Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 11, 2026 at 09:17 PM

Completed At

October 11, 2026 at 09:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

QLD producer confidence fires on forecast while NSW remains subdued

Data Preview

{
  "title": "QLD producer confidence fires on forecast while NSW remains subdued",
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    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
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  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
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  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Lack of rain in Northern New South Wales could continue to weigh on sentiment.",
      "Rain events can quickly change the supply picture for feedlots.",
      "Cattle could \"blow out the top of grids\" if producers hold them too long due to good weight gain."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Australian Cattle Market",
      "Australian Beef Market",
      "Weather Impact on Livestock",
      "Cattle Supply and Demand",
      "Slaughter Volumes",
      "Export Markets",
      "Feedlot Operations",
      "Cattle Pricing and Spreads",
      "Forward Contracting",
      "Cold Storage"
    ],
    "summary": "The Australian cattle and beef market is experiencing mixed conditions. Queensland producers are showing increased confidence due to forecast rain, leading to stronger demand for lighter cattle. In contrast, New South Wales producers remain subdued due to persistent dry weather, impacting sentiment and cattle prices. Processors are facing economic headwinds, but anticipate a strong Q4 as they process more cattle to capitalize on the January 1 quota reset, despite limited cold storage space.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Ripley Atkinson",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Australian Meats and Livestock Manager for StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Nasdaq-listed global financial services network"
      },
      {
        "name": "Australia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Overall market focus"
      },
      {
        "name": "Queensland",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Weather, producer confidence, market dynamics"
      },
      {
        "name": "New South Wales",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Weather, producer sentiment, market dynamics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Victoria",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Recent rainfall"
      },
      {
        "name": "Clermont",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Speaker's travel location"
      },
      {
        "name": "Dubbo",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Reference point for Northern NSW"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Export market, quota hit"
      },
      {
        "name": "South Korea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Export market"
      },
      {
        "name": "Angus cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Specific cattle type discussed for pricing"
      },
      {
        "name": "Feeder cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Key market segment"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cold storage",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Storage capacity for meat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Freight",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Cost of transporting cattle/meat"
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel prices",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Impact on freight costs"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "A storm system is developing in Queensland at the back end of this week, which is a major point of interest for the market.",
        "timestamp": "01:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Recent rainfall in Victoria and Southern New South Wales was well-received, leading to a strong market response.",
        "timestamp": "01:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Northern New South Wales (north of Dubbo) continues to miss out on rain, which is weighing on market sentiment.",
        "timestamp": "02:18",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Feedlots are currently inducting plenty of lighter cattle, which is a seasonal trend for Northern New South Wales and Queensland yards.",
        "timestamp": "02:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "A rain event can very quickly change the supply picture for feedlots.",
        "timestamp": "04:25",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market in Queensland has been in a holding pattern from a feedlot perspective, waiting on rain to eventuate.",
        "timestamp": "04:34",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Good numbers of cull cows from autumn calving herds are expected to come to market shortly, providing a solid boost for Southern processors.",
        "timestamp": "05:05",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Weekly slaughter rates have been on a gradual decline since late May, bottoming out a week or ten days ago.",
        "timestamp": "06:17",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Processors are facing economic headwinds, particularly after the China quota was hit in mid-June and export market conditions became soft.",
        "timestamp": "06:33",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Q4 slaughter results are expected to be strong as processors increase kill rates to capture the January 1 quota reset opportunity.",
        "timestamp": "08:15",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Cold storage space in Brisbane is very limited, with processors and exporters having loaded up product, waiting for the January 1 quota reset.",
        "timestamp": "10:47",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The forecast rain in Queensland has significantly increased producer demand.",
