Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 08, 2026 at 08:17 AM

Completed At

October 08, 2026 at 08:18 AM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

Panama Canal Slots Return but Grain Ships Steer Clear

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Panama Canal Slots Return but Grain Ships Steer Clear",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Reduced water levels in Gatun Lake due to El Niño, impacting available slots and ship draft.",
      "Not making a booked slot, leading to loss of slot fee and cancellation fees.",
      "Increased costs due to lightening ships if draft is reduced.",
      "Significant delays (up to 40-45 days previously, 20-30 days currently factored) leading to higher freight costs and potentially killing deals."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Panama Canal",
      "Shipping",
      "Logistics",
      "Freight",
      "El Niño",
      "Water levels",
      "Slot allocation",
      "Auctions",
      "Dry bulk",
      "Grain",
      "Fertiliser",
      "Tankers",
      "Gas carriers",
      "Container ships",
      "Car carriers"
    ],
    "summary": "The video discusses the Panama Canal's slot allocation system, which has seen an extra daily slot added due to better-than-expected rainfall, despite El Niño's general impact. It details the different types of slots (Period 1, 2, 3 auction) and how ship size affects passage through old vs. new locks. The speaker highlights the significant costs and risks associated with securing slots, especially for dry bulk cargo, and notes that delays are causing companies to seek alternative shipping routes. This situation is leading to increased freight costs and impacting trade decisions.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Panama Canal",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "main topic of discussion, shipping route"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "weather effect reducing water levels, adding uncertainty"
      },
      {
        "name": "Tom Beney",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight at StoneX"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cosco",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "big shipping company, regular canal user"
      },
      {
        "name": "Cargill",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "big shipping company, regular canal user"
      },
      {
        "name": "NYK",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "big shipping company, regular canal user"
      },
      {
        "name": "Gatun Lake",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "defines water levels for Panama Canal locks"
      },
      {
        "name": "Dry bulk",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "least valuable product, tends to be at end of queue, facing significant delays"
      },
      {
        "name": "Tankers",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "product going through the canal"
      },
      {
        "name": "Gas carriers",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "product going through the canal"
      },
      {
        "name": "Container ships",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "product going through the canal"
      },
      {
        "name": "Car carriers",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "product going through the canal"
      },
      {
        "name": "Supramax vessel",
        "type": "other",
        "context": "type of dry bulk vessel"
      },
      {
        "name": "Neo-Panamax locks",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "newer, larger locks in the Panama Canal"
      },
      {
        "name": "US West Coast",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "seeing increased demand for grain due to Panama Canal issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "US East Coast",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "seeing increased demand for grain due to Panama Canal issues"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The Panama Canal Authority has announced an extra daily slot from mid-October due to better-than-expected rainfall.",
        "timestamp": "00:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The El Niño weather effect may reduce the water levels in Gatun Lake, which defines how much water is available for the locks in the Panama Canal.",
        "timestamp": "00:57",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "There are different types of cargo going through the canal, including tankers, gas carriers, container ships, car carriers, and dry bulk.",
        "timestamp": "01:49",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Dry bulk is the least valuable product going through the canal and therefore tends to be at the end of the queue.",
        "timestamp": "02:18",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Regular users of the canal, like Cosco, Cargill, and NYK, have a high ranking in the system, allowing them to apply for Period 1 slots well in advance (e.g., 60 days).",
        "timestamp": "02:51",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Period 3 slots are an auction system, which becomes particularly interesting due to demand.",
        "timestamp": "03:27",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "There are two different lock systems: the old Panama Canal (built by the US) with a beam restriction of 32.25 meters, and the newer Neo-Panamax locks for much bigger ships.",
