Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

October 07, 2026 at 01:17 PM

Completed At

October 07, 2026 at 01:18 PM

Duration

2 minutes

Headline

Grain Markets Rebound as Rapeseed Traders Rush to Exit

Data Preview

{
  "title": "Grain Markets Rebound as Rapeseed Traders Rush to Exit",
  "filter": {
    "keywords": [],
    "match_mode": "any",
    "match_fields": [
      "title",
      "description"
    ],
    "semantic_filter": true
  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@StoneX_Official",
    "title": "StoneX",
    "handle": "stonex_official",
    "channel_id": "UC5a8rKMaVmaViwJvmCMl-1Q"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Further pressure on wheat if the 50% RSI area breaks down.",
      "Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, affecting shipping and supplies.",
      "Russian threats of nuclear weapons if Kaliningrad is at risk.",
      "Ukraine losing 17% of its new crop area due to lack of funding.",
      "Chinese rejection of US soybeans due to 'soybean of other color' (SBOC) quality issues.",
      "Logistical issues in the Red Sea if Houthis control the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb.",
      "Distorted pricing due to position squaring before the WASDE report."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Wheat",
      "Rapeseed",
      "Soybeans",
      "Corn",
      "Black Sea Geopolitics",
      "European Exports",
      "US Crop Conditions",
      "South American Planting",
      "WASDE Report",
      "El Niño"
    ],
    "summary": "The video discusses the recent rebound in wheat prices due to technical factors, euro weakness, and strong export tenders from countries like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. It also highlights the escalating volatility in the Black Sea region affecting grain supplies and the \"cat flap\" situation in rapeseed futures. For soybeans, concerns about \"soybean of other color\" (SBOC) and quality issues in the US crop are noted, while Brazil's planting is behind last year. The upcoming WASDE report is anticipated to focus on corn yield and the impact of Black Sea developments.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "Wheat",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "bounced back, technicals, Chicago, Paris, exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Rapeseed",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "feeling pressure, crowded exit, November-February spread"
      },
      {
        "name": "USDA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "report, figures, annual targets"
      },
      {
        "name": "Johanna Bota",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "host"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bertrand Oesterle",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "VP of Clearing & Execution Sales at StoneX, analyst"
      },
      {
        "name": "StoneX",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "company of Bertrand, channel host"
      },
      {
        "name": "Chicago",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "wheat technicals"
      },
      {
        "name": "Paris",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "wheat technicals, European exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Europe",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "euro weakness, exports, corn imports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Euro",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "currency weakness affecting exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Pakistan",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "wheat buyer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Saudi Arabia's GFSA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "wheat buyer"
      },
      {
        "name": "LSA (French export unions)",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "reporting French wheat sales"
      },
      {
        "name": "Morocco",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "wheat buyer"
      },
      {
        "name": "Turkey",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "planning to sell wheat stocks"
      },
      {
        "name": "TMO",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Turkish Grain Board"
      },
      {
        "name": "Black Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "volatile situation, affecting supplies, port facilities, vessels hit"
      },
      {
        "name": "Sochi",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "port near Georgian border"
      },
      {
        "name": "Bulgarian waters",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "vessels hit"
      },
      {
        "name": "Odessa",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "port facilities hit"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kyiv",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "hit again"
      },
      {
        "name": "Russians",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "not reassuring, nuclear threats"
      },
      {
        "name": "Kaliningrad",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Russian enclave, risk of nuclear weapons"
      },
      {
        "name": "Baltic States",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "near Kaliningrad"
      },
      {
        "name": "Baltic Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "near Kaliningrad"
      },
      {
        "name": "Putin",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Russian leader, threats in Black Sea"
      },
      {
        "name": "IKA",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "reporting Russian exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "SovEcon",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "reporting Russian exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Interfax",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "reporting Russian exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "Ukraine",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "agricultural ministry, harvest, exports, planting, funding issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "SBOC (Soybean of Other Color)",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "quality concern for soybeans"
      },
      {
        "name": "US",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "soybean quality, corn crop, exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "China",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "soybean buyer, specific spec for soybeans"
      },
      {
        "name": "South America",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "soybean planting"
      },
      {
        "name": "Brazil",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "soybean planting, crop estimates, exports"
      },
