Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 09, 2026 at 10:17 AM

Completed At

October 09, 2026 at 10:18 AM

Duration

2 minutes

Headline

Treasury Yield Surge Leaves AI Bubble Waiting for a Shock

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Treasury Yield Surge Leaves AI Bubble Waiting for a Shock",
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    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
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  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Holding long-dated Treasuries in a rising yield environment",
      "AI bubble valuations getting too far ahead of themselves",
      "High long-term yields leading to unsustainable mortgage rates and freezing the housing sector",
      "Recessionary potential or fears leading to falling rates and impacting stocks",
      "Exorbitant interest rates adversely harming companies, especially indebted AI companies"
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Treasury yields",
      "Bond market",
      "Stock market",
      "AI bubble",
      "Inflation",
      "Monetary policy",
      "Technical analysis",
      "S&P 500 futures",
      "Nasdaq 100 futures"
    ],
    "summary": "The speaker discusses the recent surge in Treasury yields and the confusion surrounding its impact on the stock market. He argues that rising yields are a supply-demand issue for bonds, not necessarily a death knell for stocks, especially in a higher growth environment. He also touches on the 'AI bubble' and the potential for a 'melt-up' scenario in equities, while highlighting the Federal Reserve's role in managing the yield curve and the long-term implications of current economic conditions.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "James Stanley",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Presenter from StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Presenter's affiliation"
      },
      {
        "name": "Treasury yields",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Primary topic of discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "bond-buying programs",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Government support impacting yields"
      },
      {
        "name": "Nasdaq",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Stock index setting all-time highs"
      },
      {
        "name": "S&P 500",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Stock index setting all-time highs"
      },
      {
        "name": "AI bubble",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Potential market bubble"
      },
      {
        "name": "Scott Bessent",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Referenced in relation to quarterly refunding announcement"
      },
      {
        "name": "Janet Yellen",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "US Treasury Secretary, discussed regarding debt issuance strategy"
      },
      {
        "name": "Fed",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Federal Reserve, discussed regarding monetary policy and interest rates"
      },
      {
        "name": "Treasury curve",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Yield curve for US Treasury bonds"
      },
      {
        "name": "long-dated Treasuries",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Bonds with longer maturities"
      },
      {
        "name": "short-term debt",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Treasury bills with shorter maturities"
      },
      {
        "name": "long-term debt",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Treasury bonds with longer maturities"
      },
      {
        "name": "mortgages",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "Impacted by interest rates"
      },
      {
        "name": "housing sector",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Impacted by interest rates"
      },
      {
        "name": "United States",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Geographic focus of economic discussion"
      },
      {
        "name": "Congress",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Discussed in relation to austerity measures"
      },
      {
        "name": "Federal Reserve",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Discussed regarding bond-buying programs and balance sheet"
      },
      {
        "name": "Tech Bust",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Historical market event (dot-com bubble)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Anthropic",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "AI company with a leaked IPO prospectus"
      },
      {
        "name": "Open AI",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "AI company, IPO scuttled"
      },
      {
        "name": "President Trump",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Referenced for market manipulation tactics"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Treasury yields have 'absolutely ripped' in the past couple of weeks, leading to confusion.",
        "timestamp": "00:06",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Two decades of bond-buying programs and government support have built faulty expectations and misaligned relationships in the market.",
        "timestamp": "00:16",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The assumption that rising yields automatically mean falling stocks is not how it works; other factors are at play.",
        "timestamp": "00:34",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Stocks, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, have continued to set all-time highs despite rising yields.",
        "timestamp": "00:41",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The speaker expects yields to continue to rise due to a supply-demand situation with upcoming bond supply.",
