Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 10:17 PM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 10:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

USDA Delivers Unexpected Blow to Corn Bulls, Corn Prices Tank

Data Preview

{
  "title": "USDA Delivers Unexpected Blow to Corn Bulls, Corn Prices Tank",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Will corn yield continue to rise in November and subsequent reports?",
      "What will USDA do with bean yield in November?"
    ],
    "topics": [
      "USDA WASDE Report",
      "Corn Yield",
      "Corn Production",
      "Corn Ending Stocks",
      "Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
      "Soybean Yield",
      "Soybean Production",
      "Soybean Ending Stocks",
      "Wheat Ending Stocks",
      "Agricultural Markets"
    ],
    "summary": "The USDA's October WASDE report delivered an unexpected blow to the corn market by increasing corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, contrary to market expectations of a decrease. This led to a significant rise in U.S. corn ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio, causing corn prices to fall. Soybean yields and production also increased, though U.S. soybean ending stocks saw only a slight rise, while U.S. wheat ending stocks were also raised.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "released October WASDE report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "reporter"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brian Splitt",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "analyst"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "primary focus of the report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "also covered in the report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "also covered in the report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iowa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "mentioned for rain"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn Belt",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "mentioned for ample rains for soybeans"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "bearish",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The USDA's October WASDE report delivered a \"gut punch\" to the corn market by increasing its yield forecast.",
        "timestamp": "00:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market was expecting a slight decrease in corn yield due to record rains in August and September.",
        "timestamp": "00:12",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "USDA increased the national corn yield from September by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels per acre, which was a shock as the trade expected a 0.7 bushel cut.",
        "timestamp": "00:28",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "This yield increase led to corn production rising by 234 million bushels to over 16 billion bushels.",
        "timestamp": "00:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "USDA increased corn carry-in stocks by 173 million bushels, as expected.",
        "timestamp": "01:11",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Demand categories for corn saw increases: feed residual up 50 million, exports up 25 million, and food/seed industrial up 50 million, totaling a 125 million bushel increase in demand.",
        "timestamp": "01:19",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "U.S. corn ending stocks increased by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion bushels, raising the stocks-to-use ratio back above 10% (to 11.3% from 9.7%).",
        "timestamp": "01:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The increase in corn stocks-to-use ratio above 10% \"tanked the corn market\" and took the \"wind out of the sails\" for a long-term bull market conversation.",
        "timestamp": "01:49",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "World corn ending stocks were also raised by 8.3 million metric tons, which is bearish.",
        "timestamp": "02:14",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybeans saw a 0.3 bushel per acre increase in yield to 53.1 bushels per acre.",
        "timestamp": "02:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean production rose by 27 million bushels to a record 4.561 billion bushels due to ample rains in the Corn Belt.",
        "timestamp": "02:26",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "U.S. soybean ending stocks were only up 5 million bushels, with a production increase of 17 million and a demand increase of 12 million.",
        "timestamp": "02:48",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million bushels.",
        "timestamp": "03:09",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "World wheat ending stocks shrunk slightly to 276 million metric tons.",
        "timestamp": "03:16",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "181.2 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "2026 Corn Yield",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "178.5 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "2026 Corn Yield",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "16.03 billion bushels",
        "metric": "2026 Corn Production",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "15.80 billion bushels",
        "metric": "2026 Corn Production",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased by 173 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Carry-in Stocks",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 50 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Feed Residual Demand",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 25 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Exports",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 50 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Food and Seed Industrial Demand",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased by 125 million bushels",
        "metric": "Total Corn Demand",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.849 billion bushels",
        "metric": "2026 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.567 billion bushels",
        "metric": "2026 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "11.3%",
        "metric": "Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "9.7%",
        "metric": "Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "raised by 8.3 million metric tons",
        "metric": "World Corn Ending Stocks",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "53.1 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "2026 Soybean Yield",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "52.8 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "2026 Soybean Yield",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.561 billion bushels",
        "metric": "2026 Soybean Production",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.534 billion bushels",
        "metric": "2026 Soybean Production",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "17 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Production Increase",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "12 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Demand Increase",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "315 million bushels",
        "metric": "2026 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "310 million bushels",
        "metric": "2026 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "740 million bushels",
        "metric": "2026 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "717 million bushels",
        "metric": "2026 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "shrunk slightly to 276 million metric tons",
        "metric": "World Wheat Ending Stocks",
        "period": "October Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed analysis of the USDA's October WASDE report for corn, soybeans, and wheat, including specific yield, production, and stock figures."
  },
  "video_id": "EKy905aoGVQ",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKy905aoGVQ",
  "transcript": "USDA provided a gut punch to the corn market on Friday with its yield forecast in the October crop production and WASDE report. Thanks for joining us for Ag Day. I'm Michelle Rook. Well, the market was actually expecting a slight decrease in corn yield, especially with some of the record rains in parts of August and into September. However, instead, USDA increased yield, and the concern now is will it continue to rise in November and subsequent reports? USDA raised the national corn yield from September by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels, which was a shock when the trade was looking for a 0.7 bushel cut. That increased production by 234 million bushels to over 16 billion bushels. Everybody is kind of gone uh through the motions with the USDA, thinking that uh with the yield reduction we saw last month, uh that we were going to still kind of reside around that uh 178-ish type of a number. And, um, you know, with uh all of the uh rain that was in Iowa and and uh some of the early harvest reports we're hearing for corn, uh, the thought was that we would maybe see yield come down a touch more. USDA increased carry-in stocks on corn by 173 million bushels as expected, but did raise demand. So the only saving grace was some of these uh increases in in the demand categories. Um, you know, looking at the feed residual up 50, the uh exports up 25, um, the uh uh food and seed industrial up 50. So total demand was increased by 125 million bushels. So that increased carryout by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion bushels and raised the stocks to use ratio back above 10%, which tanked the corn market. We very briefly had stocks to use below 10% at 9.7% last month, and now we're back to 11.3%. So, uh, that 10% number really kind of being a key uh uh stocks to use percentage that separates, you know, the possibility of bigger picture long-term bull market. So, uh, we've definitely seen the wind taken out of the sales for that conversation today. Plus, world corn ending stocks were also raised by 8.3 million metric tons, which is bearish. Soybeans also saw a 0.3 bushel per acre increase in yield to 53.1 bushels. That raised production by 27 million bushels to a record 4.561 billion bushels with ample rains in much of the corn belt. And the concern is going to be if yield went up today, and we just saw what the USDA did with corn, what do they do with bean yield in November? And he says early harvest results have been strong in the central and east, offsetting quality issues in the west. Still, soybean ending stocks were only up 5 million bushels. So overall, we had a production increase uh of 17 million, and we had a demand increase of 12. So only 5 million bushels get added to the new crop balance sheet for soybeans. That's a pretty big victory, I think, all things considered. USDA raised wheat ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million bushels, while world wheat ending stocks shrunk slightly to 276 million metric tons.",
  "description": null,
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T21:51:01Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/EKy905aoGVQ/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-09",
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