      {
        "name": "AgRural",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Brazilian crop estimates"
      },
      {
        "name": "Corn",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "harvest, demand, yield"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mexico",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "corn buyer"
      },
      {
        "name": "WASDE report",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "upcoming report, focus on corn yield and Black Sea"
      },
      {
        "name": "Middle East",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "logistics issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "Houthis",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "taken Mocha, threat to Strait of Bab el-Mandeb"
      },
      {
        "name": "Mocha",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "town taken by Houthis"
      },
      {
        "name": "Strait of Bab el-Mandeb",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "logistics choke point"
      },
      {
        "name": "Red Sea",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "logistics issues"
      },
      {
        "name": "El Niño",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "weather phenomenon affecting crops"
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 0.9,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "Wheat has bounced back due to technical factors, euro weakness, and strong export tenders.",
        "timestamp": "00:05",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Chicago wheat technicals showed a convergence of the 100-day moving average with the lower Bollinger band, leading to a bounce.",
        "timestamp": "00:30",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "90% of clients expected a bounce in wheat from the technical convergence, while the speaker expected further pressure down to the 200-day moving average (30 cents lower).",
        "timestamp": "00:51",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Paris wheat has a gap on Dec wheat from 243.25 to 244.",
        "timestamp": "01:23",
        "importance": "low"
      },
      {
        "point": "Chicago wheat RSI is at 47% and dropping, approaching the 50-day moving average and mid-Bollinger band, finding resistance.",
        "timestamp": "01:32",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Euro weakness (below 1.12 this week, currently around 1.13) is supporting Paris wheat prices by making European exports cheaper.",
        "timestamp": "02:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Pakistan bought 180,000 tons of wheat (tendered for 185,000 tons).",
        "timestamp": "02:32",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Saudi Arabia's GFSA bought 683,000 tons of wheat (tendered for 535,000 tons).",
        "timestamp": "02:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "French export unions report France sold 600,000 tons of wheat to Morocco in the first six days of October.",
        "timestamp": "02:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Turkey is planning to sell 5.5 million tons of wheat stocks to its domestic market.",
        "timestamp": "03:04",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Black Sea situation remains very volatile, with a ship hit near the port of Sochi and vessels/ports hit in Odessa and Kyiv.",
        "timestamp": "03:25",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Russians are not reassuring, with threats of nuclear weapons if Kaliningrad is at risk.",
        "timestamp": "04:13",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Russian September wheat exports are reported at over 2.4 million tons (IKA/SovEcon) or 1.36 million tons (Interfax).",
        "timestamp": "04:45",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukraine's wheat harvest is 26.1 million tons, but new crop exports are significantly lower at 2.897 million tons compared to 5.12 million last year.",
        "timestamp": "05:10",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukraine's new crop planting is progressing quickly (49.6% this week vs 31.4% last week), but there's a risk of losing 17% of the area due to lack of funding.",
        "timestamp": "05:25",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The November-February rapeseed spread has become an 'absolute bloodbath,' hitting minus 43.25 today, indicating specs are struggling to exit long positions.",
        "timestamp": "06:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Rapeseed specs were long 66.9 thousand lots last week.",
        "timestamp": "06:16",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "There are concerns about 'soybean of other color' (SBOC) in the US due to rain and mold issues, potentially leading to Chinese rejections.",
        "timestamp": "07:41",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "US soybean crop condition is 57% good to excellent, down 1% from last week and below the 5-year average of 59%.",
        "timestamp": "08:07",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US soybean harvest is about a quarter complete, compared to 36% last year.",
        "timestamp": "08:17",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "China did not buy firm soybeans from the US last week, despite some undisclosed flash sales.",
        "timestamp": "09:26",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US soybean export pace is 9% ahead of the USDA annual targets.",
        "timestamp": "09:45",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US August soybean crush was a record 209.6 million bushels.",
        "timestamp": "09:57",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Houthis have taken Mocha, a town near the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, posing a new logistical issue for the Red Sea.",
        "timestamp": "10:11",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brazilian soybean planting is 7.3% complete, lower than 9% last year, but recent rains are beneficial for crop establishment.",
        "timestamp": "10:42",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "New record estimates for Brazilian soybean crop: AgRural at 182.7 million tons, StoneX colleagues at 183.36 million tons.",
        "timestamp": "11:35",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Brazilian September soybean exports were 7.36 million tons, similar to last year.",
        "timestamp": "11:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn crop condition is 54% good to excellent, down 2% from last week and below the 5-year average of 59%.",
        "timestamp": "12:06",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "US corn harvest is 23% complete, against 27% last year.",