        "timestamp": "01:10",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Holding long-dated Treasuries feels like 'trying to catch a falling knife' due to rising yields.",
        "timestamp": "01:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There is a 'big opportunity' related to Scott Bessent and the quarterly refunding announcement in the first week of November, similar to 2023.",
        "timestamp": "01:33",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The AI bubble's valuations have gotten too far ahead of themselves, and revenue potential may not justify current valuations.",
        "timestamp": "02:04",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Bubbles don't burst on their own; they usually need a 'cauterizing item' which isn't here yet for the AI bubble.",
        "timestamp": "02:16",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 2-year Treasury yield is not at a fresh high, staying inside the 5.25% hit in October 2023, unlike the 10-year and 30-year yields.",
        "timestamp": "03:43",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Secretary Yellen's strategy in 2023 of rolling over maturing long-term debt with short-term issuance has exacerbated the current problem of continually needing to refinance short-term debt.",
        "timestamp": "03:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 5% on October 23, 2023, then declined significantly after Yellen's QRA indicated a preference for short-term debt issuance.",
        "timestamp": "04:08",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 30-year Treasury yield spiked to around 5.15% in October 2023 and then pulled back dramatically due to the debt issuance strategy.",
        "timestamp": "04:38",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed's current 'uber-hawkish' stance is likely due to the unsustainable situation of high long-term yields (7-8%) leading to 9-10% mortgages, which would freeze the housing sector.",
        "timestamp": "07:12",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Once inflation is handled, the Fed will have flexibility to manage the Treasury curve, potentially suppressing interest rates through bond-buying programs.",
        "timestamp": "07:35",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Higher yields are not necessarily a 'death knell' for stocks right now; the problem for stocks comes when there's a falling rate environment due to recessionary fears and an opportunity cost for capital.",
        "timestamp": "08:55",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Long bonds in a falling rate environment are one of the most attractive venues, especially if the government initiates a bond-buying program and inflation is handled.",
        "timestamp": "10:09",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The current market situation feels very similar to 1999-2000 (Tech Bust), with high valuations on tech stocks and significant losses reported by AI companies like Anthropic.",
        "timestamp": "11:21",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The S&P 500 futures are in an ascending triangle formation and have already started to break out, with a fresh high on Wednesday.",
        "timestamp": "13:17",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Support for S&P 500 futures is at 7782, with a prior swing low at 7782.50.",
        "timestamp": "13:24",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The speaker sees nothing on the chart to dissuade from bullish continuation in S&P 500 futures, viewing pullbacks as opportunistic.",
        "timestamp": "14:10",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A key resistance zone for S&P 500 futures is 7838-7848, a group of swing highs from August and September.",
        "timestamp": "15:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If S&P 500 futures fall below 7761.75 to 7766.50, it would be a negative signal.",
        "timestamp": "17:01",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Nasdaq 100 futures broke out significantly after the rate hike and has been showing higher highs and higher lows since.",
        "timestamp": "18:08",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A potential support zone for Nasdaq 100 futures is around 30343 to 30000, with 30000 being the 2.272 extension of a major move.",
        "timestamp": "19:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The impact of exorbitant interest rates on indebted AI companies will take time to materialize, and it's not an 'automatic kill switch' for the stock market.",
        "timestamp": "19:48",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
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        "note": "High hit in October 2023",
        "value": "5.25%",
        "instrument": "US Government Bonds 2 Yr Yield",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Traded on October 23, 2023",
        "value": "5%",
        "instrument": "US Government Bonds 10 Yr Yield",
        "level_type": "resistance"
      },
      {
        "note": "Spike in October 2023",
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        "value": "7782",
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        "note": "Psychological level, high printed just inside",
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        "note": "8K level",
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        "note": "Big support zone, break below is negative",
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      {
        "value": "due",
        "metric": "Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)",
        "period": "First week of November",