        "timestamp": "11:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "New South Wales producers are uninspired due to the lack of rain, leading to a lack of confidence in buying light cattle.",
        "timestamp": "14:57",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Upside pressure in the Queensland light cattle market is expected to continue this week and in the short term as producers react to the forecast.",
        "timestamp": "15:16",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The price spread for Northern Black Steer Angus delivered to Northern NSW/Southern Queensland yards is +60 cents, while Southern Black Steers are +20 cents against the Queensland flatback price.",
        "timestamp": "16:46",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "This 40-cent price difference encourages northern feedlots to buy cattle in southern markets.",
        "timestamp": "17:43",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Feedlots have lengthened their book on buying cattle forwards to hedge against the risk of storms appearing at this time of year.",
        "timestamp": "20:58",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Current operating range",
        "value": "5.20 to 5.40 cents a kilo",
        "instrument": "Southern Black Steer Angus",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Price point below which it's difficult to source numbers",
        "value": "under 5.10",
        "instrument": "Queensland feedlot cattle",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "166,000 head (actual ~210,000-215,000 head)",
        "metric": "Slaughter volume",
        "period": "Late May",
        "source": "NLRS (National Livestock Reporting Service)"
      },
      {
        "value": "fell 2% (about 45,000 head)",
        "metric": "Year-on-year slaughter numbers",
        "period": "Q3",
        "source": "NLRS"
      },
      {
        "value": "over 2.5 million head (highest since 1978)",
        "metric": "Quarterly slaughter volume",
        "period": "Q2",
        "source": "ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics)"
      },
      {
        "value": "+60 cents (against Downs flatback price)",
        "metric": "Northern Black Steer Angus price spread",
        "source": "Argus Media"
      },
      {
        "value": "+20 cents (against QLD Downs flatback price)",
        "metric": "Southern Black Steer Angus price spread",
        "source": "Argus Media"
      }
    ],
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  "video_id": "lj7tBGY1M0Q",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj7tBGY1M0Q",
  "transcript": "Well, hello, and welcome back to another episode of the StoneX Australian Cattle and Beef Market Report. My name is Ripley Atkinson. I'm the Australian Meats and Livestock Manager for StoneX based in Sydney, where we're developing price risk management tools for the Australian livestock industry to help the sector manage market and price volatility with our Australian feeder cattle forward contract. We're brought to you by StoneX Group, a Nasdaq-listed, global financial services network with 100 years of experience in global commodity markets. Remember that the trading of derivatives, such as futures, options, and over-the-counter products or swaps, may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Today, into some markets. I'm a lot more organized this episode than I was during BeefX, but before getting into the episode, I'm going to be traveling through Central Queensland based out of Clermont between Tuesday the 27th and Thursday the 29th of October at the end of this month. So, if you're about in that CQ area, feel free to give me a ring on 0427 417 803. If you're about up there, would love to catch up or conversely find my email and send me an email. I'll start with weather today. I think the big talking point for me anyway this week, or at least to to monitor, is this system storms developing at the back end of this week in in Queensland. That's the the big one. Obviously, the change came through about 10 days ago in Victoria, Southern New South Wales was well received. Markets responded quite strongly to that, but this system in Queensland is is the really interesting one. We saw last week prices improve sharply off the back of the models starting to acknowledge this rain developing, and you can see producers not jumping the gun, but wanting to get in early before the cattle would be, or in their perception, be dearer next week. New South Wales, north of Dubbo, it continues to obviously miss out, and I think from a weather perspective, that is weighing on sentiment. You know, last week, and on the box for that matter, prices in, you know, north of Dubbo in New South Wales just not that they were still sliding, basically, and and I think that's got a lot to do with this this weather situation those producers are presented with. Into supply, looking at feeders. Feedlots inducting plenty of lighter cattle at the minute. It's not uncommon for this time of year, particularly Northern New South Wales, Queensland yards, I'm I'm talking about. It's it's pretty seasonal before, you know, you start to get some early storms and a bit of improvement in weight gain and performance out of stock, but it's this last little window as as the uh season's quite dry before it does start to improve, but there's certainly been acknowledgement, I think, particularly from producers with cattle either on the road on adjustment or have been bought from sort of out of out of an area in Western Queensland. They haven't done as well as what a lot of people were hoping. If they've, you know, gone to do a trade on adjustment this year, particularly those those producers in Northern New South Wales that either sent cattle away or bought cattle on adjustment in Western Queensland, yeah, they just haven't performed as strongly as as people would have hoped. And that's obviously contributing here a little bit to these feedlots acknowledging that they are inducting cattle a little lighter than what they probably expected. You know, there is a decent body of feed there in Western Queensland, but I think the point that a number of people have raised to me is it just doesn't have any substance. It doesn't