        "timestamp": "12:15",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Mexico bought 350,000 tons of corn last week, but US export figures are still 7% behind USDA annual targets.",
        "timestamp": "12:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "European corn import pace is strong at 5.44 million tons, up from 4.11 million last year.",
        "timestamp": "12:37",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Ukraine's new crop corn harvest is 1.6 million tons, with exports at 1.9 million tons (up from 0.9 million last year).",
        "timestamp": "12:50",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The upcoming WASDE report on Friday will focus on corn yield, expected at 177.7 bushels per acre (down from 178.5 last month).",
        "timestamp": "13:08",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "WASDE soybean yield is likely to be around 52.8.",
        "timestamp": "13:41",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The WASDE report's inclusion of Black Sea issues will be a key focus.",
        "timestamp": "13:50",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "speaker's expectation for further downside",
        "value": "30 cents lower",
        "instrument": "Chicago Wheat",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "gap on chart",
        "value": "243.25 to 244",
        "instrument": "Paris Dec Wheat",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "speaker's previous expectation",
        "value": "-30",
        "instrument": "Rapeseed November-February spread",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "current hit value",
        "value": "-43.25",
        "instrument": "Rapeseed November-February spread",
        "level_type": "other"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "short_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "converged with lower Bollinger band",
        "metric": "100-day moving average",
        "period": "recent",
        "source": "Chicago Wheat"
      },
      {
        "value": "47%",
        "metric": "RSI",
        "period": "this morning",
        "source": "Chicago Wheat"
      },
      {
        "value": "243.25 to 244",
        "metric": "gap on Dec wheat",
        "source": "Paris Wheat"
      },
      {
        "value": "below 1.12, around 1.13",
        "metric": "exchange rate",
        "period": "this week",
        "source": "Euro"
      },
      {
        "value": "180,000 tons (tendered for 185,000)",
        "metric": "wheat purchase",
        "period": "this week",
        "source": "Pakistan"
      },
      {
        "value": "683,000 tons (tendered for 535,000)",
        "metric": "wheat purchase",
        "source": "Saudi Arabia's GFSA"
      },
      {
        "value": "600,000 tons",
        "metric": "France wheat sales to Morocco",
        "period": "Oct 1-6",
        "source": "French export unions (LSA)"
      },
      {
        "value": "5.5 million tons",
        "metric": "planned wheat stock sales to domestic market",
        "source": "Turkey (TMO)"
      },
      {
        "value": "over 2.4 million tons",
        "metric": "September wheat exports",
        "source": "Russia (IKA)"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.4 million tons",
        "metric": "September wheat exports",
        "source": "Russia (SovEcon)"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.36 million tons",
        "metric": "September wheat exports estimate",
        "source": "Russia (Interfax)"
      },
      {
        "value": "26.1 million tons",
        "metric": "wheat harvest",
        "source": "Ukraine Agricultural Ministry"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.897 million tons (vs 5.12 million last year)",
        "metric": "wheat exports (new crop)",
        "source": "Ukraine Agricultural Ministry"
      },
      {
        "value": "31.4%",
        "metric": "new crop planting progress",
        "period": "last week",
        "source": "Ukraine Agricultural Ministry"
      },
      {
        "value": "49.6%",
        "metric": "new crop planting progress",
        "period": "this week",
        "source": "Ukraine Agricultural Ministry"
      },
      {
        "value": "update expected",
        "metric": "COT (Commitment of Traders) report",
        "period": "today",
        "source": "Euronext"
      },
      {
        "value": "57% good to excellent (down 1% from previous week, below 5-year average of 59%)",
        "metric": "soybean crop condition",
        "period": "last Monday",
        "source": "US (USDA)"
      },
      {
        "value": "about a quarter harvested (vs 36% last year)",
        "metric": "soybean harvest progress",
        "source": "US (USDA)"
      },
      {
        "value": "7.3% planted (vs 9% last year)",
        "metric": "soybean planting progress",
        "source": "Brazil"
      },
      {
        "value": "182.7 million tons",
        "metric": "soybean crop estimate",
        "source": "AgRural (Brazil)"
      },
      {
        "value": "183.36 million tons",
        "metric": "soybean crop estimate",
        "source": "StoneX colleagues (Brazil)"
      },
      {
        "value": "7.36 million tons (just over 7.34 million last year)",
        "metric": "September soybean exports",
        "source": "Brazilian government"
      },
      {
        "value": "54% good to excellent (down 2% from previous week, below 5-year average of 59%)",
        "metric": "corn crop condition",
        "period": "last Monday",
        "source": "US (USDA)"
      },
      {
        "value": "23% harvested (vs 27% last year)",
        "metric": "corn harvest progress",
        "source": "US (USDA)"
      },
      {
        "value": "350,000 tons",
        "metric": "corn buying",
        "period": "past week",
        "source": "Mexico"
      },
      {
        "value": "5.44 million tons (vs 4.11 million last year)",
        "metric": "corn import pace",
        "source": "Europe"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.6 million tons",
        "metric": "new crop corn harvested",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "1.9 million tons (vs 0.9 million last year)",
        "metric": "corn exports",
        "source": "Ukraine"
      },
      {
        "value": "182.1 bushels per acre",
        "metric": "corn crop survey yield",
        "source": "StoneX US colleagues"
      },
      {
        "value": "177.7 (down from 178.5 last month)",
        "metric": "WASDE corn yield forecast",
        "period": "Friday",
        "source": "USDA"
      },
      {
        "value": "around 52.8",
        "metric": "WASDE soybean yield forecast",
        "period": "Friday",
        "source": "USDA"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video substantively discusses grain markets, including wheat, rapeseed, soybeans, and corn, along with relevant geopolitical and weather factors, as requested by the user."