        "source": "Treasury Department"
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        "value": "5.25%",
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      {
        "value": "6-7%",
        "metric": "Inflation Rate",
        "period": "2021-2022",
        "source": "US Inflation"
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        "value": "42 billion dollars",
        "metric": "Loss",
        "period": "Last year",
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  "video_id": "P7DQPlB2OEM",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7DQPlB2OEM",
  "transcript": "Hello traders, James Stanley with StoneX. Treasury yields have absolutely ripped in the past couple of weeks and it seems like there's a lot of confusion around that. I think that two decades of bond buying programs and government support has built in a lot of faulty expectations, a lot of misaligned relationships and I think that at least many in the media and then many headlines assume that just because yields are going up that stocks should go down and that's not really how it works. There's a lot of other stuff going into this. And the fact that stocks have continued to set all-time highs, I mean we had another fresh all-time high in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on Wednesday. I think that just goes to show you that there's more going on here than just a simple yields up, stocks down type of relationship. And in my Q4 forecast, I've I looked at the possibility of a melt up scenario in equities, but in other videos, I've been talking about how I'm expecting yields to continue to rip because the reality is that's a supply demand situation. And with all of the supply that is going to be coming online in the coming months, it's it it it it feels a lot like trying to catch a falling knife if you're holding into long dated Treasuries. But I want to go over a few different things in this video. I want to look across the yield curve and you know, I I I think there's a a big opportunity here if you will for Scott Bessent, the quarterly refunding announcement is due in the first week of November. And we had a really similar scenario here back in 2023. And I think there might be some interplay in and how that goes down. And you know, I think more than anything, I want to look at the bigger item that is on everybody's mind, the AI bubble. And you know, I think at this point, very much like in 1998, 1999, it's it's it's it's not a secret that valuations have gotten too far ahead of themselves, that the revenue potential for this awesome technology is just not going to be able to justify the valuations that are there. But bubbles just don't burst on their own. It usually needs a a a a cauterizing item to do that and I don't think that it's here yet. But I want to try to interweave these thieves through a number of different charts in this video. All right, so first and foremost, uh two year notes. I looked at this a couple weeks back in the five charts video. Uh for the five charts for the week ahead video and and you know, at the time, we had this massive run up in two year yields. And and and and that's pulled back a bit. But you know, this highlights what I think is the potential for the near term, which is, you know, something that again played through in 2023. And it you know, I don't want to say what Secretary Yellen did was a good thing because the problem that we're dealing with today is largely because of that. Because she kicked the can down the road, because she took a lot of maturing long-term debt and and issued it and paid it off with the short end of the curve. That's just continued to roll up this short-term issuance that continually needs to be refunded. And you know, that hasn't made Scott Bessent's job any simpler. But when you look across the Treasury curve, the two year is much closer to Fed funds than than the 10 or the 30. And so it's going to usually have more relationship with what the Fed is doing or or or what the Fed is looking at. And notably, even with the Fed going into this hawkish posture, even with the Fed hiking rates and saying that they're going to hike again, the two year is not at a fresh high. We have stayed inside of the 525 that hit back in October of 2023. But, you know, like I said in the intro, there's an opportunity here for Bessent. And this really kind of highlights what that opportunity is. But let's look across the curve right here at that October 2023 issue. Like in the 10 year, for instance, this was that there was one morning, October 23rd, 2023 when the 10 year traded at 5%. It it caught a bid. And then kind of stabilized, but then as as Yellen issued the QRA for that year, she basically said, we're going to use short-term debt a lot more than long-term debt. It it built demand in in in the 10 and you can see where there is a pretty massive decline in 10 year yields. And that's essentially again, just her kicking the can down the road. You can see it also played through in the 30, where we had this spike in October of that year. We got like 515. And then it it pulled back pretty dramatically on the back of in essence kicking the can down the road. Now, like I said, this isn't a great thing to issue 90 day and and and 180 day T-bills to satisfy and and and pay off principle and and and essentially refund long-term debt. You know, especially when you had this opportunity back here in like 2021, 2022, inflation in the US is 6, 7%. You have the 30 at like 2% or lower. That would have been a great time to issue a lot of long-term debt. But you know, as the Fed got into rate hikes in 2022, you can see where markets started to try to get ahead of that curve and that's what explains this this pretty dramatic run. But you know, it it's it's been seemingly parabolic of late