Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 05:17 PM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 05:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Markets Now Report Analysis 10/9 USDA's 2.7 BPA Corn Yield Increase a Gut Punch

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Markets Now Report Analysis 10/9 USDA's 2.7 BPA Corn Yield Increase a Gut Punch",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@FarmJournal",
    "title": "Farm Journal",
    "handle": "farmjournal",
    "channel_id": "UCqTizkFSbhBojVtIkjMEoZQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Further increase in corn/soybean yields in November USDA reports.",
      "Lack of significant Chinese demand for agricultural products.",
      "No major crop issues in South America (e.g., from El Niño).",
      "Continued slow pace of wheat exports from the US.",
      "Quality issues in US soybean crop due to excessive rain potentially impacting usage."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "USDA WASDE Report",
      "Corn Market",
      "Soybean Market",
      "Wheat Market",
      "Crop Yields",
      "Ending Stocks",
      "Demand (Feed, Export, Industrial)",
      "Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
      "South American Crop Conditions",
      "Chinese Demand",
      "Black Sea Exports",
      "El Niño",
      "Grain Quality Issues"
    ],
    "summary": "The video analyzes the latest USDA WASDE report, highlighting a significant increase in corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, which is seen as bearish for corn prices. Soybean yields also increased slightly, but the market is more concerned about potential quality issues due to excessive rain and future South American crop conditions. Wheat ending stocks are up, but export pace is slow, contributing to an overall cautious outlook for grains unless significant demand or South American production issues emerge.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Michelle Rook",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Reporter/Analyst"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brian Splitt",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Analyst from AgMarket.Net"
      },
      {
        "name": "AgMarket.Net",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Brian Splitt's affiliation"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Source of WASDE report"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Primary commodity discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "Soybeans",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Commodity discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Commodity discussed"
      },
      {
        "name": "Iowa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned for rain impacting corn"
      },
      {
        "name": "South America",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned for future crop cycle and El Niño impact"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned for potential demand"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea Region",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned for export issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned as an alternative exporter"
      },
      {
        "name": "Australia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned as an alternative exporter"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kansas",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Mentioned for producer's corn crop quality issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Weather pattern impacting South American crops"
      },
      {
        "name": "Stonex",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Mentioned for corn yield estimates"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Corn yield increased by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels per acre in the October WASDE report.",
        "timestamp": "00:39",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Stonex had been above 180 for corn yield, while USDA had been lower.",
        "timestamp": "00:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The corn yield number was as bearish as it could get.",
        "timestamp": "01:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn beginning stocks increased by 173 million bushels.",
        "timestamp": "01:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn demand categories saw increases: feed residual up 50 million, exports up 25 million, food/seed/industrial up 50 million.",
        "timestamp": "01:43",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Total corn demand increased by 125 million bushels.",
        "timestamp": "01:54",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Total corn carryout is 1.849 billion bushels.",
        "timestamp": "01:58",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Corn stocks-to-use ratio briefly fell below 10% last month (9.7%) and is now back to 11.3%.",
        "timestamp": "02:04",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 10% stocks-to-use ratio is a key separator for long-term bull markets.",
        "timestamp": "02:12",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The wind has been taken out of the sails for a long-term bull market conversation in corn.",
        "timestamp": "02:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The concern for corn is that yields were raised significantly from last month, and what will happen in November.",
        "timestamp": "03:12",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean yield increased by 0.3 bushels per acre to 53.1 bushels per acre.",
        "timestamp": "04:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean carry-in from last year's crop was down 10 million bushels from last month.",
        "timestamp": "05:04",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybean demand increased by 12 million bushels.",
        "timestamp": "05:13",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Overall soybean production increased by 17 million bushels, with a net addition of 5 million bushels to the new crop balance sheet.",
        "timestamp": "05:18",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The soybean yield increase is a \"pretty big victory\" considering expectations.",
        "timestamp": "05:29",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The concern for soybeans is if yields will go up again in November, especially with quality issues in the Western Corn Belt.",
        "timestamp": "05:34",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Wheat ending stocks went up 23 million bushels to 740 million bushels.",
        "timestamp": "06:49",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Wheat feed residual increased, but exports have decreased, and the pace of sales is not good.",
        "timestamp": "07:16",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The overall feed grain pile is increasing.",
        "timestamp": "07:33",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The only hope for the market is China demand or a South American crop issue (like a Super El Niño).",
        "timestamp": "08:31",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "China buying corn would be an opportune time given the current price correction.",
        "timestamp": "09:11",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The corn market has seen an 80-cent correction off the September high in December corn.",
        "timestamp": "09:19",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Soybeans can break away from corn's movement if they have their own story.",
        "timestamp": "09:57",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "It doesn't seem like new crop corn will need to work as hard to get additional acres.",
        "timestamp": "10:07",
        "importance": "medium"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Previous expected yield number",
        "value": "178",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Potential lower bound for market residence",
        "value": "4.60",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "support"
      },
      {
        "note": "Potential upper bound for market residence",
        "value": "4.80",
        "instrument": "Corn",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "High from which the market corrected",
        "value": "5.50",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Low reached today (implied from 80 cents off 5.50)",
        "value": "4.70",
        "instrument": "December Corn",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "181.2 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Corn Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "173 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Beginning Stocks",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 50 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Feed Residual Demand",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 25 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Exports",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "up 50 million bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Food, Seed, and Industrial Demand",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased by 125 million bushels",
        "metric": "Total Corn Demand",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.849 billion bushels",
        "metric": "Corn Carryout",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "9.7%",
        "metric": "Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
        "period": "September",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "11.3%",
        "metric": "Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "53.1 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "Soybean Yield",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "down 10 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Carry-in (from last year's crop)",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased by 12 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Demand",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "17 million bushels",
        "metric": "Soybean Production Increase",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "740 million bushels",
        "metric": "Wheat Ending Stocks",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "increased",
        "metric": "Wheat Feed Residual",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      },
      {
        "value": "decreased on the balance sheet",
        "metric": "Wheat Exports",
        "period": "October",
        "source": "USDA WASDE Report"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses USDA reports and their impact on corn, soybean, and wheat markets."