        "timestamp": "03:40",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The auction prices on the Neo-Panamax locks are very high compared to the older Panamax locks, which tend to have a more steady auction price.",
        "timestamp": "04:38",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "A Period 2 slot for a Supramax dry bulk vessel would cost about $55,000 above the normal transit cost of approximately $285,000, totaling around $330,000-$340,000.",
        "timestamp": "05:38",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If a ship does not make its booked slot, the $55,000 paid is lost, and a cancellation fee must also be paid.",
        "timestamp": "06:27",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Panama Canal Authority uses freshwater from Gatun Lake for its locks, not seawater, so rainfall has a big impact on slot allocation.",
        "timestamp": "07:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If the Panama Canal Authority reduces the available draft, ship owners will have to lighten the ship at one end of the canal, which is a very expensive operation.",
        "timestamp": "08:11",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "If you don't get a slot in the auction and have to wait, you are at the mercy of the Panama Canal Authority with no confirmed slot or date.",
        "timestamp": "09:58",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "In 2023, when similar issues occurred, some ships were waiting up to 40-45 days.",
        "timestamp": "10:41",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "With negative media attention around the Panama Canal, people are trying to source grain from other areas, such as the West Coast and East Coast of the US, to avoid the canal.",
        "timestamp": "11:15",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Dry bulk owners are factoring up to 20-30 days of delay into their freight calculations, which effectively 'kills the deal' due to increased costs.",
        "timestamp": "11:57",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "above normal transit cost",
        "value": "$55,000",
        "instrument": "Panama Canal slot (Period 2 for dry bulk)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "normal transit cost",
        "value": "$285,000",
        "instrument": "Panama Canal transit (Supramax dry bulk)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "cost of ship per day",
        "value": "$30,000",
        "instrument": "Daily cost for Supramax vessel",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "daily cost",
        "value": "$2,000",
        "instrument": "Bunkers (fuel)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "to save 5 days of waiting",
        "value": "up to $150,000",
        "instrument": "Panama Canal auction bid (example)",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "an extra daily slot",
        "metric": "Daily slots",
        "period": "Mid-October",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "$55,000",
        "metric": "Period 2 slot cost (above normal transit)",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "$285,000",
        "metric": "Normal transit cost (Supramax dry bulk)",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "32.25 meters",
        "metric": "Old Panama Canal beam restriction",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to 40-45 days",
        "metric": "Waiting time (previous El Niño, 2023)",
        "source": "Panama Canal Authority"
      },
      {
        "value": "up to 20-30 days",
        "metric": "Delays factored into freight calculations",
        "source": "Dry bulk owners"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses the Panama Canal, its operations, and the impact of weather and slot allocation on shipping."
  },
  "video_id": "8jtZFnAupVs",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jtZFnAupVs",
  "transcript": "Getting a ship through the Panama Canal takes more than turning up and paying the toll. So, how do you secure a slot and what happens when the weather changes the plan? With El Niño adding uncertainty, we're looking at the decisions behind getting cargo through on time. Joining me today to take us through all the ins and outs is Tom Beney, Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight at StoneX. Welcome Tom, great to see you as always. Morning, Gergana. So, earlier this month, or I just say later in September, um the headlines were about fewer ships getting through. Now the Canal Authority has announced an extra daily slot from mid-October. Can you tell us what's changed and how much reassurance should that give shippers? Yes, so uh there's a lot of a lot of changes going on in the Panama Canal um because of the El Niño weather effect that may reduce the water levels in the Gatun Lake, which is what defines how much uh water is available for the locks in the Panama Canal. And uh I think what's happened recently is the rainfall has been better than expected. And so effectively what that's what that's done is allowed the Panama Canal authorities to add additional slots when they had previously reduced them. Got it. Okay. So, let's put ourselves in a ship operator's shoes. We've got a cargo to move through Panama. Talk