Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 06:17 PM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 06:18 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

El Niño Crop Impact Is Showing Up Earlier Than Expected

Data Preview

{
  "title": "El Niño Crop Impact Is Showing Up Earlier Than Expected",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "El Niño's effects are complex and vary by region and crop cycle, making predictions difficult.",
      "Uncertainty about the full extent and duration of El Niño's impact globally.",
      "Potential for quality issues in European wheat due to excessive rain next spring if El Niño's lingering effects are prolonged.",
      "Significant risk to Brazil's second corn crop (Safrinha) due to the expected peak intensity of El Niño.",
      "Compounding effects of El Niño with geopolitical issues (e.g., Black Sea conflict affecting European imports) and logistical challenges (e.g., Panama Canal).",
      "Discrepancies between market consensus and actual observed impacts, leading to potential mispricing and trading difficulties."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "El Niño",
      "Weather",
      "Climate",
      "Agriculture",
      "Crops",
      "Wheat",
      "Maize",
      "Corn",
      "Soybean",
      "Fishmeal",
      "Fish Oil",
      "Fish Production",
      "River Levels",
      "Heatwaves",
      "Wildfires",
      "Monsoon",
      "Trade",
      "Logistics",
      "Energy Prices"
    ],
    "summary": "The video discusses how El Niño's effects on global agriculture and fish production have manifested earlier and more broadly than market consensus suggested. While El Niño's peak is anticipated later in the year, regions like Peru, Europe, India, Indonesia, and Panama have already experienced significant impacts such as reduced fish catches, heatwaves, low river levels, and disrupted monsoons. The speaker highlights the complexity of disentangling El Niño's influence from other factors and notes the ongoing uncertainty regarding future crop yields and market dynamics, particularly in Brazil and the US.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Climate phenomenon affecting global weather patterns"
      },
      {
        "name": "La Niña",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Climate phenomenon, opposite of El Niño"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bertrand Oesterle",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "VP of Clearing & Execution Sales at StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Company providing commodities and futures research"
      },
      {
        "name": "Peru",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country experiencing fishmeal and fish oil production issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Southern Africa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Region experiencing fish production issues (mackerel, sardines)"
      },
      {
        "name": "India",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country experiencing monsoon failure and fish production issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Indonesia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country experiencing wildfires"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Region experiencing heatwaves, low river levels, and crop concerns"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Region experiencing heatwaves and war-related logistical issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Rhine River",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "European river experiencing record low levels"
      },
      {
        "name": "Danube River",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "European river experiencing record low levels"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country whose exports are affected by war and logistics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country whose exports are affected by war and logistics"
      },
      {
        "name": "Panama",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country experiencing drought affecting the Panama Canal"
      },
      {
        "name": "Panama Canal",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "Important shipping passage affected by low water levels"
      },
      {
        "name": "Australia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country experiencing dry weather, impacting wheat harvest"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Country facing uncertainty for its second corn crop due to El Niño"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kansas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "US state where winter wheat could benefit from El Niño"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "US Department of Agriculture, providing crop estimates"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Crop affected by El Niño in Australia and Europe"
      },
      {
        "name": "Maize",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Crop affected by El Niño in Europe"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Crop affected by El Niño in the US and Brazil"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybean",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Crop affected by El Niño in the US and Brazil"
      },
      {
        "name": "Fishmeal",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Product whose production is severely impacted by El Niño"
      },
      {
        "name": "Fish oil",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Product whose production is severely impacted by El Niño"
      },
      {
        "name": "Anchovies",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Fish species affected in Peru"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mackerel",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Fish species affected in Southern Africa and India"
      },
      {
        "name": "Sardines",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Fish species affected in Southern Africa and India"
      },
      {
        "name": "Safrinha crop",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Brazil's second corn crop, facing big risk"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "El Niño has officially started, though there is disagreement among analysts on the exact start date.",
