Duration
- 1 minute
- Headline
- Base Metals Tighten as Zinc Smelters Now Pay to Process Ore
Data Preview
{
"title": "Base Metals Tighten as Zinc Smelters Now Pay to Process Ore",
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"source": "youtube",
"channel": {
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
"title": "StoneX",
"handle": "stonex_official",
"channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
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"matched": true,
"insights": {
"risks": [
"Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine) keeping global tensions fraught",
"High energy, freight, and raw material costs starting to bite",
"ECB and Federal Reserve tilting towards a tightening monetary policy bias",
"Sticky inflation readings",
"Global manufacturing risks skewed to the downside towards the end of the year",
"China's ongoing struggle to boost domestic demand",
"Further deterioration in China's property market",
"Lack of clearer evidence of improving property, construction, and household confidence in China",
"Zinc smelters facing loss-making conditions if production cuts do not materialize",
"Price volatility in zinc due to investors' overstretched net long positions",
"Downside risks for copper from weaker Chinese manufacturing, sticky inflation, and hawkish central banks",
"The refined copper market being in surplus, with balances and cost structure not justifying current levels",
"Limited evidence of an acute shortage of tin on a refined basis, despite falling exchange stocks",
"Re-escalation in the Gulf or slippage in Middle Eastern smelter restart timelines impacting aluminum prices",
"Thin inventory in aluminum",
"Impact of El Nino on nickel production and Indonesian R-cap supplementary quotas"
],
"topics": [
"Base Metals",
"Market Outlook",
"Macroeconomics",
"Geopolitics",
"Inflation",
"Monetary Policy",
"China Economy",
"Manufacturing PMI",
"Zinc",
"Copper",
"Tin",
"Aluminum",
"Lead",
"Nickel",
"Supply and Demand",
"Mine Production",
"Refining Charges",
"Inventories",
"Exports",
"Investor Sentiment",
"Price Volatility",
"El Nino",
"Energy Costs",
"Tariffs",
"Decarbonization",
"Digitalization",
"AI",
"Property Market",
"Construction",
"Household Confidence"
],
"summary": "The video provides a Q4 market outlook for base metals, noting a macroeconomic backdrop that has soured due to geopolitical tensions and tightening monetary policies. China's economic struggles to boost domestic demand are highlighted, with policy announcements aimed at stabilization rather than powerful growth. The outlook for individual metals like Zinc, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, Lead, and Nickel is discussed, considering supply conditions, demand trends, and investor sentiment.",
"entities": [
{
"name": "Natalie Scott-Gray",
"type": "person",
"context": "Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX"
},
{
"name": "StoneX",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Employer of the analyst"
},
{
"name": "US",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical tensions, refined copper imports"
},
{
"name": "Iran",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical tensions, Iran war"
},
{
"name": "Russia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical tensions"
},
{
"name": "Ukraine",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical tensions"
},
{
"name": "ECB",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Tilting towards tightening bias"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Expected to increase rates"
},
{
"name": "China",
"type": "region",
"context": "Largest market for base metals, economic struggles, policy announcements, zinc ore imports, copper demand, manufacturing"
},
{
"name": "Antamina",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Major zinc mine in Peru"
},
{
"name": "Peru",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of Antamina mine"
},
{
"name": "Red Dog",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Major zinc mine in Alaska"
},
{
"name": "Alaska",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of Red Dog mine"
},
{
"name": "Kapushi",
"type": "organization",
"context": "World's highest grade mine in DRC"
},
{
"name": "DRC",
"type": "region",
"context": "Location of Kapushi mine"
},
{
"name": "Middle East",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical disruption, smelter restart timelines"
},
{
"name": "India",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical disruption"
},
{
"name": "Australia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Geopolitical disruption"
},
{
"name": "LME",
"type": "organization",
"context": "Ongoing back-gradation, zinc/lead speculative positions, aluminum stocks"
},
{
"name": "Comex",
"type": "organization",
"context": "All-time high net longs in copper"
},
{
"name": "Indonesia",
"type": "region",
"context": "Tin exports and refined production, nickel ore policy"
},
{
"name": "Zinc",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Best performing base metal in Q3, supply conditions, refining charges, market deficit"
},
{
"name": "Copper",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Second best performer in Q3, new price floor, supply tightness, hard asset appeal, refined market surplus"
},
{
"name": "Tin",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Third best performer in Q3, best YTD, record high, mine supply, market deficit"
},
{
"name": "Aluminum",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Fourth best performer in Q3, market deficit, low inventories, Russian origin stocks"
},
{