  },
  "video_id": "-uvaJgcmIBs",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uvaJgcmIBs",
  "transcript": "Wheat has bounced back. Rapeseed is feeling the pressure. And Friday's USDA report could give traders more to react to. I'm Johanna Bota, and joining me to break it all down for us is Bertrand Oesterle, VP of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX. Welcome, Bert. Morning, Johanna. So, word on the street is that your clients are saying, I told you so. So, what have you gotten wrong? So, it's all about the wheat technicals. So, um, we have had quite a downturn recently, which we've spoken about last week. And we came to a point on the technicals where we had a convergence on Chicago wheat of the 100-day moving average with the lower Bollinger band. And about 90% of clients were saying, we're likely to have a bounce from here. And I was in the 10% and I'm still in the 10% camp saying, well, we could still see some pressure on the specs looking at, um, piece headlines on the recurring, um, issue, um, to go down to the 200-day moving average. So, basically 30 cents lower. And so far I've been wrong, but I'll keep my so far. Um, but then when we look at the, uh, technicals, it's also interesting to see what Paris is doing. Uh, Paris has got a gap on deck wheat from 243 and a quarter to 244. And when we look at the technicals for both Chicago and Paris this morning, the Chicago is at 47% RSI. It's dropping a bit. So, we're getting to the 50-day moving average. We're getting to the mid-Bollinger band, and we're finding resistance already. So, we're in a tight range. We might go sideways a little bit. And it's going to be interesting to see if that 50-day moving average, uh, sorry, that 50% RSI area is going to break up or give us pressure again. So, what do you think is behind that wheat bounce? So, there's a few elements. Uh, the first one, especially in Europe, is the euro weakness. Um, so we had mentioned that the euro had been between 114 and 120 for quite some time. The old figure that people had in mind was 112, but it stayed there for quite a long period of time, and we've gone back there. So, we've actually gone below 112 this week. We're around the 113 area currently. And it's providing support to Paris. It's making European exports potentially cheaper. And when we look at the tenders this week, they've been many and some big ones. So, for example, Pakistan has bought 180,000 tons of wheat compared to 185 tendered for. And we've got the big one, which is, uh, Saudi Arabia's GFSA, which came in to buy 683,000 tons for a tender for 535. And then yesterday we had a little bit of a surprise from LSA saying that one of the French export unions is saying that France has sold some 600,000 tons to Morocco in October alone. So, from the 1st to the 6th. So, a big figure again. Now, against that, uh, comes Turkey. Turkey is unlikely to come to the, uh, import just yet because they're planning to sell some 5.5 million tons of wheat stocks to the domestic market according to TMO. Okay, but that can't be the whole story. What about the Black Sea region? I mean, what's changed there in, how is it affecting supplies? So, the situation is still very volatile, and you're right, it comes on top of what I've just mentioned. Um, so yesterday, for example, a ship was hit next to the port of, um, Sochi. Sochi, exactly. Uh, so that's close to the Georgian, uh, border. So, again, it makes that Black Sea issue get wider. Uh, more importantly, we had two vessels hit in Bulgarian waters, creating, um, diplomatic routes. And, um, we continue to see port facilities or vessels hit in Odessa and obviously Kyiv being hit again. So, the situation is not improving, and it's actually widening in terms of the areas that are being hit in the Black Sea. Um, on top of it, the Russians are not reassuring anyone by saying that if Kaliningrad, which is their enclave, um, next to the Baltic States, onto the Baltic Sea, if Kaliningrad is at risk, they would use nuclear weapons. Um, and then, um, Putin came in to simply say no to the suggestion of not hitting targets in the Black Sea. Now, to get away from the war headlines, there's still some grains and oilseed data for Russia and Ukraine which are worth noting. So, when we look at the September exports for Russia, um, IKA is saying 2.4 or over 2.4 million tons. SovEcon is saying 2.4. And we had one odd figure from Interfax saying that they saw an estimate at 1.36 million tons. So, that seems very low, and I'm not quite sure who published that. Um, then when we look at, uh, Ukraine, we get some data from the Agricultural Ministry. So, they're telling us that the harvest just done is 26.1 million tons. Out of that, they've only exported some 2.897 million tons. That's way less