        "timestamp": "00:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "El Niño's peak is generally expected between October and December, with lingering effects potentially extending to March or June of next year.",
        "timestamp": "01:18",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Markets have likely misjudged the timing of El Niño's impact, as early problems in fishmeal and fish oil production were observed in Peru as early as January.",
        "timestamp": "02:22",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Peruvian fish catch for the first season was significantly lower than the quota (0.9 million tons vs. 1.9 million ton quota, normally 3.5-4.5 million tons), with a recent update showing only 471,000 tons.",
        "timestamp": "03:21",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The second fish catch in Peru may not take place due to high sea temperatures and an abundance of juvenile fish, leading to fishmeal production being down by about 50% and fish oil by about 30%.",
        "timestamp": "03:47",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Five consecutive heatwaves in Europe and the Black Sea region, along with record low river levels (Rhine, Danube), indicate early El Niño effects from June to August.",
        "timestamp": "05:55",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "European maize crop estimates have fallen from initial projections of 59-63 million tons to 46-50.1 million tons, increasing import requirements to 22-27 million tons.",
        "timestamp": "07:00",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Wildfires in Indonesia and a failed monsoon in India during August were early El Niño signals, preceding the consensus September start date.",
        "timestamp": "09:32",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Panama Canal shipping traffic has been reduced from 36 ships/day in August to 29.5 ships/day in October due to low water levels caused by El Niño-related high temperatures and reduced rains.",
        "timestamp": "11:14",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Australia's wheat harvest is now expected to be around 30-31 million tons, a significant improvement from initial fears of a 50% drop, suggesting El Niño's impact there was less severe than initially perceived.",
        "timestamp": "12:55",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn and soybean crop conditions are dropping (56% good-to-excellent for corn, 58% for soybean), falling below the five-year average of 59%, with concerns about yields and quality.",
        "timestamp": "14:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brazil's second corn crop (Safrinha) is a major concern, as a strong El Niño could severely impact it, though current planting progress and estimates for the first crop are still good.",
        "timestamp": "15:54",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The full impact of El Niño, particularly its intensity and duration, will only be definitively known once the event has completely passed.",
        "timestamp": "21:16",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "Disaster, state of emergency declared",
        "metric": "Fishmeal/Fish Oil Production",
        "period": "January-present",
        "source": "Peruvian government"
      },
      {
        "value": "0.9 million tons (vs. 1.9 million ton quota, normally 3.5-4.5 million tons)",
        "metric": "First fish catch",
        "source": "Peruvian government"
      },
      {
        "value": "471,000 tons",
        "metric": "First fish catch (updated)",
        "source": "Peruvian government"
      },
      {
        "value": "Down by about 50%",
        "metric": "Fishmeal production",
        "source": "Peruvian government"
      },
      {
        "value": "Down by about 30%",
        "metric": "Fish oil production",
        "source": "Peruvian government"
      },
      {
        "value": "Hottest June on record in Europe, second hottest in the world",
        "metric": "June temperatures",
        "period": "June",
        "source": "European data"
      },
      {
        "value": "46-50.1 million tons (current range), started season at 59-63 million tons",
        "metric": "Maize crop estimates",
        "source": "European data"
      },
      {
        "value": "22-27 million tons (compared to less than 19 last year)",
        "metric": "European import requirements",
        "source": "European data"
      },
      {
        "value": "4% (down from 5% last year)",
        "metric": "Winter wheat planted",
        "source": "French data"
      },
      {
        "value": "90% of normal",
        "metric": "Monsoon rains",
        "period": "May 29th",
        "source": "Indian data"
      },
      {
        "value": "36",
        "metric": "Ships per day",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "32",
        "metric": "Ships per day",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "29.5",
        "metric": "Ships per day",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "Initially 17.5 million tons (from 35), then 25-31, now expected 30-31 million tons",
        "metric": "Wheat production estimates",
        "source": "Australian data"
      },
      {
        "value": "56% good to excellent",
        "metric": "Corn crop conditions",
        "source": "US data"
      },
      {
        "value": "58% good to excellent",
        "metric": "Soybean crop conditions",
        "source": "US data"
      },
      {
        "value": "Below 5-year average of 59%",
        "metric": "Corn/Soybean crop conditions",
        "source": "US data"
      },
      {
        "value": "Started at 183 bushels/acre, then 178.5 last month, pre-report estimates at 177.7",
        "metric": "Corn yield estimate",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "173.75-185.6 million tons (wide range)",
        "metric": "Soybean estimates",
        "source": "Brazilian data"
      },
      {
        "value": "145.6-148 million tons (all records)",
        "metric": "Corn estimates",
        "source": "Brazilian data"
      },
      {
        "value": "38%",
        "metric": "First corn crop planted",
        "source": "Brazilian data"
      },
      {
        "value": "7.3% (against 9% last year)",
        "metric": "Soybean crop planted",
        "source": "Brazilian data"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video provides a detailed analysis of El Niño's impact on various commodities and regions, including its timing, effects on production, and market perceptions, directly addressing the requested topics."