"name": "Lead",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Weakest performing base metal, souring backdrop, high stocks, net short speculative positions"
},
{
"name": "Nickel",
"type": "commodity",
"context": "Worst performing base metal in Q3, falling prices, bearish sentiment"
},
{
"name": "El Nino",
"type": "concept",
"context": "Squeezing refined copper output, impact on nickel"
},
{
"name": "Strait of Hormuz",
"type": "region",
"context": "Effectively closed, impacting aluminum risks"
}
],
"sentiment": "mixed",
"confidence": 1.0,
"key_points": [
{
"point": "The macroeconomic backdrop for base metals has soured over the course of this year due to geopolitical tensions and rising energy, freight, and raw material costs.",
"timestamp": "00:00:10",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Both the ECB and the Federal Reserve are tilting towards a tightening monetary policy bias.",
"timestamp": "00:00:33",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by a further 25 basis points by December, underpinning the dollar.",
"timestamp": "00:00:43",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Global manufacturing has proven resilient, possibly due to front-loading and stockpiling in reaction to the Iran war, but risks are skewed to the downside towards the end of the year.",
"timestamp": "00:00:49",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "China's August economic data signals an ongoing struggle to boost domestic demand, with heavy reliance on AI-related exports and weaker year-to-date readings for GDP, industrial production, and retail sales.",
"timestamp": "00:01:04",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "China's recent policy announcements are suspected to stabilize growth and prevent further deterioration in the property market, rather than generating a powerful acceleration in activity.",
"timestamp": "00:01:30",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "For base metals, China's policies should provide a floor under demand and reduce the risk of a sharper downturn, but a broad-based recovery is unlikely without clearer evidence of improving property, construction, and household confidence.",
"timestamp": "00:02:00",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "StoneX retains a near-term bearish to neutral view on market sentiment for base metals.",
"timestamp": "00:02:16",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Zinc was the best performing base metal of Q3 with gains of 7.8%, placing it as the second best performing base metal year-to-date, up 20.2%.",
"timestamp": "00:02:21",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Zinc price support has been driven by tightening supply conditions, with mine production from major mines like Antamina (Peru) and Red Dog (Alaska) declining.",
"timestamp": "00:02:33",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Tightening zinc ore availability has resulted in refining and treatment charges falling into negative territory to their lowest level on record.",
"timestamp": "00:03:03",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Imports of zinc ore into China declined 15.1% year-on-year in July.",
"timestamp": "00:03:14",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Zinc price direction for year-end is likely to hinge on the resilience of smelters (especially in China), the pace of Chinese exports of refined copper, and the influence from investors who have yet to exit overstretched net long positions.",
"timestamp": "00:03:18",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The zinc market is already expected to post a deficit this year.",
"timestamp": "00:03:39",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Copper closed Q3 as the second best performer, up 7.7%, and enters Q4 having found a new floor around $14,000 per ton.",
"timestamp": "00:04:17",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The copper market spent roughly eight weeks in back-gradation over the summer, a record-breaking dislocation in August.",
"timestamp": "00:04:30",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Three forces underpinning copper's move are US Section 232 uncertainty, genuine supply tightness (record low treatment/refining charges, sulfuric acid shortages, strengthening El Nino), and copper's appeal as a hard asset due to its use in electrification, digitalization, and AI.",
"timestamp": "00:04:37",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "US refined copper imports averaged over 200,000 tons a month in July and August, lifting US cathode inventories to about 1.5 million tons and draining stocks outside the US to below 120,000 tons.",
"timestamp": "00:04:45",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Near-term, StoneX remains constructive for copper prices, supported by ongoing supply risks, seasonal Chinese demand, and continued tariff uncertainty.",
"timestamp": "00:05:35",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The refined copper market is in surplus, and neither the balances nor the cost structure justify current price levels.",
"timestamp": "00:05:46",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Speculative money is overcrowded to the long side in copper, with September's record coinciding with all-time high Comex net longs, leading to expectations of historically elevated volatility.",
"timestamp": "00:05:55",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Tin closed Q3 as the third best performing base metal and remains the best performer year-to-date, up over 30%, having posted a record high of $57,960 per ton on June 2nd.",