me through what's it like getting a slot? Like, how far ahead do we book? What decides whether we get the date we want, etc. So it's quite a complicated system. I I think first of all, we have to say there's lots of different types of cargoes going through the canal. Um and today even more so uh due to the Straits of Hormuz issues, there is more and more products coming out of the US and into Asia, particularly on uh tankers and gas carriers. Um but we have obviously a lot of container ships which come through the canal, um and also car carriers. And then dry bulk. Dry bulk is uh I I say that last because dry bulk is the least valuable product which goes through the canal and therefore tends to be at the end of the queue. So, when you're when you know your first of all, the difficulty uh in shipping is to know exactly when your ship is going to go through and to predict that. And and then there's three different um uh what they call um slot uh periods. And if you're if you're a user of the canal regularly, you have uh a ranking system where uh if you if companies like Cosco and Cargill and NYK who are very big shipping companies who regularly go through the canal, have a high ranking in the system, then you can apply for what's called a Period 1 slot. And a Period 1 slot would be quite in advance of the ship um uh arrival. So you might be able to apply 60 days in advance. Um but if you're not a high ranking, you're probably looking at a Period 2 slot or a Period 3 slot. And a Period 3 is an auction. And that's where it gets really interesting. And we're going to get into that. So thank you for bringing it up. One quick thing before we move on. Does the type or size of ship change our options? Yes, it does. So, it's a very good point. Uh you have two uh channels effectively through the canal, two different lock systems. Uh one is the old uh Panama Canal, which was built by the US, uh and uh has a beam restriction on the ship. So, the width of the ship cannot be more than 32.25 meters. And then uh on the the new locks, which were built a few years ago, uh those ships are much bigger. Uh they can go through uh they're longer, wider, uh deeper ships, uh and they're called the Neo-Panamax locks. So, it does uh uh it it does depend on the size of the ship as to which lock system you use, and therefore what the uh slot uh will cost you. The bigger the ship, uh the more the slot costs you. And then what we've seen is the auction prices on the particularly on the Neo-Panamax locks are very, very high versus the older Panamax, uh which tend to be more, let's say, of a steady auction price. Okay, so let's delve a little bit deeper then into the auctions. Um where do auctions come in? Like, what are you actually paying for on top obviously of the normal canal toll? And how do you decide how much a slot is worth for your company? So, I'll I'll take an example because that's probably the easiest for everybody to understand. If you have a dry bulk ship that's going through, then you would apply for a Period uh 1 slot. Uh those are pretty much unavailable today. Um for the uh for the dry bulk ships. And so a Period 2 would open uh about uh 30 days prior to the ship's arrival in the Panama Canal. And a Period 2 slot would then cost you about $55,000 above the normal transit cost. And the normal transit cost for a Supramax vessel uh carrying, let's say, a dry bulk cargo would be about uh $285,000. So, you're looking at about uh $330, $340,000 effectively as your total cost if you were able to book a Period 2 slot. Now, the difficulty of that is predicting when your ship is going to arrive in the canal because you probably haven't loaded. Um and so particularly with dry bulk, uh ships get delayed at load ports. And so being able to book a Period 2 slot uh confidently uh is very, very difficult. And then if you don't make your slot, so if the ship arrives later, you lose the $55,000 that you've uh dollars that you've spent, plus you also have to pay a cancellation fee. So, it's a it's a risky game on the Period 2. And so what people tend to do is wait for the Period 3 auctions to come up. Okay. And that's when you get much closer to the ETA of the ship. Okay, so it gives you a little more leeway. Okay, so let's add a little more uncertainty into the mix. Um what happens when El Niño comes into the picture? So, why does a shortage of rain matter so much in a canal that is literally connecting two oceans? And like you said, could we have a confirmed slot but still have to carry less cargo because the water levels have fallen? Absolutely. So, what what will define how many slots are available, but also how many ships they can take through the canal at any one time is the level of water in the Gatun Lake. And it's a lot of people think that the locks, they they use seawater because, you know, we're connected by two oceans effectively, but we don't. We use uh the the the Panama Canal authorities use the freshwater available in the Gatun Lake. And therefore, rainfall has a big impact on the overall slot allocation in the Panama Canal. Right now, what we've seen is that um with the El Niño, what that typically happens is that you start getting less rainfall in that area. And so they're monitoring the level of the lake very, very closely. In terms of the draft, uh if the Panama Canal authorities reduce the draft available uh to go through, they