  },
  "video_id": "CYIFqQl-vN8",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYIFqQl-vN8",
  "transcript": "In our first episode, we explained how El Niño can affect crops, vegetable oils and fish supplies. This time we're asking whether markets have got the timing right. What is already happening, what may still lie ahead, and how do we separate El Niño's influence from other pressures on food production and trade. Joining us again to help make sense of it all is Bertrand Oesterle, VP of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX. Welcome back, Bert. Morning, Jana. Thank you for being here on part two. So, let's settle this once and for all. Has El Niño started? So, that's going to be possibly the simplest question you're going to ask me today. Um, the simple answer is, yes, it has. So, when we look at the array of analysts that we follow, everyone agrees on the fact that it has started. Uh, there's still disagreement on when it started, and we'll probably come to cover that. Yeah. Uh, but the simple answer is, yes, it has begun. Okay. So, what's the difference between its arrival, its peak, and the point when we actually feel its effects? So, that's a very difficult question to answer. So, its arrival, it's anything from January to September. Its peak, the consensus is October to December, and its lingering effects all the way to March, although some are saying all the way to June next year. So, it can be something seen as a short event to an extended event. Okay. So, as I understood it, El Niño is expected to strengthen between December and last and to March, which is what you just said. But do its effects follow that same timeline? So, not quite. And, uh, people will be able to refer themselves to the first video we did where we had that timeline world of the map, or map of the world, I should say. Um, where we went from region to region and saying it's going to affect that region at that time, this region at that time, and trying to look at how it can affect a wheat crop, a maize crop, a corn crop, a soybean crop, or a fish production. So, the timeline is very different according to a crop cycle and to a region. Okay. So then, my next question is, have markets got the timing wrong then? Because we were already seeing problems back in January with fishmeal and fish oil production. Could that have been a sign that, well, an early sign, basically, that it had started already? Absolutely. And that's my main argument about the timing being wrong. And that's why it becomes very interesting because I've been a grains and oilseed person at heart for the past 20 years. Yeah. I've only started to look at, uh, salmon production about a year and a half ago. So, I'm a young fish in salmon. But the correlation between the two is very, very pertinent. In the sense that the fish world has been telling us that from January all the way to now, it's a fishmeal fish oil disaster, as you say. And we've had, uh, the Peruvian government mentioning a state of emergency on that issue. So, we mentioned last, um, in the last video that production levels were an awful lot lower. So, for example, 0.9 million tons of catch compared to a 1.9 million ton quota this year for the first catch, when normally it's 3.5 to 4.5. We had an update this morning. That catch may only have achieved 471,000 tons, so it's even worse than what we thought. Yeah. And then the, uh, marine department of the Peruvian government is saying that the second catch may not take place because the sea temperatures are still too high. Yeah. And there's too many juvenile fish. Hmm. So, the grain and oilseed world should have taken notes of that very early signal in the fishmeal, fish oil, and fish production cycle. Of course, because you, because it were early signs. Okay. Um, you and I have talked a lot about heatwaves, um, this summer, European heatwaves. We both experienced it here in Europe. Uh, we talked about low river levels, um, the uncertainty over crop yields. So, how confidently can we connect those developments to El Niño? So, when we start to say from the fish side that it started in January, then it becomes obvious with hindsight that when we look at this map on screen, Yeah. And everyone would have seen that map in June, um, the five consecutive heatwaves we've had in Europe and the Black Sea, Yeah. must have been part of an El Niño effect as well. So, when we look at the data, June was the hottest June on record in Europe. It was the second hottest June in the world. And then you mentioned the river levels, um, the Rhine River, the Danube River went to new record low levels. Yeah. To the point that I made a, um, joke in Germany when I made this presentation on El Niño, by saying that 150 years ago, if the Rhine had been 23 centimeters like this year, the French would have invaded Germany instead of the reverse. Um, so, I mean, joke apart, it, it is figures, record figures that indicate that certainly El Niño was pre-September because we've