Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 07:17 PM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 07:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Closes 10/9 Corn Implodes After USDA Raises Yield, Wheat Follows: Beans End Higher

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Closes 10/9 Corn Implodes After USDA Raises Yield, Wheat Follows:  Beans End Higher",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Managed money selling off corn positions in mass could lead to heavy near-term price pressure.",
      "The USDA may raise corn yield estimates further in subsequent reports, although the speaker believes they overshot the October estimate.",
      "Continued high imports of beef could be a headwind for the cattle market.",
      "If the cash cattle market struggles, box beef values will continue to be a 'wet blanket' on the market.",
      "The hog market faces more near-term doom and gloom due to ample market-ready supplies and discounting of wholesale prices."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Corn Market",
      "Soybean Market",
      "Wheat Market",
      "Cattle Market",
      "Hog Market",
      "USDA Reports",
      "Yield Estimates",
      "Ending Stocks",
      "Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
      "Money Flow",
      "Technical Analysis",
      "Cash Market",
      "Box Beef Values",
      "Imports",
      "Slaughter Rates",
      "Geopolitics"
    ],
    "summary": "The corn market experienced a significant downturn after the USDA reported a surprisingly large increase in yield, catching the market off guard. Soybeans, however, showed resilience, supported by strong demand from crushers and a positive divergence from corn. The cattle market saw an optimistic bounce due to lower corn prices, while the hog market remains under pressure from ample supplies and declining wholesale prices, with further downside expected.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Brian Grady",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Analyst from Comstock Investments"
      },
      {
        "name": "Comstock Investments",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Brian Grady's firm"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Provider of agricultural reports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion on yield, stocks, and price pressure"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion on yield, ending stocks, and support"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion on following corn and geopolitics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Feeder Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion on price action and cash markets"
      },
      {
        "name": "Live Cattle",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion on price action and cash markets"
      },
      {
        "name": "Hogs",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Market discussion on oversupply and price discounting"
      },
      {
        "name": "Western Corn Belt",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Area where producers are facing quality issues with crops"
      },
      {
        "name": "Money Flow",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Key driver for corn market direction"
      },
      {
        "name": "Geopolitics",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "One of the two focal points for the wheat market"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The USDA's October report showed a significant increase in corn yield by 2.7 bushels per acre, which was the largest October yield increase since 2004.",
        "timestamp": "00:36",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn ending stocks are now projected at 1.849 billion bushels, which is 49 million bushels above the comfort range of 1.8 billion bushels.",
        "timestamp": "01:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Managed money was near record long in corn going into the report, and a mass exit by funds could lead to more heavy near-term price pressure.",
        "timestamp": "01:49",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The corn stocks-to-use ratio is currently 11.3%, which is still below the long-term average of 12.5%.",
        "timestamp": "02:25",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 2.7 bushel increase in corn yield feels like the USDA overshot it, and the speaker expects the final yield to be lower than the October estimate.",
        "timestamp": "03:19",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean yield was raised by 0.3 bushels per acre, and the speaker anticipates a record soybean yield for the year, higher than the 53.1 bushels per acre reported in October.",
        "timestamp": "04:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The soybean market has divorced from corn, which is a positive sign, and the soymeal market is very supportive for soybeans due to crushers being short-bought on near-term needs.",
        "timestamp": "05:55",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The pullback in the corn market helped the cattle market, with live cattle futures breaking out above September highs, which should improve cash markets for both fat and feeder cattle.",
        "timestamp": "07:57",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The hog market is facing a perpetual cycle of negativity with too many hogs, requiring continuous discounting of wholesale prices to move product, and seasonally, now is not the time for the hog market to put in a low.",
        "timestamp": "10:11",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Box beef values are now under $80, the first time since April 2023, indicating a negative situation for the hog market.",
        "timestamp": "10:47",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Area of support on the chart",
        "value": "4.60",
        "instrument": "December Corn Futures",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "First time since April 2023",
        "value": "under $80",
        "instrument": "Box Beef",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "increased by 2.7 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Corn Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.849 billion bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Ending Stocks",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "11.3%",
        "metric": "Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "raised 0.3 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Soybean Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased by 5 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Ending Stocks",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "down",
        "metric": "Ear Counts",
        "period": "10-state area",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "up significantly",
        "metric": "Implied Ear Weights",
        "period": "month-over-month",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "53.4 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Soybean Yield",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "53.1 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Soybean Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "under $80",
        "metric": "Box Beef Values",
        "source": "USDA"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed analysis of corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and hog markets, including specific data points and price levels."