have any go about it, and the cattle if they're not supported by, you know, licks or supplements, they're just sort of holding on is probably what you'd call it. Generally, supply for feedlots at the minute is not too bad, but they are acknowledging, or conversations I'm having with livestock managers are acknowledging that a rain event can change that supply picture very quickly. You know, the last, I would say, probably month is there's it feels as if the market's just been in a bit of a holding pattern in Queensland from a feedlot perspective. It hasn't really moved in either direction. It's it has softened a touch, but not really by a lot, and you I just get the sense both the producers and the feedlots, they they know to expect rain at this time of year, and it just feels like it's sort of it doesn't know which way to go because it's it's waiting on this rain to sort of eventuate. Moving beyond the feeders from a supply perspective, a good one to point out, castrage cows for autumn carving herds. We'll start to see good numbers of those, you know, coal cows from both an age and fertility perspective come to market shortly, and obviously that will be quite a quite a solid boost for those Southern processors, you know, seeing more supply come forwards, which will limit the need for them to have to operate in those Northern markets. We know they've obviously pulled back a fair bit in the north recently. I think the diesel prices put a bit of a a stop on that, but uh yeah, that that uptick that those areas expected this time of year for autumn carving cows that are cold will be will be welcome for those uh Southern processors. On the topic of uh processors, I think a good one to have a look at at the minute is where slaughter volumes are at. Since really late May, when slaughter based on NLRS hit about 166,000 head, when you convert that to actual numbers based on the reporting difference between the NLRS and the ABS actual figures, that equates to about 210, 215,000 head for that week. It's been on a gradual decline. Weekly slaughter or kill rates really that bottomed out a week or 10 days ago. And I think what that story is telling us is probably a bigger discussion around the the economic headwinds processors are facing, particularly post sort of mid-June when the China quota was hit and meat trading conditions in the export markets became quite soft or challenged. I think it's a it's a like granted winter is a difficult time of year for Southern Australia source cattle. There's no question about it, and that's why we've seen so much expansion of plants down south because they're, you know, increasingly being dominated by grain-fed production to move away from the seasonality of that sort of grass-based system when it gets tight. But, you know, it is difficult in winter, and you generally see that softening in Southern Australian plants or weekly kill volumes regardless, but I think this year and that continued sustained decline is a there's probably a couple of things to it. I think the first one is processors thought supply would stay a bit stronger than it has, but clearly the liquidation out of Northern New South Wales at the start of the year put a a lid on that pretty quickly. And the second thing, of course, is these challenging meat trading conditions, which is limiting, you know, their willingness and interest to really make sure that their systems are operating or or the facilities and plants are operating at 100%. Obviously, the biggest priority is making sure their staff are employed, and they have work in front of them all the time, but obviously there is there has been these challenging conditions from a meat perspective, and I think it's just important to acknowledge that, you know, gradual decline we've seen from the peak in May. Looking beyond that, though, I, you know, I I do believe we may see Q4 results or this quarter into the end of end of the year before shutdowns begin in about mid-December perform quite strongly, and I know supply chains have already made prior moves to set themselves up, you know, freezing product down in cold storage, et cetera, for first of January when those safeguard quota limits reset, but I do think we'll see a really strong result in Q4 of this year as more cattle are processed and and the kill ramps up, you know, to capture that opportunity. First of January represents. It's obviously then going to flow through to the hastening of when those quota limits are hit again, you know, and they're going to be brought forwards because of the the supply chains and exporters, you know, they've now had 9, 10 months to prepare for 2027's situation, whereas obviously in first of January, when we were told or the market was told this year, it was placed upon them straight away. But now with with time and and a good lead time, I think we are going to see some really strong volumes of grain-fed cattle processed in in Q4 to capture that opportunity. On the actual numbers themselves, now that Q3 has officially ended, I can estimate where we are from a slaughter perspective based on the NLRS numbers and the difference on reporting with or the gap on reporting with the ABS, which is basically the the processors who don't choose to participate with MLA. On my numbers, assuming a difference of about 28%, it looks like year-on-year slaughter numbers fell 2% or about 45,000 head. So you could call it firm, but they are down a touch on last year. We processed on my estimates 2.43 to 4.5 million head of cattle. So it has softened, but if you look at the long-term historical performance, those results are still really strong. We're operating at the 95th percentile on record. So a really pleasing outcome despite that, you know, that softening. From a calendar year perspective, it looks as if quarter two of this year, when we processed over 2.5 million head, or the highest quarterly volume since 1978, that Q2 number looks to be the peak in in slaughter from a calendar year perspective. Lastly, on slaughter and the supply chain, conversations I've had with the market continue to tell me that cold storage space in Brisbane is very, very limited at the minute. Processor