experienced those heatwaves from June to August. Um, and those heatwaves have had a major impact on the European sea. So, we've mentioned the maize impact. So, for example, we have a crop in maize in Europe, which is from 46 to 50.1 million tons in terms of range of estimates we currently have. At the start of this season, we were talking, uh, 59 to 63, so we're way away from that. Yeah. Then the import requirements are 22 to 27 million tons compared to less than 19 last year. So, again, it puts the focus on potential imports. And those heatwaves, that's where the effect puts itself also with the war effect from the Black Sea region. In the sense that Europe finds itself in a situation where it needs more maize, it needs more rapeseed, but the Ukrainians can't quite export right now because of the Black Sea war situation. And it puts everything together, and it compounds the issues also for the feed industry in Europe. In the sense that we've mentioned with those heatwaves, less grazing, Yeah. very sorry-looking cows when I went to France about a month ago. Um, and the very difficult decision from cattle herders to decide, do we feed those herds or do we cut those herds? Yeah. And for the moment, we still have this very difficult situation in Europe where export markets are still very much in demand because the Mediterranean basin and the Middle East are turning towards Europe, whether it's the Baltics, Germany, Poland, France, Romania, Bulgaria, in order to get supplies that currently is not available because of logistical nightmares out of Ukraine and Russia. So, when you put all this together, you suddenly see that we have had an early El Niño event for us in Europe, which has compounded with the war resumption in Ukraine, Russia, and it's creating a lot of uncertainties and complications. And those complications go even further. So, here we're talking the current crop, but we could affect the next crop. Of course. And the next crop could be affected by two ways. So, the first one is weather-related. It's still very dry in Europe. So, for example, the French are telling us that they're starting to plant their winter wheat. It's 4% planted. It's very early stage, but it's down from 5% last year because it's still very dry. And when we look at, uh, Ukraine, it's the compounding effect again of having that dryness, but also having less exports, which means less money to finance the next crop. And that next crop planting in winter wheat is about the halfway mark, but the government is saying, careful, we might have an area that might be 17% lower than last year. Okay. Now, I want to move over to Asia because we don't have much time. Um, but there were August wildfires in Indonesia. There was the Indian monsoon that didn't happen, basically. Can you talk to me a little bit about that and whether those were also signs that were earlier than expected? Exactly. So, again, assumption. In hindsight. It starts with, it starts in September. But we knew from the 29th of May that we had some data out of India saying that the monsoon, the monsoon rains were 90% of the norm, that it was a failure, and that it was the effect of El Niño. So, if you again look at the timeline, if we think that El Niño starts in September, why did we know in May, end of May, that there was an El Niño rain issue in India? Yeah. Um, and then similarly, when you mentioned Indonesia, um, Indonesia had wildfires in August, and those wildfires were said to be El Niño wildfires and earlier than normal. Again, August, again, against a consensus start in September. So, that's where those timelines differ and make us question the veracity of the consensus data. Okay. So that brings us basically to the autumn. How were the lacks of rain affecting Panama, which is obviously such an important passage? Mhm. So, again, the timeline is important because we started to hear about Panama in August. Um, so, El Niño temperatures, according to the Panama government, was so high that it is reducing the rains. Reducing rains means less water for those reservoirs that feed into the locks of the Panama Canal. And when we look at the data, in August, um, we had 36 ships a day. Then that was reduced in September to 32 ships per day. And for October, it's been reduced to 29.5 ships per day. So, we already see that against a consensus of a start in September, that we already had issues in Panama in August, and they are feeding through all the way to October. What about, I feel like I'm jumping all over the map. Um, what about Australia? Because that's another place where dry weather, um, well, where we're experiencing dry weather, but it actually could be helpful. Mhm. In a way, and that's to the wheat harvest. So, here again, it's very interesting to see how the perception of El Niño has progressed. Yeah. And we mentioned it in the previous video when we said that since June all the way to now, the risk of El Niño has grown from 40% to 90%. And I said last time that El Niño has a