and this is what I think has built in a lot of the fear. Is that when you see this run in yields and then further, you take a step back and you look at this from like a long-term perspective, it it you know, as a human being, it's impossible to look at this and to not try to fill in the blanks. That's I think one of the the things that works against many with technical analysis. We have like this almost this built-in pattern recognition that makes us want to fill in B, C, D, E, even though we just had A. And, you know, the reality is, especially in yields, is not it's not so simple. You know, like it looks like we have a pretty standard ascending triangle breakout, but, you know, the reality is it's it's the push behind this that made it all the worthwhile. And, you know, you'll you'll catch some elements where you get like some support like we had at this like 35, 36 area or, you know, like resistance holding at a five handle, something like that. But, you know, the reality is when you get one of these prolonged trends that we had, you know, from like the late 80s all the way down, there was something else doing the push. And that was a, you know, very much an exogenous item. And if you look at what that is, it you know, it was especially helped out by government bond buying and and the Federal Reserve taking on balance sheet. Ultimately, I think that's what's going to arrest this little thing. And I think that's one of the reasons the Fed has taken on this this like uber hawkish mode because once inflation is settled, once inflation is down, they have all kinds of flexibility to help try to manage the Treasury curve. I know it's not their job, but when you look at what's happening right now, I mean, the situation is simply unsustainable. If you have the 30 at 7%, 8%, you're going to have mortgages at 9 or 10%. It's going to completely freeze the housing sector in many parts of the United States. It's not a tenable situation. The Fed needs to have some kind of wherewithal to stand in here. And it's not going to be going to Congress and saying, hey, you got to institute austerity. It's too late for that. So, once inflation gets handled, they have a lot of flexibility and it's just like we saw for this like this 12-year period, you know, all the way from the financial collapse until 2020, and even after 2020, the the Fed has an incredible ability to suppress interest rates on the back of their bond-buying programs. And, you know, it's not necessarily, I think, a a big drive to whittle down the balance sheet. I mean, the idea of getting back to a Fed without a balance sheet, it it's it it doesn't make sense. It's not possible at this point. But that's just my theory. That's why I think the Fed is is on this uber hawkish mode right now. But anyways, um when you look at where where yields are right now, it's not necessarily a a saying a bad thing for or about stocks. Right? Because if you think about it, if you're in a higher growth backdrop, it's going to come with higher levels of inflation. If you have higher inflation, then holding yields or holding bonds at the same yield makes less sense. On top of that, if you're in that higher growth environment, there's other attractive venues to deploy that capital. You're looking at generally higher expected rate of returns in stocks, in tech stocks. And that's one of the reasons the Nasdaq will often lead the S&P. And that's what we've seen take over again over the past few weeks. So, you know, the fact that yields are ripping, I don't think that's necessarily a death note for stocks right now. I think the problem for stocks comes in when you're in that falling rate environment for two reasons. One, you have a reason for falling rates, usually it's the recessionary potential or recessionary fears. And then the other is now you have an opportunity cost for capital because you get a degree of FOMO hitting for those bond returns. Like, for instance, you can see this play out real well back here in the tech bust. Right? The 30 had this low at like 47. This high at like 67. And and and and the Nasdaq topped in March. Right here. Right? It had its lower high in September. And you can see right there is right around when it's at a six handle. But then when you're down at like a 58 and tech stocks are tumbling, bidding that 15th or 16th dip in the Nasdaq isn't as attractive. And instead, I could be sitting in a Treasury and just clipping coupons for the next 30 years. Which, granted, at 5.7% might not be all that enticing. But when you consider the fact that lower rates mean higher bond prices, now you get some pretty significant upside potential on top of that. One of the most attractive venues to be in is long bonds in a falling rate environment, very much like what we had here. And if the government does bring on a bond-buying program, which again, I expect that they'll do, if inflation is handled and we're in a recessionary backdrop, then the wind is behind your sails. And, you know, that's where we're in when we get into one of those modes. We're not in one of those modes right now. Instead, we're in one of these modes where prices are breaking out, yields are breaking out. And this, you know, again, it feels very similar to what we had back here in 1999 and going into 2000. When, you know, there is a lot of of almost like accepted belief that we are in a bubble. But there's also very little reason to not be riding that wave yet. And, you know, once there is recessionary potential or fear of a recession and inflation is is is coming down, that's when we can get back into a backdrop where that thing could twist. It's not there yet. Um, so this again plays into why I was looking for a melt up going into Q4 and into the end of the year. I think this whole thing rectifies at some point