Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 11:17 AM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 11:18 AM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

What Milk Production's Slowdown Means for Dairy Stockpiles

Data Preview

{
  "title": "What Milk Production's Slowdown Means for Dairy Stockpiles",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Weather-related supply risks (general)",
      "Further slowdown in milk production growth depending on weather (Europe, New Zealand)",
      "El Niño's impact on New Zealand's milk production (potential for no growth in Q4/Q1)",
      "Air pocket in demand once stockpiling ends."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Global Dairy Markets",
      "Milk Production",
      "Dairy Demand",
      "Weather Impacts (El Niño)",
      "Feed Costs",
      "Dairy Herd Expansion (US, EU, UK, New Zealand)",
      "Dairy Prices (Milk, Cheese, Non-fat dry milk)",
      "Processing Capacity",
      "Stockpiling"
    ],
    "summary": "Global dairy markets firmed in Q3 due to strong demand and weather-related supply risks, despite better-than-expected milk production. Milk production growth has slowed across major exporting regions, particularly in Europe, while the US herd expansion has been a supportive factor. Global demand has been robust, leading to some stockpiling, and El Niño poses a risk to New Zealand's milk production, potentially limiting growth in Q4 and Q1.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Nate Donnay",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Director of Dairy Market Insight at StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Host of the video, Nate Donnay's employer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Experienced adverse weather, milk production growth slowing"
      },
      {
        "name": "EU 27",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Milk production growth slowed from 5.1% in March to 0.8% in August"
      },
      {
        "name": "UK",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Milk production growth slowed from 5.1% in March to 0.8% in August"
      },
      {
        "name": "US",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Milk production growth slowed from >5% in Dec to 2.8% in Aug, dairy herd expanded by 388,000 cows"
      },
      {
        "name": "New Zealand",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Milk production season off to a good start, but El Niño is a concern for later in the season, no growth expected in Q4/Q1 during El Niño periods."
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Weather phenomenon impacting milk production, especially in Southern Hemisphere."
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Global milk equivalent imports excluding China are up 8.3%, shipments to China up 1.8%."
      },
      {
        "name": "Asia",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Imports of dairy commodities are up."
      },
      {
        "name": "Middle East",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Imports of dairy commodities are up."
      },
      {
        "name": "South America",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Imports of dairy commodities are up."
      },
      {
        "name": "Milk",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Global production and demand trends."
      },
      {
        "name": "Cheese",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Imports are up, US cheese-producing areas feeling pain from lower milk prices."
      },
      {
        "name": "Butter",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Imports are up."
      },
      {
        "name": "Whole Milk Powder",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Imports are up."
      },
      {
        "name": "Skim Milk Powder",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Imports are up."
      },
      {
        "name": "Non-fat dry milk",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Near record high prices in the US."
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Global dairy markets firmed in Q3 due to strong demand and weather-related supply risks, despite better-than-expected milk production.",
        "timestamp": "00:04",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Milk production growth across major dairy exporting regions has slowed from over 5% in March to less than 2% in August, with further slowdowns expected.",
        "timestamp": "00:41",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Europe has seen the biggest hit, with EU 27 and UK production growth dropping from 5.1% in March to 0.8% in August, potentially dipping below year-ago levels in Q4 and Q1.",
        "timestamp": "01:21",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US milk production growth has slowed from over 5% in December to 2.8% in August, but the expansion of the US dairy herd (388,000 cows in two years) is a supportive factor, likely keeping growth above 2%.",
        "timestamp": "01:37",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Adverse weather, particularly in Europe, and higher feed costs are contributing to the slowdown in milk production growth.",
        "timestamp": "01:07",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Global dairy demand has been exceptionally strong, with global milk equivalent imports (excluding China) up 8.3% over the past 12 months, a record increase.",
        "timestamp": "02:38",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "This strong demand is broad-based, not driven by a single country or product, and indicates some level of stockpiling by buyers due to fears about future supply.",
        "timestamp": "03:31",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The US dairy herd has expanded by 388,000 cows in the past two years, a record expansion.",
        "timestamp": "05:20",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "While overall US margins are getting tighter due to lower milk prices in cheese-producing areas and higher feed costs, farmers crossbreeding a significant number of animals still have above-average margins.",