  },
  "video_id": "Hl8igs95Xc0",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl8igs95Xc0",
  "transcript": "Welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Work with Brian Grady of Comstock Investments. We ended mixed in grain and livestock futures trade on Friday and Brian, a big down day in the corn market. Obviously, that was quite a shock. USDA gave us increasing yield by 2.7 bushels per acre, especially when some believe in the trade had pretty much figured we were going to see a yield decrease, right? Absolutely. Um, yield decrease was built in ahead of the report and and you get the not only increase, but huge increase. That's the largest uh October yield increase back to 2004. And so it caught the market completely wrong-footed there and and you see the massive wave of selling pressure that we saw on Friday coming out of the report. That's right. And when we look at ending stocks up 282 million bushels. So now at 1.849 billion bushels. How much lower do you think we need to go here to price that in? Yeah, I don't think we need to go a whole lot lower to be honest with you. Um, you know, the the comfort range for corn carryovers, the upper end is about 1.8 billion bushels. So we're only 49 million bushels above that level with where the ending stocks were projected. So, I don't I don't think you have to do a whole lot, probably to the downside a 460 level is an area of support on December corn futures chart, but probably the bigger thing than the the fundamentals is the money flow. And what do the funds decide to do because managed money was near record long going into the report. They'd shaved off some from their record position, but still heavily long. And so very much a herd mentality within the managed money community. And so if they all decide that they want to get out in mass, and that doesn't mean that they have to get out all their length by any means, but if they if they get out in mass, um, boy, then we've probably faced some more heavy near-term price pressure. So, I I would watch more on the managed money and what the funds do than worry about the fundamentals at the moment. Okay. But still, you've got a stocks to use ratio now that's what at 11.3% and so that's that in itself is pretty bearish and then world stocks actually went up over 8 million metric tons, didn't they? Absolutely on the on the global. Now, keep in mind, the uh long-term average for stacks to use in corn is 12 and a half. So, we're still below that. We're just not as low as what the September WASDE report projected at under 10. So, you know, we did change a little bit on that front. It it's not bearish, I don't think from that perspective. Brian, is the fear going forward now that USDA may raise yield in subsequent reports or not? Do big crops get get bigger? Well, uh that's the mantra, big crops get bigger and and this is definitely in that category because it's the second largest ever behind last year's record. So, uh I think that there is some risk of that, but uh boy, that 2.7 bushel increase in yield feels like USDA overshot it. So we have another estimate in November and then we get the final in January. So, I I think that ultimately we end up somewhere south of of where USDA estimated for October, but uh I guess you can't uh, you know, it's not out of the realm of possibility that you could see a higher yield still. And this came from ear counts, is that right? The ear counts were actually down in the 10-state area. Now, there were a couple states that did have uh month over month increases in ear counts. That's not unprecedented, but somewhat unusual. Uh the big takeaway here is that implied ear weights uh because you had the 10-state uh ear counts that came down, implied ear weights actually had to go up and go up a significant amount month over month there. And and so I think that's the underlying story here is can we hold on to those uh big ear weights that uh USDA projected. Absolutely. Uh, let's talk about soybeans because yield was raised 0.3 bushels per acre. Uh, but do you think it's actually going to go up from here? I do. Uh, you know, in August I put a 53.4 bushel yield uh record on it. And uh so, uh we're still below that, uh but climbing and and I think that we will see that we have a record uh soybean yield when all said and done. It'll be something higher than the 53.1 that USDA came with in October. Um, we'll see where it ends up, but it it's going to be a record, I think. Yeah. This is a record, obviously, where we're at and there's going to be a lot of producers in the Western Corn Belt that are going to argue about all of the quality issues that they've had and that the crop, you know, isn't getting bigger in their area, it's getting smaller. Yeah, well, uh yield and uh quality are two separate things. So yield is what comes out of the field and and that's what the futures market pays attention to. Quality is a cash market issue and if you face any discounts when you deliver to elevators, crush plants, whatever the case may be. So, uh two separate things on that one. Um, you know, those guys with with quality issues and and facing the heavy rains through September and and sitting there with a a big crop and not being able to get at it and all that stuff is frustrating. Uh, but the yield is is going to be record large when all said and done. Yeah. The good news is when all is said and done, we actually raised ending stocks by only 5 million bushels and so that's why the market ended a little bit higher here on Friday. Yeah, huge bounce back. You know, the initial knee-jerk reaction was tied to the corn market and the heavy sell-off there. I