exporters have loaded up and have a lot of product sitting in cold storage by the port at the minute, waiting for the opportunity to obviously start moving that product out of Australia into those export markets, China and South Korea, to capture that value and that opportunity. So, how they then balance, you know, full cold storage space at the minute against the desire and the need to obviously ramp the kill up to get more product ready to go, that will be a really interesting dynamic. In terms of cold storage and measuring it, it's nigh on impossible, or I don't know how to do it, but in Australia that is, but it is is something and a theme that's been brought up with the meat end of the market and conversations I've had recently is how full the cold storage space is currently. Onto demand. As I mentioned earlier, or at the start of this episode, this forecast rain in Queensland has really fired producer demand up. As I said, it feels as if the market up there has been waiting for rain, and it's just waiting for a forecast, you know, to to appear or rain to appear on the forecast. You know, last week's market performance, you could see the job kicked on light cattle, and clearly it's producers believing better to go now and get in early than when cattle will be dearer next week. When you compare that to New South Wales, as I mentioned again earlier, you can see there's just a bit of, you know, a a deflated attitude in that that marketplace at the minute. You know, rain hasn't delivered in any, you know, real meaningful way. Spring is obviously such a critical time of year to get good rain, particularly when the weather's a little milder, you know, to encourage good grass growth and and production and performance in cattle, and it just hasn't happened. These dry anomalies have been stacking up on top of each other for a couple of months now. Victoria, after that rain about 10 days ago, which was really widespread across the whole state, and Southern New South Wales for that matter, you know, there is good interest there for light cattle at the minute, and those store sales and any weaners and light cattle sold in in the fat sales have been performing quite well off the back of of that rain. Demand from a feeder perspective, it's pretty sound at present. Little movement either way. They're still getting the cattle they need, but discussions I've had with them continue to acknowledge, you know, this potential of a rain event and what that can do from a supply perspective. Digging into it a little bit, though, those Northern New South Wales and Queensland yards are operating and and chasing, you know, feeders in Southern markets. Any of those weaners that were moved out of there and bought by Southerners or sent on adjustment earlier this year in the first five or six months of this year when it was dry, you know, they are chasing cattle in those those areas because of the price differential, which I'll touch on in a minute, they're now getting a a taxi ride back into those local feedlot areas where they probably would have ended up in anyway if it hadn't been dry. There's plenty of weights in the cattle as well. We obviously have discussed this previously, really good mild winter conditions, pasture growth and production conditions have been very strong, and cattle performance as well on top of that has has been really solid. Looking at the export markets, you know, generally pretty healthy across the board. The addition of China and South Korean interest from a buying perspective is certainly supporting, you know, a little more competitive tension in the market, and that's obviously being appreciated by exporters, processors for that reason because you're bringing more more buyers back in. It's just creating a little bit more demand, but generally across the board, demand's pretty solid. Yeah, in a in a strong position at the minute from that perspective because we're seeing those markets come back into play, and as we move, you know, closer to the end of this year, that will will naturally improve as well. Onto price at a restocker level, I've sort of mentioned it enough, I feel, but yeah, the New South Wales producer, they're just a bit uninspired at present, and that really has been driven by the weather. Confidence is lacking there to participate and operate to buy light cattle. It's just not in their wheelhouse at the minute because of this this lack of rain. Queensland, a very different picture, and, you know, I suspect we may see upside pressure in this light cattle market in Queensland continue this week and in the short term as producers continue to move off the forecast. Not the rain that has fallen because of the the timing of this this event in Queensland, I think you'll continue to see support for light cattle prices. I mentioned it on the previous episode, you know, when rain looked like it was going to appear, you would see the market react. We saw that happen last week, and I think that, you know, there's there's a high chance that will continue as we as we move forwards. Late October and the month of November is the big one I'm watching from a weather perspective. Again, I think you'll see producers and the Queensland market continued to react to the forecast, and same applies for Northern New South Wales when when these systems start to develop in those areas, late October and the month of November, at the start and the end of the month. As those forecasts appear, you'll see see good solid support for light cattle prices off the back of that. Onto feeders, connecting with what I was mentioning earlier about Northern yards operating in the south. Something I haven't spoken about for a while, but if we look at Angus feeders delivered Northern New South Wales, Southern Queensland, spreads or what we call basis, which is the difference basically between the Angus price and the the delivered Downs flatback price. For a Northern Black Steer at the minute, it's plus 60 based on Argus Media reporting. Now, when you compare that to the south, the South spread or Southern Angus feeders against the Queensland Downs flatback Downs price is only plus 20. Why has the Northern