dynamic perception element to it. And that dynamic perception element goes from fear to facts. And Australia is a very good example of that fear to fact. When we started with a fear element on Australia, people were saying it's going to be a 50% drop in production, so from 35 to 17.5 million tons. We saw those estimates between 25 and 31. And now we're getting to the point where that crop is there, and it's starting to be harvested. And when we speak to our colleagues, they're saying that we had good rain at the start of the season. The farmers have applied fertilizers. They're starting that harvest. The harvest is expected from October to December. And if the weather is dry from now, it should allow that harvest to be quicker. And people are saying it should be a 31 or 30-31 million ton crop. So, the disaster has been avoided, and the facts are that El Niño wasn't that bad for Australia so far. Okay. So that brings us now to the US harvest. Um, what are the concerns now? And like in Australia, could winter wheat actually benefit from what comes next? So, there's two elements to the US side. Initially, the presumption was that El Niño would be beneficial to winter wheat from the planting all the way to development. So, a next winter wheat crop in Kansas that could very much benefit from El Niño. Yeah. But alongside that, there was also an assumption that before that occurred, it would be beneficial for harvesting of the current corn and current soybean crops in the US. Yeah. Now, what we've seen since is that US corn and that US soybean harvest being hampered by rain. So, it looks like those rains are actually earlier than we thought they would be. And that is definitely showing in the crop conditions. So, we've mentioned it, um, over and over. Those crop conditions are dropping. So, for example, they're 56% good to excellent in corn. They're 58% good to excellent in soybean. They're below the five-year average of 59%. And then we've had some concerns about yields or quality. So, we mentioned this week this discussion about the soybean of another color, so the SBOC. Um, so that's the quality element. Yeah. But also there's that big question mark and that very heated debate about yields. What are corn yields in the US? So, when we look at the USDA, it started with a 183 bushel per acre with its first estimate. Yeah. And those estimates have only come down, and they were 178.5 last month. Later today, we've got another WASDE report where pre-report estimates are showing a 177.7 estimate for corn yields. When we have a wide variety of estimates where, for example, our own survey is still at 182.1, and we had, for example, Pro Farmer at 173.2. So, that wide variety of estimates also shows that when you look at El Niño and when you look at all the figures we've already mentioned, they can be very far apart. So much uncertainty. Um, what about, what about Brazil? So, Brazil for me is still the big question mark ahead. Um, if the weather specialists are right, and if we still have a much bigger El Niño to come, I.e., a much stronger intensity from October to December, Yeah. lingering all the way to March. Which is the consensus right now out there. It's the consensus. Absolutely. So then, Brazil could be badly affected. So, that's the big risk, especially the second corn crop in Brazil, the Safrinha crop. Um, people have said that we could compare this El Niño to the 97-98 event. And when we look at those figures, it's very hard to draw conclusions because at the time the crops in Brazil were 30 to 35 million tons, when nowadays they're 180 in soybean, they're 140 in corn. So, it's very difficult to assess the relationship between those two events. But when you try to do so, then suddenly you have estimates which show an alarming element on soybean at 150 to 165 million tons, for example, or potentially all the way to 215 million tons. Um, and in corn, people are saying, well, it could be a disaster. It could be 110-120 million tons. But when we look at the planting progress so far and the estimates we've had so far, they're still very good. And what is interesting is that when we spoke to our Brazilian colleagues about a month ago, they were not concerned about themselves. They were concerned about what we've just mentioned about the US, which has come to play. Yeah. Um, so, to come back on those estimates, we see a range of estimates at 173.75 million tons to 185.6 million tons in soybean. From all those estimates we've seen, the lowest one is the only one alongside the 178 from another player that are below record, and the other six or seven we have are new records. Yeah. Uh, and similarly in corn, we've got estimates which are all better than last year and all records, um, in a range of 145.6 to 148 million tons. So, again, it becomes very difficult because you have on the one side the alarmists saying that it could be a disaster, and then so far we've got estimates which don't show any sign of a disaster. So, then we turn to