"timestamp": "00:06:15",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Tin price support has largely stemmed from disappointing mine supply in key producing regions, set against stable demand, with strong semiconductor and AI-related activity offsetting weakness in traditional end-use sectors.",
"timestamp": "00:06:31",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Indonesia's tin exports from January to July are down about 20%, and refined production is set to fall by 10% this year.",
"timestamp": "00:06:47",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The tin market is set to post a third-quarter deficit.",
"timestamp": "00:07:10",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Aluminum closed Q3 as the fourth best performing base metal, matching its year-to-date performance, having climbed off its summer lows to consolidate above $3,150 per ton.",
"timestamp": "00:07:12",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "The aluminum market is set to post around a 650,000 ton deficit, with global inventories falling to about 42 days worth of consumption, their lowest level since before the financial crisis.",
"timestamp": "00:07:33",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "95% of LME aluminum stocks are Russian in origin, and there is little incentive to deliver into warehouses given high regional premiums, leaving little readily available material outside of China.",
"timestamp": "00:07:44",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Near-term risks for aluminum are firmly to the upside, with any re-escalation in the Gulf or slippage in Middle Eastern smelter restart timelines set to underpin prices against thin inventory.",
"timestamp": "00:07:58",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "A strong spillover from high copper prices continues to pull speculative length into aluminum, setting $3,000 per ton as a robust psychological support level.",
"timestamp": "00:08:18",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Lead failed to hold onto gains in Q3 and remains the weakest performing base metal year-to-date.",
"timestamp": "00:08:33",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Lead's price performance reflects a souring backdrop for traditional industrial metal demand and a somewhat protected supply outlook, with two-thirds of supply coming from secondary sources.",
"timestamp": "00:08:39",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Global lead stocks are hovering around their highest level since 2012, and it is the only base metal to hold net short speculative positions across the LME and Shanghai Future Exchange.",
"timestamp": "00:08:54",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "Nickel was the worst performing base metal in Q3, with prices falling into a lower range of $15,900 to $17,300 per ton, down from the Q2 average of about $18,200 per ton.",
"timestamp": "00:09:09",
"importance": "high"
},
{
"point": "Bearish nickel sentiment has primarily arisen from rising visible exchange inventories (posting 10-year highs this month) and tightening Indonesian ore policy (R-cap) and high sulfur costs.",
"timestamp": "00:09:27",
"importance": "medium"
},
{
"point": "The largest swing factor for nickel price direction remains the size and timing of Indonesian R-cap supplementary quotas, in addition to the impact of El Nino over the next nine months.",
"timestamp": "00:09:43",
"importance": "high"
}
],
"trade_ideas": [],
"price_levels": [
{
"note": "New floor found",
"value": "14,000 $/ton",
"instrument": "Copper",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"note": "Lifted to about",
"value": "1.5 million tons",
"instrument": "US cathode inventories",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Drained to below",
"value": "120,000 tons",
"instrument": "Stocks outside US",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Record high on June 2nd",
"value": "57,960 $/ton",
"instrument": "Tin",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Consolidated above",
"value": "3,150 $/ton",
"instrument": "Aluminum",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Robust psychological support level",
"value": "3,000 $/ton",
"instrument": "Aluminum",
"level_type": "support"
},
{
"note": "Lower range",
"value": "15,900 $/ton",
"instrument": "Nickel",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Lower range",
"value": "17,300 $/ton",
"instrument": "Nickel",
"level_type": "other"
},
{
"note": "Q2 average",
"value": "18,200 $/ton",
"instrument": "Nickel",
"level_type": "other"
}
],
"time_horizon": "short_term",
"matches_filter": true,
"data_references": [
{
"value": "Varies, generally below 50 for Eurozone, mixed for Global/USA/China",
"metric": "PMI Manufacturing Readings",
"period": "Monthly, Q1 2025 - Q3 2026",
"source": "Bloomberg"
},
{
"value": "Falling into negative territory, lowest on record",
"metric": "Treatment & Refining Charges",
"period": "Jul-09 to Jul-24",
"source": "Bloomberg"
},
{
"value": "Varies, generally positive",
"metric": "LME 3M Copper Price & Nasdaq 100 Index Correlation",
"period": "Apr-10 to Apr-25",
"source": "Bloomberg"
},
{
"value": "Varies, Tin up over 30%, Lead weakest",
"metric": "LME 3M Base Metal Price Performance 2026",
"period": "Jan-26 to Oct-26",
"source": "Bloomberg"
},
{
"value": "2.5%",
"metric": "Global GDP growth",
"period": "2026",
"source": "World Bank"
}
],
"match_reasoning": "The video provides a comprehensive Q4 market outlook for base metals, discussing macroeconomic factors, supply/demand dynamics, and price performance for individual metals."