  },
  "video_id": "_iokQloD-OE",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iokQloD-OE",
  "transcript": "Markets Now is brought to you by Brevant Seeds. There are wins, and then there are wins you get with Brevant Seeds. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at brevant.com/changethegame. And by Golden Harvest. The next generation of seed technology is here, and we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. And welcome to Markets Now and report analysis. I'm Michelle Rook with Brian Splitt of AgMarket.Net here on a WASDE Friday. And Brian, thanks for being with me. Not the best report we've had here. Let's start off with corn, the gut punch here. Yield up 2.7 bushels per acre, 181.2. Who'd have thought we'd be up that much? Uh, Stonex, I guess, right? Um, they've been above 180 the whole time, and everybody's kind of gone through the motions with the USDA, thinking that with the yield reduction we saw last month, uh, that we were going to still kind of reside around that 178-ish type of a number. And, um, you know, with all of the rain that was in Iowa and and, uh, some of the early harvest reports we're hearing for corn, uh, the thought was that we would maybe see yield come down a touch more. So there was a pretty big spread between the low-end estimate and the and the upper-end estimate, but, uh, this number definitely was on the, uh, the about as bearish as you could get, uh, type of a number for yield. Now, uh, we knew the beginning stocks were going to increase, and they did accordingly, the 173 million bushels. Um, so the only saving grace was some of these, uh, increases in in the demand categories. Uh, you know, looking at the feed residual up 50, the, uh, exports up 25, uh, um, the, uh, uh, food and seed and industrial up 50. So total demand was increased by 125 million bushels. Uh, so that gives us a total carryout of 1.849, but, uh, we very briefly had stocks to use below 10% at 9.7% last month, and now we're back to 11.3%. So, uh, that 10% number really kind of being a key, uh, uh, stocks-to-use percentage that separates, you know, the possibility of bigger picture long-term bull markets. So, uh, we've definitely seen the wind taken out of the sails for that conversation today. Yeah, and I know there's going to be producers in some areas that are not going to believe this because they look out their back door and their crop has gotten smaller since the last WASDE. But to absorb over 280 million bushels of ending stocks here, how much lower do corn prices have to go, do you think? Well, we've already seen a a limit, uh, move in the market thus far. We'll see if there's a settlement of limit down or not, but, uh, we're very quickly, you know, uh, uh, having overpriced ourselves to the upside, and now if we're at a 1.85 type of a carryout number, uh, this market may want to reside between 460 to 480 for a little while if I had to just throw a guess out there, but, uh, um, you know, the concern moving forward is they just raised yield quite a bit from last month, and and now what do they do in November? Yeah, that's right. Do big crops get bigger? Is that the mentality here or? That would be the concern, right? I mean, the the with the adjustment as big as it was from September to October, um, which, you know, again, lower in August, lower in September, uh, just to make this big jump in in October would be, uh, you know, counter to what the typical behavior would be, especially a jump this large. Yeah. And that world ending stocks up over 8 million metric tons from last month as well. Um, what about soybeans? Yeah, and I think that that world number's been a big part of why the funds have been as long as they have been. Um, and so, you know, we were thinking world stocks were going to be down 30 plus million tons year over year, uh, to to take a big bite out of that narrative, uh, is extremely disappointing. And so now this really puts the onus on something to happen on, uh, you know, Super El Niño in South America to even think about price levels that we were trading at, uh, in September. Yeah. Let's talk about soybeans. Yield here up 0.3 bushels per acre to 53.1 bushels per acre. Is that a victory? Because a lot of people thought it maybe could have gone up more with some of the early results that we're hearing in Central and Eastern Corn Belt areas. Yeah, I mean, that's why this corn number's such a surprise because I think early reports suggest, yeah, bean yields are turning out pretty great. Uh, corn yields, uh, from just anecdotal conversations have been okay, uh, some areas really good, but a lot of disappointment out there, especially compared to last year. Uh, so thoughts were that maybe beans, uh, would overperform on yield on this report relative to corn. That wasn't the case. So up 0.3 bushels per acre. Um, and so production did go up. The carry-in from last year's crop was was 10 million bushels, uh, down from last month, which we knew from the quarterly stocks. Uh, they did re, uh, increase demand, uh, by, uh, 12 million bushels. So overall, we had a production increase, uh, of 17 million, and we had, uh, demand increase of 12. So only 5 million bushels get added to the new crop balance sheet for soybeans. That's a pretty big victory, I think, all things considered, but then the again, the concern is going to be if yield went up today, and we just saw what the USDA did with corn, what do they do with bean yield in November? Um, and it might make it pretty difficult to maintain an uptrend, uh, into that report unless