the elements that we can't, um, assess right now, which is planting. And when we look at, um, the planting figures, the first corn crop is 38% planted. There's nothing special about that element. And then when we look at the soybean crop, it's 7.3% planted against 9% last year. So, we mentioned that in the previous video of the week where we said that the soybean crop had been planted ahead of the pace of last year, and suddenly dropped in that rate, and people asked the question, is it finally El Niño starting to show the tip of its nose, or is it something else? And we think it's something else in the sense that it's rain, which have slowed that planting progress, but those rains should be beneficial for later. So, again, it puts that question mark of the timing and the expected impact all the way to December or March still in question, and that's going to be for us the main area of focus ahead for El Niño watch. Well, let's actually go there because let's look at Europe, for example, next spring. Could wetter weather in April and June mean that the effects continue to be felt and seen beyond that March window? That's exactly the point. So, we've been talking of a consensus September start, October, December, Yeah. lingering all the way to March. But then what are we talking April to June next year for Europe? It should be finished. So, the fact that we're already talking of a lingering effect all the way to April, June next year in Europe means that that timing is much longer and maybe displaced in the timeline that we had in mind. Yeah. And that April, June timeline for Europe could mean extra rain, excessive rain. And if those were to occur, then it could mean a quality issue for wheat in particular in Northern Europe. Okay, then, wrap it all up for us. Did the market get the timing wrong in the end? In my view, we did get that timing very wrong. Um, consensus from the weather specialists, again, Sep, Oct, Dec, March. We see from the fish area that it started in Jan. We see from the last bit we've mentioned, it could be all the way to June next year. So, this El Niño is a much wider timeline El Niño event from what we've been able to assess. Um, where everyone seems to agree is intensity. Everyone seems to agree that it's a super El Niño, a monster El Niño. The big question mark is how much worse can it get from here? Because we still don't know. Well, have we already reached its peak? Exactly. And then the second bit is, uh, so, apart from intensity, it's that timing. And that timing is what we've just explained, it's very questionable. And all this comes into a focus of an already very difficult grains and oilseed picture where we've got the Strait of Hormuz complicating transport, with the Black Sea region as well in terms of transport, both having an impact also on energy prices. We've got the Panama question, and we have weather issues worldwide, not just in the regions that we've mentioned specifically, and it makes a very difficult picture for people to trade. And to conclude on my side, the thing I would finally say is that maybe we will only know the full impacts of El Niño when it has fully passed. Well, Bert, I look forward to talking to you next summer and seeing what exactly did happen. Thank you so much again for this wonderful insight. And thank you to our viewers for watching. If you missed part one of this series, go ahead and click on the link below. Until then, thank you for watching, and for more financial content, don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel.",
  "description": "El Niño crop impact is showing up earlier than the official timeline suggests, from failed monsoon rains in India to heat waves across Europe.\n\nIn part 2 of his El Niño coverage, Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales, explains when El Niño started, when it may peak and why its effects vary by crop and region.\n\nEarly signals came from Peru fishmeal production, while reduced rainfall cut daily transits through the Panama Canal. The conversation also covers the European maize crop, U.S. corn yields, Australia's wheat harvest and the risks to the Brazil soybean crop.\n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/collections/all?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_bertrand_oesterle&utm_content=share\n\n0:00 El Niño Has Started, but When\n2:17 Fishmeal Crisis Flashed Early\n5:20 Europe's Maize Crop Takes Heat\n9:24 Monsoon Miss to Panama Canal\n11:15 Australia's Wheat Fear Fades\n13:04 U.S. Corn Yields Spark a Fight\n15:12 Brazil Soy and Corn on Watch\n18:42 El Niño 's Tail Runs Into June\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#ElNiño #StoneX #BertrandOesterle",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T18:03:07Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/CYIFqQl-vN8/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-09",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
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