GFS vs ECMWF U.S. demand-hub forecast (15-day) - Run #4078
Reporting Date: 2026-10-11T18:00:00Z
Completed
Run Details
- State
- Completed
- Started At
- October 11, 2026 at 06:25 PM
- Completed At
- October 11, 2026 at 06:25 PM
- Duration
- less than a minute
Data Preview
{
"models": {
"gfs": "gfs_seamless",
"ecmwf": "ecmwf_ifs025"
},
"source": "Open-Meteo",
"locations": [
{
"id": "chicago",
"lat": 41.85,
"lon": -87.65,
"label": "Midwest (Chicago)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 3.3111
},
"daily_series": [
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 2.775,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 1.1375,
"valid_date": "2026-10-11",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 62.225,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 63.8625
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 2.7917,
"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 4.4292,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-12",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 67.7917,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 69.4292
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 10.9917,
"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 10.5458,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-13",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 75.9917,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 75.5458
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.25,
"hdd_gfs": 0.0,
"cdd_ecmwf": 3.5042,
"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-14",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 65.25,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 68.5042
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 6.9792,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 6.0375,
"valid_date": "2026-10-15",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 58.0208,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 58.9625
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
"hdd_gfs": 12.2792,
"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 7.7,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 52.7208,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 57.3
},
{
"cdd_gfs": 0.0,
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-17",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 41.3958,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 50.4417
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 10.5167,
"valid_date": "2026-10-18",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 47.5417,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 54.4833
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 5.1292,
"valid_date": "2026-10-19",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 55.05,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.8708
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-20",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 62.1208
},
{
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"hdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"valid_date": "2026-10-21",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 65.3625
},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-22",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 66.675,
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},
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-23",
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},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
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"valid_date": "2026-10-24",
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.1292
},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 12.55,
"valid_date": "2026-10-25",
"mean_temp_f_gfs": 51.2083,
"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 52.45
}
],
"demand_weight": 0.35,
"noaa_region_hint": "midwest",
"cumulative_cdd_gfs": 15.7084,
"cumulative_hdd_gfs": 104.4209,
"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 18.8417,
"cumulative_hdd_ecmwf": 80.3125
},
{
"id": "nyc",
"lat": 40.71,
"lon": -74.0,
"label": "East (New York City)",
"divergence": {
"mean_abs_hdd_diff_by_day": 2.5153
},
"daily_series": [
{
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"valid_date": "2026-10-11",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"cdd_ecmwf": 0.0,
"hdd_ecmwf": 6.8208,
"valid_date": "2026-10-16",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_ecmwf": 59.7583
},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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},
{
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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"cumulative_cdd_ecmwf": 186.8041,
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},
{
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"divergence": {
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},
"daily_series": [
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 63.6792,
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 66.7083,
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},
{
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},
{
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"mean_temp_f_gfs": 78.35,
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},
{
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},
{
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Feed Information
Feed Type
GfsEcmwfUsDemandHubForecastFeed