Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 08:17 PM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 08:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

When Will Corn and Soybean Quality Issues Show Up in USDA’s WASDE Report?

Data Preview

{
  "title": "When Will Corn and Soybean Quality Issues Show Up in USDA’s WASDE Report?",
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    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
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  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
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  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Quality issues in corn, particularly in the Northern Corn Belt, may not be fully reflected in USDA WASDE reports if they do not impact volume.",
      "The general economy's inflation and potential for consumers to substitute away from beef could impact demand, although current beef demand remains strong.",
      "High input costs (diesel fuel, fertilizer) could lead to reduced application and a yield drag in future crops, impacting profitability.",
      "Despite potential pauses in expansion, South American crop production will still represent significant competition for US exports."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Agricultural Markets",
      "Corn",
      "Soybeans",
      "Cattle",
      "USDA Reports",
      "WASDE Report",
      "Grain Stocks",
      "Feed and Residual",
      "Crop Yields",
      "Crop Quality",
      "Demand",
      "Beef Demand",
      "Soybean Meal Demand",
      "Biofuels",
      "Herd Rebuilding",
      "Input Costs",
      "Fertilizer Prices",
      "Diesel Fuel Prices",
      "South American Agriculture",
      "Crop Budgets"
    ],
    "summary": "This video discusses current agricultural market conditions, focusing on corn, soybeans, and cattle. Experts analyze the impact of recent USDA reports, varying crop yields across Missouri, and national quality concerns for corn. The conversation also covers strong demand for beef and soybean meal, challenges in cattle herd rebuilding, and rising input costs for the upcoming planting season in both the US and South America.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Ben Brown",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Extension Agricultural Economist, Univ. of Missouri"
      },
      {
        "name": "Seth Meyer",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), Univ. of Missouri"
      },
      {
        "name": "Elliott Denis",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Associate Professor, Ag Economist, Univ. of Missouri"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "US Department of Agriculture"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Grain market discussions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Grain market discussions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Livestock market discussions"
      },
      {
        "name": "Missouri",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Local crop yields and agricultural economy"
      },
      {
        "name": "Northern Corn Belt",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Area with corn quality issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iowa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Part of Northern Corn Belt"
      },
      {
        "name": "Minnesota",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Part of Northern Corn Belt"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wisconsin",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Part of Northern Corn Belt"
      },
      {
        "name": "South America",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Upcoming planting season and competition"
      },
      {
        "name": "Feed and residual",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "USDA balance sheet category"
      },
      {
        "name": "Yield",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Crop production"
      },
      {
        "name": "Quality issues",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Concerns for corn and soybeans"
      },
      {
        "name": "Herd rebuilding",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Cattle industry trend"
      },
      {
        "name": "Stagflation",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Economic concern"
      },
      {
        "name": "Diesel fuel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Input cost"
      },
      {
        "name": "Fertilizer",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Input cost"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybean meal",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Feed market demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Biofuel",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Driver of soybean crushing"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.95,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The 'feed and residual' category in USDA reports is a plug for anything off in other elements, making it move more than livestock numbers.",
        "timestamp": "00:46",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "After the September Grain Stocks Report, stocks appeared larger than the trade might have expected.",
        "timestamp": "00:57",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Missouri corn yields are varied, with early-planted corn doing well, but late-planted corn struggling due to heavy June rains and subsequent dryness.",
        "timestamp": "01:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Missouri is currently running above normal for harvest periods, but some areas are experiencing stress.",
        "timestamp": "02:18",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market is becoming comfortable with a national corn yield of 178-180 bushels per acre.",
        "timestamp": "02:49",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "There are quality concerns in the Northern Corn Belt (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin) due to late-season rains, which do not show up in WASDE reports if they don't affect volume.",
        "timestamp": "03:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "88% of the rise in beef prices is attributed to demand, and 12% to lower supply.",
        "timestamp": "05:47",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Consumers are still willing to pay a premium for beef in both retail and at-home settings.",
        "timestamp": "06:19",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Hesitancy in cattle herd rebuilding is partly due to past experiences, such as the rapid rebuild in 2014-2015 followed by a massive drought.",
        "timestamp": "05:27",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean meal demand has been surprisingly strong, driven by crushing beans for biofuel, with the meal making its way into the feed market.",
        "timestamp": "04:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "South America is facing similar fertilizer and input issues as the US, which could lead to a pause in production expansion, though a flat crop is still a large crop.",
        "timestamp": "08:31",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Diesel fuel prices are up 60% relative to 2026 estimates, and fertilizer prices remain elevated, posing significant challenges for 2027 crop budgets.",
        "timestamp": "09:46",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If demand holds, cattle prices will continue to rise, as the industry is in a multi-year rebuilding cycle.",
        "timestamp": "10:33",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Market comfort level for national yield",
        "value": "178-180 bushel",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Increase relative to 2026 estimates",
        "value": "60%",
        "instrument": "Diesel fuel",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "metric": "September Grain Stocks Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "metric": "October WASDE Report",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Surveys",
        "source": "NASS"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Beef demand",
        "source": "Meat Demand Monitor"
      },
      {
        "metric": "Crop budgets",
        "source": "Missouri"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses agricultural markets, including corn, soybeans, and cattle, with analysis of USDA reports, yields, demand, and input costs."