        "timestamp": "06:11",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The market is not yet signaling farmers to sell off cows, but the incentive to build the herd is weaker.",
        "timestamp": "06:27",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "New investments in processing capacity coming online in the next 18 months will support mild expansion in US milk production.",
        "timestamp": "06:37",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "El Niño's impact on milk production varies by event and region, but historically, New Zealand tends not to see growth in milk production during Q4 and Q1 El Niño periods.",
        "timestamp": "07:07",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Despite good weather and strong milk collections in New Zealand for the first three months of the season, significant growth is unlikely in late Q4 and Q1 due to the strong El Niño.",
        "timestamp": "08:14",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": ">5%",
        "metric": "Milk production growth",
        "period": "March",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "<2%",
        "metric": "Milk production growth",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "5.1%",
        "metric": "EU 27 and UK milk production growth",
        "period": "March",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "0.8%",
        "metric": "EU 27 and UK milk production growth",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": ">5%",
        "metric": "US milk production growth",
        "period": "December",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.8%",
        "metric": "US milk production growth",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "Up 8.3%",
        "metric": "Global milk equivalent imports (excluding China)",
        "period": "Past 12 months",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "Up ~1.8%",
        "metric": "Shipments to China",
        "period": "Last 12 months",
        "source": "StoneX"
      },
      {
        "value": "388,000 cows",
        "metric": "US dairy herd expansion",
        "period": "Past 2 years",
        "source": "StoneX"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses global dairy markets, milk production, demand, and the impact of weather phenomena like El Niño on supply."
  },
  "video_id": "zXu7QhYFsJM",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXu7QhYFsJM",
  "transcript": "Global dairy markets firmed in the third quarter as we saw strong demand and concerns about weather-related supply risks. At the same time, we saw better than expected milk production. To discuss which developments are likely to shape this market over the coming months, we're joined by Nate Donnay, Director of Dairy Market Insight at StoneX. Thank you for joining us, Nate. Thanks for having me. So, let's start with milk production. Where do you see the biggest potential shifts on this side of the dairy market and how might they affect global supply? Well, we've gone through a historic expansion in milk production across the major dairy exporting regions. We've gone from milk production up more than 5% as recently as March, and that's now slowed down to less than 2% growth here in August with further slowdowns expected. That very strong milk production growth has pushed down milk prices. We've seen feed costs step higher, and uh we've had some adverse weather, particularly in Europe this summer, and all of that together is expected to slow down the milk production growth in coming months. So, Europe's really taken the biggest hit so far. EU 27 and UK production went from about 5.1% growth back in March to just 0.8% growth in August, and that could dip below year-ago levels here in Q4 and Q1. In the US, the slowdown is uh less dramatic. We've gone from production over 5% growth back in December down to 2.8% growth here in August. The driver there, or the supportive factor, is really the fact that the US dairy herd has expanded by quite a bit. And that probably means that US milk production growth will stay above 2%, but that's significantly slower than the 4 to 5 to 6% numbers that we've seen over the past year. With New Zealand, the milk production season's off to a good start, but uh the weather later this season with El Niño is the big concern. So, production growth has slowed down across the major dairy exporters, and there's some risk that it slows down even further depending on how the weather turns out. Now, global dairy demand has been exceptionally strong, but some buyers may have built inventories. What will determine whether that demand continues in the months ahead? The global demand has been incredible, and it really doesn't get enough credit. We've seen this this record expansion in milk production, and we did see some downward pressure on dairy prices in the second half of 2025 and early 2026. But the the fact that we've had a record expansion in milk production and we didn't push dairy prices down to new record lows, we didn't push prices down to government support levels. Um, that suggests that the demand side has actually been good. And if we look at global milk equivalent imports over the past 12 months, if we subtract China, imports by everybody else are up 8.3%, which which is a record increase, I believe. Um, and even the shipments to China have been good as well over the last 12 months, up about 1.8%. When I dig into the numbers, there's no single country that's driving this, and there's no single dairy product. The imports of of cheese, butter, whole milk powder, skim milk powder, all the major dairy commodities are up, and you know, they're they're up for countries in Asia, they're up for countries in the Middle East, they're up for countries in South America. There's no single country or product that's been driving this demand. But when I look at these import trends relative