normally will give you a warning that that's going to happen. And it's at the end of the day, that's the owner's responsibility. And so if you are loaded over that uh draft, you will have to lighten the ship at one end of the canal, and that's a very expensive operation. Oh, wow. Okay. Um okay, so let's take another scenario. Okay, we can't get the slot we need. How do we then choose between waiting or bidding or simply, you know what, I'm not even going to go through there, I'm going to take another route. Can you give us a very quick, simple example? Yeah, so we have uh we have exactly that happening in in our fleet at the moment. And so we take the cost of the ship, um let's say $30,000 a day for a uh Supramax vessel. And then we look at so if it if it's waiting, it's going to cost us 30,000 plus a couple of tons of bunkers, so that's say 32,000. And uh then we look at how many days we think we're going to wait based on what our agents are telling us in the canal. And then we calculate how much we want to bid on an auction. So, the third period auction slots come up much closer to when the ship's going to arrive in the canal. And we then decide how much are we going to bid on that auction to see if we can get the ship through. So, if every day costs you 30,000, if you can save five days, uh then you would get then obviously you would pay 150,000 up to 150,000 to try to get the ship through. Mhm. Okay, but if you don't get it in the auction and you have to wait, what happens then? Do you just turn the ship around? Then you're in the in the laps of the gods of the Panama Canal Authority effectively. So, uh then, you know, let's put it this way, they don't want to keep ships sitting for weeks on end. But uh effectively because it's a um a pay to pass through the canal system, you need to wait. And it may be that you wait five days, 10 days, you may get really lucky and get through quickly. But you are in the lap of the gods, you have no confirmed slot allocation, you have no confirmed date to go through. You have to wait until they tell you, we can fit you in now, we'll we'll take you through now. All we know is back in 2023, when this happened previously, uh and things got really bad, some ships were waiting up to 40-45 days. Wow. Okay, so obviously very important to keep an eye on El Niño for the Panama Canal. Um for someone buying grain and fertilizer, what could all this mean for their next delivery? And what should they be asking their shipping provider now? Yes, so it's it's definitely changing the trades. Um with all the negative media attention around the Panama Canal, people are trying to source their grain from other areas, which um which would avoid the canal. So, uh West Coast of the US is seeing an increased pickup in demand for customers on the West Coast. And the East Coast uh is also seeing a pickup in demand um for anything within the Atlantic. And what we're seeing is that those trades between the Atlantic and the Pacific and the Pacific and the Atlantic on dry bulk have dried up a little. Um because because companies don't want to take that risk of delays in the Panama. Um and what we're seeing on dry bulk is that owners are factoring up to 20, 30 days delay in their calculations on freight. And so that kills the kills the deal effectively. It comes too expensive. Yeah. Understood. Well, Tom, thank you for taking us through that. That was excellent. I really appreciate it. And thank you to our viewers for watching. For more financial content, don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel.",
  "description": "Panama Canal slots are allocated by user ranking, booking period, and auction, and dry bulk cargo usually sits at the back of the queue.\n\nTom Beney, Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight at StoneX, explains how ships secure transit slots and what happens when El Niño changes the plan.\n\nPeriod three slot auctions open close to arrival, and a ship that misses a booked period two slot forfeits its fee and pays a cancellation charge. Because the locks run on freshwater from Gatun Lake, El Niño rainfall shortfalls can cut slot numbers and draft limits, pushing grain buyers toward U.S. West Coast and Atlantic origins that avoid the canal.\n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/collections/all?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_tom_beney&utm_content=share\n\n00:00 - Panama Canal Runs on Rainfall\n01:45 - Canal Slots Favor Big Regulars\n03:40 - Bigger Ships Pay for Big Locks\n04:50 - Missed Canal Slots Cost Twice\n06:49 - El Niño Threatens Gatun Lake\n08:33 - Auction Bid or a Costly Wait\n09:52 - Canal Waits Once Hit 45 Days\n10:50 - Grain Trades Turn From Panama\n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights.\n\n#PanamaCanal #StoneX #TomBeney #DryBulk #ElNino\n\n---------\n\nLike this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official\n\nVisit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts.\n\nVisit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social",
  "match_reason": "No keyword filter configured",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T08:01:09Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/8jtZFnAupVs/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-08",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
  "matched_keywords": [],
  "transcript_available": true
}