Angus price or spread stayed at a wider premium this year? That's all to do with the lack of supply of of Angus feeders in Northern New South Wales, Southern Queensland. They've all obviously left the area. I've mentioned that and spoke about that enough this year. But whereas you look in the south, you'd say, you know, a Southern Angus feeders really operating 520 to 540 cents a kilo. That difference of 40 cents, so it's plus 60 for black steers delivered to Northern New South Wales, Downs yards, whereas Southern black steers are only operating 20 cents above the the Queensland flatback price. The difference of 40 cents there between those two Angus feeder categories is encouraging Northern feedlots to go into Southern markets and chase those cattle. There's plenty of numbers down there, and the the cheaper rates of Southern black steers is certainly offsetting that freight bill to get them home. Obviously, diesel prices and freight is very expensive at the minute, as you would all, I'm sure, know, and that difference because the the Southern price slid so quickly, it has allowed those Northerners to get into Southern markets and chase those cattle that were were probably going to to come into their yards if it hadn't gone dry. Now they've just got to travel further afield to find them. Why am I saying this and what what does this mean? It shows to you how price spreads in markets, or what's called basis, which is the difference in this instance between the Southern and Northern Angus price against the flatback price, can really be influenced by geographical location, and how that then influences as well, obviously, dependent on what those spreads are, how or what the buying behavior is from feedlots. So, as those spreads move and adjust, it can redirect feedlots and their buying patterns to move to different geographical areas. And we're seeing that at the minute because of the the narrow spread between Southern black steers and flatbacks on the Downs, or simply the fact that they're cheaper than their Northern black counterparts, it's pushing them to different areas. So, understanding what these spreads are and what they mean can be really influential to understanding how feedlots are operating at different times of the year. The same applies in winter, when there is a lack of supply or feeder prices are high in winter in Southern Australia, you see the Southern feedlots go north to purchase cattle. The spreads in winter, or the opposite in that instance, also applies as an example of this, but I think the current situation with the cheapness of Southern or the softer prices of Southern black steers is a really good example. The South, despite that rain from a feeder perspective, cattle continue to come forwards to market. A lot of the reason has to do with producers being worried cattle are going to blow out the top of grids because they're performing quite strongly, and how good the spring is in terms of of weight gain. So they want to get them off farm into the into pens before that that happens. For feeders on the Downs at the minute, I mentioned a little minute ago, they haven't really gone anywhere. They've stayed pretty firm the last couple of weeks. Queensland feedlots are trying to find cheaper cattle, but they are in a standoff with producers to do that. They it and any any price under sort of 5.10 at the minute, it's difficult to source numbers for those Queensland yards, and the producers are holding because they they believe and and, you know, feel naturally at this time of year, rain and storms will occur, which is, you know, which is obviously what I'm what we've been talking about today is these storms developing at the back end of this week. A really important connection here to make to that is exactly why this rain developing and the standoff in rates is exactly why feedlots have lengthened their book on buying cattle forwards. So they've extended their positions a little bit on prices for cattle delivered into the future to act as a hedge against the risk of of storms appearing at this time of year. The other way that they've been doing it is working with us on the forward contracting side and doing the exact same thing. So they can lock in buy prices three, four, five months ago prior to this time of year, and instead of operating in the spot market, they already know what they've got cattle bought for previously to protect on that upside. That's all for today. A fair bit in that episode, but plenty of really interesting things that I'm of course keeping an eye on. This time of year is really interesting from a market's perspective because of of summer storms and weather starting to build up. So, yeah, stay in touch with it. Make sure you share it with anyone think might find this interesting, and if today's episode has raised any questions, reach out, send me an email to [email protected] or record a voice note of yourself, where you're from, and the question, and we'll get to answering it in the next episode. If you are enjoying this, make sure to give it a review on Apple or Spotify, and other than that, thank you for listening. Until next time, take care. Cheers.",
  "description": "This week, Ripley Atkinson, Australian Meats & Livestock Manager at StoneX, examines the forces behind the cattle market, unpacking key drivers across parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, as well as New South Wales.  \n\n\nRipley discusses how an impending storm system due this week for large parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland could motivate producer confidence while boosting market activity. He also covers the slump of confidence from New South Wales producers and how slaughter numbers may rebound in Q4 under continued demand from China and South Korea.    \n\n\nTo cap off, Ripley unpacks the price spreads between Flatbacks and Southern & Northern Angus feeder cattle, including what these could signify from a demand perspective.   ",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-11T21:09:47Z",
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  "reporting_date": "2026-10-11",
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