China's buying big or we see a major narrative shift to concerns about Brazilian soybeans. Yeah. Although, I will have lots of farmers over in the Western Corn Belt that are going to argue about yield going up on soybeans into November with all of the quality issues that they've been getting out in the fields here with all this excessive rain. Are you hearing the same thing? Well, yeah, and I mean, I just talked to a producer in in, uh, Kansas this morning that was getting through his corn and has a lot of, uh, sprouted kernels in his corn crop as well. Um, so I don't know, you know, if if the quality thing is going to lead directly into a yield, uh, but it may be something that we find over the course of the marketing year, we end up using a lot more of this crop, uh, in certain low-quality areas. Uh, so there may be some some basis, uh, ramifications because of that. Uh, but I I don't know if it's a a flat price issue, uh, um, at least not yet. Yeah. Uh, wheat ending stocks went up 23 million bushels to 740 million bushels. Still a very tight crop this year because of production issues. Give me your thoughts there. So on the on the wheat, we did have the, uh, overall ending stocks higher, and, uh, the planted area was reduced a little bit. Uh, we did have yield up a touch, so that put production up, I think it was just a couple million bushels, nothing really material. Um, we did see feed residual increase, but exports have been, uh, uh, decreased on the balance sheet. Our pace of sales for wheat is not doing so hot. Uh, so overall ending stocks up a little bit. Um, again, this it it just kind of adds to the overall feed grain pile. Um, now, we could go right back to the Black Sea region and a lack of exports out of out of that region, and what the world has been doing is going to other exporters besides the US. So going to Europe, going to Australia. Um, so maybe at some point down the road, uh, when these other world exporters' supplies are drawn down, and if we're still dealing with the Black Sea narrative a few months down the road, uh, maybe exports will start coming in our way. They just haven't done so yet. Um, but, uh, uh, the overall right now, maybe there's been some short-term concerns about the planting pace of the hard red crop out west, but it's been some rain, so they should be getting at it pretty soon. And, uh, so right now, uh, it's just big picture between this and the corn number, um, there's not much to to be a buyer of. Yeah, for sure. And sorry, I had the world ending stocks number wrong, incorrect there. Um, overall, do you think the only hope for this market now is that we get some China demand or a South American crop issue? Is that our only hope of holding things together here or not? I mean, those seem to be the two things that, uh, you know, if we're looking for production to, uh, to tighten up somewhere, that's the next, uh, crop cycle that we're going to be looking at is the South American crop. So, uh, that and and, yeah, a resurgence of of Chinese demand. Uh, if China was going to come in and and buy some corn, uh, and that was going to be part of maybe that additional 17 billion dollars of agricultural purchases on top of the 25 million tons of soybean purchases, uh, this this would be an opportune time for them to do that. Uh, on on, you know, this is a a pretty big correction off of the highs. What are we about 80 cents off of the highs in in, uh, December corn from September high to, uh, to the low here today? Yeah, from 550, that's where we started, for sure. And soybeans, uh, Yeah, 550 to 470. Um, the ending stocks obviously on soybeans look like we could hold in here, but if corn is going down, then soybeans are likely to follow, or can soybeans independently stay up here? Uh, I mean, I I think the corn market's pricing in an awful lot very quickly, just like they did on the September stocks report. So we may just see it where it reprices very quickly and then chops around for a little bit. And I do think soybeans, if they have their own story, they can break away from what corn's doing. Uh, and and now with the additional stocks from last year, plus this year's yield, uh, it doesn't seem like we're going to have to work quite as hard for new crop corn to to get those additional acres. All right, thanks so much. That is Brian Splitt with AgMarket.Net and Markets Now. Tight margins, tough conditions, relentless pressures. At Golden Harvest, we know your challenges don't slow down, but then neither do we. Backed by Syngenta R&D and innovations like Duracade trait technology, we pair locally tested solutions with seed advisor expertise to deliver real results on your acres. Because when it comes to next-gen technology, we've got it in the bag. See what's next at goldenharvestseeds.com. Duracade hybrids now available for the 2027 season. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You win so big, the very ground beneath your feet cries tears of joy. You win so big that second place feels like a participation trophy. You win so big, you might as well be harvesting buried treasure. Oh, sorry, just one more. When you choose Brevant Seeds, you don't just win. You hit the damn jackpot. Don't just win, win. Talk with your retailer or visit brevant.com/jackpot to get started.",
  "description": "Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T17:07:34Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/_iokQloD-OE/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-09",
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