next year in 2027 or or maybe even 2028. You know, if I had to guess with from where we're at right now, um, it it would carry a lot of similarity to the tech bust, which was, you know, what really created the tech bust. I mean, we all knew it was this irrational exuberance, this these these exorbitant valuation valuations on on tech stocks that were of of, you know, flimsy profitability. You know, with the leak of the Anthropic IPO prospectus, showing a 42 billion dollar loss last year, the parallels are striking. You know, and Anthropic is the one that has, you know, great proof of concept. I think Open AI is the one that's maybe a little bit more questionable. They've already scuttled their IPO. But, you know, I would expect that their numbers are are probably a far sight worse. And, you know, they're more dependent on this whole thing on debt and debt markets than than than many of their competitors. And so that again kind of plays into this whole thing because as yields go up, it inevitably levies a degree of pressure on those companies, but it's not automatic. And that's why I think this misconception that higher yields should mean a a floundering stock market, you know, the timing is off. Because usually there's a mechanism with which, you know, this more expensive funding is is it's going to take time to take its toll. And that's something that I think could play into like the first half of next year. Um, especially if inflation, you know, hasn't come down at that point and if Fed has to continue hiking. But I'm not necessarily seeing these higher yields as a death note for stocks. I think if anything, it's, you know, seemingly positive at this point that a higher growth backdrop is now demanding higher yields. And I I think it is something that inevitably will correct, but I'm still looking at the long side of stocks. That said, let's look at the long side of stocks. In the S&P 500, uh right over here, uh same chart that I've been working off of for a while now. Let's start off with this one. It's a little simpler. I looked at this in the Q4 forecast. But, you know, I have this in an ascending triangle formation. It's already started to break out with that fresh high that we had on Wednesday. Uh it's pulled back. I have this at a pretty big spot of support right now, like 7782. But, you know, for this one, I I I think there's some significant upside potential because of the way that these highs have come in. This high printed just a little inside of 7900. So it almost seems as though like an overweight long did not want to go up and test the next big figure. I mean, just like two and a half points inside of the the psychological level. And, you know, realistically, I think it's the 8K level that played big there because we got 100 points away from 8K and, you know, we're what, a a solid 300, 250, 300 points away from this prior swing low. Um, uh 150 away from that swing low. There was just wasn't a great risk reward for that breakout to push when it is as as aggressively overbought as it has been. So, you know, I I don't see anything on the chart right now that dissuades me from looking at bullish continuation and I'm still looking at pullbacks as opportunistic. And I, you know, I have support today at a pretty big spot. Um, let's go to this one. It's a little bit more detailed. This is the chart that I work off of intraday. And if you see my tweets or if you see my posts, uh this is the one that I've been been, uh, sharing pretty pretty pretty widely, pretty vividly. I've had some great responsiveness at these levels. Um, shooting this video Thursday evening, by the time you see this, it's probably going to be Friday morning. So we're probably going to have a lot of tape that's printed between now and then. But, you know, what I've been doing here is just really very simple. I'm looking for areas of confluence. The uh Fibonacci retracement from this breakout move has been pretty helpful. And, um, you know, technically we've already cleared the high, but the the pullbacks have seen some pretty good responsiveness at those levels. And then I'm I'm matching that up with prior key zones, prior key zones support turned resistance areas. Uh, the one that's held really big and this is the one that's huge going into this weekend is 7838 to 7848. It's simply a group of swing highs. The uh swing high that we had back here in August, these swing highs that we had in September. That zone has been it's been just like it's been trouble land. Um, you know, we had a quick wick of highs there in uh on Monday. Uh the breakout of which tried to hold support. We just haven't gained acceptance there yet. You can see where it swatted down pretty hard earlier today. But that's the big zone. If we get above that, that's what keeps the door open for that push up to the 7900 handle. Uh inside of that is this zone here between 7798, 7807 and a half. Pretty big spot. Uh had some short-term support, turned resistance, turned resistance. Intraday, it's been a couple different items of support that's given a pretty vigorous bounce that uh that I've liked quite a bit. Uh 7822 and a quarter, a little flimsier of a level, but, you know, it it did show something intraday earlier and it came off of a prior swing low. So it's going to stay on my chart until it uh until it earns its way off. And then this one, the 382 at 7782 and a quarter. This is what ultimately caught the low of the day as we caught that bounce. Now, if you look at this short-term, there are lower lows and lower highs that have developed. But I have this in a bull flag. A very similar bull flag to what had played in here just last week. That bull flag broke out with gusto on Friday. And so, you know, I think that's a a an outcome that we need to keep into account for because