than the 5.12 million tons at the same time last year. And when we look at the new crop, um, the planting is actually going quite quick. Uh, it was 31.4% last week. This week it's reached 49.6%. And the big question mark is when the Agricultural Ministry in Ukraine is saying, we might lose 17% of the area because of lack of funding. So, that's the bit that we're going to have to watch out for. Okay, so that's on wheat. Now, obviously your clients were right about that. And you were wrong. But you were right, you did warn us about, uh, well, a crowded exit in rapeseed. You talked about the cat flap last week. So, is that what we're seeing now? It's even worse than what we thought. So, the November-February spread in rapeseed has become an absolute bloodbath. Um, we were mentioning last week of the cat flap theory. So, the specs being very long, they were long 66.9 thousand lots last week. Um, we'll get an update today from, um, Euronext on the COT. And they've started to roll that position into February or exiting November alone. And we were saying, we think that that spread may hit all the way down to minus 30. We've actually hit minus 43 and a quarter today. So, a very deep, um, decline. carry and decline in this spread. And it is, uh, obviously showing that the specs are finding it difficult to get out. Um, they've got up to the 15th of October to probably do so because they have a tendency to roll their positions before option expiry, but they've got until the 30th when the contract expires. Um, what implication it has for the trade, it's either been a blessing or a disaster. Uh, a blessing for those who are short who have an opportunity to buy back their positions at such a discount. And those who were long similarly to the specs, having to scramble for an exit to try to get ahead of those specs and, um, feeling an awful lot of pain. Um, there is a new acronym. I'm probably going to say it wrong. Is it SBOC or SBOC? What does it mean and why are soybean buyers paying attention right now? So, there's been a lot of talk about the past week about, um, SBOC. I'll pronounce it that way. So, it's soybean of other color. So, it's, uh, something which is important in the US. So, we've heard of rain issues, mold issues. So, people are starting to look at those SBOCs and looking at potential quality concerns. Uh, when we look at the USDA figures, uh, from last Monday, uh, the crop is 57% good to excellent. It's lost 1% compared to the previous week. It's below the five-year average of 59%. Um, the crop is about a quarter harvested compared to 36% last year. So, there's been definitely some delay because of rain and some concern about quality. And the reason why people are starting to say that it could become important, it's because the Chinese have got a very specific spec. And that spec is 95% of a certain color, so yellow, and 5% deviation from that specific color. So, if the US have got a color issue, it could give an excuse to the Chinese at some point to simply either not buy or reject at, uh, destination port to say, well, we've tested your US soybean and it doesn't match the color pattern, take it back home. Um, so the initial reaction from the market was a little bit odd yesterday. We had a bid in the market. And it's similar to what we've seen in wheat previously, i.e., there's a concern about quality. People pay up to say, I'm going to pay up to get that quality. And then in the medium term, people realize that, why should they pay more for less quality? So, it's that odd reaction of bullish first and then potentially bearish after. Okay. Uh, now before you ask the question, China did not buy soybean over the past week. Um, there were some undisclosed flash sales that could have gone to China, but we haven't seen any firm soybean selling to China over the past week. Uh, but in a way, the US don't necessarily need it because the pace of exports is currently 9% ahead of what we need to get to, to, um, get to the USDA annual targets. So, it's quite comfortable in that sense. And in terms of crush, um, the USDA reported an August crush at 209.6 million bushels. It was less than the previous month, but it's still a record for August. And the last bit is the Middle East area. I was just going to ask you, what's going on there with the Houthis? So, the Houthis have, um, finally taken Mocha. So, we had mentioned Mocha about a few weeks ago. Um, that town is important because it's a stone's throw away from the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. So, if the Houthis were to take that strait, then suddenly it's an all-new issue for logistics as the Red Sea would be difficult. Okay, let's switch continents. Let's talk about South America. How is planting progressing there for soybeans? So, in Brazil, that's, that's