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"video_id": "fL438F1L1hI",
"video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL438F1L1hI",
"transcript": "I'm Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst at StoneX, and this is our Q4 market outlook for base metals. Focusing on the macroeconomic backdrop for the complex, it appears to have soured over the course of this year. Firstly, failed talks of peace between the US and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine, keep geopolitical tensions fraught on a global basis, with the reality of high energy, freight, and raw material costs starting to bite, with both the ECB and the Federal Reserve tilting towards a tightening bias in the months ahead. In our base case following sticky inflation readings of late, we expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates by a further 25 basis points by December, underpinning the dollar. Meanwhile, despite global manufacturing having proven resilient over the year, we suspect front-loading and stockpiling in reaction to the Iran war, a key driver, with risks skewed to the downside towards the end of the year. Looking to China, our largest market for base metals, August hard economic data readings have signaled the country's ongoing struggle to boost domestic demand, and its heavy reliance on AI-related exports, with weaker year-to-date year-on-year readings for GDP, industrial production, and retail sales, while deepening declines were posted for property sales and fixed asset investment. Despite this backdrop having prompted a broad range of policy announcements over the past two months, covering consumption, investment, housing, mortgage lending, developer financing, and liquidity support, we suspect their main purpose is to stabilize growth, support selected areas of demand, and prevent further deterioration in the property market, rather than generating a powerful acceleration in activity. For base metals, this should provide a floor under demand and reduce the risk of a sharper downturn, but it is unlikely to trigger a broad-based recovery without clearer evidence of improving property, construction, and household confidence. As a result, we retain a near-term bearish to neutral view on market sentiment. Zinc was the best performing base metal of Q3 with gains of 7.8%, placing zinc as the second best performing base metal year-to-date, up 20.2%. Price support has been driven by tightening supply conditions, with mine production from major mines such as Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska, declining on all grades, late-life production, and mine plan adjustments. Meanwhile, despite record output at the world's highest grade mine, Kapushi in the DRC, natural disasters, extreme weather and geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, India and Australia have limited output. As a result, tightening ore availability has resulted in refining and treatment charges falling into negative territory to their lowest level on record, with imports of ore into China declining 15.1% year-on-year in July. Looking to year-end, zinc price direction is likely to hinge on three key factors. Firstly, the resilience of smelters, particularly in China, will production cuts start to materialize, given producers a loss-making, while byproduct credits face headwinds from rising energy costs. Note, we already expect the zinc market will post a deficit this year. Secondly, the pace of Chinese exports of refined copper to the ex-Chinese market. With the export window currently open, we are forecasting 30,000 tons in August and 40,000 tons in September, which will only modestly ease the ongoing LME back-gradation. Thirdly, the influence from investors, which have yet to exit their overstretched net long positions, set to result in price volatility. Here, gross positions to the long and to the short side have expanded of late, indicating a level of uncertainty for the outlook. Copper closed Q3 as the second best performer up 7.7%, and it enters Q4 having found a new floor around $14,000 per ton, with the market having spent roughly eight weeks in a back-gradation over the summer, a record-breaking dislocation in August. We see three forces underpinning the move. So firstly, US Section 232 uncertainty, which has driven refined imports averaging over 200,000 tons a month in July and August, and lifted US cathode inventories to about 1.5 million tons, draining stocks outside of the US, to below 120,000 tons. Second, we have genuine supply tightness. Record low treatment and refining charges, second half of the year sulfuric acid shortages, and a strengthening El Nino. This is squeezing refined output, just as the mine supply disruption story persists. Thirdly, copper's appeal is a hard asset, given recent bond market turmoil and ongoing fiat currency concerns, given its use in electrification, digitalization and AI, which has attracted substantial speculative length. Near-term, we remain constructive for copper prices, supported by ongoing supply risks, seasonal Chinese demand, and continued tariff uncertainty. However, we cannot ignore the fact that the refined market is in surplus, and neither the balances nor the cost structure justify current