to the long run, or excuse me, when I look at the import numbers relative to the long run trends, imports for a number of countries are running well above what you would normally expect, which to me indicates some level of stockpiling. Um, just because they're stockpiling now doesn't mean they're going to stop if fears about New Zealand supply and about the slowdown in milk production is driving this stockpiling behavior, then it could continue so long as uh those fears persist. So, we we think there's been some stockpiling, and at some point it's going to end, and we're going to hit a a kind of a air pocket in demand. But as long as there's a decent amount of fear about the supply side, then the buying will probably continue. Now, let's focus on the US. You mentioned earlier that the US herd being at its highest level in nearly 35 years. How could this large dairy herd and new processing capacity influence milk production over the coming two years? With the strong margins that we saw in 2024, along with this new revenue stream from crossbred calves in the US, um, and the increase in cheese processing capacity that we've seen over the past two years, we've we've added 388,000 cows to the dairy herd in the past two years. That's a record expansion in the herd. Now, uh, the milk prices have come down, especially in areas that produce a lot of cheese. Um, we have near record high non-fat dry milk prices in the US right now. So, in areas where they produce a lot of non-fat, particularly the West Coast and because of the pricing system that we have into the Northeast, uh, US, the milk prices there are very good, but in areas that are heavily driven by cheese, like the Upper Midwest and the South Central US, they're they're feeling more pain from lower milk prices. Um, so the milk prices have come down, particularly in cheese producing areas. Feed costs have shifted higher. Uh, the value of these crossbred calves have dropped since May. So, margins are getting tighter than they were last year, definitely tighter than they were two years ago, but for farmers that are crossbreeding a significant number of their animals, uh, my calculated margins are still above average. So, the market's not telling farmers to sell off cows yet, but the incentive to build the herd is a little bit weaker than it has been. There's still a lot of new investments in processing capacity that will be coming online in the next 18 months. So, the the we we still have conditions that support mild expansion in the herd, and that should drive some uh again, mild expansion in milk production moving forward. Now, the Southern Hemisphere is more directly impacted by El Niño. What should the market watch for in New Zealand and the Southern Hemisphere as El Niño strengthens? The impact from El Niño on milk production can vary uh quite a bit between El Niño events and between regions. We've gone through El Niño periods where it seemed to have very little impact on milk production in some regions, while have a devastating impact in other regions, or we've seen strong negative impact in a few countries but not much impact on New Zealand, which is the um a a big driver uh of global supply. Or we've seen strong impacts in New Zealand and not much impact in South America. So, it the impact can vary widely from event to event and from country to country. The strongest statement that I can make that is backed up by statistics is that during El Niño periods, we tend not to see growth in milk production out of New Zealand during the fourth quarter and the first quarter. So, production doesn't always collapse during El Niño, but at least for New Zealand, we tend not to see any growth. We know we're in a strong El Niño right now, and we're we just entered the fourth quarter. So far, weather conditions in New Zealand have been good. The milk collections for the first three months of the season have been strong. There's no imminent issue for New Zealand, but we're probably not going to get a whole lot of growth out of New Zealand late in Q4 and into Q1. But we have to wait and see what the exact impact ends up being on a country-by-country basis. Well, thank you very much for your analysis once again, Nate. Thank you. For more videos like this, please do like and subscribe.",
  "description": "Global milk production growth is slowing after a record expansion, as lower milk prices, higher feed costs and adverse weather weigh on supply. \n\nNate Donnay, Director of Dairy Market Insight at StoneX, explains where milk supply growth is cooling fastest and why global dairy buyers are still stockpiling. \n\nEU milk production growth has slowed more sharply than in the U.S., where a dairy herd that added 388,000 cows in two years keeps output growing. Dairy imports outside China are up 8.3% over 12 months across cheese, butter and milk powders, with signs of stockpiling tied to supply fears. During El Niño periods, New Zealand milk production has tended not to grow in the fourth and first quarters. \n\nDownload the StoneX 2026 Commodities Outlook: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/commodities-outlook/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=qr_code&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q4_26 \n\nDiscover Actionable Dairy Insights with StoneX Plus: \nhttps://shop.stonex.com/collections/dairy?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=qr_code&utm_campaign=mi_outlook_q_426_sxtv_nate_donnay \n\n00:00 - Milk Boom Meets Hungry Buyers \n00:41 - Global Milk Growth Loses Steam \n01:12 - Europe's Milk Takes the Hit \n02:25 - Dairy Imports Hide Stockpiles \n04:48 - U.S. Dairy Herd Outruns Prices \n06:53 - El Niño and New Zealand Milk \n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights. \n\n#StoneX #Dairy #NateDonnay #ElNino \n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T11:01:26Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zXu7QhYFsJM/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-09",
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