  },
  "video_id": "tSKLvhaFC_o",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSKLvhaFC_o",
  "transcript": "I mean, check out this crowd, check out this energy. We have Ben Brown, Elliott Dennis, as well as Seth Meyer joining us to talk markets. Now, we are having this discussion before the big October WASDE report. So we're going to have to tiptoe around this a bit, but there's a lot of controversy, Seth, after the September Grain Stocks report and a lot of question marks about where all of this supply came from, but it brought up the question about feed and residual. Because that is the one USDA category that really you can't directly measure. So it ends up being kind of that plug it seems like in the balance sheet that that just sometimes doesn't add up. How much confidence should farmers have in that number when USDA releases that each month? Well, you know, it's called feed and residual for a reason. So there's the residual element to it, which is any anything that's off a little bit in every other element gets dumped into feed and residual. And so, you know, one of the controversies was stocks appeared to be larger than the trade might have expected. But I think when you look overall, you're seeing that uh uh feed and residual remains quite large relative to the number of livestock that we have. So I think that that we're we're kind of in an interesting situation this year where we had uh in 25, 26, big crop, lot of soybean meal, lot of soybean, a lot of feed in the market. And so, it's feed and residual. All the errors get dumped into it, so it moves a lot more than livestock does. Okay, that makes sense. Because after that grain stocks report, we talked about it last week and on the show, it was a big bearish shock. Now, we've seen the market kind of come back a little bit since then, but Ben, there's a lot of talk right now about yield. We know with all this rain, there's some problems out there. The Missouri crop, from what I've heard, even though there were some problems this year, it it's fairing pretty well. What are you hearing about yields across the state? Yeah, absolutely. And just like any year, we've got both really good and really bad and everything in between. Uh, you know, you talk to Missouri producers across the state and some are very happy with their their corn yields, especially those that were able to get in and plant early. Of course, then it got wet on us and we had some pretty strong and heavy rainfalls in in June that caused a lot of replant. And then it turned dry. And and if we had late planted corn, uh, you know, some of that's just not fairing as well because we had we had that late season dryness. And then certainly the rains here as of late have delayed some of our harvest. Missouri is still running above normal for harvest periods, but there are some areas of the state where we're a little stressed. Uh, you know, farmers get a little grumpy when we feel behind. And uh, and so there are some areas where we're facing challenges. And and but overall, I think we're going to be at or above trend for for corn, maybe not as strong as last year. Soybeans, we still got the late planted and double crop beans to go. So, nationally, what do you think the market is trading at this point as far as as yield goes? Yeah, I think the market is is coming to the the comfort level of 178, 180 bushel corn yield. Um, certainly there's people less than that, people higher. But I think we're finding some areas that we thought were going to be plagued by that late season drought that are yielding fairly well. And I think that's a maybe a tip to the cap of what we've done with genetics the last couple of years. Also, I think improved management has has helped with that. But there are some quality concerns. There's a lot of reports out there about quality issues in the northern Corn Belt, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Um, and and those will come to fruition in the market. And we'll have to see how that impacts total corn supply, available supplies of quality grain. But as of right now, I think the market's becoming comfortable with high 170s. Seth, there's a lot of chatter about quality issues in corn and and soybeans. And it's hard to tell because, you know, you see the pictures on social media, it's hard to tell how widespread it is. But if there truly are some quality issues from all of this late season rains, when do you think that would start showing up in these USDA reports? So, if we're talking about things that are not that so if it's not volume, it doesn't. It doesn't show up, right? If it is volume, then it shows up. And so when you say quality issues, is this truly a yield issue or is it something else? So if it's purely uh quality, that doesn't, you know, this is not as good. There's there's um problems with the quality of the grain, but not on the size. That doesn't show up in the WASDE at all. You know, October can be a surprise on yield, but by the time you get to October, you know, we move we're moving from basically uh uh NASS surveys in the field to farmer opinions on actual harvested surveys. Demand has been so good that we do need some of these strong yields out there to meet some of this demand. What has been the biggest surprise for you this year when it comes to Seth for either corn or soybean demand? Where would you say the biggest surprises so far? So, again, I think this kind of goes back to our feed discussion. And, you know, we can question feed and residual for corn, but on the meal side, it has been quite surprising to me that, you know, we're crushing a lot of meal, uh, because we're crushing a lot of beans to make oil for biofuels, and we got a lot of meal. There was a lot of concern early on, what are we going to do this with this meal? But it's been making its way into the feed market