all I've seen over the past week. Um, the Brazilian soybean crop is about 7.3% planted so far. It's lower now than the 9% last year. And the first reaction from the market was to say, oh, that's it. We, we started to plant quite quickly ahead of last year. Suddenly we're behind. Is it El Niño? And our take is that it's not quite yet El Niño in the sense that, um, it's due to, um, recent rains, but those rains are going to be beneficial for, um, crop, um, establishment in that sense. Yeah, I'm just going to stop you right there. We have a two-part series on El Niño, so if you want to watch it, please look through Bertrand's videos because they're right there and they will explain everything you need to know. Okay. My apologies. Continue. That's okay. Now, on, on Brazil, um, in terms of estimates, we've seen new record estimates also. Uh, so AgRural came in at 182.7 million tons, and we had, um, our colleagues, uh, in Brazil mentioning a 183.36 million ton crop. Um, and in terms of exports, we had the government mentioning that the September exports were at some 7.36 million tons, which is just over the 7.34 from last year, so very similar. Okay, so that's soybeans. Let's talk about corn now. How is the harvest and demand shaping up? So, in the US, the, uh, crop conditions on Monday were reported at 54% good to excellent. They've lost 2% from the previous week. They're also below the five-year average of 59%. Uh, the crop is about 23% harvested against 27% last year. Um, now, in terms of demand, we've seen some buying from Mexico over the past week, some 350,000 tons. But despite that, the US figures are way behind the pace that we expect them to be at in order to get to the USDA annual figures, some 7% lower. Um, then for Europe, the import pace is still strong. Uh, this is something that we've been mentioning for weeks, and we're currently at 5.44 million tons of imports compared to 4.11 at the same time last year. And then for Ukraine, we have about 1.6 million tons of the new crop harvested so far, and the, uh, exports are currently around about 1.9 million tons compared to 0.9 at the same time last year. Okay, before we let you go, I have one more thing. Obviously, we have the WASDE report coming out on Friday. What are you watching and where do you think we're going to get a surprise? So, the big figure is going to be the corn yield. And again, um, we got our hands slapped quite a few times over the past week. Uh, we had a crop survey, um, run by our US colleagues, which came in at 182.1 bushels per acre. And, um, this USDA report on Friday is expected to come in at 177.7, down from 178.5 last month. So, that figure is going to be very much in focus. Um, also what we will have in terms of yield in, uh, soybean, it's likely to be around the 52.8 mark. And, uh, the last bit is how much the USDA is going to take into account those Black Sea issues into the report. Um, and because we've got a report on Friday, we could have some funny games in terms of positions covering pre-report that could distort pricing over the next two days. Understood. Bert, thank you as always for all your insight. And thank you to our viewers for watching. Don't forget, there is a part two on El Niño with Bertrand here with me, um, coming out soon, so make sure you tune into that. And for more financial content, don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel.",
  "description": "Grain and oilseed markets rebound as a weaker euro supports European wheat exports, while crowded rapeseed positions strain spreads. \n\nBertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales, explains wheat, rapeseed and soybean trade pressures. \n\nBlack Sea attacks raise grain supply risks. Soybean color specifications raise questions for Chinese buyers, rain slows Brazil soybean planting and U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports put yields in focus. \n\n00:00 - Grain Rebound Meets Exit Pain \n01:57 - European Wheat Gets Euro Help \n03:15 - Black Sea Attacks Risk Supply \n05:42 - Rapeseed Spreads Crowded Exit \n07:28 - China Soybean Color Concerns \n10:33 - Brazil Planting Slows In Rain \n11:56 - Corn Harvest Meets Demand Gaps \n12:58 - WASDE Corn Yield And War Risks \n\nDiscover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/collections/all?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_bertrand_oesterle&utm_content=share \n\nLike and subscribe for more financial market insights. \n\n#Wheat #StoneX #BertrandOesterle #Soybeans",
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  "published_at": "2026-10-07T12:46:05Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/-uvaJgcmIBs/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-10-07",
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