think it's a positive that we saw soybeans divorced from corn. Uh and that will be key moving forward. Now, keep in mind, the soybean meal market is very supportive for soybeans at the moment because crushers got caught short-bought on their near-term needs and so they are out there actively trying to source supplies. That's helping basis as well. So take advantage of those cash opportunities if you have them. Um, but the the meal market, uh that that one's a critical one for soybeans moving forward. As long as that support remains there, the downside should be limited for soybeans. Yeah. How long do you expect that's going to continue though? Because once we start getting enough beans in the system, is that going to go away? Oh, it eventually will, yes. Um, but you know, there there were short-bought. Uh they anticipated or they bet that there was going to be a quick harvest. We didn't get that. We got harvest delays. So this one's going to take a little bit of time to to play out, I think. Uh, but it eventually will. And so those push bids that you're seeing in some areas for soybeans, they'll remain in place until they have that ample supply. Once they have that ample supply, it's going to go away and go away in a hurry. So, if you're in that situation, uh make sure you take advantage of it before it disappears. Yeah. So again, you think prices are going to be well supported here? As long as the soybean meal market's supported, I think soybeans will be. Gotcha. Okay, we we saw what a 23 million bushel increase in the ending stocks and not much happened on the world front. So, was the market looking at that or was wheat just following corn? Uh, I think wheat's following corn. I mean, let's be honest, the wheat wheat market has two focal points, corn and geopolitics. And so we're getting kind of tired of playing the geopolitics game. Um, you know, sure from day to day, it can influence price action and you get a bullish headline that pushes prices up. You get a bearish headline that pulls prices down. But I think, you know, from a longer-term perspective, wheat probably is tied more closely to corn in all honesty. For sure. And the pullback in the corn market seemed to really help the cattle market here today. We finally took out in the live cattle futures, some of those September highs. How important was that? Yeah, very important. Really explosive price action. So we saw the feeder cattle market in particular react to the uh sharp downturn in corn. And so now we have, you know, upside breakouts on the daily charts in in feeder cattle, live cattle. Uh that should improve the cash markets, both cash fat cattle and cash feeder cattle. And we've been kind of dragging our feet on both of those fronts here recently. And so, uh this should pump some optimism into the cattle market and it definitely did into the futures into the close on Friday. Yeah. Is this enough, Brian, to get the funds to really start back coming in and buying because open interest has been pretty pretty quiet, pretty slow here. We haven't had the funds participating necessarily. Yeah, and I think that that is key. Um, you know my thoughts on money flow, I talked about it earlier in the corn market and and can be very powerful. So, if this did flip the page and and now the funds say, hey, look at the cattle market. It's been beaten up and and we get some positive technicals. The corn market's backed away down. Yeah, maybe they it does entice them and and excite them and and get them to buy again. And if they do that, uh then we have an extended push to the upside coming. The one fly in the ointment seems to be the box beef values cannot hold. And obviously, uh we saw that when we ramped slaughter back up here after the ice raids and then, you know, you also are seeing record imports. So, is that going to continue to be a headwind? Oh, I I think it will, um, to be honest with you, to some degree. Um, I I'm a big believer in the cash market. So, if the cash is is strong, uh then we'll be able to look past the uh the box beef market and all the other stuff. If the cash market continues to struggle, uh then then we look to those things and and uh they're somewhat of a uh wet blanket on the marketplace. And finally, the hog market ended lower here today. Apparently, didn't get any help from the corn market being down. And in fact, we had a weekly key reversal last week and now we're back into contract lows. What's the problem here? Well, uh too many hogs and uh, you know, we they have to continue to discount the wholesale prices to keep product moving through the pipeline. They don't have to bid up for hogs. Uh there's ample market-ready supplies out there. It looks like it's a race to the bottom in the futures with new contract lows on a near daily basis here as you mentioned and it's just uh really just a perpetual cycle of negativity right now in the hog market. We'll eventually bottom, but boy, seasonally, now is not the time for the hog market to put in a low. And so it could be more near-term doom and gloom ahead. Yeah. I think cutouts now under $80, the first time that's happened in like three years, Brian, right? Yeah, April of 2023 was the last time we were below $80 and and uh just you know, like I said, they're having to discount the uh the meat to keep it moving through the pipeline. And that's not a good recipe when you have ample market-ready supplies and you don't have enough active retailers buying. Um, man, that is that's a negative situation. For sure. All right, thanks so much, Brian Grady with Comstock Investments and Markets Now.",
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