pretty strongly. So maybe, you know, if I'm picking one thing that's kind of on my mind, it's the way that that meal has made its way into the feed market. Elliott, let's talk about cattle prices because, I mean, Seth here a year ago and said that is the bright spot in the ag economy, and that continues and has been. I mean, you know, prices have changed a little bit, but it has been the brighter spot in the ag economy here in Missouri as well. When we look at herd rebuilding, there's so much talk of it. We really haven't seen that happen yet. What seems to be holding producers back? I think some of it's a little bit of memory. If we think back in 2014, 2015, we we really built the herd quickly, and then we had that that massive drought. I think there's just some some hesitancy out there from uh just kind of some of that memory, some of the policy. But one of the things that we're, you know, kind of banking on is that we know that, you know, we have strong beef demand. Uh, when we think about kind of the rise in in beef prices that we've had, about 88% of that is contributed to the demand, and 12% is really contributed to this this lower supply. So even though we tend to focus on the supply side and the herd rebuilding, demand is really what's been carrying prices for producers. Demand has been carrying prices. We're talking a lot about stagflation. Are you worried at all about the demand side of the equation right now? I think what we're concerned is if we start to have, you know, inflation, there starts to be kind of distributing across with higher prices that maybe we start to substitute. The good thing is, uh, through the meat demand monitor, uh, we've started to see that people are still willing to pay a premium for beef. Um, and so that's that's true across the the retail space and also that the at-home space. And so, um, while I think there's some concern out there in the general economy, beef tends to be holding up right now. Elliott saved you because I was about to put you on the spot, but he jumped in and he saved you, Ben. So you better eat. Yeah, you you owe Elliott a thank you for that one because I was about to ask you actually give me a number. All right, real quick. Let's talk about South America because I know we are in the height of harvest right now, especially with this weather this week. But Seth, we are getting ready to focus on South America. We're going to see them planting. There's talk that maybe for the first time in years, we're not going to see South America expand production. What do you think? Could we see actually South America just hold where we saw last year and not expand? And and if so, why? Yeah, I mean, I'm they're they're facing some of the same fertilizer and input issues that we are. So they're facing some of the same margin challenges as we are. Now, they'll they'll benefit from the prices, the higher prices as well, too. They'll make some decisions. Um, I think even a flat South American crop is a big crop. That that's still a lot of competition. So we could see they're facing the same input issues that we are. And if it's a if it's a pause, it's just a pause. Uh, we're talking about acres in South America. We're harvesting here. It's hard to talk about 2027 acreage, but I am hearing that the 2027 acreage debate could be super interesting this year and super competitive. Why, Seth? Well, and I think it's the same you've got all these input issues when you and Ben, you and I are talking about your crop budgets for the next year, which you may want to talk about, but, you know, what is diesel going to look like? You know, does some of the fertilizer price inputs really come home this season that you kind of maybe some folks had planned ahead in the in the prior season. And so I think that there's some challenges on the input side that producers are really going to struggle with when they think about those crop acres. Yeah, not only inputs, I mean, we look at interest rates, too. But let's talk about those budgets for next year. What what are you watching, Ben? Yeah, so we're we're currently putting together our Missouri crop budgets. We certainly look national uh as well in terms of profitability. And uh, we have some big questions. Uh, you know, diesel fuel is up 60% relative to what we estimated for the 2026 crop. Uh, and we were low last year in terms of where we ended up. Fertilizer remains elevated and is going to continue to be, you know, one of those categories that that we have to figure out, okay, how do we how do we think about total utilization? Does that start leading to people buying less and applying less fertilizer? Do we have a yield drag? Um, that starts to show up in our in our profitability as well. And so, uh, I don't I didn't answer your question as a, you know, a good economist. It depends, Tyne. But that's that's what I've got. I think one of the things that's uh been like it's driving this discussion is just the longer days on feed for cattle. Uh, with cheaper corn, we were feeding him a lot. That was kind of how we were making up kind of the pounds of production there. Uh, and with kind of the corn price has kind of changed a little bit, we've started to rethink that a little bit of saying, should we be feeding him, you know, 90 days longer? Uh, Elliott, Seth, Ben, thank you so much for joining us. We talked fertilizer prices, but is there any relief in sight? We have Josh Lindville joining us from the University of Missouri next.",
  "description": "Mizzou economists explain when harvest-related corn quality issues could show up in USDA reports, what the October WASDE may reveal about yields, and how grain stocks, soybean meal demand and cattle prices are shaping markets.",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T20:02:52Z",
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