levels. Indeed with speculative money overcrowded to the long side, September's record coincided with the all-time high Comex net longs, we do expect volatility to stay historically elevated, alongside downside risks from weaker Chinese manufacturing, sticky inflation, and hawkish central banks. Now Tin closed Q3 as the third best performing base metal, although it remains on a year-to-date basis the best performer up over 30%, having posted a record high of $57,960 per ton on the 2nd of June. Over the course of the last quarter, price support has largely stemmed from disappointing mine supply in key producing regions, set against stable demand, in which strong semiconductor and AI-related activity offset weakness in traditional end-use sectors. Indonesia has been a focal point, with January to July exports down about 20%, while refined production is set to fall by 10% this year. Despite limited evidence of an acute shortage of tin on a refined basis, with the LME forward curve in contango, visible exchange stocks have fallen sharply from their early June peak, with the market set to post a third quarter in deficit. Aluminum closed Q3 as the fourth best performing base metal, matching its current year-to-date performance, having climbed off its summer lows to consolidate above $3,150 per ton. In our current view, prices are reflective of the tightness within the underlying fundamentals, with the market set to post around a 650,000 ton deficit, while global inventories have fallen to about 42 days worth of consumption, their lowest level since before the financial crisis. Furthermore, with 95% of LME stocks Russian in origin, and little incentive to deliver into warehouses given high regional premiums, there remains little deliverable cushion for readily available material outside of China. In the months ahead with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, and energy costs elevated, the near-term balance of risks sits firmly to the upside, with any re-escalation in the Gulf or slippage in Middle Eastern smelter restart timelines, set to underpin prices, against such thin inventory. Meanwhile, a strong spillover from high copper prices continues to pull speculative length into aluminum, in turn setting $3,000 per ton as a robust psychological support level through the balance of this year. Lead failed to hold onto gains in Q3 and remains the weakest performing base metal year-to-date. Lead's price performance reflects a souring backdrop for traditional industrial metal demand, set against a somewhat protected supply outlook, given lead's unique fundamentals, in which two-thirds of supply comes from secondary sources. As things stand, global lead stocks are hovering around their highest level since 2012, and it is the only base metal to hold net short speculative positions across the LME and the Shanghai Future Exchange. And finally, Nickel was the worst performing base metal in Q3 with prices falling into a lower range of $15,900 to $17,300 per ton over the period, down from the Q2 average of about $18,200 per ton. Bearish sentiment has primarily arisen from rising visible exchange inventories, posting 10-year highs this month, while tightening Indonesian ore policy, R-cap, and high sulfur costs support only provided a floor. The largest swing factor for price direction remains the size and the timing of Indonesian R-cap supplementary quotas, in addition to the impact of El Nino over the next nine months. Thank you for watching, and please like and subscribe for more videos.",
"description": "The base metals outlook rests on supply, not demand, as negative zinc treatment charges, copper backwardation and thin aluminum stocks prop up prices.\n\nNatalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst EMEA & Asia, walks through copper, zinc, tin, aluminum, lead and nickel against a souring macro backdrop.\n\nU.S. Section 232 tariff uncertainty pulled refined copper into the United States and drained stocks elsewhere, while global aluminum inventories sit at their lowest since before the financial crisis. China's stimulus aims to stabilize growth rather than revive metals demand.\n\nDownload the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/commodities-outlook/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=qr_code&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26 \n\nDiscover Actionable Metals Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence:\nhttps://shop.stonex.com/products/stonex-essential-bundle?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26_sxtv_natalie_scott_gray \n\n00:00 - Base Metals Meet Macro Gloom\n01:08 - China Stimulus Sets a Floor\n02:26 - Zinc Treatment Charges Flip\n04:32 - Copper's Record Backwardation\n06:30 - Indonesia Squeezes Tin Supply\n07:29 - Aluminum Inventories Run Dry\n08:50 - Lead Bucks the Supply Squeeze\n09:26 - Nickel Hinges on Indonesia\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#StoneX #NatalieScottGray #Zinc #Copper\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
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"published_at": "2026-10-12T11:01:13Z",
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"reporting_date": "2026-10-12",
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