President Trump knows what he's doing on this and he likes to pump ahead of a weekend. And then on the weekend, he'll drop the bad news. And then as we get closer to the open, more good news. So, you know, it would not surprise me at all to hear, you know, some type of hopeful report that, you know, Iran's closer to a resolution or something like that. And, you know, and look for a bid to develop into the weekend. If it doesn't, and this is where the I think this this plot thickens a bit more. If it doesn't, if we do see these lower lows and lower highs continue, this is the zone right here, 7761 and three quarters up to 7766 and a half. Pretty big spot. It's been pretty well worn. We saw this come into play on Monday as a higher low before this thing launched up to the fresh ATH. But that's a really big spot. If we get below that, I'm going to take that as a pretty negative signal. And, you know, by negative signal, not necessarily meaning I just want to like, you know, throw the whole house short, but, you know, 7716 to 7724 and a quarter. That's a pretty big spot. That's the next support zone down that I'm going to be looking for. I don't necessarily want to look for breakouts to trade down. I'd probably look for a pullback and resistance right here at 7782 and a quarter. And then, you know, try to leg that down into that deeper zone. But I still have this with bullish structure. I know it gets a little bit messier once I go to the uh once I go to the daily on this chart just because it has been so busy, but it's been very respectable play at some really key levels on S&P 500 futures. Nasdaq 100, I think this one is pretty pivotal given everything that we've talked about, where, you know, we had this this this this was dead to rights. It was bearish. But, you know, it broke out in a big way after the rate hike and it's been higher highs and higher lows ever since. You know, today again, we saw a pretty good reaction at a pretty key spot. This is uh, you know, I don't do a lot with fibo extensions or projections, but, uh, this one has been pretty important to me. You take the 2025 pullback. And there's just been a lot of interplay at these extension levels. It's the 1618 that got my attention back here. But then I just continued to run that sequence. And and I, you know, I often say it, I'm going to run it until it breaks. And it's been pretty key. The 2414 up here at like 30,861, uh, did a great job of defining these highs. And and today it's been a spot that buyers haven't been able to show full-blown acceptance above. If we get a pullback, this is the one I might like a little bit more just because there is some structure in here. That 30K level is one that took a while to gain acceptance. We haven't seen a pullback or a test of support there since the breakout. But, you know, if if we do get lower on Friday into the end of the week, this is the zone I'm going to look for uh price to come in and play right around 30,343. And then right around 30K flat, it's the 2.272 extension of that same major move that I was looking at a moment ago. But, you know, I I think what's interesting about this is the dichotomy. If you look at the headlines, it seems like it should be bearish. It seems like it should be negative. You got yields ripping. Yields ripping is not a good thing for corporates, especially these like these indebted AI companies that are these hyperscalers that are living off of debt. And, you know, it it it it it paints a really negative picture. But, you know, the reality is that throughput takes time. You know, it takes time for Open AI or Anthropic to be adversely harmed by these exorbitant interest rates that they're inevitably going to have to pay because they're spending more than they're making. And, you know, it it can and will, I think, erode away a company's profitability, simply paying more interest to lower access or less access to debt markets. But it's not an automatic kill switch. And that's what I think many have mistaken after 20 years of QE and and government bond buying. They've kind of become accustomed to the fact that that that that lower yields are a positive for stocks. And and yes, that generally is true, but it's not always an automatic kind of thing. And that's what we're going to find out as we go into the end of the year. But as always, thank you for your time and happy trading with you, gentlemen.",
  "description": "Treasury yields and stocks are climbing together, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 setting records even as yields rip and AI bubble fears build.\n\nJames Stanley, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, explains why rising Treasury yields have not derailed the equity rally.\n\nHe revisits the 2023 quarterly refunding announcement, when a shift to short-term Treasury bills pulled long-end yields lower, and the role of Federal Reserve bond buying. He also compares the AI bubble with the 2000 tech bust and how higher rates weigh on debt-funded AI firms such as OpenAI.\n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_james_stanley&utm_content=share\n\n00:00 - Yields Rip, Stocks Hit Records\n02:34 - 2023 Refunding Cut Long Yields\n05:54 - Fed Bond Buying Set the Trend\n08:16 - Yields Up Isn't Stocks Down\n09:04 - Falling Rates Hurt Stocks More\n11:14 - AI Bubble Echoes the Tech Bust\n13:13 - S&P 500, Nasdaq Hold Breakouts\n19:23 - OpenAI Debt Meets Rate Squeeze\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#StoneX #JamesStanley #Nasdaq #BondMarket\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T10:01:21Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/P7DQPlB2OEM/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-09",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
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